APCEDI Alert SP/SI 04P (05F) #2-2007: Tropical Depression 02P: Tropical Depression moving toward Northern Vanuatu

The RSMC-Nadi Tropical Cyclone Centre and the Joint Typhoon Warning Centre continue to issue guidance on Tropical Depression 04P (05F) that has been moving between Eastern Solomons and Northern Vanuatu.

The Solomon Islands Meteorological Service's Cyclone Website has discontinued its guidance as the system moves south away from the Solomons.

The centre of Unnamed Tropical Depression 04P (05F) is diffuse but currently lies about 200 km west of the Torres Islands of Vanuatu. The system has failed to strengthen into a full-fledged cyclone in the last 24 hours due to increased sheer as it moved south. It continues moving slowly southeast and associated rain, gales and rough seas will effect the Torres and Banks Islands as well as Espiritu Santo and Malakula Islands in Northern Vanuatu. Given the small size of the storm, little damage is expected although flash floods in mountain areas from heavy rains are possible as the system passes near Espiritu Santo and Malakula.

All interests in Northern Vanuatu should pay close attention to this storm and be ready to make any preparations should conditions warrant and authorities advise over Radio Vanuatu. Seas in the area are becoming rough and local boating interests should stay advised. All interests in Central and Southern Vanuatu should also monitor this storm over the next few days.


From the RSMC-Nadi Tropical Cyclone Centre
Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A5 issued from RSMC NADI
Dec 01/2144 UTC 2006 UTC.

Tropical Depression 05F [999hPa] centre was re-located near 12.3S 164.6E at 012100 UTC. Position fair based on HRES MTSAT EIR/VIS imagery with animation and 01/1855UTC SSM/I data. Depression moving south-southeast about 06 knots. Maximum 10-minute average winds estimated at 30 to 35 knots in the sectors from east through south to south-southwest within 30 to 120 miles of centre.

Organisation steady past 12 hours. Cold tops sheared to southeast. Low-level cloud lines exposed to north and west. Outflow good to south but restricted elsewhere. Dvorak based on shear pattern with llcc sheared about 30nm from deep convection. This yields a DT=2.5/3.0. MET and PAT agree at 2.5. Final T=2.5, thus T2.5/2.5/D0.5/24hrs. 05F continues to move into area of stronger shear. Depression currently lies well south of a 250hPa ridge axis in a divergent region. SST around 29 to 30 degrees Celsius. 05F expected to be gradually steered south and then southwest under a northeast steering field. Global models that have captured the system generally move the system initially south then west with little development. Potential for TD05F to develop into a tropical cyclone in the next in the next 24 hours is low to moderate.

The next Tropical Disturbance Advisory on TD 05F will be issued around 020200 UTC unless it dissipates before then.
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APCEDI will continue to issue further bulletins on Tropical Depression 04P (05F) as the need arises.

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator

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