APCEDI Alert SP/NC Jasper #4-2009: Cyclone Jasper Continues to Weaken off New Caledonia (Nouvelle Caledonie); Moving away from the Territory.

The RSMC-Nadi Tropical Cyclone Centre, and the Joint Typhoon Warning Centre are issuing guidance on Cyclone Jasper, a tropical cyclone that is weakening off the west coast of New Caledonia (Nouvelle Caledonie).

Jasper peaked in intensity last night as it was passing off the the Northwest Coast of New Caledonia (Nouvelle Caledonie). Today it has continued to weaken and slow down. It is centred about 290 km west of Grand Terre. Meteo France is maintaining an 'orange alert (l'alerte cyclonique orange)'for the east of Grand Terre due largely to the potential for heavy precipitation over the rugged highland interior and Eastern drainages as a result of convective uplift from the clockwise cyclonic rotation. A 'yellow alert (pré-alerte jaune)' is also in force for the rest of the country.

These alerts are specifically detailed below:

L'Alerte Cyclonique Orange: Soyez très vigilant; des phénomènes météorologiques dangereux sont prévus ; tenez-vous au courant de l'évolution météorologique et suivez les conseils émis par le Haut-Commissariat. Dans le cas des alertes cycloniques, l'alerte cyclonique orange signifie qu'une dépression tropicale forte ou un cyclone menace le Territoire dans les 24 heures.

Pré-Alerte Jaune: Soyez attentifs, si vous pratiquez des activités sensibles au risque météorologique ; des phénomènes habituels dans la région, mais occasionnellement dangereux (ex: temps modérément pluvieux, averses localement fortes, vent soutenu avec rafales) sont en effet prévus; tenez-vous au courant de l'évolution météorologique. Dans le cas des alertes cycloniques, le jaune correspond à la Pré-alerte.

Jasper has slowed down to a crawl and is moving slightly west-northwest, away from Grande Terre. It has weakened to Category 1 strength on the Australian Cyclone Severity Scale, this weakening will continue.

Forecast models are more in agreement showing a slow drift westward away from Grande Terre into the Coral Sea/ Southern Ocean. Jasper's slow movement away from the the coast, could result in continuing heavy rains with large amounts of precipitation over the rugged interior of Grande Terre. All interests in New Caledonia (Nouvelle Caledonie) should monitor the storm carefully and follow all government advice.

EFFECTS OF JASPER
Heavy rain showers and winds gusting to gale force have been reported throughout the day across much of the main island of Grande Terre. There has been coastal erosion, localised wind damage, road closures, power outages and some localised flooding along the North and West Coasts. Some evacuations have taken place in low lying areas. However, at this time, there is no reports of major damage or life-threatening injuries.

APCEDI will continue to monitor the progress of this system.
___________________________________________
Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator
http://www.afap.org/apcedi/

To donate to AFAP's Disaster Preparedness, Relief and Rehabilitation Programs in Asia and the Pacific, go to http://www.afap.org and click on the "Donate On-Line" icon in the top right-hand corner.

To sign up for AFAP's free APCEDI email service, please go to http://www.afap.org/apcedi/ and register your email address.

APCEDI Alert SP/NC Jasper #3-2009: Cyclone Jasper Weakening off New Caledonia (Nouvelle Caledonie); Some Damage on Grande Terre

The RSMC-Nadi Tropical Cyclone Centre, and the Joint Typhoon Warning Centre are issuing guidance on Cyclone Jasper, a tropical cyclone that is weakening off the west coast of New Caledonia (Nouvelle Caledonie).

Jasper peaked in intensity last night as it was passing off the the Northwest Coast of New Caledonia (Nouvelle Caledonie). Today it has been weakening as it moves southeast paralleling the West Coast of New Caledonia (Nouvelle Caledonie) Meteo France has maintained an 'orange alert (l'alerte cyclonique orange)'for the entire country throughout the day. A 'yellow alert (pré-alerte jaune)' is also in force for the rest of the country.

These alerts are specifically detailed below:

L'Alerte Cyclonique Orange: Soyez très vigilant; des phénomènes météorologiques dangereux sont prévus ; tenez-vous au courant de l'évolution météorologique et suivez les conseils émis par le Haut-Commissariat. Dans le cas des alertes cycloniques, l'alerte cyclonique orange signifie qu'une dépression tropicale forte ou un cyclone menace le Territoire dans les 24 heures.

Pré-Alerte Jaune: Soyez attentifs, si vous pratiquez des activités sensibles au risque météorologique ; des phénomènes habituels dans la région, mais occasionnellement dangereux (ex: temps modérément pluvieux, averses localement fortes, vent soutenu avec rafales) sont en effet prévus; tenez-vous au courant de l'évolution météorologique. Dans le cas des alertes cycloniques, le jaune correspond à la Pré-alerte.

Jasper continues to move southeast at 13 kt (24 km/hr) and has weakened to Category 1 strength on the Australian Cyclone Severity Scale.

Forecast models are still somewhat divergent over the exact course of Jasper throughout the rest of today into tomorrow. Most models are showing it continuing to moving southeast away from New Caledonia (Nouvelle Caledonie) into the Southern Ocean, but some are still forecasting a slow down or stalling off the Southern Coast. If Jasper stalls near the coast, it has the potential to continue to dump large amounts of rainfall over Grande Terre and southern outlying islands. All interests in New Caledonia (Nouvelle Caledonie) should monitor the storm carefully and follow all government advice.

EFFECTS OF JASPER
Heavy rain showers and winds gusting to gale force have been reported throughout the day across much of the main island of Grande Terre. There has been coastal erosion, localised wind damage, road closures, power outages and some localised flooding along the North and West Coasts. Some evacuation have taken place in low lying areas. However, at this time, there is no reports of major damage or life-threatening injuries.

APCEDI will continue to monitor the progress of this system.
___________________________________________
Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator
http://www.afap.org/apcedi/

To donate to AFAP's Disaster Preparedness, Relief and Rehabilitation Programs in Asia and the Pacific, go to http://www.afap.org and click on the "Donate On-Line" icon in the top right-hand corner.

To sign up for AFAP's free APCEDI email service, please go to http://www.afap.org/apcedi/ and register your email address.

APCEDI Alert SP/NC Jasper #2-2009: Cyclone Jasper Intensifying Northwest of New Caledonia (Nouvelle Caledonie)

The RSMC-Nadi Tropical Cyclone Centre, and the Joint Typhoon Warning Centre are issuing guidance on Cyclone Jasper, tropical cyclone that is intensifying northwest of New Caledonia (Nouvelle Caledonie).

This system has been intensifying and steadily moving toward New Caledonia (Nouvelle Caledonie) for the last 24 hours. Meteo France has issued an 'orange alert (l'alerte cyclonique orange)'for all of the main island of Grande Terre and the small island of Belep. A'yellow alert (pré-alerte jaune)' has been issued for the Iles Loyauté including Ouvéa, Lifou, Maré and Tiga as well as the Ile des Pins.

These alerts are specifically detailed below:

L'Alerte Cyclonique Orange: Soyez très vigilant; des phénomènes météorologiques dangereux sont prévus ; tenez-vous au courant de l'évolution météorologique et suivez les conseils émis par le Haut-Commissariat. Dans le cas des alertes cycloniques, l'alerte cyclonique orange signifie qu'une dépression tropicale forte ou un cyclone menace le Territoire dans les 24 heures.

Pré-Alerte Jaune: Soyez attentifs, si vous pratiquez des activités sensibles au risque météorologique ; des phénomènes habituels dans la région, mais occasionnellement dangereux (ex: temps modérément pluvieux, averses localement fortes, vent soutenu avec rafales) sont en effet prévus; tenez-vous au courant de l'évolution météorologique. Dans le cas des alertes cycloniques, le jaune correspond à la Pré-alerte.

Jasper is moving southeast at 14 kt (26 km/hr) and is approaching hurricane force strength, which is Category 1 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale. This equates to Category 2 strength on the Australian Cyclone Severity Scale.

Models are somewhat divergent over the exact course of Jasper into tomorrow. Most models are showing it continuing to approach Northern New Caledonia (Nouvelle Caledonie), but some are now showing it stalling off the North Coast of Grande Terre. The next 12 hours will be critical in determining how close the approach Jasper makes to the main island.

If Jasper stalls near the coast, it has the potential to dump large amounts of rainfall over Grande Terre especially in the north. Heavy rain showers are already being reported in many areas. Jasper is also predicted to slowly strengthen as it approaches New Caledonia. Jasper is increasingly becoming a serious threat to New Caledonia (Nouvelle Caledonie), especially in terms of flooding and rainfall. All interests in New Caledonia (Nouvelle Caledonie) should monitor the storm carefully and follow all government advice.

APCEDI will continue to monitor the progress of this system.
___________________________________________
Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator
http://www.afap.org/apcedi/

To donate to AFAP's Disaster Preparedness, Relief and Rehabilitation Programs in Asia and the Pacific, go to http://www.afap.org and click on the "Donate On-Line" icon in the top right-hand corner.

To sign up for AFAP's free APCEDI email service, please go to http://www.afap.org/apcedi/ and register your email address.

APCEDI Alert SP/NC Jasper #1-2009: Cyclone Jasper Forms Northwest of New Caledonia (Nouvelle Caledonie)

The RSMC-Nadi Tropical Cyclone Centre, and the Joint Typhoon Warning Centre are issuing guidance on Cyclone Jasper, tropical cyclone that formed overnight northwest of New Caledonia (Nouvelle Caledonie).

This system has been meandering in the Coral Sea between Queensland and New Caledonia (Nouvelle Caledonie) for the last several days, but now is becoming much better organised and strengthening. Meteo France has issued an 'orange alert (l'alerte cyclonique orange)'for the North and Northeast Coast of Grande Terre and for the Northern Iles Loyauté of Ouvéa, Lifou. A'yellow alert (pré-alerte jaune)' has been issued for the remainder of the country.

These alerts are specifically detailed below:

L'Alerte Cyclonique Orange: Soyez très vigilant; des phénomènes météorologiques dangereux sont prévus ; tenez-vous au courant de l'évolution météorologique et suivez les conseils émis par le Haut-Commissariat. Dans le cas des alertes cycloniques, l'alerte cyclonique orange signifie qu'une dépression tropicale forte ou un cyclone menace le Territoire dans les 24 heures.

Pré-Alerte Jaune: Soyez attentifs, si vous pratiquez des activités sensibles au risque météorologique ; des phénomènes habituels dans la région, mais occasionnellement dangereux (ex: temps modérément pluvieux, averses localement fortes, vent soutenu avec rafales) sont en effet prévus; tenez-vous au courant de l'évolution météorologique. Dans le cas des alertes cycloniques, le jaune correspond à la Pré-alerte.

Jasper is moving east-southeast at 17 kt (31 km/hr) and should pass near to or over Northern New Caledonia (Nouvelle Caledonie) later tonight into tomorrow. The storm is currently at Category 1 strength on the Australian Cyclone Severity Scale. However, strengthening is possible as it approaches New Caledonia. Jasper currently has the potential to cause localised wind damage and pose localised threats to low-lying areas prone to flooding and beach erosion.

All interests in New Caledonia (Nouvelle Caledonie) should monitor the storm carefully and follow all government advice.

APCEDI will continue to monitor the progress of this system.
___________________________________________
Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator
http://www.afap.org/apcedi/

To donate to AFAP's Disaster Preparedness, Relief and Rehabilitation Programs in Asia and the Pacific, go to http://www.afap.org and click on the "Donate On-Line" icon in the top right-hand corner.

To sign up for AFAP's free APCEDI email service, please go to http://www.afap.org/apcedi/ and register your email address.

APCEDI Alert SP/CI 25P/12F Ken #1-2009: Cyclone Ken forms south of Cook Islands

The RSMC-Nadi Tropical Cyclone Centre, and the Joint Typhoon Warning Centre are issuing guidance on Cyclone Ken, a minimal tropical cyclone that has formed in the Southern Cook Islands, southwest of Rarotonga.

This system is currently located 200 nautical miles (370 kms) westsouthwest of Rarotonga. It is moving southsoutheast at 8 knots and is expected to maintain this course through tomorrow

Given the distance from the main islands, no cyclone warnings have been issued at this time. However, a strong wind warning remains in effect for all of the Southern Cook Islands.

Cyclone Ken will continue to move to the south away from the Cook Islands tomorrow. All interests in the Southern Cook Islands should monitor the storm carefully and follow all government advice.

APCEDI will continue to monitor the progress of this system, although this will likely be the last APCEDI Alert for this minimal system as it passes into the Southern Ocean.
___________________________________________
Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator
http://www.afap.org/apcedi/

To donate to AFAP's Disaster Preparedness, Relief and Rehabilitation Programs in Asia and the Pacific, go to http://www.afap.org and click on the "Donate On-Line" icon in the top right-hand corner.

To sign up for AFAP's free APCEDI email service, please go to http://www.afap.org/apcedi/ and register your email address.

APCEDI Alert SP/CI 20P/11F Joni #1-2009: Cyclone Warning for Southern Cook Islands

The RSMC-Nadi Tropical Cyclone Centre, and the Joint Typhoon Warning Centre are issuing guidance on Cyclone Joni, a minimal tropical cyclone that has formed in the Southern Cook Islands, east of Rarotonga.

This system is currently located 72 nautical miles(135 kms) eastsoutheast of Rarotonga. It is moving southwest at 5 knots and is expected to recurve to the south later today.

The RSMC-Nadi Tropical Cyclone Centre has issued a cyclone warning covering Rarotonga, Manuae, Mauke, Mangaia, Aiutake and nearby smaller islands.

Cyclone Joni will continue to move to the south away from the Cook Islands tomorrow. All interests in the Southern Cook Islands should monitor the storm carefully and follow all government advice.

__________________________________

From the RSMC-Nadi Tropical Cyclone Centre

Southern Cook Islands Advisory

Special Weather Bulletin Number FIVE for Southern Cooks ON TROPICAL CYCLONE JONI
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Mar 11/1242 UTC 2009 UTC.


Tropical Cyclone Warning

A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR RAROTONGA, MANUAE, MAUKE, MANGAIA AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS.

A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR AITUTAKI.

TROPICAL CYCLONE JONI 11F [995HPA] CENTRE WAS ANALYSED NEAR 21 DECIMAL 6 SOUTH 158 DECIMAL 6 WEST AT 111200UTC OR ABOUT 41 NAUTICAL MILES WESTNORTHWEST OF MANGAIA AND 72 NAUTICAL MILES EASTSOUTHEAST OF RAROTONGA. JONI IS CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 05 KNOTS AND IS EXPECTED TO CURVE SOUTHWARDS IN THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS. MAXIMUM 10 MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT 35 KNOTS. ON ITS CURRENT TRACK, JONI WILL BRING DAMAGING GALE FORCE WINDS OVER RAROTONGA, MANUAE, MAUKE, MANGAIA AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

FOR RAROTONGA: SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS GUSTING 40 KNOTS, POSSIBLY INCREASING TO 25 TO 35 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. WINDS EASING AND TENDING WEST TO NORTHWEST LATER TODAY. PERIODS OF RAIN, HEAVY AT TIMES WITH SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. FLOODING OF LOW LYING COASTAL AREAS. VERY ROUGH SEAS. MODERATE NORTHERLY SWELL DEVELOPING.

FOR MANUAE, MAUKE, MANGAIA AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS: DAMAGING GALE FORCE WINDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 KNOTS. WINDS GRADUALLY EASING FROM LATER TODAY. PERIODS OF RAIN, HEAVY AT TIMES WITH SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. FLOODING OF LOW LYING COASTAL AREAS. VERY ROUGH SEAS. MODERATE NORTHERLY SWELL DEVELOPING.

FOR AITUTAKI: WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 30 KNOTS GUSTING 40 KNOTS. WINDS EASING LATER TODAY. PERIODS OF RAIN, HEAVY AT TIMES WITH SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. FLOODING OF LOW LYING COASTAL AREAS. VERY ROUGH SEAS. MODERATE NORTHERLY SWELL DEVELOPING.

FOR PALMERSTON: MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS, TURNING WEST TO NORTHWEST TODAY. BRIEF SHOWERS. MODERATE SEAS.

PLEASE ACKNOWLEDGE RECEIPT OF THIS BULLETIN.

THE NEXT SPECIAL WEATHER BULLETIN FOR THE SOUTHERN COOK ISLANDS WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 111600Z OR EARLIER.

_________________________________


APCEDI will continue to monitor the progress of this system, although this will likely be the last APCEDI Alert for this minimal system as it passes into the Southern Ocean.
___________________________________________
Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator
http://www.afap.org/apcedi/

To donate to AFAP's Disaster Preparedness, Relief and Rehabilitation Programs in Asia and the Pacific, go to http://www.afap.org and click on the "Donate On-Line" icon in the top right-hand corner.

To sign up for AFAP's free APCEDI email service, please go to http://www.afap.org/apcedi/ and register your email address.