APCEDI Alert SP/SI Cyclone Xavier #2-2007: Cyclone Xavier threatens Vanuatu

The RSMC-Nadi Tropical Cyclone Centre and the Joint Typhoon Warning Centre continue to issue advice on Cyclone Xavier that formed very quickly over Temotu Province earlier yesterday just east of the main Santa Cruz Islands.

Overnight Xavier has meandered slowly east of Utupua Island in the Santa Cruz Group. Reports from the Santa Cruz Group this morning indicated heavy rain and gales overnight and continuing particularly on Utupua and Vanikolo, but no major damage so far other than some branches and leaves down. Some crop damage and minor flooding are still possible into today.

Cyclone Xavier is approximately 100 km east of Utupua Island in the Santa Cruz Group moving in a east-southeasterly direction. On its current forecast trajectory, it will likely pass over or near to the Torres and Banks as a Category 1 storm on the Saffir Simpson Scale. All residents of Northern Vanuatu Islands especially the Torres and Banks Islands, Santi, Maewo and Ambae should rush cyclone preparations to completion, monitor and heed local Government alerts and listen to news broadcasts for updates.

Residents of the Santa Cruz Islands especially Utupua and Vanikolo should continue to be vigilant while the cyclone is in the area. Very rough seas will be present throughout the area for the next few days.

The forecast models for Cyclone Xavier are very mixed and contradictory at the moment. However there is increasing consolidation of data showing the storm heading into Northern Vanuatu during the day and gaining strength. All of Vanuatu should now be on a Cyclone Watch, with a Cyclone Warning for all Northern Islands, north of Epi and the Shepherd Islands. All concerns in Vanuatu should monitor and heed local Government alerts and listen to news broadcasts for updates.

Although the Cyclone is now moving away from the Solomon Islands. Rennell and Bellona, should remain on alert as the forecast track is still far from clear. Xavier will continue to generate rough seas for the area and for the weather coasts of Makira and Guadalcanal. All interests in the area should monitor and heed local Government alerts and listen to news broadcasts for updates as any northward chance in track could threaten these areas. Early season storms are notoriously difficult to predict.

CURRENT ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS

SOLOMON ISLANDS

Cyclone Warning for Temotu Province including all the Santa Cruz Islands.
Marine Warning for Temotu, Rennell and Bellona, Guadalcanal Weather Coast and Makira Weather Coast

VANUATU

Special Advisory/ Cyclone Warning for Torres and Banks Islands, Espirito Santo, Maewo, Ambae, Pentecost, Malakula, Ambrym and all surrounding smaller islands.
Special Advisory/ Cyclone Watch for all remaining areas of Vanuatu.
Maritime Warning for all of Vanuatu.

From the RSMC-Nadi Tropical Cyclone Centre

Special Advisory Number FOUR for Vanuatu on TC XAVIER issued from RSMC NADI
Oct 22/2058 UTC 2006 UTC.

Tropical Cyclone Xavier 01F [970hPa] centre was located near 11.0 South 167.8 East at 221800 UTC. Position poor based on MTSAT EIR imagery with animation. Cyclone intensifying. Cyclone moving east southeast at about 5 knots but expected curve west or southwest. Cyclone intensifying. Maximum 10-minute average winds near the centre estimated at about 65 knots, increasing to 75 knots in the next 12 hours.

Organisation continues to improve. Recent SSM/I passes indicate tight bands wrapping around a developing eye. Outflow good in all quadrants. Xavier is maintained in a low-shear environment. Dvorak analysis based on embedded centre yielding DT of 5.0. MET =4.0 and PT=4.5, thus T4.5/4.5/D2.0/24hrs based on Dvorak constraints. SST around 29 to 30C. Cyclone is expected to drift west-southwest nudged by a weak mid-level ridge to the east. Global models generally agree on a west or southwest track with further intensification.

FORECAST:
12hrs valid at 230600 UTC near 11.5S 167.1E mov SW 05kt with 75kt close to centre. 24hrs valid at 231800 UTC near 12.0S 166.6E mov SW 04kt with 80kt close to centre.

OUTLOOK:
36hrs valid at 240600 UTC near 12.3S 166.0E mov WSW 04kt with 90kt close to centre.
48hrs valid at 241800 UTC near 12.5S 165.4E mov WSW 03kt with 100kt close to centre.

On its current track the cyclone is expected to cause damaging gale force winds in the next 24 to 48 hours over the Torres and Banks Islands. If Xavier continues on a more southwest track, then northern parts of Espiritu Santo and Maewo are likely to experience damaging gale force winds in the next 24 to 48 hours. Expect frequent heavy rain and squally thunderstorms. Damaging heavy swells. Flooding including sea flooding of coastal areas of these islands.

The next Special Advisory for Vanuatu on Tropical Cyclone Xavier will be issued around 230200 UTC.

VANUATU: PLEASE ACKNOWLEDGE RECEIPT OF THIS MESSAGE.
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APCEDI will continue to issue further bulletins on Cyclone Xavier.

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator
http://www.afap.org/apcedi/

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