APCEDI ALERT Bay of Bengal (BOB-02B), Cyclone Mala, #3, 2006: Cyclone Mala coming on-shore on Myanmar's Arakan Coast

The India Department of Meteorology and the Joint Typhoon Warning Centre are continuing to provide guidance and tracking information on Cyclone Mala in the Bay of Bengal.

Cyclone Mala is located off Mayanmar's Arakan Coast about 100 km southwest of Sandoway (Sandway). It increased in intensity overnight to a Category 4 Super Cyclone on the Saffir Simpson Scale. It is maintaining this strength and could possibly increase in intensity later today as it moves onshore.

Throughout the night the track of the cyclone has been further south than previously forecasted, so the main threat has shifted to the southern part of the Arakan Coast around the city of Sandoway (Sandway). Cyclone Mala is now the most intense cyclone in the Bay of Bengal since the 1999 Orissa Super Cyclone. The potential effects of a major Category 4 storm on the Arakan Coast could be devastating. Indian news media are covering the storm closely.

On the current forecast track, Cyclone Mala will slowly move onshore over Myanmar's southern Arakan Coast later today. This has the potential to cause extensive flooding in the Irriwady Basin as well as severe flash flooding in the Arakan Mountains and the coastal rivers of Rakine (Rohinga) State. The main port city of Sandoway (Sandway) is now at high risk and precautions should be in place. However, given the relatively closed nature of the situation in Myanmar, it is unknown what precautions are being put into place for this potentially severe emergency.

The Government of Thailand has issued a storm alert for the North and the Central Plains for a major rain event. Chiang Rai, Chiang Mai, Lampang, Tak, Uthai Thani and Kanchanaburi should be prepared for heavy downpours.

Cyclone Mala is now moving away from the Andaman Islands. However, northern regions continue to experience phenomenal seas and gales. The small Myanmar outliers of Coco and Preparis Islands would likewise be experiencing similar conditions.

All interests in Myanmar, Bangladesh, Thailand and the Andaman Islands should closely monitor the status of this severe cyclone. Major evacuations of low lying areas along the Arakan Coast will likely be needed imminently.

INDIAN DEPARTMENT OF METEOROLOGY
http://www.imd.gov.in/

VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM “MALA” ADVISORY NO. TWENTY SEVEN ISSUED AT 2100 UTC OF 28TH APRIL 2006 BASED ON 1800 UTC CHARTS OF 28TH APRIL 2006. THE VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM OVER EAST-CENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL MOVED SLIGHTLY NORTHEASTWARDS AND LAY CENTERED AT 1800 UTC NEAR LAT. 16.0 N AND LONG. 93.0 E ABOUT 500 KM NORTH OF PORTBLAIR. THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO INTENSIFY FURTHER AND MOVE IN A NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION TOWARDS ARAKAN COAST WITH A POSSIBLE LANDFALL SOUTH OF SANDWAY(48080) ARROUND 0600 UTC OF 29 APRIL. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLEAR EYE AND ASSOCIATED BANDING FEATURES. CURRENT INTENSITY IS T5.5 RPT T5.5. ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE 954 hPa. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS 100-110 KT GUSTING TO 120 KT AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE. STATE OF SEA WILL BE PHENOMENAL.

FORECAST INTENSITY T6.0 AFTER 12 HOURS.
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APCEDI will continue to monitor the progress of Cyclone Mala as it moves toward the Arakan Coast.

While APCEDI does not normally monitor cyclones in the Bay of Bengal, given AFAP's tsunami relief effort and that of many agencies in the region, APCEDI will continue to bring reports from this region, as warranted, for the next year or longer if needed.

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator
http://www.afap.org/apcedi/

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