APCEDI Alert SP/CI 09P Arthur #2-2007: Cyclone Arthur passing between Southern Cooks and Western French Polynesia

The RSMC-Nadi Tropical Cyclone Centre, the Joint Typhoon Warning Centre and Meteo France continue to issue guidance on Cyclone Arthur that is currently passing between the Southern Cooks and French Polynesia's Leeward Islands (Iles's sous le Vent).

Cyclone Arthur is now located roughly equidistant on a line from Rarotonga, Cook Islands to Tahiti, French Polynesia (600 km southwest of Tahiti). It will pass into the Northern Austral Group of French Polynesia roughly on the same path of Cyclone Zita earlier this week.

This will bring Arthur close to Rurutu and Rimatara. Cyclone Zita earlier this week caused some localised light damage on Rurutu and Rimatara including several trees uprooted and flooding along coastal roads. It is likely that Arthur will cause similar light damage and localised coastal flooding and erosion especially in areas made more vulnerable by Cyclone Zita.

Cyclone has peaked at strong Tropical Storm strength on the Saffir Simpson Scale and will be slowly decreasing as the storm moves into areas of colder sea surface temperatures and increased sheer.

All interests in Western French Polynesia should continue to be on alert, monitor the situation with Cyclone Arthur and heed any warnings issued by local authorities as the situation develops. Only localised light damage, mostly from beach erosion, has been reported from the Cook Islands, and now that the cyclone is moving away, little more damage is expected. Although small craft in eastern islands of the South Cooks should remain in port due to very rough seas.


From the RSMC-Nadi Tropical Cyclone Centre

Special Weather Bulletin Number NINE for Southern Cooks ON TROPICAL
CYCLONE ARTHUR
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Jan 25/1729 UTC 2007 UTC.
STRONG WIND WARNING

A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT IS NOW CANCELLED FOR MAUKE AND MITIARO. A
STRONG WIND WARNING IS IN FORCE FOR THE SOUTHERN COOKS.

TROPICAL CYCLONE ARTHUR [990HPA] CENTRE WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.3 DEGREES SOUTH 155.4 DEGREES WEST OR ABOUT 265 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF AITUTAKI OR ABOUT 205 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF MAUKE AT 251700 UTC. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT 40 KNOTS WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 55 KNOTS. ARTHUR IS CURRENTLY MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 12 KNOTS AND CONTINUES TO WEAKEN WHILST TURNING TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST.

ON THIS TRACK, THE CYCLONE CENTRE IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED ABOUT 275 MILES TO THE EAST OF AITUTAKI OR 150 MILES TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST OF MAUKE BY 260000 UTC AND ABOUT 275 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MAUKE OR 295 MILES EAST OF MANGAIA BY 261200 UTC.

MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS, POSSIBLY FRESH AND GUSTY AT TIMES ABOUT MAUKE AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS. FOR MAUKE AND NEARBY SMALLERS ISLANDS EXPECT CLOUDY PERIODS WITH A FEW SHOWERS, CLEARING LATER TODAY. ELSEWHERE FINE WEATHER. MODERATE SEAS POSSIBLY ROUGH NEAR AND EAST OF MAUKE. DAMAGING HEAVY SWELL. FLOODING INCLUDING FLOODING OF LOW-LYING COASTAL AREAS STILL LIKELY.

PLEASE ACKNOWLEDGE RECEIPT OF THIS BULLETIN.

THIS IS THE FINAL SPECIAL WEATHER BULLETIN FOR THE SOUTHERN COOKS. THE NEXT WEATHER BULLETIN WILL BE THE ROUTINE BULLETIN ISSUED AT 252345 UTC.

Current Headlines from Tahiti Presse

French Polynesia's 2nd tropical cyclone in less than a week losing strength en route towards southernmost Austral Islands

(Tahitipresse) - Arthur, French Polynesia's second strong tropical cyclone in less than a week, was losing strength early Thursday as it continued its path southward well west of the Leeward Islands and towards the southernmost Austral Islands, Météo France confirmed.

The French meteorological service also confirmed that contrary to a forecast Wednesday afternoon, Arthur did not become a full-fledged cyclone overnight.

At 2 am Tahiti time Thursday, Arthur was located 500 kilometers (nearly 311 miles) west of Bora Bora in the Leeward Islands, heading southeast away from this island group at 40 kph (nearly 25 mph), Météo France said.

The Météo France forecast for the Leeward Islands - Huahine, Raiatea, Taha'a, Bora Bora and Maupiti - called for variable weather conditions with some sunshine and cloudy skies accompanied by showers or squalls. These islands are located between 150 and 300 kms (93-186 miles) northwest of Tahiti.

Leeward Islands due for worsening weather Friday

The Leeward Islands weather is expected to clearly become worse Friday (Jan. 26) with frequent showers and squalls and heavy rain, Météo France said. Winds will be moderate from the north to northwest with gusts up to 60-70 kph (37-43 mph) in the squalls. Seas will be rough with swells from the northwest two to three meters (2.5-nearly 10 ft.) high.

For the Windward Islands of Tahiti and Moorea, Météo France's 5:15 am forecast Thursday called for frequently cloudy skies with occasional showers and squalls alternating with periods of sunshine. Improved weather conditions were forecast for Friday afternoon.

Météo France forecast worsening weather conditions in the northern Austral Islands with heavily clouded skies, showers and squalls and isolated heavy rain.

Arthur expected to be downgraded to moderate storm Thursday night

Arthur is forecast to become a moderate tropical cyclone by Thursday night as it approaches Rurutu and Rimatara in the northern Austral Islands, Météo France said. For Rapa, there will be moderate winds from the northeast with gusts from 70-80 kph (43.5-50 mph) during the day Thursday. For Rurutu and Rimatara, winds are expected to reach 120 kph (74.5 mph) Thursday night.

While French meteorologists use the term tropical depression, their English-speaking counterparts use the term tropical cyclone. Although the terminology is different, the wind speeds determining the category for each storm are the same.

Different terms in French & English, but same wind speed factors

A moderate tropical depression in French and a moderate tropical cyclone in English involve maximum wind speeds at the center of less than 62-89 kph (38.5-55 mph). A strong tropical depression in French and a strong tropical cyclone in English involve maximum wind speeds at the center of 89-117 kph (55 to nearly 73 mph). A full-fledged cyclone in French and a cyclone in English involve wind speeds at the center of more than 118 kph (73 mph).

French Polynesia has not experienced a full-fledged cyclone since Kim hit the Leeward Islands in February 2000, according to Météo France.

Arthur is following almost the same path through the far western limits of French Polynesia on its way to the Austral Islands as Zita did earlier in the week. These are the first tropical depressions (tropical cyclones) since December 2004 when Judy passed through the central Tuamotu Archipelago in the area of the tiny atoll of Hereheretue, which is 500 km (310 miles) southeast of Tahiti.

While French Polynesia is escaping the brunt of the latest storm, Arthur, the tropical cyclone battered the southern Cook Islands on Wednesday, according to the Radio New Zealand International Internet Web site.

The municipal government on Rurutu reported only minor damage from Zita, French language daily newspaper Les Nouvelles de Tahiti reported on Thursday.

From Meteo France

PREVISIONS ETABLIES PAR METEO FRANCE LE 24 JANVIER 2007 A 17h42 LOCALES

PRÉVISION GÉNÉRALE PAR ARCHIPEL VALABLE JUSQU'À VENDREDI

ILES SOUS LE VENT :
Le temps reste variable avec éclaircies et passages nuageux accompagnés d'averses ou de grains. Le temps s'aggrave nettement vendredi avec des averses et grains fréquents. Les précipitations sont parfois de forte intensité. Vent modéré de nord à nord-ouest avec rafales à 60/70 km/h sous grains. Mer agitée. Houle de nord-ouest de 2/3m s'amortissant rapidement.

TAHITI ET MOOREA :
Le ciel est souvent très nuageux. Des passages d'averses accompagnés de grains alternent avec quelques périodes d'éclaircies. Les précipitations sont parfois de forte intensité au cours de cette nuit et dans la nuit de jeudi à vendredi sur les côtes nord et est. L'amélioration est attendue pour vendredi après-midi. Vent modéré de nord à nord-ouest, parfois assez fort sous les grains avec quelques rafales à 60/70 km/h. Mer agitée. Houle de nord-ouest de 1.50/2m. Températures extrêmes prévues : 26°C et 29°C.

MARQUISES :
Ciel peu à passagèrement nuageux avec quelques ondées sur la moitié sud de l'archipel. Vent de nord-est modéré. Mer agitée. Houle de secteur nord de 1m50.

TUAMOTU ET GAMBIER :
Temps nuageux à très nuageux. Averses et grains sont fréquents vers Rangiroa, Tikehau, Mataiva et Makatea et isolées sur le reste des Tuamotu et aux Gambier.
Vent modéré de nord au Nord Tuamotu à nord-est sur le reste de l'archipel avec des pointes à 50/60 km/h sous grains.Mer agitée. Houle de nord-ouest de 1m à 1m50 sur la moitié nord et houle de sud de 1m50 sur la moitié sud de l'archipel.

AUSTRALES :
Peu nuageux vers Rurutu et Rimatara, et très nuageux vers Tubuai et Raivavae.
Nouvelle aggravation attendue demain vers Tubuai et Raivavae, et en soirée vers Rimatara et Rurutu. A Rapa, le ciel reste très nuageux à couvert avec quelques grains isolés.Au Nord, vent de nord à nord-ouest modéré, puis assez fort à fort en soirée.
A Rapa, de nord-est modéré. Rafales 70/80 k/h et jusqu'à 120K/h vers Rurutu et Rimatara. Vers Rurutu et Rimatara, mer devenant très forte demain soir avec des creux de 4 à 6m. Ailleurs, mer agitée à forte Houle de nord-ouest 2m croisée avec une houle de sud de 1m50/2m.

COMPLEMENT POUR LA PECHE ET LA NAVIGATION DE PLAISANCE DANS LE TRIANGLE TAHITI MAUPITI MANIHI :
Pas de BMS en cours ni prévu sur la zone.Vent 4/5Bf de nord à nord-ouest jusqu'à 6Bf aux îles sous le vent demain. Rafales à 30/35Kt sous grains. Mer agitée. Houle de nord-ouest de 2 à 3m vers les îles sous le vent et 1m50 à 2m sur les îles du vent et vers Manihi.

________________________
APCEDI will continue to monitor the progress of this system

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator
http://www.afap.org/apcedi/

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