APCEDI Alert SP/SI 02P (04F) #1-2007: Tropical Depression 02P: Cyclone forming South of Makira in Solomon Islands

The RSMC-Nadi Tropical Cyclone Centre and the Joint Typhoon Warning Centre have started issuing guidance on Tropical Depression 02P that has been strengthening and meandering south of Makira.

Unnamed Tropical Depression 02P (04F) is currently centred 150 km southeast of Makira or 200 km east of Bellona. It is moving very slowly southeast with a forecast shift to the south and southwest, but continued slow meandering is likely in the next 12-24 hours and slowly strengthen.

At this point no land areas are immediately threatened, and the storm is still small. However, all interests in Makira, Guadalcanal, Rennell and Bellona should pay close attention to this storm and be ready to make any preparations should conditions warrant and authorities advise. Seas in the area are becoming rough and local boating interests should stay advised. All interests in Northern Vanuatu should also monitor this storm.

From the RSMC-Nadi Tropical Cyclone Centre

Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A1 issued from RSMC NADI
Nov 21/2348 UTC 2006 UTC.

Corrected version..Dvorak included.
Tropical Depression 04F [997hPa] centre was located near 12.0S 162.1E at 212100 UTC moving southeast about 3 knots. Position fair based on HRES MTSAT VIS and EIR imageries with animation. Maximum 10-minute average winds estimated at 30 knots within 120 miles of centre in the southern semicircle possibly increasing to 35 knots in the next 12 hours.

Overall organisation increased significantly past 12 hours. Convection erupted last night with tops cooling markedly. The two primary bands have now virtually merged into one and wrapping around the llcc. However, some warming observed past 4 hours and appears to continue. Dvorak based on curved band wrap of 0.4 on log10 spiral thus T2.5/2.5/D1.5/24hrs. 04F is located just south of a 250hPa ridge axis in a region of 5-10kt shear.SST around 28-29C. Depression expected to drift slowly southeast further before turning southwest under a north to northeast steering regime. Potential for 04F to develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 12 to 24 hours is high.

The next Tropical Disturbance Advisory on TD04F will be issued around
220200 UTC.
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APCEDI will continue to issue further bulletins on Tropical Depression 02P (04F) as the need arises.

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator

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