APCEDI Alert SP/WF 19P Tomas #4-2010: Cyclone Tomas Bears Down on Fiji's Cikobia, Eastern Vanua Levu, Taveuni and the Northern Lau Group

The RSMC-Nadi Tropical Cyclone Centre, and the Joint Typhoon Warning Centre are issuing guidance on Cyclone Tomas, a tropical cyclone that is bearing down on Northeastern Fiji areas of Cikobia, Eastern Vanua Levu, Taveuni and the Northern Lau Group

This centre of this system is currently located 70 kms northeast of Fiji's Cikobia Island or 100 km northeast of Udu Point on Vanua Levu. It is moving south at 5 knots. Maximum sustained winds are 100 kts making Tomas a Category 3 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale. Most models are forecasting Cyclone Tomas to continue to slowly increase in strength and maintain a southerly course over the next 24-48 hours across Fiji's Lau Group.

A Hurricane Warning is now in force for the Eastern Half of Vanua Levu, Cikobia, Taveuni, Rabi, Koa, Yacata, Koro, Vanua Balavu, Gau, Cicia, Batiki, Nairai, Wakaya, Lakeba, Kabara, Moala, Makogai and nearby smaller islands. A Storm Warning remains in force for the rest of Vanua Levu, Ovalau, Matuku, Totoya and nearby smaller islands. A Gale Warning remains in force for the rest of the Fiji Group.

On its forecast track, Category 3 Cyclone Tomas should pass 40 kms east of Cikobia and then over the Ringold Isles later today east of Vanua Levu and Rabi Islands. Then it will pass just east of Taveuni, Qamea and Laucala. By tomorrow it should cross near or over Yacata, Cicia, Moala and Totoya still as a Category 3 Cyclone on the Saffir-Simpson Scale. This is a very dangerous situation for Northern and Eastern Fiji, especially for islands directly hit by the eyewall.

The residents of Vanua Levu, Cikobia, Taveuni, the Northern Lau Group and all surrounding islands should monitor this cyclone carefully and rush cyclone preparations to completion. All other area of Fiji should monitor the storm carefully and follow Government advice as required.

Residents of Futuna should continue to monitor the storm as it moves away from the island. Futuna is reporting widespread light to moderate damage especially to trees and crops, and some pockets of moderate structural damage to homes, but no major structural damage or casualties have been reported.

Special Weather Bulletin Number SEVENTEEN for Fiji ON TROPICAL CYCLONE TOMAS
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI at 10:12am on Monday the 15th of March 2010

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR EASTERN HALF OF VANUA LEVU, CIKOBIA, TAVEUNI, RABI, KIOA, YACATA, KORO, VANUA BALAVU, GAU, CICIA, BATIKI, NAIRAI, WAKAYA, LAKEBA, KABARA, MOALA, MAKOGAI AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS.

A STORM WARNING REMAINS FORCE FOR THE REST OF VANUA LEVU, OVALAU, MATUKU,TOTOYA, AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS.

A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR THE REST OF THE FIJI GROUP.

SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE TOMAS CENTRE 930HPA CATEGORY 4 WAS LOCATED NEAR 15 DECIMAL 3 SOUTH 179 DECIMAL 4 WEST OR ABOUT 185 KM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF TAVEUNI OR 390 KM NORTHEAST OF SUVA AT 10AM TODAY. CLOSE TO ITS CENTRE THE CYCLONE IS ESTIMATED TO HAVE AVERAGE WINDS OF 175 KM/HR INCREASING TO 205 KM/HR IN THE NEXT 18 TO 24 HOURS WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS UP TO 270 KM/HR . THE CYCLONE IS INTENSIFYING AND MOVING SOUTH AT 09 KM/HR.

ON THIS TRACK, THE CYCLONE CENTRE IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED ABOUT 65 KM NORTHEAST OF TAVEUNI OR 290KM NORTHEAST OF SUVA AT 10PM TONIGHT AND ABOUT 100KM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF TAVEUNI OR 215KM EAST-NORTHEAST OF SUVA AT 10AM TOMORROW MORNING.


EASTERN HALF OF VANUA LEVU, CIKOBIA, TAVEUNI, RABI, KIOA, YACATA, KORO, VANUA BALAVU, GAU, CICIA, BATIKI, NAIRAI, WAKAYA, LAKEBA, KABARA, MOALA, MAKOGAI AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS : WINDS INCREASING TO VERY DESTRUCTIVE HURRICANE FORCE WITH AVERAGE SPEEDS OF 170 KM/HR WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 230 KM/HR. FREQUENT HEAVY RAIN AND SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. PHENOMINAL SEAS. DAMAGING HEAVY SWELLS. FLOODING INCLUDING FLOODING OF LOW-LYING COASTAL AREAS.

FOR THE REST OF VANUA LEVU, OVALAU, MATUKU,TOTOYA, AND NEARBY SMALLERISLANDS : WINDS INCREASING TO DESTRUCTIVE STORM FORCE WITH AVERAGE SPEEDS OF 90KM/HR WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS 130 KM/HR. FREQUENT HEAVY RAIN AND SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. VERY HIGH SEAS. DAMAGING HEAVY SWELLS. FLOODING INCLUDING FLOODING OF LOW-LYING COASTAL AREAS.

FOR THE REST OF FIJI : WINDS INCREASING TO DAMAGING GALE FORCE WITH AVERAGE SPEEDS UP TO 75 KM/HR AND MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 110 KM/HR. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS. DAMAGING HEAVY SWELLS. FLOODING INCLUDING SEA FLOODING OF LOW-LYING COASTAL AREAS EXPECTED.

The following information is provided especially for the mariners: HURRICANE FORCE WINDS WITHIN 40 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE WITH PHENOMINAL SEAS. STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE WITH VERY HIGH SEAS. GALE FORCE WINDS WITHIN 150 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE WITH HIGH SEAS. STRONG WINDS OUTSIDE 150 MILES OF CENTER. VERY ROUGH SEAS. DAMAGING HEAVY SWELLS.

THE NEXT SPECIAL WEATHER BULLETIN FOR FIJI ON TC TOMAS WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 3PM TODAY OR EARLIER.

APCEDI will continue to monitor the progress of this system.

Please go to http://apcedi.blogspot.com// for the complete interactive alert on Cyclone Tomas.
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Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator

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