APCEDI Alert SP/SI Cyclone Xavier #6-2007: Cyclone Xavier Weakens East of Vanuatu

The RSMC-Nadi Tropical Cyclone Centre and the Joint Typhoon Warning Centre are winding down their advice on Cyclone Xavier, which is now located approximately 200 km east of Maewo and Pentecost.

Overnight, Cyclone Xavier weakened rapidly due to increased shear and lower water temperatures. It is now a weak tropical storm and will likely be downgraded to a tropical depression later today. This continues to be good news for Vanuatu, as it looks likely to miss the major effects of this once powerful cyclone. However, Xavier is still causing rough seas, beach erosion and intermittent squalls especially to eastern islands and east and south-facing coasts.

Forecasters continue to predict a western turn for the storm, and it has in fact started a slow southwesterly turn. This will bring the remnants of Xavier over Northern and Central Vanuatu. This will cause localised heavy rain and squalls, but no major damage is now being forecast although localised flooding and landslides are still possible in areas with intense rainfall.

Even though the storm is weakening residents of Northern and Central Vanuatu Islands especially Santo, Maewo, Ambae, Ambrym, Epi, the Shepherd Islands, and Efate should continue to monitor and heed local Government alerts and listen to news broadcasts for updates. It is possible, although unlikely, that the storm could re-intensify.

CURRENT ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS

VANUATU
Maritime Warning for Rough Seas for all of Vanuatu.

From the RSMC-Nadi Tropical Cyclone Centre

RSMC NADI
Oct 25/1958 UTC 2006 UTC.

Tropical Cyclone Xavier 01F [987hPa] centre was located near 16.0 South 171.0 East at 251800 UTC. Position poor based on MTSAT EIR with animation and recent TRMM/SSMI passes. Cyclone moving southwest at about 05 knots but expected to curve west. Maximum 10-minute average winds near the centre estimated at about 45 knots, decreasing to 30 knots in the next 12 hours.

Xavier has weakened rapidly under strengthening shear past 6 hours. Exposed llcc with convection sheared eastwards about 2 degrees. Dvorak analysis based on sheared pattern yielding a DT=1.5, MET=3.0 and PT=1.5, thus T2.5/3.0/W2.5/24hrs based on Dvorak constraints. Cyclone is gradually turning westwards. Available global models generally agree with further weakening.

FORECAST:
12hrs valid at 260600 UTC near 15.7S 170.1E mov W 05kt with 30kt close to centre.
24hrs valid at 261800 UTC near 15.9S 168.8E mov W 06kt with 20kt close to centre.

OUTLOOK:
36hrs valid at 270600 UTC near 15.5S 167.2E mov W 08kt with 15kt close to centre.
48hrs valid at 271800 UTC near 15.2S 165.7E mov W 07kt with 15kt close to centre.

On its projected track the cyclone is expected to weaken into a depression in the next 6 to 12 hours and is no longer posing a threat to Efate, Erromango and Tanna. A building high pressure system to the south of Vanuatu and New Caledonia is expected to steer the weakening depression westwards over Vanuatu in the next 24 to 36 hours. Expect rain with occasional heavy falls to continue. Fresh to strong and gusty east to southeast winds. Rough to very rough seas and damaging heavy swells.

This will be the final Special Advisory for Vanuatu on Tropical Cyclone Xavier unless the situation changes.

____________________

This will be the last APCEDI report in Cyclone Xavier unless it re-intensifies or otherwise warrents additional information to be reported.


Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator

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