AFAP manages the Australian-Pacific Centre for Emergency and Disaster Information (APCEDI) to provide news on natural disaster events in the Asia-Pacific region and to help with rapid disaster response assessment. This was originally a communications network that was activated during a disaster to disseminate information to our Asia-Pacific NGO offices. Now APCEDI has a much wider application across the Asia-Pacific Region.

Friday, December 01, 2006

APCEDI Alert SP/SI 04P (05F) #1-2007: Tropical Depression 02P: Cyclone forming East of Malaita in Solomon Islands

The RSMC-Nadi Tropical Cyclone Centre and the Joint Typhoon Warning Centre have started issuing guidance on Tropical Depression 04P (05F) that has been strengthening and meandering east of Malaita.

The Solomon Islands Meteorological Service's Cyclone Website is also issuing guidance. They have issued a Tropical Disturbance Watch for Malaita, Makira, Sikaiana Atoll (Stewart Islands), Ulawa, Reef, Duff and Santa Cruz Groups.

Unnamed Tropical Depression 04P (05F) is currently centred 300 km east of Malaita or 140 km southeast of the Sikaiana Atoll (Stewart Islands). It is moving very slowly southeast mostly in a westerly direction, but continued slow meandering is likely in the next 12-24 hours with slow strengthening.

At this point no land areas are immediately threatened, and the storm is still small. However, all interests in Malaita, Makira, Guadalcanal, Sikaiana Atoll (Stewart Islands, Ulawa, Reef, Duff and Santa Cruz Group should pay close attention to this storm and be ready to make any preparations should conditions warrant and authorities advise over SIBC. Seas in the area are becoming rough and local boating interests should stay advised. All interests in Rennell and Bellona and in Northern Vanuatu should also monitor this storm over the next few days.

From the RSMC-Nadi Tropical Cyclone Centre

Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A3 issued from RSMC NADI
Nov 30/1957 UTC 2006 UTC.

Tropical Depression 05F [998hPa] centre was located near 9.0S 162.8E at 301800 UTC. Position poor based on HRES MTSAT EIR imagery with animation. Depression moving west-southwest about 05 knots. Maximum 10-minute average winds estimated at 30 knots within 100 miles of centre in the northeastern semicircle and 60 miles in the
southwestern semicircle possibly increasing to 35 knots in the next 24 hours.

Organisation gradually evolving with a primary band to east wrapping into LLCC. Tops have warmed slightly past 6 hours, though. Outflow good in all quadrants. Dvorak based on curved band wrap of 0.4 on log10 spiral with DT=2.5. MET and PAT agree at 2.5. Final T=2.5, thus T2.5/2.5/D1.0/24hrs. Latest CIMSS shows increasing shear to south of the depression. 05F currently lies just south of a 250hPa ridge axis. SST around 29 to 30 degrees Celsius. 05F expected to be steered initially southward under a weak northerly steering field. Global models that have captured the system generally move the system south with gradual deeepening. Potential for TD05F to develop into a tropical cyclone in the next in the next 24 hours is moderate to high.

The next Tropical Disturbance Advisory on TD 05F will be issued around 010200 UTC.

APCEDI will continue to issue further bulletins on Tropical Depression 02P (04F) as the need arises.

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator

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