APCEDI Alert SP/Fj 15P Gene #2-2008: Cyclone Gene Moves Away from Fiji after Causing Widespread Minor Damage on Large Islands. Vanuatu Next.

The RSMC-Nadi Tropical Cyclone Centre, the Joint Typhoon Warning Centre continue to issue guidance on Tropical Cyclone Gene that is now moving away from the Fiji Islands and heading toward Vanuatu.

The centre of Cyclone Gene is located 100km west of Nadi on the main Fiji island of Viti Levu at 07 AM this morning Fiji time. Gene is moving to the west-northwest at 20 km/hr, and is intensifying slowly.

The current forecast map shows Gene moving away from Fiji and toward Vanuatu. At its current speed and forecast direction, it will close in on Vanuatu tonight and cross the country near Port Vila tomorrow.

Cyclone Gene is currently at borderline Tropical Storm/ Category 1 strength on the Saffir Simpson Scale. This equates to Category 2 on the Australia Scale. It will gradually increase in strength as it moves westward toward Vanuatu and should cross Vanuatu at Category 1 strength on the Saffir Simpson Scale, which equates to Category 2 on the Australia Scale.

Gene has caused widespread minor damage across both of the main Fiji islands of Viti Levu and Vanua Levu as well as Taveuni and the Yasawa and Mamanuca Groups and many other outliers near the big islands. Many tree are down and power is out to wide areas including Suva and Nadi. Widespread low-level crop and vegetation damage is also reported as well as superficial damage to some homes and buildings. However, the lower strength of the storm limited any severe or moderate damage. Power will likely be restored to most urban areas today.

At its current low strength, Gene will continue to cause widespread minor damage on the western side of Viti Levu and for the Yasawa and Mamanuca Groups as it moves away. Kadavu may also get some light damage.

A gale warning is in effect of the western half of Viti Levu, Vatulele, Kadavu, the Yasawa And the Mamanuca Group And Nearby Smaller Islands, and a strong wind warning remains in force for the rest of the Fiji Group. Vanuatu has now been put on Cyclone Alert as the storm approaches the country.

All residents and interests in western Fiji should monitor the storm carefully and follow all government advice as Cyclone Gene moves away. All residents and interests in Vanuatu should monitor the progress of the storm as it approaches and rush any cyclone preparations to completion as the Government issues advice.


ALERTS AND WARNINGS

FIJI

A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR THE WESTERN HALF OF VITI LEVU, VATULELE, YASAWA AND MAMANUCA GROUP AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS.

A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR THE REST OF THE FIJI GROUP.

VANUATU

A CYCLONE WATCH AND ALERT HAS BEEN RAISED FOR ALL OF VANUATU.
____________________

From the RSMC-Nadi Tropical Cyclone Centre


Fiji Advisory
Special Weather Bulletin Number SEVEN for Fiji ON TROPICAL CYCLONE
GENE
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI at 7:57am on Tuesday the 29th of January 2008

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.

A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR THE WESTERN HALF OF VITI LEVU, VATULELE, YASAWA AND MAMANUCA GROUP AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS.

A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR THE REST OF THE FIJI GROUP.

TROPICAL CYCLONE GENE CENTRE 985HPA, CATEGORY 2, WAS LOCATED NEAR 17 DECIMAL 6 SOUTH 176 DECIMAL 5 EAST ABOUT 100 KILOMETRES WEST OF NADI AT 7 AM THIS MORNING. THE CYCLONE HAS BECOME SLOW MOVING BUT EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST ABOUT 20 KM/HR IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS.

THE CYCLONE IS INTENSIFYING SLOWLY. CLOSE TO THE CENTRE THE CYCLONE IS ESTIMATED TO HAVE WINDS OF AVERAGE SPEEDS TO 95 KM/HR WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 150 KM/HR. DESTRUCTIVE STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO ABOUT 45 KILOMETRES FROM THE CENTRE AND DAMAGING GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED OUT TO 160 KM OF CENTRE IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND OUT TO 110 KM OF CENTRE IN THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

ON THIS TRACK THE CYCLONE CENTRE IS EXPECTED TO LIE ABOUT 160KM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF NADI AT 12 NOON TODAY AND ABOUT 290 KM WEST OF NADI AT 6PM TONIGHT.

FOR THE WESTERN HALF OF VITI LEVU, VATULELE, YASAWA AND MAMANUCA GROUP AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS, EXPECT DAMAGING GALE FORCE WINDS WITH AVERAGE SPEEDS OF 75 TO 85 KM/HR WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 140 KM/HR. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WITH SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. FLOODING INCLUDING SEA FLOODING OF LOW-LYING COASTAL AREAS EXPECTED.

FOR THE REST OF FIJI, STRONG NORTHWEST TO NORTHEAST WINDS WITH SPEEDS UPTO 60 KM/HR WITH GUSTS TO 100 KM/HR. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WITH SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS.

FOR ROTUMA, FRESH AND GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS. OCCASIONAL RAIN, HEAVY AT TIMES AND SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. ROUGH SEAS WITH A MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY SWELL.

The following information is provided especially for the mariners: EXPECT WINDS OF 50 KNOTS WITHIN 25 MILES OF CENTRE WITH VERY HIGH SEAS. WINDS OF 35 TO 45 KNOTS WITHIN 90 MILES OF CENTRE IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND 70 MILES OF CENTRE IN THE NORTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE. HIGH SEAS. DAMAGING HEAVY SWELLS.

FOR THE REST OF FIJI WATERS:
WINDS FROM THE NORTHWEST TO NORTHEAST 25 TO 30 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 55 KNOTS.
VERY ROUGH SEAS AND DAMAGING HEAVY SWELLS.

VERY POOR VISIBILITY IN HEAVY RAIN AND SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS.

THE NEXT SPECIAL WEATHER BULLETIN FOR FIJI ON TC GENE WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 11AM TODAY.

________________________

From the RSMC-Nadi Tropical Cyclone Centre

Vanuatu Advisory
Special Advisory Number ONE for Vanuatu on TC GENE ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Jan 28/2050 UTC 2008 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE 11F GENE CENTRE [985HPA] TROPICAL CYCLONE GENE CENTRE [985HPA] CAT 2 NEAR 17.6S 176.5E AT 281800 UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED ON MTSAT EIR IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE OBSERVATION. CYCLONE HAS BECOME SLOW MOVING BUT EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST ABOUT 10 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. CYCLONE
INTENSIFYING SLOWLY. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS ESTIMATED AT 50 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE INCREASING TO 60 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 18 HOURS. EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 25 MILES OF CENTRE. EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 90 MILES OF CENTRE IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND WITHIN 70 MILES ELSEWHERE.

ORGANISATION DECREASED SLIGHTLY DUE INTERACTION WITH VITI LEVU LANDMASS. CONVECTION WARMED PAST 6 HOURS AS A RESULT. OUTFLOW GOOD TO EAST AND DEVELOPING ELSEWHERE. CIMSS INDICATES MINIMAL SHEAR OVER CYCLONE. STEERING INFLUENCED BY DEEP-MEAN LAYER FLOW OVER AREA AND MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO SOUTHEAST. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON SHEAR WITH LLCC ABOUT 20NM INTO DG YIELDING DT=3.5, MET=3.0, PAT=3.5, THUS T3.5/3.5/D1.5/24HRS. CONSENSUS TRACKS THE CYCLONE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH SOME FURTHER INTENSIFICATION.

IF GENE MAINTAINS ITS CURRENT TRACK AND INTENSIFICATION TREND IT IS ANTICIPATED TO CAUSE DAMAGING GALE FORCE WINDS OR STRONGER OVER CENTRAL VANUATU IN THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS. CLOUD INCREASING WITH RAIN DEVELOPING AND BECOMING MORE FREQUENT IN THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS, WITH SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. SEA FLOODING OF LOW-LYING COASTAL AREAS. SEAS BECOMING ROUGH WITH HEAVY EASTERLY SWELLS.

FORECAST:
12HRS VALID AT 290600 UTC NEAR 18.2S 174.8E MOV WSW 10KT WITH 55KT CLOSE TO CENTRE.
24HRS VALID AT 291800 UTC NEAR 17.9S 172.4E MOV W 10KT WITH 60KT CLOSE TO CENTRE.

OUTLOOK:
36HRS VALID AT 300600 UTC NEAR 17.5S 170.2E MOV WNW 10KT WITH 65KT CLOSE TO CENTRE.
48HRS VALID AT 301800 UTC NEAR 17.3S 168.8E MOV W 07KT WITH 80KT CLOSE TO CENTRE.

THE NEXT SPECIAL ADVISORY FOR VANUATU ON TC GENE WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 290230 UTC

VANUATU MET PLEASE ACKNOWLEDGE RECEIPT OF THIS BULLETIN.

_________________________________
APCEDI will continue to monitor the progress of this system.

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator
http://www.afap.org/apcedi/

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