APCEDI Alert SP/Fj 15P Gene #3-2008: Cyclone Gene Moves Toward Vanuatu After Causing Widespread Minor Damage in Fiji

The RSMC-Nadi Tropical Cyclone Centre, the Joint Typhoon Warning Centre continue to issue guidance on Tropical Cyclone Gene that is now heading toward Vanuatu.

The centre of Cyclone Gene is located 240 km west-southwest of Nadi on the main Fiji island of Viti Levu at 09 PM this evening Fiji time. Gene is moving to the southwest at 15 km/hr, and should hold its current strength as it approaches Vanuatu, but could very slightly intensify or weaken due to conditions later tomorrow.

The current forecast map shows Gene continuing to moving away from Fiji and toward Central and Southern Vanuatu. At its current speed and forecast direction, it will close in on Central and Southern Vanuatu tomorrow and cross the country near somewhere between Efate and and the southernmost island of Anatom tomorrow afternoon probably close to the island of Tanna.

Cyclone Gene is currently at borderline Tropical Storm/ Category 1 strength on the Saffir Simpson Scale. This equates to Category 2 on the Australia Scale. It will gradually increase in strength as it moves westward toward Vanuatu and should cross Vanuatu at Category 1 strength on the Saffir Simpson Scale, which equates to Category 2 on the Australia Scale.

Gene has caused widespread minor damage across both of the main Fiji islands of Viti Levu and Vanua Levu as well as Taveuni and the Yasawa and Mamanuca Groups and many other outliers near the big islands. Many tree are down and power was temporarily cut to wide areas including Suva and Nadi. Widespread low-level crop and vegetation damage is also reported as well as superficial damage to some homes and buildings. However, the lower strength of the storm limited any severe or moderate damage. Power has been already restored in Many areas today and this evening as the effects of the storm diminish as Gene moves away from Fiji..

A gale warning that was in effect of the western half of Viti Levu, Vatulele, Kadavu, the Yasawa And the Mamanuca Group And Nearby Smaller Islands has now been cancelled, although a strong wind warning remains in force for the these western areas of Fiji.

Central and Southern Vanuatu remain on Cyclone Alert as the storm approaches the southern part of the country. Islands of particular concern are Efate, Erromango, Tanna and Anatom and all the small outliers around these larger islands. A Cyclone Warning will likely be put in place for Southern Vanuatu early tomorrow.

New Caledonia has also been put on Cyclone Alert as it could take a blow from Gene once it passes through southern Vanuatu.

All residents and interests in western Fiji should continue monitor the storm carefully and follow all government advice as Cyclone Gene moves away. All residents and interests in Central and Southern Vanuatu and New Caledonia should monitor the progress of the storm as it approaches and rush any cyclone preparations to completion as the Government issues advice.


ALERTS AND WARNINGS

FIJI
A GALE WARNING PREVIOUSLY IN FORCE FOR WESTERN VITI LEVU, WEST OF A LINE FROM BA TO SIGATOKA, YASAWA AND MAMANUCA GROUP AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS IS NOW CANCELLED.

A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR VITI LEVU, BEQA, VATULELE, KADAVU AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS AND SOUTHERN YASAWAS AND MAMANUCAS.

VANUATU

A CYCLONE WATCH AND ALERT REMAINS IN FORCE FOR ALL CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VANUATU.

NEW CALEDONIA/ NOUVELLE CALEDONIE

A CYCLONE WATCH AND ALERT HAS BEEN RAISED FOR ALL NEW CALEDONIA.


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From the RSMC-Nadi Tropical Cyclone Centre


Fiji Advisory
Special Weather Bulletin Number TWELVE for Fiji ON TROPICAL CYCLONE GENE ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI at 11:13pm on Tuesday the 29th of January 2008

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.

A GALE WARNING PREVIOUSLY IN FORCE FOR WESTERN VITI LEVU, WEST OF A LINE FROM BA TO SIGATOKA, YASAWA AND MAMANUCA GROUP AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS IS NOW CANCELLED.

A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR VITI LEVU, BEQA, VATULELE, KADAVU AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS AND SOUTHERN YASAWAS AND MAMANUCAS.

TROPICAL CYCLONE GENE CENTRE 990HPA, CATEGORY 1, WAS LOCATED NEAR 18 DECIMAL 5 SOUTH 175 DECIMAL 3 EAST OR ABOUT 240 KILOMETRES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF NADI AT 9PM. THE CYCLONE CONTINUES TO MOVE FURTHER AWAY FROM THE COUNTRY. CLOSE TO THE CENTRE THE CYCLONE IS ESTIMATED TO HAVE WINDS OF AVERAGE SPEEDS TO 85 KM/HR WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 120 KM/HR. DAMAGING GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED OUT TO 160 KM OF CENTRE IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND OUT TO 110 KM OF CENTRE IN THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

FOR VITI LEVU, BEQA, VATULELE, KADAVU AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS, STRONG NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WITH SPEEDS UPTO 45 TO 50 KM/HR WITH GUSTS TO 80 KM/HR. WINDS GRADUALLY EASING FROM TONIGHT. FURTHER RAIN HEAVY AT TIMES WITH SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS AND FLOODING OF LOW-LYING AREAS IS STILL TO BE EXPECTED.

FOR THE REST OF FIJI, EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS FRESH AND GUSTY AT TIMES GRADUALLY EASING TO MODERATE. GENERALLY CLOUDY WITH OCCASIONAL RAIN, POSSIBLY HEAVY AT TIMES, AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.

FOR ROTUMA, FRESH AND GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS. OCCASIONAL RAIN, HEAVY AT TIMES AND SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. ROUGH SEAS WITH A MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY SWELL.

The following information is provided especially for the mariners: A GALE WIND WARNING IS NOW IN FORCE FOR WATERS ABOUT CONWAY REEF. EXPECT WINDS OF 45 KNOTS WITHIN 25 MILES OF CENTRE WITH VERY HIGH SEAS. WINDS OF 35 TO 45 KNOTS WITHIN 90 MILES OF CENTRE IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND 70 MILES OF CENTRE IN THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. HIGH SEAS. DAMAGING HEAVY SWELLS.

A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR THE REST OF FIJI WATERS: WINDS FROM THE NORTHWEST TO EAST 20 TO 30 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS. ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS. MODERATE SWELLS. VERY POOR VISIBILITY IN HEAVY RAIN AND SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. FOR MARINE WEATHER BULLETIN, PLEASE REFER TO THE ROUTINE MARINE BULLETIN TO BE ISSUED AT 1.30AM.

THIS WILL BE THE LAST SPECIAL WEATHER BULLETIN ISSUED FOR FIJI AND THE NEXT ISSUE OF THE ROUTINE PUBLIC WEATHER BULLETIN WILL BE AT 5.30 AM.

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From the RSMC-Nadi Tropical Cyclone Centre

Vanuatu Advisory
Special Advisory Number THREE for Vanuatu on TC GENE ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Jan 29/0834 UTC 2008 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE GENE CENTRE [985HPA] CAT 2 NEAR 18.5S 175.5E AT 290600 UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED ON MTSAT EIR IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE OBSERVATION. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHWEST ABOUT 8 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS ESTIMATED AT 50 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE. EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 25 MILES OF CENTRE. EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 90 MILES OF CENTRE IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND WITHIN 70 MILES ELSEWHERE.

CONVECTION IS DISSIPATING AS QUICKLY AS IT DEVELOPS WITH CLOUD TOPS WARMING ABOUT THE WESTERN FLANK. SYSTEM IS EXPERIENCING MODERATE SHEAR ALONG THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN FLANK. STEERING INFLUENCED BY A SOUTHWESTERLY DEEP LAYER MEAN FLOW OVER AREA WITH A MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE LOCATED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF TC GENE. THIS SUPPORTS THE LATEST MODEL RUNS DRIVING THEH CYCLONE ALONG A SOUTHWESTERLY TRACK FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON 0.95 WRAP ON LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDING DT=3.5, MET AND PAT AGREE, THUS T3.5/3.5/D1.0/24HRS.

IF GENE MAINTAINS A SOUTHWESTERLY MOVEMENT, THIS WILL LIMIT FURTHER DEVELOPMENT GIVEN THAT IT WILL BE EXPOSED TO INCREASING SHEAR. ON THIS CURRENT TRACK, TC GENE IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE DAMAGING GALE FORCE WINDS TO SOUTHERN VANUATU WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. CLOUD INCREASING WITH RAIN DEVELOPING AND BECOMING MORE FREQUENT IN THE NEXT 36 HOURS, WITH SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. SEA FLOODING OF LOW-LYING COASTAL AREAS. SEAS BECOMING ROUGH WITH HEAVY EASTERLY SWELLS.

FORECAST:
12HRS VALID AT 291800 UTC NEAR 18.7S 174.1E MOV SW 10KT WITH 50KT CLOSE TO CENTRE.
24HRS VALID AT 300600 UTC NEAR 18.9S 172.0E MOV SW 10KT WITH 45KT CLOSE TO CENTRE.

OUTLOOK:
36HRS VALID AT 301800 UTC NEAR 19.5S 170.5E MOV WSW 8KT WITH 45KT CLOSE TO CENTRE.
48HRS VALID AT 310600 UTC NEAR 20.0S 169.2E MOV WSW 7KT WITH 40KT CLOSE TO CENTRE.

THE NEXT SPECIAL ADVISORY FOR VANUATU ON TC GENE WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 291430 UTC

VANUATU MET PLEASE ACKNOWLEDGE RECEIPT OF THIS BULLETIN.

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APCEDI will continue to monitor the progress of this system.

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator
http://www.afap.org/apcedi/

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