APCEDI Alert SP/SI Cyclone Xavier #4-2007: Cyclone Xavier Strengthens East of Banks Islands

The RSMC-Nadi Tropical Cyclone Centre and the Joint Typhoon Warning Centre continue to issue advice on Cyclone Xavier now located about 20 km northwest of Tikopia, Temotu Province, Solomon Islands.

Overnight, Cyclone Xavier passed over Tikopia and is now located approximately 150 km northeast of Mota Lava in the Banks Islands still moving in a south-southeast direction A small tightly wound eye is evident as the storm continues to slowly strengthen. Xavier is now a Category 2-3 storm on the Saffir Simpson Scale. It is forecast to strengthen into a powerful Category 3 storm later today. Xavier is now quite powerful and should the forecast westward turn eventuate, this will bring the storm over Vanuatu with a force capable of producing strong to locally severe damage in and near the eyewall.

All residents of Northern Vanuatu Islands especially the Torres and Banks Islands, Santo, Maewo, Ambae, Ambrym, Epi and the Shepherd Islands should rush cyclone preparations to completion, monitor and heed local Government alerts and listen to news broadcasts for updates.

The forecast models for Cyclone Xavier continue to be very mixed and contradictory at the moment with rather weak steering currents. Data has indicated a westward turn for nearly 24 hours, but that has not occurred yet bringing increasing risk eastward and southwards towards Banks Islands, Maewo, Ambae and Pentecost. Until and if the western turn eventuates, it will be hard to determine its path across Northern Vanuatu. The most recent models showing it passing over Maewo, Ambae and then between Santo and Malakula tomorrow as a Category 3 storm. However, there is increasing divergence about the timing of this western turn.

All of Vanuatu should remain on a Cyclone Watch, with a Cyclone Warning for all Northern Islands, north of Afate. All concerns in Vanuatu should monitor and heed local Government alerts and listen to news broadcasts for updates.

Although the Cyclone is now moving away from the Solomon Islands and the Santa Cruz Group, authorities should remain on alert.. Xavier will continue to generate rough seas for Temotu Province, Rennell and Bellona, and for the weather coasts of Makira and Guadalcanal. All interests in the area should monitor and heed local Government alerts and listen to news broadcasts for updates as any northward chance in track could threaten these areas. Early season storms are notoriously Very rough seas will be present throughout the area for the next few days.

CURRENT ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS

VANUATU

Special Advisory/ Cyclone Warning for Torres and Banks Islands, Espirito Santo, Maewo, Ambae, Pentecost, Malakula, Ambrym, Epi and the Shepherd Islands and all surrounding smaller islands.
Special Advisory/ Cyclone Watch for all remaining areas of Vanuatu.
Maritime Warning for Rough Seas for all of Vanuatu.

SOLOMON ISLANDS

Maritime Warning for Rough Seas for Temotu, Rennell and Bellona, Guadalcanal Weather Coast and Makira Weather Coast


From the RSMC-Nadi Tropical Cyclone Centre

Special Advisory Number EIGHT for Vanuatu on TC XAVIER issued from RSMC NADI
Oct 23/1950 UTC 2006 UTC.

Tropical Cyclone Xavier 01F [945hPa] centre was located near 12.7 South 168.6 East at 231800 UTC. Position good based on MTSAT EIR imagery with animation. Cyclone intensifying. Cyclone moving south-southeast at about 5 knots but expected to curve southwest in the next 24 hours. Maximum 10-minute average winds near the centre estimated at about 85 knots, increasing to 95 knots in the next 12 to 24 hours.

Organisation generally steady with cold convective tops surrounding the eye. Convective bands tightly wrapping around LLCC. Outflow good in all quadrants. Some shear still evident. Dvorak analysis based on B eye embedded in W surround gives a DT=5.0, MET=5.5, PT=5.0, thus T5.5/5.5/D1.0/24hrs. SST around 29 to 30C. Cyclone moving south-southeast under a weak northwest flow but expected to turn southwest in the next 24 hours as a mid-level ridge to east establishes. Global models generally agree on a gradual curvature towards southwest in the next 24 hours with further intensification for at least the next 36 hours before weakening.

FORECAST:
12hrs valid at 240600 UTC near 13.2S 168.9E mov S 05kt with 85kt close to centre.
24hrs valid at 241800 UTC near 13.8S 168.7E mov SSW 03kt with 95kt close to centre.

OUTLOOK:
36hrs valid at 250600 UTC near 14.3S 167.6E mov SW 05kt with 95kt close to centre.
48hrs valid at 251800 UTC near 15.1S 166.7E mov SW 08kt with 95kt close to centre.

On its current track the cyclone may cause destructive storm force winds or stronger during the next 24 to 36 hours over the Banks Islands and Maewo and damaging gales over Torres islands, Espiritu Santo, Aoba, Pentecost, Malekula and Ambrym. Expect frequent heavy rain and squally thunderstorms. Damaging heavy swells. Flooding including sea flooding of low-lying coastal areas expected.

The next Special Advisory for Vanuatu on Tropical Cyclone Xavier will be issued around 240200 UTC.
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APCEDI will continue to issue further bulletins on Cyclone Xavier.

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator

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