AFAP manages the Australian-Pacific Centre for Emergency and Disaster Information (APCEDI) to provide news on natural disaster events in the Asia-Pacific region and to help with rapid disaster response assessment. This was originally a communications network that was activated during a disaster to disseminate information to our Asia-Pacific NGO offices. Now APCEDI has a much wider application across the Asia-Pacific Region.

Monday, March 07, 2005

APCEDI ALERT 22P #2, 2005: CYCLONE INGRID MOVES TOWARD QUEENSLAND

Cyclone Ingrid is heading back towards Queensland, and thus any threat to Pacific Island States is diminishing. It is currently a Category 4 Cyclone on the Saffir-Simpson Scale.

While not in Ingrid's direct path, authorities and NGOs operating in Milne Bay Province and the eastern part of Central Province and associated off-shore islands in PNG should be on alert for rough seas and higher than normal tides especially on the southern coasts over the next 24 hours.

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center has issued their Latest Tracking Map for Cyclone Ingrid.

The Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology has issued their Latest Tracking Map for Cyclone Ingrid.

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE FROM AUSTRALIAN GOVERNMENT BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY

Issued at 6:02pm on Monday the 7th of March 2005

Severe Tropical Cyclone Ingrid has continued to intensify and is now a category 4 cyclone.

A Tropical Cyclone WATCH is current for coastal and island communities between Port Douglas and Lockhart River.

At 5pm Severe Tropical Cyclone Ingrid, category 4, with central pressure 930 hPa, was centred near latitude 14.3 south longitude 148.5 east, which is 375 kilometres east northeast of Cooktown. Ingrid is currently moving west southwest at about 8 km/h.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Ingrid is expected to move slowly towards the north Queensland coast over the next 24 hours and could intensify further. Winds are expected to gradually increase along the north Queensland coast and gales will develop between Port Douglas and Lockhart River during Wednesday.

People between Port Douglas and Lockhart River should consider actions they will need to take as this severe tropical cyclone moves closer to the coast and listen to the next advice at 11pm EST Monday.
_____

This will be the last APCEDI Alert on this system unless it again poses a threat to any of the South Pacific Island States.

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator

APCEDI ALERT 12F #4, 2005: CYCLONE RAE WEAKENS TO A DEPRESSION SOUTH OF MANGAIA

Minimal Cyclone Rae has weakened into a depression and is moving east southeast at 20 kt. Rae's centre lies about 180 miles (290 km) south of Mangaia. All models are now continuing to weaken the system south to southeast of the Southern Cooks.

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center has issued their Last Tracking Map for Cyclone Rae.

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COOKS ISLANDS WEATHER FROM FIJI METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE

Northern and Southern Cooks
Weather Bulletin issued from NWFC Nadi Mar 062315 UTC.

Situation:
Moist east to northeasterly winds cover the Northern Cooks.

Former Tropical Cyclone Rae [998 hPa] centre was located about 180 miles south of Mangaia at 062100 UTC and is moving east-southeast at about 20 knots and expected to decelerate.

Forecast to midnight tomorrow for the Southern Cooks:
Moderate to fresh northwesterly winds, gusty at times. Cloudy with occasional rain or showers and isolated squally thunderstorms. Moderate to rough seas. Moderate northerly swells.

Further outlook: Rain and winds gradually easing.

For Rarotonga:
Moderate to fresh northwesterly winds. Cloudy periods with a few showers. Moderate to rough seas.

Further outlook: Showers and winds gradually easing.

For the Northern Cooks:
Moderate east to northeast winds. Cloudy periods with isolated showers about most parts. Elsewhere, mainly fine. Moderate seas. Moderate northwest swells. Further outlook: Few showers developing from the north.
______

This will be the last APCEDI Alert on this system unless conditions warrant.

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator

Sunday, March 06, 2005

APCEDI ALERT 22P #1, 2005: CYCLONE INGRID FORMS IN THE CORAL SEA

Cyclone Ingrid formed earlier today in the Coral Sea and is currently a Category 1 Cyclone on the Saffir-Simpson Scale. This storm is forecast to intensify off the Queensland Coast.

Authorities and NGOs in Central and Milne Bay Provinces in PNG, Solomon Islands, Vanuatu and New Caledonia should monitor the progress of this storm even though they are not in the current forecast path. Rough Seas will be experienced in Milne Bay Province and the eastern part of Central Province and off-shore islands in PNG over the next 48 hours.

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center has issued their Latest Tracking Map for Cyclone Ingrid.

The Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology has issued their Latest Tracking Map for Cyclone Ingrid.


TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BULLETIN FROM AUSTRALIAN GOVERNMENT BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY

IDQ20065
BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
Queensland Region
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BULLETIN
For 5pm EST on Sunday the 6th of March 2005

Tropical cyclone Ingrid continues to intensify in the northern Coral Sea.

At 5pm EST category 2 tropical cyclone Ingrid with central pressure 985 hPa, was located near 13.1S 148.1E, about 400 kilometres northeast of Cooktown and was moving southeast at about 10 km/hr.

Tropical cyclone Ingrid is expected to be slow moving over the next 24 hours and should continue to intensify.

At this stage Ingrid poses no immediate threat to the north coast of Queensland.

The next information Bulletin will be issued at 11 pm EST this evening.
_____

APCEDI will continue to monitor the progress of this tropical system.

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator

APCEDI ALERT 12F #3, 2005: MINIMAL CYCLONE RAE CONTINUES MOVING SOUTHWEST OF SOUTHERN COOK ISLANDS

Minimal Cyclone Rae continues moving southeast at 15-17 kt. Rae's centre lies about 180 miles (290 km) southwest of Rarotonga. This is the 5th Cyclone in a row to affect the Cook Islands. The good news for the Cooks is that Cyclone Rae is expected to stay at Tropical Storm Strength, well below hurricane level. The Fiji Meteorological Service has cancelled a Gale Warning Rarotonga and Mangaia but maintains a Strong Wind Warning for both islands.

Authorities should monitor this system closely as it could still bring minor low-level wind and storm surge damage to already storm battered areas of Rarotonga and Mangaia especially to western and southern coasts. The models are somewhat divergent on the movements and strength of Rae over the next 48 hours with the FMS weakening it and moving it slowly more eastward and the JTWC maintaining strength and showing a western turn after 24 hours, but all models suggest that this will remain a minimal cyclone.

Should Rae's future course be more easterly and cause it to linger near or over Rarotonga and Mangaia, localised flash-flooding could result. This storm system has brought flooding earlier in the week to parts of Fiji and Samoa. Flooding in Fiji in the Suva and Nausori area of Viti Levu earlier this week caused several landslides and displaced several people.

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center has issued the Latest Tracking Map for Cyclone Rae.

The following is a full and current list of remaining Watches and Warnings in the area:

SOUTHERN COOKS
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
A GALE WARNING PREVIOUSLY IN FORCE FOR RAROTONGA AND MANGAIA IS NOW CANCELLED.
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE THE RAROTONGA AND MANGAIA.

FRENCH POLYNESIA
L'avis de phénomène exceptionnel n°3 est en cours et concerne les îles Australes. This is in relation to Percy's remnants.

AMERICAN SAMOA
A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL AMERICAN SAMOA

TUVALU
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR TUVALU WATERS.

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SOUTHERN COOK ISLANDS ALERT FROM FIJI METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE

Special Weather Bulletin Number THREE for Southern Cooks ON TROPICAL CYCLONE RAE
issued from RSMC NADI Mar 06/0621 UTC 2005 UTC.
**CORRECTION FOR BULLETIN NUMBER**

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

A GALE WARNING PREVIOUSLY IN FORCE FOR RAROTONGA AND MANGAIA IS NOW CANCELLED.

A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE THE RAROTONGA AND MANGAIA.


TROPICAL CYCLONE RAE [995HPA] CENTRE WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.6 DEGREES SOUTH 162.9 DEGREES WEST OR ABOUT 190 MILES WESTSOUTHWEST OF RAROTONGA AT 060500 UTC. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE AND IN THE SOUTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE IS ESTIMATED AT 35 KNOTS WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 55 KNOTS. WINDS DECREASING TO BELOW GALE FORCE WITHIN THE NEXT 6 HOURS. THE CYCLONE IS MOVING SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 15 KNOTS AND IS RAPIDLY WEAKENING.

IF THE CYCLONE CONTINUES TO WEAKEN, THEN DAMAGING GALE FORCE WINDS WILL NO LONGER BE EXPECTED OVER RAROTONGA AND MANGAIA.

FOR ALL SOUTHERN COOKS:
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS, TENDING NORTHWEST AND POSSIBLE INCREASING TO 25 TO 30 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS ABOUT RAROTONGA AND MANGAIA BY LATER TOMORROW. RAIN, HEAVY AT TIMES WITH A FEW SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. SEAS BECOMING ROUGH. HEAVY SWELLS.

FOR REST OF SOUTHERN COOKS :
MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHWEST TO NORTHEAST WINDS, GUSTY AT TIMES. SCATTERED RAIN, HEAVY AT TIMES WITH ISOLATED SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS. MODERATE TO HEAVY SWELL.

THIS WILL BE THE FINAL SPECIAL WEATHER BULLETIN FOR SOUTHERN COOKS UNLESS THE SITUATION CHANGES. THE NEXT BULLETIN WILL BE THE ROUTINE ISSUE AROUND 061530 UTC.
______

APCEDI will continue to monitor the progress of this tropical system.

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator

APCEDI ALERT 12F #2, 2005: CYCLONE RAE CONTINUES MOVING WEST OF SOUTHERN COOK ISLANDS

Minimal Cyclone Rae continues moving southeast at 15-17 kt. Rae's centre lies about 200miles (320 km) westsouthwest of Rarotonga. This is the 5th Cyclone in a row to affect the Cook Islands. The good news for the Cooks is that Cyclone Rae is expected to stay at Tropical Storm Strength, well below hurricane level. The Fiji Meteorological Service has raised a Gale Warning Rarotonga and Mangaia and a Strong Wind Warning for the rest of the Southern Cooks.

Authorities should monitor this system closely as it could still bring more gale-level wind and storm surge damage to already storm battered areas of the Southern Cooks. The models are somewhat divergent on the movements of Rae over the next 48 hours with the FMS moving it slowly more eastward and the JTWC showing a western turn after 36 hours.

Should Rae's future course be more easterly and cause it to linger near or over Rarotonga and Mangaia, localised flash-flooding could result. This storm system has brought flooding earlier in the week to parts of Fiji and Samoa. Flooding in Fiji in the Suva and Nausori area of Viti Levu earlier this week caused several landslides and displaced several people.

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center has issued the Latest Tracking Map for Cyclone Rae.

The following is a full and current list of remaining Watches and Warnings in the area:

SOUTHERN COOKS
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR RAROTONGA AND MANGAIA.
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR THE REST OF THE SOUTHERN COOKS.

FRENCH POLYNESIA
L'avis de phénomène exceptionnel n°3 est en cours et concerne les îles Australes. This is in relation to Percy's remnants.

AMERICAN SAMOA
A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL AMERICAN SAMOA

TUVALU
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR TUVALU WATERS.

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COOK ISLANDS ALERT FROM FIJI METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE

Special Weather Bulletin Number TWO for Southern Cooks ON TROPICAL CYCLONE RAE
issued from RSMC NADI Mar 06/0232 UTC 2005 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR RAROTONGA AND MANGAIA.

A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR THE REST OF THE SOUTHERN COOKS.


TROPICAL CYCLONE RAE [990HPA] CENTRE WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.0S 163.4W OR ABOUT 210 MILES WESTSOUTHWEST OF RAROTONGA AT 060200 UTC. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT 40 KNOTS WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 55 KNOTS. THE CYCLONE IS MOVING SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 15 KNOTS AND EXPECTED TO DECELERATE.

ON THIS FORECAST TRACK, THE CYCLONE CENTRE IS EXPECTED TO LIE ABOUT 170 MILES SOUTHWEST OF RAROTONGA BY 060900 UTC AND ABOUT 150 MILES SOUTHWEST OF RAROTONGA BY 061500 UTC AND MAY BRING DAMAGING GALE FORCE WINDS TO RAROTONGA AND MANGAIA IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

FOR RAROTONGA AND MANGAIA:
EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS, TENDING NORTHERLY AND INCREASING TO 25 TO 30 KNOTS TONIGHT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS. WINDS POSSIBLY INCREASING TO DAMAGING GALE FORCE WINDS WITH AVERAGE SPEEDS OF 30 TO 35 KNOTS AND MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 50 KNOTS EARLY TOMORROW. FREQUENT RAIN, HEAVY AT TIMES WITH A FEW SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. SEAS BECOMING ROUGH. HEAVY NORTHWEST SWELLS. FLOODING INCLUDING SEA FLOODING OF COASTAL AREAS POSSIBLE.

FOR PALMERSTON:
NORTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS, EASING TONIGHT. OCCASIONAL SHOWERS WITH ONE OR TWO THUNDERSTORMS. ROUGH SEAS. HEAVY NORTHWEST SWELLS.

FOR THE REST OF THE SOUTHERN COOKS:
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS, TENDING NORTHWEST AND INCREASING TO 25 TO 30 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS BY TOMORROW. RAIN, HEAVY AT TIMES WITH A FEW SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS. MODERATE TO HEAVY NORTHWEST SWELLS.

THE NEXT SPECIAL WEATHER BULLETIN FOR THE SOUTHERN COOK ISLANDS WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 060600 UTC OR EARLIER.
______

APCEDI will continue to monitor the progress of this tropical system.

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator

APCEDI ALERT 12F #1, 2005: CYCLONE RAE FORMS WEST OF SOUTHERN COOK ISLANDS

Tropical Depression 12F which lies 200 miles (315 km) to the southsouthwest of Palmerston Atoll in the Southern Cooks has now strengthened into Cyclone Rae. This is the area's 5th Cyclone in a row to affect the Cook Islands. The good news for the Cooks is that Cyclone Rae is expected to stay at Tropical Storm Strength, well below hurricane level.

However, authorities should monitor this system closely as it could still bring more low-level wind and storm surge damage to already storm battered areas of the Southern Cooks. Also it is predicted to slow down and move more easterly. This could cause it to linger near or over Rarotonga and Mangaia which could cause localised flash-flooding. This storm system has brought flooding earlier in the week to parts of Fiji and Samoa. Flooding in Fiji in the Suva and Nausori area of Viti Levu earlier this week caused several landslides and displaced several people.

The Fiji Meteorological Service maintains a a Strong Wind Warning for Palmerston Atoll in associations with this depression. Little damage would be expected by seas will remain rough and additional coastal erosion wil likely occur especially during high tides.

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center has issued the Latest Tracking Map for Cyclone Rae.

The following is a full and current list of remaining Watches and Warnings in the area:

SOUTHERN COOKS
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR PALMERSTON ISLAND.

FRENCH POLYNESIA
L'avis de phénomène exceptionnel n°3 est en cours et concerne les îles Australes.

AMERICAN SAMOA
A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL AMERICAN SAMOA

NIUE
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR NIUE WATERS.

TUVALU
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR TUVALU WATERS.
____

DISTURBANCE ADVISORY FROM FIJI METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE

TROPICAL CYCLONE RAE [990hPa] CENTRE WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.0S 164.5W AT 052100 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON GOES9/10 VIS IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHSOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 13 KNOTS AND EXPECTED TO DECELERATE. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS ESTIMATED AT 35 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE. EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 120 MILES OF CENTRE IN THE SECTOR FROM NORTHWEST THROUGH SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST AND WITHIN 60 MILES OF CENTRE ELSEWHERE.

OVERALL ORGANISATION HAS STEADILY INCREASED IN THE PAST FEW HOURS. SPIRAL BAND IS ATTEMPTING TO COIL AROUND LLCC. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON CURVED BAND WRAP OF 0.65 YIELDING DT=3.0, MET=3.0, PAT=3.5; FT BASED ON DT: T3.0/3.0/D0.5/24HRS. RAE REMAINS IN A STRONG DIFFLUENT REGION. OUTFLOW BECOMING GOOD IN ALL QUADRANTS AND ENHANCED BY A JET ENTRANCE REGION IN THE SOUTH. LATEST CIMMS STILL INDICATES SUBSTANTIAL SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM BUT GRADUALLY DECREASING. 250 HPA SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST OF RAE IS SINKING SOUTH, WHILE THE UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST IS FLATTENING AND IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN FAVOURABLE CONDITIONS. GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON MOVING RAE SOUTHEAST WITH SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION. RAE IS TO EXPECTED TO STALL NEAR 160W IN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AS THE CYCLONE RUNS INTO THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST.

FORECAST:
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 060900 UTC 22.3S 162.8W MOV SE 10 KT WITH 40 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

AT 24 HRS VALID AT 062100 UTC 23.2S 161.3W MOV ESE AT 10 KT WITH 40 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK:
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 070900 UTC 23.5S 160.5W MOV ESE 5 KT WITH 40 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

AT 48 HRS VALID AT 072100 UTC 23.9S 160.5W MOV S AT 5 KT WITH 40 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT ADVISORY ON THIS DISTURBANCE WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 060200 UTC.

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COOK ISLANDS FROM FIJI METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE

Northern and Southern Cooks
Weather Bulletin issued from NWFC Nadi Mar 051525 UTC.
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR PALMERSTON ISLAND.

Situation:
Moist northerly winds cover the Northern Cooks.

Tropical depression 12F was centred about 172 miles southwest of Palmerston Island at 051200 UTC and is moving southeast at about 10 knots.

A convergence zone associated with 12F lies slow moving just west of the Southern Cooks.

Forecast to midnight tonight for the Southern Cooks:
For Palmerston Island: North to northwest winds 25 to 30 knots gusting to 40 knots. Winds turning westerly today and easing. Periods of heavy rain and squally thunderstorms. Seas rough to very rough with moderate to heavy swells.

For the remainder of the Southern Cooks:
Moderate to fresh west to northwest winds, gusty at times. Scattered showers with a few squally thunderstorms. Rough to very rough seas. Moderate to heavy swells gradually easing.
____

APCEDI will continue to monitor the progress of these tropical systems.

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator

APCEDI ALERT 10F/12F #25, 2005: EXTRA-TROPICAL STORM PERCY BRINGING ROUGH WEATHER TO AUSTRAL GROUP; DEPRESSION 12F ORGANISES NEAR COOKS

Percy is now an extra-tropical low pressure storm system. It is still a powerful storm causing rough seas, gales and heavy rains for French Polynesia's Austral Group and Rapa Island. The centre of the low pressure is around 32.00 South and 138 West. Meteo-France continues to issue alerts for the Austral Group of French Polynesia (L'avis de phénomène exceptionnel n°3). See details below. Authorities in French Polynesia continue to monitor Percy carefully as it will remain a strong extratropical storm as it passes south of the Austral Group. The southernmost island of Rapa is still in the storm's general track. Despite the bad weather conditions no significant damage has been reported from French Polynesia.

Meanwhile Tropical Depression 12F which lies 172 miles (275 km) to the southwest of Palmerston Atoll in the Southern Cooks is threatening to become the season's 5th Cyclone in the area. While at this point it is unclear whether a major system will form out of this depression, the convection associated with it has brought flooding earlier in the week to parts of Fiji and Samoa. Flooding in the Suva area of Fiji earlier this week caused several landslides and displaced several people.

The Fiji Meteorological Service maintains a a Strong Wind Warning for Palmerston Atoll in associations with this depression. Little damage would be expected by seas will remain rough and additional coastal erosion wil likely occur especially during high tides. Authorities in the Southern Cooks should monitor this system closely.

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center has issued the Latest Tracking Map for Cyclone Percy.

The following is a full and current list of remaining Watches and Warnings in the area:

SOUTHERN COOKS
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR PALMERSTON ISLAND.

FRENCH POLYNESIA
L'avis de phénomène exceptionnel n°3 est en cours et concerne les îles Australes.

AMERICAN SAMOA
A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL AMERICAN SAMOA

NIUE
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR NIUE WATERS.

TUVALU
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR TUVALU WATERS.
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COOK ISLANDS FROM FIJI METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE

Northern and Southern Cooks
Weather Bulletin issued from NWFC Nadi Mar 051525 UTC.
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR PALMERSTON ISLAND.

Situation:
Moist northerly winds cover the Northern Cooks.

Tropical depression 12F was centred about 172 miles southwest of Palmerston Island at 051200 UTC and is moving southeast at about 10 knots.

A convergence zone associated with 12F lies slow moving just west of the Southern Cooks.

Forecast to midnight tonight for the Southern Cooks:
For Palmerston Island: North to northwest winds 25 to 30 knots gusting to 40 knots. Winds turning westerly today and easing. Periods of heavy rain and squally thunderstorms. Seas rough to very rough with moderate to heavy swells.

For the remainder of the Southern Cooks:
Moderate to fresh west to northwest winds, gusty at times. Scattered showers with a few squally thunderstorms. Rough to very rough seas. Moderate to heavy swells gradually easing.
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FRENCH POLYNESIA ALERT FROM METEO FRANCE VIA TAHITIPRESSE

Avis de phénomène météorologique exceptionnel sur les Australes

AUSTRALES :Sur l’archipel un temps pluvieux s’installe. Des vents forts soufflent sur les régions du nord puis vers Rapa cette nuit. Les pluies seront fortes accompagnées de grains parfois orageux. L’amélioration débute demain avec un temps frais et des averses plus isolées. Sur le nord de l’archipel vent de Nord-ouest assez fort à fort.

A Rapa, le vent est modéré de secteur ouest. Il viendra au nord-ouest cette nuit en devenant assez fort puis fort. Les rafales pourront atteindre 80/100Km/Heure voire 120Km/heure sous les grains.

Un courant frais de secteur sud assez fort s’installe demain sur l’ensemble de cet archipel. Mer forte. Houle d’ouest puis de sud-ouest 3 à 4m. Les creux en mer peuvent atteindre 5 à 6m.

Société : 04/03/2005 à 17:13

La dépression Percy sur l'archipel des Australes

(Tahitipresse)  -  Après avoir longé les îles Cook, à l'ouest de la Polynésie française, alors qu'elle était encore un cyclone, la "dépression extra tropicale" Percy évolue désormais sur l'archipel des Australes, indiquent les services de Météo-France.

"Les vents soufflent de nord-ouest à 50/60 km/h en moyenne et temporairement à 70/80 km/h", précise Météo-France.
Sur l'île de Rapa, à l'extrême sud des Australes, des rafales de vent à 100 voire 120 km/h sont attendues. Toutefois, ces rafales de vent devraient faiblir dès samedi soir. Sur l'ensemble de l'archipel, "les pluies seront fortes et accompagnées parfois de grains orageux". Météo-France prévoit également une mer forte avec des creux de 5 à 6 m.


APCEDI will continue to monitor the progress of these tropical systems.

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator

Saturday, March 05, 2005

APCEDI ALERT 10F #24, 2005: CYCLONE PERCY WINDS DOWN, REMNANTS POSE MINOR THREAT TO AUSTRAL GROUP

Percy has continued to wind down overnight and is transitioning to an extra-tropical low pressure system.

Percy now lies 180 miles (290 km) southsouthwest of Mangaia. Percy is moving eastsoutheast at 20 kt. Percy is forecast to continue eastsoutheastward and accelerate over the next 12-24 hours.

The Fiji Meteorological Service maintains a a High Wind Warning for the Southern Cooks and Meteo-France has issued its second alert for the Austral Group of French Polynesia (L'avis de phénomène exceptionnel n°2) for the Group. See details below. Authorities in French Polynesia should monitor Percy carefully as it could still be a strong extratropical storm as it passes south of the Austral Group. The southernmost island of Rapa is still in the storm's general track.

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center has issued the Latest Tracking Map for Cyclone Percy.

The following is a full and current list of remaining Watches and Warnings in the area:

SOUTHERN COOKS
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING PREVIOUSLY IN FORCE FOR MANGAIA IS NOW CANCELLED.
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR THE SOUTHERN COOKS.

FRENCH POLYNESIA
L'avis de phénomène exceptionnel n°2 est en cours et concerne les îles Australes.

AMERICAN SAMOA
A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL AMERICAN SAMOA

SAMOA
FlOOD ADVISORY: Flood advisory remains in effect for low-lying areas due to occasional showers. 

TUVALU
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR TUVALU WATERS.
____

SOUTHERN COOKS ALERT FROM FIJI METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE

Special Weather Bulletin Number THIRTY-ONE for Southern Cooks ON TROPICAL CYCLONE PERCY
issued from RSMC NADI Mar 04/1200 UTC 2005 UTC.

THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING PREVIOUSLY IN FORCE FOR MANGAIA IS NOW CANCELLED.

A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR THE SOUTHERN COOKS.


TROPICAL CYCLONE PERCY CENTRE [975HPA] WAS RELOCATED NEAR 24.7S 159.1W OR ABOUT 180 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MANGAIA OR ABOUT 215 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF RAROTONGA AT 041100 UTC. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE
AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT 60 KNOTS WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 80 KNOTS. THE CYCLONE IS WEAKENING. IT IS MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 20 KNOTS AND EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE FURTHER.

ON THIS FORECAST TRACK, THE CYCLONE CENTRE IS EXPECTED TO LIE ABOUT 270 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MANGAIA BY 042300 UTC.

FOR MANGAIA ISLAND:
NORTHWEST WINDS 25 TO 30 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS EASING OVERNIGHT. RAIN EASING TO SHOWERS OVERNIGHT WITH A FEW SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. SEAS VERY ROUGH. HEAVY SWELLS GRADUALLY EASING.

FOR THE REST OF THE SOUTHERN COOKS:
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS EASING OVERNIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH A FEW SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. ROUGH TO VERY SEAS ABATING. MODERATE TO HEAVY SWELLS GRADUALLY EASING.

THIS WILL BE THE FINAL SPECIAL WEATHER BULLETIN FOR THE SOUTHERN COOK ISLANDS UNLESS THE SITUATION CHANGES. THE NEXT BULLETIN WILL BE THE ROUTINE ISSUE AT 041530 UTC.

____

FRENCH POLYNESIA ALERT FROM METEO FRANCE VIA TAHITIPRESSE

Avis de phénomène météorologique exceptionnel sur les Australes

AUSTRALES :
Sur l'archipel le ciel se couvre avec de l'instabilité qui se développera durant les prochaines 48 heures. Les pluies seront fortes accompagnées de grains parfois orageux. Sur le nord de l'archipel vent de secteur Nord faible s'orientant au Nord-ouest modéré à assez fort vendredi.

A Rapa, vent faible de secteur Sud-ouest dominant puis Nord-ouest modéré à assez fort vendredi. Les rafales pourront atteindre localement 80/100km/h sous grains.

Mer agitée devenant forte.

Petite houle de secteur Sud 1m à 1m50. Arrivée vendredi d'une nouvelle houle de Sud-ouest 1m50 à 2m s'amplifiant et croisée avec une mer du vent se levant à 3/4m.
---

APCEDI will continue to monitor the progress of this tropical system.

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator

Friday, March 04, 2005

APCEDI ALERT 10F #23, 2005: CYCLONE PERCY SPARES RAROTONGA AND MANGAIA AS IT WINDS DOWN

Percy has quickly wound down throughout the day to a Category 1 Cyclone and is now beginning to turn more to the east. Today it has passed west and south of Rarotonga coming no closer than about 170 (275 km) miles, and it is likely to pass no closer than 200 miles (320 km) south of Mangaia tonight. This has spared both islands of hurricane force winds and resulted in only intermittent gales and squalls, some modest tidal surges along the west and south coasts and only minor damage at this point. Earlier yesterday it sideswiped Palmerton Atoll causing only minor damage there as well.

This evening, the JTWC continues to hold maximum 1-minute mean sustained surface wind speeds at 65-70 kts near Percy's centre making Percy a Category 1 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale. Percy will probably weaken below Category 1 strength in 12-24 hours and further gradual weakening is forecast throughout the next 48 hours.

Percy now lies 172 miles (275 km) southsouthwest of Rarotonga and 210 (330 km) miles southwest of Mangaia. Percy is moving eastsoutheast at 18 kt. Percy is forecast to continue eastsoutheastward and accelerate over the next 12-24 hours.

The Fiji Meteorological Service maintains a Gale Warning for Mangaia and a High Wind Warning for the rest of the Southern Cooks. After passing south and east of the Cook Islands, Percy's forecast track could take it close to the Austral Group of French Polynesia and the southernmost island of Rapa. Meteo-France has issued its second Alert (L'avis de phénomène exceptionnel n°2) for the Group. See details below. Authorities in French Polynesia should monitor the approach of Percy carefully as it could still be a Category 1 cyclone as it approaches.

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center has issued the Latest Tracking Map for Cyclone Percy.

The following is a full and current list of remaining Watches and Warnings in the area:

SOUTHERN COOKS
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR MANGAIA.
THE GALE WARNING PREVIOUSLY IN FORCE FOR RAROTONGA IS NOW CANCELLED.
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR THE REST OF THE SOUTHERN COOKS.

FRENCH POLYNESIA
L'avis de phénomène exceptionnel n°2 est en cours et concerne les îles Australes.

AMERICAN SAMOA
A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL AMERICAN SAMOA

SAMOA
FlOOD ADVISORY: Flood advisory remains in effect for low-lying areas due to occasional showers. 

TUVALU
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR TUVALU WATERS.
____

SOUTHERN COOKS ALERT FROM FIJI METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE

Special Weather Bulletin Number TWENTY-NINE for Southern Cooks ON TROPICAL CYCLONE PERCY
issued from RSMC NADI Mar 04/0624 UTC 2005 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR MANGAIA.

THE GALE WARNING PREVIOUSLY IN FORCE FOR RAROTONGA IS NOW CANCELLED.

A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR THE REST OF THE SOUTHERN COOKS.


TROPICAL CYCLONE PERCY CENTRE [965HPA] WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.0S 160.5W OR ABOUT 172 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF RAROTONGA OR ABOUT 190 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MANGAIA AT 040500 UTC. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT 70 KNOTS WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 95 KNOTS. THE CYCLONE IS WEAKENING. IT IS MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 18 KNOTS AND EXPECTED ACCELERATE FURTHER.

ON THIS FORECAST TRACK, THE CYCLONE CENTRE IS EXPECTED TO LIE ABOUT 210 MILES SOUTH OF RAROTONGA OR 180 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MANGAIA BY 041100 UTC AND ABOUT 280 MILES SOUTHEAST OF RAROTONGA OR 210 MILES SOUTH OF MANGAIA BY 041700 UTC.

FOR MANGAIA ISLAND:
NORTHERLY WINDS 25 TO 30 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS, POSSIBLY INCREASING TO DAMAGING GALE FORCE TONIGHT. PERIODS OF RAIN HEAVY AT TIMES AND SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. SEAS VERY ROUGH. DAMAGING HEAVY NORTHWEST SWELLS. SEA FLOODING OF COASTAL AREAS EXPECTED.

FOR THE REST OF THE SOUTHERN COOKS:
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS GRADUALLY EASING. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH A FEW SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. ROUGH TO VERY SEAS. HEAVY SWELLS GRADUALLY EASING.

THE NEXT SPECIAL WEATHER BULLETIN FOR THE SOUTHERN COOK ISLANDS WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 040900 UTC OR EARLIER.
____

FRENCH POLYNESIA ALERT FROM METEO FRANCE VIA TAHITIPRESSE

Avis de phénomène météorologique exceptionnel sur les Australes

AUSTRALES :
Sur l'archipel le ciel se couvre avec de l'instabilité qui se développera durant les prochaines 48 heures. Les pluies seront fortes accompagnées de grains parfois orageux. Sur le nord de l'archipel vent de secteur Nord faible s'orientant au Nord-ouest modéré à assez fort vendredi.

A Rapa, vent faible de secteur Sud-ouest dominant puis Nord-ouest modéré à assez fort vendredi. Les rafales pourront atteindre localement 80/100km/h sous grains.

Mer agitée devenant forte.

Petite houle de secteur Sud 1m à 1m50. Arrivée vendredi d'une nouvelle houle de Sud-ouest 1m50 à 2m s'amplifiant et croisée avec une mer du vent se levant à 3/4m.
---

APCEDI will continue to monitor the progress of this tropical system.

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator

APCEDI ALERT 10F #22, 2005: CYCLONE PERCY CONTINUES STAYING WELL WEST OF RAROTONGA AND MANGAIA

Powerful Category 2/3 Cyclone Percy is moving more toward the southeast overnight, but is continuing to stay well to the west Rarotonga and Mangaia, only causing intermittent squalls, some modest tidal surges along the west coasts and very minor damage at this point. Earlier yesterday it sideswiped Palmerton Atoll causing only minor damage there.

This morning, the JTWC continues to hold maximum 1-minute mean sustained surface wind speeds at 95-100 kts near Percy's centre making Percy a Category 2/3 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale. Percy will probably weaken to a Category 1/2 in the next 12-24 hours and further gradual weakening is forecast throughout the next 48 hours.

Percy now lies 260 miles (420 km) south of Palmerston Atoll and about 185 miles (300 km) westsouthwest of Rarotonga. Percy continues moving southeast at 15 kt. Percy is forecast to continue southeast and accelerate over the next 12-24 hours. Current JTWC forecast positions bring the storm about no closer than 190 miles (305 km) from either island. At this distance, there would still be a strong tidal surge and damaging gales especially on the west and southwest coasts of both islands, but sustained hurricane-force winds would remain well off shore.

The Fiji Meteorological Service maintains a Tropical Cyclone Alert for Mangaia and a Gale Warning for Rarotonga. Authorities in Rarotonga and Mangaia should continue to take preparedness measures as the storm's progress warrants. Deputy Police Commissioner Maara Tetava reported that businesses, schools and other interests continue closed today in Rarotonga and Mangaia where they have battening down especially along the west coasts of both islands.

Chief Inspector John Tini also reported that the loading of the Inter-island Supply Ship Mataroa was finished last night and the boat set sail about 10:00 PM. The Mataroa will arrive in Nassau and then Pukapuka Friday or Saturday after a brief stop in Manihiki this morning.

After passing west of the Cook Islands, Percy's forecast track could take it close to the Austral Group of French Polynesia and the southernmost island of Rapa. Meteo-France has just issued is first Alert (L'avis de phénomène exceptionnel n°1) for the Group. See details below. Authorities in French Polynesia should monitor the approach of Percy carefully as it could still be a major Category 2/3 cyclone during its approach.

Situation on Swain's Island
The good news is that radio communication was re-established with Swain's Island on March 2nd after over a week of no news, and all 8 people on the island are safe and well. That same evening a C-130 plane flew from Pago Pago over Swains has dropped a load of food, water, tents tarps and first-aid kit. Of the 9 buildings on the island, only 3 survived Percy including the Government Building where the people took shelter during the storm. The island was largely overflooded by the storm surge, and there is very heavy damage to gardens, trees and plants with debris strewn throughout.

Situation on Tokelau's 3 Atolls
A week ago, Percy caused widespread damage and 1 injury on Tokelau's 3 atolls Atafu (population 500-600), Nukunonu (population 400-450) and Fakaofo (population 500), yesterday. Mr Tino Vitale, General Manager of Telecommunications for Tokelau in Nukunonu reports that the boat left for Fakaofo on March 2nd with supplies. The Doctor will be on the boat to attend to the serious leg injury reported earlier from the atoll. Go to previous APCEDI ALERT 10F #8, 2005 for more information.

Authorities in Niue where High Wind Warnings have been issued should continue to monitor the situation.

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center has issued the Latest Tracking Map for Cyclone Percy.

The following is a full and current list of remaining Watches and Warnings in the area:

SOUTHERN COOKS
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
A GALE WARNING PREMAINS IN FORCE FOR RAROTONGA.
A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT REMAINS IN FORCE FOR MANGAIA.
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FOR REST OF SOUTHERN COOKS.

FRENCH POLYNESIA
L'avis de phénomène exceptionnel n°1 est en cours et concerne les îles Australes.

NORTHERN COOKS
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR SUWARROW, NASSAU AND PUKAPUKA.

AMERICAN SAMOA
A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL AMERICAN SAMOA

NIUE
A STRONG WIND WARNING IS NOW IN FORCE FOR NIUE/
A STRONG WIND WARNING IS NOW IN FORCE FOR NIUE WATERS.

TOKELAU
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR TOKELAU WATERS AND IS NOW CANCELLED FOR LAND AREAS.

TUVALU
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR TUVALU WATERS.
____

SOUTHERN COOKS ALERT FROM FIJI METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE


Special Weather Bulletin Number TWENTY-FIVE for Southern Cooks ON
TROPICAL CYCLONE PERCY
issued from RSMC NADI Mar 03/1801 UTC 2005 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

A GALE WARNING PREMAINS IN FORCE FOR RAROTONGA.

A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT REMAINS IN FORCE FOR MANGAIA.

A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FOR REST OF SOUTHERN COOKS.


TROPICAL CYCLONE PERCY CENTRE [950HPA] WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.3S 162.9W OR ABOUT 185 MILES WESTSOUTHWEST OF RAROTONGA OR ABOUT 260 MILES SOUTH OF PALMERSTON AT 031700 UTC. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT 80 KNOTS WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 110 KNOTS. THE CYCLONE IS WEAKENING AND IS MOVING SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 15 KNOTS AND IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY ACCELERATE.

ON THIS FORECAST TRACK, THE CYCLONE CENTRE IS EXPECTED TO LIE ABOUT 190 MILES WESTSOUTHWEST OF RAROTONGA OR 275 MILES WESTSOUTHWEST OF MANGAIA BY 032100 UTC AND ABOUT 200 MILES SOUTHSOUTHWEST OF RAROTONGA OR 240 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MANGAIA BY 040600 UTC.

FOR RAROTONGA ISLAND:
NORTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS, POSSIBLY INCREASING TO DAMAGING GALE FORCE WINDS WITH AVERAGE WIND SPEEDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS AND MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 45 KNOTS. RAIN HEAVY AT TIMES AND A FEW SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. SEAS BECOMING VERY ROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. DAMAGING HEAVY SWELLS. FLOODING INCLUDING SEA FLOODING OF COASTAL AREAS.

FOR MANGAIA ISLAND:
NORTHEAST WINDS 2 TO 25 KNOTS AND GUSTING UP TO 35 KNOTS, POSSIBLY INCREASING TO DAMAGING GALE FORCE TONIGHT IF THE CYCLONE TURNS TO THE EAST. RAIN HEAVY AT TIMES AND A FEW SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. SEAS BECOMING ROUGH. HEAVY NORTHWEST SWELLS.

FOR PALMERSTON ISLAND:
NORTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 30 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS, GRADUALLY EASING TODAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS. DAMAGING HEAVY SWELLS. FLOODING INCLUDING SEA FLOODING OF LOW-LYING COASTAL AREAS.

FOR THE REST OF THE SOUTHERN COOKS:
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH A FEW SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. ROUGH SEAS. HEAVY NORTHWESTERLY SWELLS.

THE NEXT SPECIAL WEATHER BULLETIN FOR THE SOUTHERN COOK ISLANDS WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 032100 UTC OR EARLIER.
____

FRENCH POLYNESIA ALERT FROM METEO FRANCE VIA TAHITIPRESSE

Avis de phénomène météorologique exceptionnel sur les Australes

(Tahitipresse)  -  Selon un "Avis de phénomène météorologique exceptionnel" de Météo France en Polynésie, le temps sera perturbé sur les Australes à partir du jeudi 3 mars jusqu'au dimanche 6 mars, provoqué par une zone de convergence puis par le passage du cyclone tropical " Percy " qui aura évolué en dépression subtropicale.

Sur les Australes du nord :
Des pluies assez fortes à fortes se produiront à partir du jeudi 3 mars. Elles dépasseront localement des quantités de 100 millimètres en 24 heures, notamment entre le vendredi 4 et le samedi 5 mars. Les vents se renforceront à partir du vendredi 4 mars dans l'après-midi et atteindront des vitesses moyennes de 45 à 65 km/h, avec des rafales à 80 - 100 km/h, d'abord de secteur Nord-ouest, puis de secteur est-sud-est à partir de la nuit du samedi 5 au dimanche 6 mars. La mer deviendra forte à très forte à partir de la nuit du vendredi 4 mars au samedi 5 mars, avec des creux de 3 à 4,5 mètres.

A Rapa :
Des pluies assez fortes à fortes se produiront à partir de la nuit du jeudi 3 au vendredi 4 mars. Elles dépasseront localement des quantités de 100 millimètres en 24 heures, notamment dans la nuit du vendredi 4 mars au samedi 5 mars. Les vents de secteur Nord-ouest se renforceront à partir du vendredi 4 mars en milieu de journée. Ils atteindront des vitesses moyennes de 55 à 75 km/h, avec des rafales à 90 - 110 km/h. La mer deviendra forte à très forte, à partir du vendredi 4 mars en début de journée, avec des creux de 3 à 4,5 mètres.

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APCEDI will continue to monitor the progress of this tropical system.

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator

Thursday, March 03, 2005

APCEDI ALERT 10F #21, 2005: POWERFUL CYCLONE PERCY STAYING WEST OF RAROTONGA AND MANGAIA

Powerful Category 4 Cyclone Percy is still maintaining its southsoutheast course staying to the west of the Southern Cooks. Earlier this morning it sideswiped Palmerton Atoll causing only minor damage. Percy fortunately stayed far enough west to avoid doing major damage to the island. So the people of Palmerston have once again this season had an escape from the storm's worst effects as was also the case with Cyclones Meena, Nancy and Olaf. Palmerston this year has certainly been the lucky island.

This afternoon the JTWC continues to hold maximum 1-minute mean sustained surface wind speeds at 130 kts near Percy's centre making Percy a Category 4 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale. Percy will probably weaken to a Category 3 in the next 6-12 hours and further gradual weakening is forecast throughout the next 48 hours.

Percy now lies 145 miles (235 km) southsouthwest of Palmerston Atoll and about 220 miles (355 km) westnorthwest of Rarotanga. Percy continues moving southsoutheast at 15 kt. Percy is forecast to continue southsoutheast with an eventual southeast turn. Again the timing of the turn will be critical for Rarotonga and Mangaia the two southernmost Cook Islands. Current JTWC forecast positions bring the storm about no closer than 220 miles (355 km) from either island. At this distance, there would still be a strong tidal surge and damaging gales especially on the west and southwest coasts of both islands, but sustained hurricane-force winds would remain well off shore.

The Fiji Meteorological Service maintains a Tropical Cyclone Alert for Mangaia and a Gale Warning for Palmerston and Rarotonga. Authorities in Rarotonga and Mangaia should continue to take preparedness measures as the storm's progress warrants. Deputy Police Commissioner Maara Tetava reported that businesses, schools and other interests are closed today in Rarotonga and Mangaia where they have been busy battening down especially along the west coasts of both islands.

Chief Inspector John Tini also reported that the loading of the Inter-island Supply Ship Mataroa was finished last night and the boat set sail about 10:00 PM. The Mataroa will arrive in Nassau and then Pukapuka Friday or Saturday after a brief stop in Manihiki tomorrow morning.

After passing west of the Cook Islands, Percy's forecast track could take it close to the Austral Group of French Polynesia and the southernmost island of Rapa. Meteo-France has just issued is first Alert (L'avis de phénomène exceptionnel n°1) for the Group. See details below. Authorities in French Polynesia should monitor the approach of Percy carefully as it could still be a major Category 2/3 cyclone during its approach.

Situation on Swain's Island
The good news yesterday is that radio communication was re-established with Swain's Island after over a week of no news, and all 8 people on the island are safe and well. yesterday evening, a C-130 plane flew from Pago Pago over Swains has dropped a load of food, water, tents tarps and first-aid kit. Of the 9 buildings on the island, only 3 survived Percy including the Government Building where the people took shelter during the storm. The island was largely overflooded by the storm surge, and there is very heavy damage to gardens, trees and plants with debris strewn throughout.

Situation on Tokelau's 3 Atolls
Five days ago, Percy caused widespread damage and 1 injury on Tokelau's 3 atolls Atafu (population 500-600), Nukunonu (population 400-450) and Fakaofo (population 500), yesterday. Mr Tino Vitale, General Manager of Telecommunications for Tokelau in Nukunonu reports that the boat left for Fakaofo yesterday with supplies. The Doctor will be on the boat to attend to the serious leg injury reported earlier from the atoll. Go to previous APCEDI ALERT 10F #8, 2005 for more information.

Authorities in Niue where High Wind Warnings have been issued should continue to monitor the situation carefully due to the very rough seas and surf throughout the region.

Authorities in American Samoa, Tokelau, Niue, Tonga and French Polynesia should continue to monitor Percy carefully even though they are not currently in the forecasted path of the storm. Due to all the cyclone activity in the last few weeks, very rough seas are being experienced throughout a wide area of the Pacific. Due to damage of Cyclones Olaf, Nancy and Meena in this part of the Pacific, some island areas previously impacted will be more vulnerable. Disasters planners should make sure to take such increased vulnerability into account should it become necessary to implement preparedness activities.

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center has issued the Latest Tracking Map for Cyclone Percy.

The following is a full and current list of remaining Watches and Warnings in the area:

SOUTHERN COOKS
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR PALMERSTON AND RAROTONGA.
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FOR REST OF SOUTHERN COOKS.
A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT REMAINS IN FORCE FOR MANGAIA.

FRENCH POLYNESIA
L'avis de phénomène exceptionnel n°1 est en cours et concerne les îles Australes.

NORTHERN COOKS
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR SUWARROW, NASSAU AND PUKAPUKA.

AMERICAN SAMOA
A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL AMERICAN SAMOA

NIUE
A STRONG WIND WARNING IS NOW IN FORCE FOR NIUE/
A STRONG WIND WARNING IS NOW IN FORCE FOR NIUE WATERS.

TOKELAU
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR TOKELAU WATERS AND IS NOW CANCELLED FOR LAND AREAS.

TUVALU
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR TUVALU WATERS.
____

SOUTHERN COOKS ALERT FROM FIJI METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE

Special Weather Bulletin Number TWENTY for Southern Cooks ON
TROPICAL CYCLONE PERCY
issued from RSMC NADI Mar 03/0259 UTC 2005 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR PALMERSTON AND RAROTONGA.

A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FOR REST OF SOUTHERN COOKS.

A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT REMAINS IN FORCE FOR MANGAIA.


TROPICAL CYCLONE PERCY CENTRE [925HPA] WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.2S 164.4W OR ABOUT 145 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF PALMERSTON AT 030100 UTC. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT 100 KNOTS WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 140 KNOTS, DECREASING TO 90 KNOTS WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 125 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. THE CYCLONE IS MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 15 KNOTS AND IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY CURVE SOUTHEAST.

ON THIS FORECAST TRACK, THE CYCLONE CENTRE IS EXPECTED TO LIE ABOUT 150 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF PALMERSTON BY 030600 UTC AND ABOUT 205 MILES WEST OF RAROTONGA BY 031200 AND ABOUT 260 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF MANGAIA BY 040000 UTC.

FOR PALMERSTON ISLAND:
EXPECT DAMAGING GALE FORCE WINDS WITH AVERAGE SPEEDS OF 30 TO 35 KNOTS WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 50 KNOTS, GRADUALLY EASING. FREQUENT HEAVY RAIN WITH SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS GRADUALLY EASING. VERY ROUGH SEAS. DAMAGING HEAVY SWELLS. FLOODING INCLUDING SEA FLOODING OF LOW-LYING COASTAL AREAS.

FOR RAROTONGA ISLAND:
NORTHEAST WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS, POSSIBLY INCREASING TO DAMAGING GALE FORCE WINDS WITH AVERAGE WIND SPEEDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS AND MOMEMTARY GUSTS TO 50 KNOTS BY TOMORROW MORNING. RAIN HEAVY AT TIMES AND ISOLATED. SEAS BECOMING VER ROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. DAMAGING HEAVY SWELLS. FLOODING INCLUDING SEA FLOODING OF COASTAL AREAS.

FOR MANGAIA ISLAND:
MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHEAST WINDS, STRENGTHENING TO 25 TO 30 KNOTS AND GUSTING UP TO 40 KNOTS BY LATER TOMORROW. FREQUENT AND HEAVY WITH THUNDERSTORMS. SEAS BECOMING ROUGH. HEAVY NORTHEAST SWELLS.

FOR THE REST OF THE SOUTHERN COOKS:
FRESH AND GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS, TENDING NORTHERLY AND INCREASING TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS OVERNIGHT. RAIN WITH A FEW SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS. HEAVY NORTHWESTERLY SWELLS.

THE NEXT SPECIAL WEATHER BULLETIN FOR THE SOUTHERN COOK ISLANDS WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 030600 UTC OR EARLIER.
____

FRENCH POLYNESIA ALERT FROM METEO FRANCE VIA TAHITIPRESSE

Avis de phénomène météorologique exceptionnel sur les Australes

(Tahitipresse)  -  Selon un "Avis de phénomène météorologique exceptionnel" de Météo France en Polynésie, le temps sera perturbé sur les Australes à partir du jeudi 3 mars jusqu'au dimanche 6 mars, provoqué par une zone de convergence puis par le passage du cyclone tropical " Percy " qui aura évolué en dépression subtropicale.

Sur les Australes du nord :
Des pluies assez fortes à fortes se produiront à partir du jeudi 3 mars. Elles dépasseront localement des quantités de 100 millimètres en 24 heures, notamment entre le vendredi 4 et le samedi 5 mars. Les vents se renforceront à partir du vendredi 4 mars dans l'après-midi et atteindront des vitesses moyennes de 45 à 65 km/h, avec des rafales à 80 - 100 km/h, d'abord de secteur Nord-ouest, puis de secteur est-sud-est à partir de la nuit du samedi 5 au dimanche 6 mars. La mer deviendra forte à très forte à partir de la nuit du vendredi 4 mars au samedi 5 mars, avec des creux de 3 à 4,5 mètres.

A Rapa :
Des pluies assez fortes à fortes se produiront à partir de la nuit du jeudi 3 au vendredi 4 mars. Elles dépasseront localement des quantités de 100 millimètres en 24 heures, notamment dans la nuit du vendredi 4 mars au samedi 5 mars. Les vents de secteur Nord-ouest se renforceront à partir du vendredi 4 mars en milieu de journée. Ils atteindront des vitesses moyennes de 55 à 75 km/h, avec des rafales à 90 - 110 km/h. La mer deviendra forte à très forte, à partir du vendredi 4 mars en début de journée, avec des creux de 3 à 4,5 mètres.


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Category 4 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale
Winds 131-155 mph (114-135 knots or 210-249 km/hr) - Storm surge generally 13-18 ft above normal. More extensive curtainwall failures with some complete roof structure failures on small residences. Shrubs, trees, and all signs are blown down. Complete destruction of mobile homes. Extensive damage to doors and windows. Low-lying escape routes may be cut by rising water 3-5 hours before arrival of the hurricane center. Major damage to lower floors of structures near the shore. Terrain lower than 10 ft above sea level may be flooded requiring massive evacuation of residential areas as far inland as 6 miles (10 km).

APCEDI will continue to monitor the progress of this tropical system.

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator

APCEDI ALERT 10F #20, 2005: POWERFUL SUPER-CYCLONE PERCY SIDESWIPES PALMERSTON ATOLL

Powerful Super-Cyclone Percy sideswiped Palmerston overnight, but fortunately it stayed far enough west to avoid doing major damage to the island. So the people of Palmerston have once again this season had an escape from the storm's worst effects as was also the case with Cyclones Meena, Nancy and Olaf. Palmerston this year has certainly been the lucky island.

This morning the JTWC continues to hold maximum 1-minute mean sustained surface wind speeds at 140 kts near Percy's centre making Percy a Category 5 Super-Cyclone on the Saffir-Simpson Scale. However, there is evidence of weakening overnight with Percy's eye having become cloud-filled again, so it is likely that Percy is a borderline Category 4/5 at best.

Percy now lies 110 miles (175 km) southsouthwest of Palmerston Atoll and is moving southsoutheast as 10 kt.

Fortunately, Percy took an 8 hour jog to the southwest earlier yesterday which moved its trajectory a little further from Palmerston. While it started to move a bit more easterly yesterday afternoon and overnight, Percy's closest approach to Palmerston was about 95-100 miles west. At 8:00 AM this morning, Palmerston was reporting 50 kt sustained winds with 80 kt gusts, heavy rain and a sea surge coming in to about 30 m inland. However, all people are safe and well, and there is no reports of any major damage to houses at this point.

Palmerston is a very small atoll with a population of around 50 people. There are no hurricane proof buildings, but local residents who are very accustomed to cyclones, wait out the storms in the interior part of the largest island away from the storm surge.

The Fiji Meteorological Service maintains a Tropical Cyclone Alert for all the Southern Cooks including a Gale Warning for Palmerston. Authorities in Palmerston should maintain all cyclone preparedness measures in place for another 4-8 hours until the storm passes well away from their area.. Authorities in the remaining Southern Cooks should continue to take preparedness measures as the storm's progress warrants. Deputy Police Commissioner Maara Tetava reported that businesses, schools and other interests will be closed tomorrow in Aitutaki and Rarotonga where they have been busy all day battening down especially along the west coasts of both islands.

Chief Inspector John Tini also reported that the loading of the Inter-island Supply Ship Mataroa was finished last night and the boat set sail about 10:00 PM. The Mataroa will arrive in Nassau and then Pukapuka Friday or Saturday after a brief stop in Manihiki.

Percy is moving southsoutheast at 10 kt away from Palmerston Atoll and is over 300 miles due west of of Aitutaki in the Southern Cooks. Percy is now a very powerful Category 4/5 Super-Cyclone on the Saffir-Simpson Scale. It is forecast to maintain current strength or gradually weaken over the next 12-24 hours and then continue to gradually weaken thereafter. Percy is forecast to continue southsoutheast with an eventual southeast turn. Again the timing of the turn will be critical for Rarotonga and Mangaia the two southernmost Cook Islands. Current JTWC forecast positions bring the storm about no closer than 200 miles from either island. At this distance, there would still be a strong tidal surge and damaging gales especially on the west and southwest coasts of both islands, but sustained hurricane-force winds would remain well off shore.

Situation on Swain's Island
The good news yesterday is that radio communication was re-established with Swain's Island after over a week of no news, and all 8 people on the island are safe and well. yesterday evening, a C-130 plane flew from Pago Pago over Swains has dropped a load of food, water, tents tarps and first-aid kit. Of the 9 buildings on the island, only 3 survived Percy including the Government Building where the people took shelter during the storm. The island was largely overflooded by the storm surge, and there is very heavy damage to gardens, trees and plants with debris strewn throughout.

Situation on Tokelau's 3 Atolls
Four days ago, Percy caused widespread damage and 1 injury on Tokelau's 3 atolls Atafu (population 500-600), Nukunonu (population 400-450) and Fakaofo (population 500), yesterday. Mr Tino Vitale, General Manager of Telecommunications for Tokelau in Nukunonu reports that the boat left for Fakaofo yesterday with supplies. The Doctor will be on the boat to attend to the serious leg injury reported earlier from the atoll. Go to previous APCEDI ALERT 10F #8, 2005 for more information.

Authorities in Niue where High Wind Warnings have been issued should continue to monitor the situation carefully for any unexpected southwesterly change today and due to the very rough seas and surf throughout the region. Authorities on the Manu'a Islands of American Samoa should continue to be particularly vigilant of high surf due to the high level of damage and debris from Cyclone Olaf last week.

Authorities in Samoa, American Samoa, Tuvalu, Tokelau, Niue, Tonga and French Polynesia should continue to monitor Percy carefully even though they are not currently in the forecasted path of the storm. Due to all the cyclone activity in the last few weeks, very rough seas are being experienced throughout a wide area of the Pacific. Due to damage of Cyclones Olaf, Nancy and Meena in this part of the Pacific, some island areas previously impacted will be more vulnerable. Disasters planners should make sure to take such increased vulnerability into account should it become necessary to implement preparedness activities.

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center has issued the Latest Tracking Map for Cyclone Percy.

The following is a full and current list of remaining Watches and Warnings in the area:

SOUTHERN COOKS
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR PALMERSTON.
A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT REMAINS IN FORCE AND A STRONG WIND WARNING IS NOW IN FORCE FOR THE REST OF THE SOUTHERN COOK ISLANDS.

NORTHERN COOKS
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR SUWARROW, NASSAU AND PUKAPUKA.

AMERICAN SAMOA
A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL AMERICAN SAMOA

NIUE
A STRONG WIND WARNING IS NOW IN FORCE FOR NIUE/
A STRONG WIND WARNING IS NOW IN FORCE FOR NIUE WATERS.

TOKELAU
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR TOKELAU WATERS AND IS NOW CANCELLED FOR LAND AREAS.

TUVALU
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR TUVALU WATERS.
____

SOUTHERN COOKS ALERT FROM FIJI METEOROLOGICAL SERVICESpecial Weather Bulletin Number SEVENTEEN for Southern Cooks ON

TROPICAL CYCLONE PERCY
issued from RSMC NADI Mar 02/1749 UTC 2005 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR PALMERSTON.

A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT REMAINS IN FORCE AND A STRONG WIND WARNING IS NOW IN FORCE FOR THE REST OF THE SOUTHERN COOK ISLANDS.


TROPICAL CYCLONE PERCY CENTRE [900HPA] WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.3S 164.9W OR ABOUT 100 MILES WEST OF PALMERSTON AT 021700 UTC. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT 125 KNOTS WITH
MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 170 KNOTS, DECREASING TO 115 KNOTS WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 155 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. THE CYCLONE IS MOVING SOUTHSOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS AND IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY CURVE SOUTHEAST.

ON THIS FORECAST TRACK, THE CYCLONE CENTRE IS EXPECTED TO LIE ABOUT 150 MILES SOUTHWEST OF PALMERSTON BY 030300 UTC AND ABOUT 170 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF PALMERSTON BY 030600 UTC.

FOR PALMERSTON ISLAND:
EXPECT DAMAGING GALE FORCE WINDS WITH AVERAGE SPEEDS OF 40 TO 45 KNOTS WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 65 KNOTS. FREQUENT HEAVY RAIN WITH SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH SEAS. DAMAGING HEAVY SWELLS. FLOODING INCLUDING SEA FLOODING OF LOW-LYING COASTAL AREAS.

FOR THE REST OF THE SOUTHERN COOKS:
NORTHEAST WINDS, BECOMING FRESH AND GUSTY DURING THE DAY, TENDING NORTHERLY AND INCREASING TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS OVERNIGHT. RAIN WITH A FEW SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS ABOUT AITUTAKI, MANUE AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS. ELSEWHERE, OCCASIONAL SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS, RAIN DEVELOPING TONIGHT. MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS. HEAVY NORTHERLY SWELLS.

THE NEXT SPECIAL WEATHER BULLETIN FOR THE SOUTHERN COOK ISLANDS WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 022100 UTC OR EARLIER.

---
Category 4 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale
Winds 131-155 mph (114-135 knots or 210-249 km/hr) - Storm surge generally 13-18 ft above normal. More extensive curtainwall failures with some complete roof structure failures on small residences. Shrubs, trees, and all signs are blown down. Complete destruction of mobile homes. Extensive damage to doors and windows. Low-lying escape routes may be cut by rising water 3-5 hours before arrival of the hurricane center. Major damage to lower floors of structures near the shore. Terrain lower than 10 ft above sea level may be flooded requiring massive evacuation of residential areas as far inland as 6 miles (10 km).

Category 5 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale
Winds greater than 155 mph (135 knots or 249 km/hr) - Storm surge generally greater than 18 ft above normal. Complete roof failure on many residences and industrial buildings. Some complete building failures with small utility buildings blown over or away. All shrubs, trees, and signs blown down. Complete destruction of mobile homes. Severe and extensive window and door damage. Low-lying escape routes are cut by rising water 3-5 hours before arrival of the hurricane center. Major damage to lower floors of all structures located less than 15 ft above sea level and within 500 yards of the shoreline. Massive evacuation of residential areas on low ground within 5-10 miles (8-16 km) of the shoreline may be required.

APCEDI will continue to monitor the progress of this tropical system.

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator

Wednesday, March 02, 2005

APCEDI ALERT 10F #19, 2005: POWERFUL CATEGORY 5 SUPER-CYCLONE PERCY BEARS DOWN ON PALMERSTON ATOLL

The JTWC is now estimating maximum 1-minute mean sustained surface wind speeds at 140 kts near Percy's centre making Percy a Category 5 Super-Cyclone on the Saffir-Simpson Scale. Percy now lies 135 miles (215 km) northwest of Palmerston Atoll and is moving southsoutheast as 10 kt.

Fortunately, Percy took an 8 hour jog to the southwest earlier today which moved its trajectory a little further from Palmerston, but unfortunately, it is now jogging back southsoutheast tonight erasing most of the westward gain. So for Palmerston, it is very much a matter of waiting another 6-18 hours to see how close the storm will come. Current forecasts have the eye coming within 65-95 miles west to southwest of Palmerston. That would result in a very strong tidal surge and damaging storm force winds. Current winds on Palmerston are NE 30 kt gusting to 35 kt, with periodic squalls. The next high tide will be tomorrow morning just after dawn.

Palmerston is a very small atoll with a population of around 50 people. There are no hurricane proof buildings, but local residents who are very accustomed to cyclones, wait out the storms in the interior part of the largest island away from the storm surge.

The Fiji Meteorological Service maintains a Tropical Cyclone Alert for all the Southern Cooks including a Storm Warning for Palmerston. Authorities in Palmerston should maintain all cyclone preparedness measures in place tonight and tomorrow. Authorities in the remaining Southern Cooks should continue to take preparedness measures as the storm's progress warrants. Deputy Police Commissioner Maara Tetava reported that businesses, schools and other interests will be closed tomorrow in Aitutaki and Rarotonga where they have been busy all day battening down especially along the west coasts of both islands.

Deputy Police Commissioner Tetava also reports that the Royal New Zealand Air Force Hercules landed in Penrhyn this afternoon and loading of supplies onto the Inter-island Supply Ship Mataroa will be finished tomorrow morning. The Mataroa will arrive in Pukapuka Friday or Saturday after a brief stop in Manihiki.

Percy is moving southsoutheast at 10 kt toward Palmerston Atoll in the Southern Cooks. Cyclone Percy now 135 miles (215 km) northwest of Palmerston. Percy is now a very powerful Category 5 Super-Cyclone on the Saffir-Simpson Scale. It is forecast to maintain current strength over the next 12-36 hours and gradually weaken thereafter. After passing Palmerston the storm is forecast to continue southsoutheast with an eventual southeast turn. Again the timing of the turn will be critical for Rarotonga and Mangaia the two southernmost Cook Islands. Current JTWC forecast positions bring the storm about no closer than 200 miles from either island. At this distance, there would still be a strong tidal surge and damaging gales especially on the west and southwest coasts of both islands, but sustained hurricane-force winds would remain off shore.

Situation on Swain's Island
The good news today is that radio communication was re-established with Swain's Island after over a week of no news, and all 8 people on the island are safe and well. A C-130 plane is currently flying from Pago Pago over Swains and will be dropping a load of food, water, tents tarps and first-aid kit. Of the 9 buildings on the island, only 3 survived Percy including the Government Building where the people took shelter during the storm. The island was largely overflooded by the storm surge, and there is very heavy damage to gardens, trees and plants with debris strewn throughout.

Situation on Tokelau's 3 Atolls
Four days ago, Percy caused widespread damage and 1 injury on Tokelau's 3 atolls Atafu (population 500-600), Nukunonu (population 400-450) and Fakaofo (population 500), yesterday. Mr Tino Vitale, General Manager of Telecommunications for Tokelau in Nukunonu reports that the boat left for Fakaofo yesterday with supplies. The Doctor will be on the boat to attend to the serious leg injury reported earlier from the atoll. Go to previous APCEDI ALERT 10F #8, 2005 for more information.

Authorities in American Samoa have discontinued the gale warning for the Manu'a Group, but remain vigilant in case Percy takes an unexpected early turn toward the south or west. Authorities in Niue where High Wind Warnings have been issued and in American Samoa should continue to monitor the situation carefully for any unexpected southwesterly change tonight and due to the very rough seas and surf throughout the region. Authorities on the Manu'a Islands of American Samoa should continue to be particularly vigilant due to the high level of damage and debris from Cyclone Olaf last week.

Authorities in Samoa, American Samoa, Tuvalu, Tokelau, Niue, Tonga and French Polynesia should continue to monitor Percy carefully even though they are not currently in the forecasted path of the storm. Due to all the cyclone activity in the last few weeks, very rough seas are being experienced throughout a wide area of the Pacific. Due to damage of Cyclones Olaf, Nancy and Meena in this part of the Pacific, some island areas previously impacted will be more vulnerable. Disasters planners should make sure to take such increased vulnerability into account should it become necessary to implement preparedness activities.

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center has issued the Latest Tracking Map for Cyclone Percy.

The following is a full and current list of remaining Watches and Warnings in the area:

SOUTHERN COOKS
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
A STORM WARNING IS NOW IN FORCE FOR PALMERSTON.
A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT REMAINS IN FORCE FOR THE REST OF THE SOUTHERN COOK ISLANDS.

NORTHERN COOKS
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE GALE WARNING PREVIOUSLY IN FORCE FOR SUWARROW IS NOW CANCELLED.
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR SUWARROW, NASSAU AND PUKAPUKA.

AMERICAN SAMOA
A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL AMERICAN SAMOA

NIUE
A STRONG WIND WARNING IS NOW IN FORCE FOR NIUE/
A STRONG WIND WARNING IS NOW IN FORCE FOR NIUE WATERS.

TOKELAU
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR TOKELAU WATERS AND IS NOW CANCELLED FOR LAND AREAS.

TUVALU
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR TUVALU WATERS.
____

SOUTHERN COOKS ALERT FROM FIJI METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE

Special Weather Bulletin Number FOURTEEN for Southern Cooks ON TROPICAL CYCLONE PERCY
issued from RSMC NADI Mar 02/0907 UTC 2005 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

A STORM WARNING IS NOW IN FORCE FOR PALMERSTON.

A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT REMAINS IN FORCE FOR THE REST OF THE SOUTHERN COOK ISLANDS.


TROPICAL CYCLONE PERCY CENTRE [900HPA] WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.8S 165.1W OR ABOUT 135 MILES NORTHWEST OF PALMERSTON AT 020700 UTC. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT 125 KNOTS WITH
MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 170 KNOTS. THE CYCLONE IS MOVING SOUTHSOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS AND IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY CURVE SOUTHEAST.

ON THIS FORECAST TRACK, THE CYCLONE CENTRE IS EXPECTED TO LIE ABOUT 100 MILES WESTNORTHWEST OF PALMERSTON BY 021200 UTC AND ABOUT 85 MILES WEST OF PALMERSTON BY 021800 UTC.

FOR PALMERSTON ISLAND:
DAMAGING GALE FORCE WITH AVERAGE SPEEDS OF 35 TO 45 KNOTS WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS OF UP TO 65 KNOTS. WINDS POSSIBLY INCREASING TO DESTRUCTIVE STORM FORCE WITH SPEEDS 50 TO 55 KNOTS AND MOMENTARY GUSTS OF 75 TO 80 KNOTS WITHIN THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS. FREQUENT HEAVY RAIN WITH SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS. DAMAGING HEAVY SWELLS. FLOODING INCLUDING SEA FLOODING OF LOW-LYING COASTAL AREAS.

FOR THE REST OF THE SOUTHERN COOKS:
NORTHEAST WINDS, BECOMING FRESH AND GUSTY TONIGHT. CLOUDY PERIODS WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. RAIN SPREADING OVER THE GROUP FROM THE NORTH TOMORROW. MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS. HEAVY NORTHERLY SWELLS.

THE NEXT SPECIAL WEATHER BULLETIN FOR THE SOUTHERN COOK ISLANDS WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 021200 UTC OR EARLIER.
---

NORTHERN COOKS ALERT FROM FIJI METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE

Special Weather Bulletin Number TWENTY-FIVE for Northern Cooks ON TROPICAL CYCLONE PERCY issued from RSMC NADI
Mar 01/2326 UTC 2005 UTC.

THE TROPICAL CYCLONE GALE WARNING PREVIOUSLY IN FORCE FOR SUWARROW IS NOW CANCELLED.

A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR SUWARROW, NASSAU AND PUKAPUKA.


TROPICAL CYCLONE PERCY CENTRE [915 HPA] WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.6 DEGREES SOUTH 165.3 DEGREES WEST OR ABOUT 190 MILES SOUTHWEST OF SUWARROW AT 012300 UTC. MAXIMUM 10 MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE IS
ESTIMATED AT 115 KNOTS WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 155 KNOTS. PERCY IS MOVING SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS.

ON ITS FORECAST TRACK, THE CYCLONE CENTRE IS EXPECTED TO LIE ABOUT 260 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SUWARROW BY 020600 UTC.

FOR SUWARROW:
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS 25 TO 30 KNOTS, GUSTING 45 KNOTS, GRADUALLY EASING TONIGHT. FREQUENT HEAVY RAIN WITH SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS. DAMAGING HEAVY SWELLS. FLOODING INCLUDING SEA FLOODING OF LOW-LYING COASTAL AREAS LIKELY.

FOR PUKAPUKA AND NASSAU:
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS, GUSTING TO 35 KNOTS, EASING TONIGHT. SCATTERED RAIN WITH ISOLATED SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. ROUGH SEAS. HEAVY NORTHWEST SWELLS.

FOR THE REST OF THE NORTHERN COOKS:
LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHEAST TO NORTHWEST WINDS, FRESH AND GUSTY IN SQUALLS. SCATTERED RAIN WITH A FEW SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS. HEAVY NORTH TO NORTHWEST SWELLS.

THIS WILL BE THE FINAL SPECIAL WEATHER BULLETIN FOR THE NORTHERN COOK ISLANDS AND THE NEXT ISSUE WILL BE THE ROUTINE BULLETIN AT 020415 UTC.
___

Category 4 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale
Winds 131-155 mph (114-135 knots or 210-249 km/hr) - Storm surge generally 13-18 ft above normal. More extensive curtainwall failures with some complete roof structure failures on small residences. Shrubs, trees, and all signs are blown down. Complete destruction of mobile homes. Extensive damage to doors and windows. Low-lying escape routes may be cut by rising water 3-5 hours before arrival of the hurricane center. Major damage to lower floors of structures near the shore. Terrain lower than 10 ft above sea level may be flooded requiring massive evacuation of residential areas as far inland as 6 miles (10 km).

Category 5 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale
Winds greater than 155 mph (135 knots or 249 km/hr) - Storm surge generally greater than 18 ft above normal. Complete roof failure on many residences and industrial buildings. Some complete building failures with small utility buildings blown over or away. All shrubs, trees, and signs blown down. Complete destruction of mobile homes. Severe and extensive window and door damage. Low-lying escape routes are cut by rising water 3-5 hours before arrival of the hurricane center. Major damage to lower floors of all structures located less than 15 ft above sea level and within 500 yards of the shoreline. Massive evacuation of residential areas on low ground within 5-10 miles (8-16 km) of the shoreline may be required.

APCEDI will continue to monitor the progress of this tropical system.

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator

APCEDI ALERT 10F #18, 2005: SWAINS ISLANDERS FOUND SAFE AND WELL AS POWERFUL CYCLONE PERCY BEARS DOWN ON PALMERSTON ATOLL

The very good news today is that radio communication was re-established with Swain's Island after over a week of no news, and all 8 people on the island are safe and well. A C-130 plane is currently flying from Pago Pago over Swains and will be dropping a load of food, water, tents tarps and first-aid kit. Of the 9 buildings on the island, only 3 survived Percy including the Government Building where the people took shelter during the storm. The island was largely overflooded by the storm surge, and there is very heavy damage to gardens, trees and plants with debris strewn throughout.

Meanwhile to the south, Powerful Category 4 Cyclone Percy continues its track to the south toward Palmerston Atoll (population 50). Fortunately, Percy took an 8 hour jog to the southwest which moved its trajectory a little further from Palmerston, but unfortunately, it seem to be jogging back a little east tonight erasing most of the westward gain. So for Palmerston, it is very much a matter of waiting another 12-18 hours to see how close the storm will come. Current forecasts from the Fiji Meteorological Service have the eye coming within 85-95 miles of Palmerston. That would still result in a strong tidal surge and damaging gales, but would also likely keep the sustained hurricane-force winds off shore. However, any slight deviation eastward would bring the storm and storm-force winds closer. Current winds on Palmerston are NE 20 kt gusting to 25 kt, but little rain and no surge yet. They are currently experiencing high tide, and will thus have another high tide in about 12 hours.

Palmerston is a very small atoll with a population of around 50 people. There are no hurricane proof buildings, but local residents who are very accustomed to cyclones, wait out the storms in the interior part of the largest island away from the storm surge.

The Fiji Meteorological Service maintains a Tropical Cyclone Alert for all the Southern Cooks including a Gale Warning for Palmerston. Authorities in Palmerston should maintain all cyclone preparedness measures in place tonight and tomorrow. Authorities in the remaining Southern Cooks should continue to take preparedness measures as the storm's progress warrants. Deputy Police Commissioner Maara Tetava reported that businesses, schools and other interests will be closed tomorrow in Aitutaki and Rarotonga where they have been busy all day battening down especially along the west coasts of both islands.

Deputy Police Commissioner Tetava also reports that the Royal New Zealand Air Force Hercules landed in Penrhyn this afternoon and loading of supplies onto the Inter-island Supply Ship Mataroa will be finished tomorrow morning. The Mataroa will arrive in Pukapuka Friday or Saturday after a brief stop in Manihiki.

Percy continues moving southward a bit faster at 12 kt, toward Palmerston Atoll in the Southern Cooks. Cyclone Percy now 160 miles (260 km) northwest of Palmerston. Percy has increased intensity today to a strong Category 4 Cyclone approaching Super Cyclone Category 5 status on the Saffir-Simpson Scale. It may increase its strength slightly or maintain current strength over the next 12-48 hours.

Four days ago, Percy caused widespread damage and 1 injury on Tokelau's 3 atolls Atafu (population 500-600), Nukunonu (population 400-450) and Fakaofo (population 500), yesterday. Mr Tino Vitale, General Manager of Telecommunications for Tokelau in Nukunonu reports that the boat left for Fakaofo yesterday with supplies. The Doctor will be on the boat to attend to the serious leg injury reported earlier from the atoll.

Situation on Tokelau's 3 Atolls
Go to previous APCEDI ALERT 10F #8, 2005.

Authorities in American Samoa have discontinued the gale warning for the Manu'a Group, but remain vigilant in case Percy takes an unexpected early turn toward the south or west. Authorities in Niue and American Samoa should continue to monitor the situation carefully for any unexpected southwesterly change tonight and due to the very rough seas and surf throughout the region. Authorities on the Manu'a Islands of American Samoa should cotniue to be particularly vigilant due to the high level of damage and debris from Cyclone Olaf last week.

Authorities in Samoa, American Samoa, Tuvalu, Tokelau, Niue, Tonga and French Polynesia should continue to monitor Percy carefully even though they are not currently in the forecasted path of the storm. Due to all the cyclone activity in the last few weeks, very rough seas are being experienced throughout a wide area of the Pacific. Due to damage of Cyclones Olaf, Nancy and Meena in this part of the Pacific, some island areas previously impacted will be more vulnerable. Disasters planners should make sure to take such increased vulnerability into account should it become necessary to implement preparedness activities.

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center has issued the Latest Tracking Map for Cyclone Percy.

The following is a full and current list of remaining Watches and Warnings in the area:

SOUTHERN COOKS
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
A GALE WARNING IS NOW IN FORCE FOR PALMERSTON.
AN ALERT REMAINS IN FORCE FOR THE REST OF THE SOUTHERN COOK ISLANDS.

NORTHERN COOKS
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE GALE WARNING PREVIOUSLY IN FORCE FOR SUWARROW IS NOW CANCELLED.
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR SUWARROW, NASSAU AND PUKAPUKA.

AMERICAN SAMOA
A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL AMERICAN SAMOA

NIUE
A STRONG WIND WARNING IS NOW IN FORCE FOR NIUE/
A STRONG WIND WARNING IS NOW IN FORCE FOR NIUE WATERS.

TOKELAU
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR TOKELAU WATERS AND IS NOW CANCELLED FOR LAND AREAS.

TUVALU
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR TUVALU WATERS.
____

SOUTHERN COOKS ALERT FROM FIJI METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE

Special Weather Bulletin Number THIRTEEN for Southern Cooks ON TROPICAL CYCLONE PERCY
issued from RSMC NADI Mar 02/0554 UTC 2005 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR PALMERSTON.

A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT REMAINS IN FORCE FOR THE REST OF THE SOUTHERN COOK ISLANDS.


TROPICAL CYCLONE PERCY CENTRE [900HPA] WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.4S 165.3W OR ABOUT 160 MILES NORTHWEST OF PALMERSTON AT 020500 UTC. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT 125 KNOTS WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 170 KNOTS. THE CYCLONE IS MOVING SOUTH AT ABOUT 12 KNOTS AND IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY CURVE SOUTHSOUTHEAST LATER.

ON THIS FORECAST TRACK, THE CYCLONE CENTRE IS EXPECTED TO LIE ABOUT 95 MILES WESTNORTHWEST OF PALMERSTON BY 021200 UTC AND ABOUT 85 MILES WESTSOUTHWEST OF PALMERSTON BY 021800 UTC.

FOR PALMERSTON ISLAND:
EXPECT DAMAGING GALE FORCE WITH AVERAGE SPEEDS OF 35 TO 45 KNOTS WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS OF UP TO 65 KNOTS. FREQUENT HEAVY RAIN WITH SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH SEAS. DAMAGING HEAVY SWELLS. FLOODING INCLUDING SEA FLOODING OF LOW-LYING COASTAL AREAS.

FOR THE REST OF THE SOUTHERN COOKS:
NORTHEAST WINDS, BECOMING FRESH AND GUSTY TONIGHT. CLOUDY PERIODS WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. RAIN SPREADING OVER THE GROUP FROM THE NORTH TOMORROW. MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS. HEAVY NORTHERLY SWELLS.

THE NEXT SPECIAL WEATHER BULLETIN FOR THE SOUTHERN COOK ISLANDS WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 020900 UTC OR EARLIER.

---

NORTHERN COOKS ALERT FROM FIJI METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE

Special Weather Bulletin Number TWENTY-FIVE for Northern Cooks ON TROPICAL CYCLONE PERCY
issued from RSMC NADI
Mar 01/2326 UTC 2005 UTC.

THE TROPICAL CYCLONE GALE WARNING PREVIOUSLY IN FORCE FOR SUWARROW IS NOW CANCELLED.

A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR SUWARROW, NASSAU AND PUKAPUKA.


TROPICAL CYCLONE PERCY CENTRE [915 HPA] WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.6 DEGREES SOUTH 165.3 DEGREES WEST OR ABOUT 190 MILES SOUTHWEST OF SUWARROW AT 012300 UTC. MAXIMUM 10 MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE IS ESTIMATED AT 115 KNOTS WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 155 KNOTS. PERCY IS MOVING SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS.

ON ITS FORECAST TRACK, THE CYCLONE CENTRE IS EXPECTED TO LIE ABOUT 260 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SUWARROW BY 020600 UTC.

FOR SUWARROW:
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS 25 TO 30 KNOTS, GUSTING 45 KNOTS, GRADUALLY EASING TONIGHT. FREQUENT HEAVY RAIN WITH SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS. DAMAGING HEAVY SWELLS. FLOODING INCLUDING SEA FLOODING OF LOW-LYING COASTAL AREAS LIKELY.

FOR PUKAPUKA AND NASSAU:
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS, GUSTING TO 35 KNOTS, EASING TONIGHT. SCATTERED RAIN WITH ISOLATED SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. ROUGH SEAS. HEAVY NORTHWEST SWELLS.

FOR THE REST OF THE NORTHERN COOKS:
LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHEAST TO NORTHWEST WINDS, FRESH AND GUSTY IN SQUALLS. SCATTERED RAIN WITH A FEW SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS. HEAVY NORTH TO NORTHWEST SWELLS.

THIS WILL BE THE FINAL SPECIAL WEATHER BULLETIN FOR THE NORTHERN COOK ISLANDS AND THE NEXT ISSUE WILL BE THE ROUTINE BULLETIN AT 020415 UTC.
___

Category 4 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale
Winds 131-155 mph (114-135 knots or 210-249 km/hr) - Storm surge generally 13-18 ft above normal. More extensive curtainwall failures with some complete roof structure failures on small residences. Shrubs, trees, and all signs are blown down. Complete destruction of mobile homes. Extensive damage to doors and windows. Low-lying escape routes may be cut by rising water 3-5 hours before arrival of the hurricane center. Major damage to lower floors of structures near the shore. Terrain lower than 10 ft above sea level may be flooded requiring massive evacuation of residential areas as far inland as 6 miles (10 km).

APCEDI will continue to monitor the progress of this tropical system.

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator
http://www.afap.org

APCEDI ALERT 10F #17, 2005: POWERFUL CYCLONE PERCY TAKES AIM ON PALMERSTON ATOLL AS IT MOVES SOUTH

Powerful Category 4 Cyclone Percy continues its track to the south toward the Southern Cooks with Palmerston Atoll (population 50) likely to be its next target. The Fiji Meteorological Service maintains a Tropical Cyclone Alert for all the Southern Cooks including a Gale Warning for Palmerston. Authorities in Palmerston should rush all cyclone preparedness measures to completion this morning in line with a Category 4 storm. Authorities in the remaining Southern Cooks should continue to take preparedness measures as the storm's progress warrants.

This scenario is particularly troubling for Palmerston Atoll as they could receive a near direct hit by Percy which could cause serious damage similar to what happened on Pukapuka and Nassau. However, Percy is picking up forward speed and is forecast to continue accelerating to the south so hopefully this would at least move the storm along at a good pace, and it would not linger over the atoll. Palmerston is a very small atoll with a population of around 50 people. There are no hurricane proof buildings, but local residents who are very accustomed to cyclones, wait out the storms in the interior part of the largest island away from the storm surge.

Chief Inspector John Tini reports that the Royal New Zealand Air Force Hercules has now been repaired and will be loaded with supplies and flown to Penrhyn around noontime today. The Inter-island Supply Ship Mataroa docked in Penrhyn at 8:00 this morning and is ready to load on supplies and take them to Pukapuka and Nassau later today.

Percy continues moving southward a bit faster at 10 kt, toward Palmerston Atoll in the Southern Cooks. Cyclone Percy now 226 miles (365 km) northnorthwest of Palmerston. Percy has increased intensity overnight, and is now regained Category 4 Cyclone status on the Saffir-Simpson Scale. It may increase its strength slightly or maintain current strength over the next 12-48 hours.

Three days ago, the cyclone passed to the northeast of Swain's Island (population 5-20). All efforts to contact Swain's continue to be unsuccessful. Dawn Alailima, Commander of the American Samoa Emergency Operations Command reported that the C-130 plane due out of Honolulu to overfly Swains yesterday had to turn back due to mechanical difficulties. It was now forecast to come to Pago Pago last night and then fly over and do a food, water and medicine drop this morning. Hopefully the brave Swains Islanders will hang in there and will be eventually found hale and hearty if not a bit wet and hungry. APCEDI will report on the outcome of the flight later today.

Situation on Swain's Island, American Samoa
Go to previous APCEDI ALERT 10F #9, 2005.

Four days ago, Percy caused widespread damage and 1 injury on Tokelau's 3 atolls Atafu (population 500-600), Nukunonu (population 400-450) and Fakaofo (population 500), yesterday. Mr Tino Vitale, General Manager of Telecommunications for Tokelau in Nukunonu reports that the boat left for Fakaofo yesterday with supplies. The Doctor will be on the boat to attend to the serious leg injury reported earlier from the atoll.

Situation on Tokelau's 3 Atolls
Go to previous APCEDI ALERT 10F #8, 2005.

Authorities in American Samoa have discontinued the gale warning for the Manu'a Group, but remain vigilant in case Percy takes an unexpected early turn toward the south or west. Authorities in Niue and American Samoa should continue to monitor the situation carefully for any unexpected southwesterly change throughout the day. Authorities on the Manu'a Islands of American Samoa should be particularly vigilant due to the high level of damage and debris from Cyclone Olaf last week.

Authorities in Tuvalu, Tokelau, Samoa, American Samoa, Wallis and Futuna, Niue, Tonga and French Polynesia should continue to monitor Percy carefully even though they are not currently in the forecasted path of the storm. Due to all the cyclone activity in the last few weeks, very rough seas are being experienced throughout a wide area of the Pacific. Due to damage of Cyclones Olaf, Nancy and Meena in this part of the Pacific, some island areas previously impacted will be more vulnerable. Disasters planners should make sure to take such increased vulnerability into account should it become necessary to implement preparedness activities.

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center has issued the Latest Tracking Map for Cyclone Percy.

The following is a full and current list of remaining Watches and Warnings in the area:

SOUTHERN COOKS
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
A GALE WARNING IS NOW IN FORCE FOR PALMERSTON.
AN ALERT REMAINS IN FORCE FOR THE REST OF THE SOUTHERN COOK ISLANDS.

NORTHERN COOKS
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR SUWARROW.
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR NASSAU AND PUKAPUKA AND IS NOW CANCELLED FOR THE REST OF THE NORTHERN COOKS.

AMERICAN SAMOA
A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL AMERICAN SAMOA

TOKELAU
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR TOKELAU WATERS AND IS NOW CANCELLED FOR LAND AREAS.

TUVALU
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR TUVALU WATERS.
____

SOUTHERN COOKS ALERT FROM FIJI METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE

Special Weather Bulletin Number NINE for Southern Cooks ON TROPICAL CYCLONE PERCY
issued from RSMC NADI Mar 01/1743 UTC 2005 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

A GALE WARNING IS NOW IN FORCE FOR PALMERSTON.

AN ALERT REMAINS IN FORCE FOR THE REST OF THE SOUTHERN COOK ISLANDS.


TROPICAL CYCLONE PERCY CENTRE [925HPA] WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.7S 164.9W OR ABOUT 226 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF PALMERSTON AT 011730 UTC. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT 100 KNOTS WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 140 KNOTS. THE CYCLONE IS MOVING SOUTH AT ABOUT 05 KNOTS AND EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE GRADUALLY.

ON THIS FORECAST TRACK, THE CYCLONE CENTRE IS EXPECTED TO LIE ABOUT 149 MILES NORTHWEST OF PALMERSTON BY 020500 UTC AND ABOUT 120 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF PALMERSTON BY 021700 UTC.

FOR PALMERSTON ISLAND:
WINDS INCREASING TO DAMAGING GALE FORCE WITH AVERAGE SPEEDS OF 35 TO 45 KNOTS WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS OF 50 TO 65 KNOTS. FREQUENT HEAVY RAIN WITH SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. SEAS HIGH. DAMAGING HEAVY SWELLS. FLOODING INCLUDING FLOODING OF LOW-LYING COASTAL AREAS EXPECTED.

FOR THE REST OF THE SOUTHERN COOKS:
NORTHEAST WINDS, BECOMING FRESH AND GUSTY. CLOUDY WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY. MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS. HEAVY NORTHERLY SWELLS.

THE NEXT SPECIAL WEATHER BULLETIN FOR THE SOUTHERN COOK ISLANDS WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 012100 UTC OR EARLIER.
---

NORTHERN COOKS ALERT FROM FIJI METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE

Special Weather Bulletin Number TWENTY-THREE for Northern Cooks ON
TROPICAL CYCLONE PERCY issued from RSMC NADI
Mar 01/1736 UTC 2005 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR SUWARROW.

A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR NASSAU AND PUKAPUKA AND IS NOW CANCELLED FOR THE REST OF THE NORTHERN COOKS.


TROPICAL CYCLONE PERCY CENTRE [925 HPA] WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.7 DEGREES SOUTH 164.9 DEGREES WEST OR ABOUT 136 MILES SOUTHWEST OF SUWARROW OR ABOUT 238 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PUKAPUKA AT 011730 UTC. MAXIMUM 10 MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE IS ESTIMATED AT 100 KNOTS WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 140 KNOTS. PERCY IS MOVING SOUTH AT ABOUT 05 KNOTS AND EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY ACCELERATE.

ON ITS FORECAST TRACK, THE CYCLONE CENTRE IS EXPECTED TO LIE ABOUT 171 MILES SOUTHWEST OF SUWARROW BY 012300 UTC AND ABOUT 220 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SUWARROW BY 020500 UTC.

FOR SUWARROW:
DAMAGING GALE FORCE WINDS WITH AVERAGE SPEEDS OF 30 TO 35 KNOTS AND MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 50 KNOTS, EASING THIS MORNING. FREQUENT HEAVY RAIN WITH SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH SEAS. DAMAGING HEAVY SWELLS. FLOODING INCLUDING SEA FLOODING OF LOW-LYING COASTAL AREAS.

FOR PUKAPUKA AND NASSAU:
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS, GUSTING TO 35 KNOTS. PERIODS OF RAIN, HEAVY AT TIMES, WITH SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. VERY ROUGH SEAS. HEAVY NORTHWEST SWELLS.

FOR THE REST OF THE NORTHERN COOKS:
NORTHEAST TO NORTHWEST WINDS, FRESH AND GUSTY AT TIMES. FURTHER PERIODS OF RAIN, HEAVY AT TIMES, WITH SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS. HEAVY NORTH TO NORTHWEST SWELLS.

THE NEXT SPECIAL WEATHER BULLETIN FOR THE NORTHERN COOK ISLANDS ON TC PERCY WILL BE ISSUED AT 012100 UTC OR EARLIER.
___

Category 4 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale
Winds 131-155 mph (114-135 knots or 210-249 km/hr) - Storm surge generally 13-18 ft above normal. More extensive curtainwall failures with some complete roof structure failures on small residences. Shrubs, trees, and all signs are blown down. Complete destruction of mobile homes. Extensive damage to doors and windows. Low-lying escape routes may be cut by rising water 3-5 hours before arrival of the hurricane center. Major damage to lower floors of structures near the shore. Terrain lower than 10 ft above sea level may be flooded requiring massive evacuation of residential areas as far inland as 6 miles (10 km).

APCEDI will continue to monitor the progress of this tropical system.

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator
http://www.afap.org

 
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