APCEDI Alert SP/WF 19P Tomas #5-2010: Cyclone Tomas Continues to Batter Lau Group as Fiji Government Declares State of Emergency

The RSMC-Nadi Tropical Cyclone Centre, and the Joint Typhoon Warning Centre are issuing guidance on Cyclone Tomas, a tropical cyclone that continues to batter the Lau Group.

This centre of this system is currently located 50 kms southeast of Totoya Island, 50 km southwest of Kambara Island and about 150 kms northwest of Ona-I-Lau, the next major island in its path. It is moving south at 13 knots. Maximum sustained winds are 90 kts making Tomas a Category 2 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale. Tomas peaked in intensity yesterday, and most models are now forecasting Cyclone Tomas to continue to slowly decrease in strength and maintain a southerly course over the next 24-48 hours across the remainder of Fiji's Southern Lau Group.

A Hurricane Warning is now in force for the Ona-I-Lau, Vatoa and nearby smaller islands. A Storm Warning remains in force for Kabara, Moala, Matuku, Totoya and nearby smaller islands. A Gale Warning remains in force for Gau, Batiki, Nairai, Vanua Balavu, Cicia, Nayau, Lakeba and nearby islands. A strong wind warning is in place for the rest of Fiji.

Tomas followed very closely to its forecasted track yesterday. Today, Tomas should pass 100 kms west of Vatoa and then over or very near Ona-I-Lau before exiting into the open waters of the South Pacific. It should pass well to the west of the Tongan capital Nuku 'Alofa by about 300 km.

Early today the Fiji Government declared a State of Emergency in Northern and Eastern Regions. Government authorities have not been able to establish communications with Cikobia and areas of the Ringgold Isles (Qelelevu) since the cyclone passed across yesterday. Lots of damage to trees and crops is being reported across Eastern Vanua Levu and Taveuni with damage to structures starting to come in. Navy boats are headed out tomorrow to start surveys across the region.

Inhabited Islands that have had a direct or near direct hit (50 km or less from centre) include Cikobia, Ringgold Isles (Qelelevu), Rabi, Taveuni, Laucala, Qamea, Matagi, Naitaba, Mago, Yacata, Vatu Vara, Cicia, Nayau, Vanua Vatu, Moala, Totoya and Kambara. Ona-I-Lau will likely receive a direct or near direct before the cyclone moves out.

The residents of the Lau Group and all surrounding islands should monitor this cyclone carefully as it begins to exit the region. All other areas of Fiji should monitor the storm carefully and follow Government advice as required.

Special Weather Bulletin Number TWENTY-SEVEN for Fiji ON TROPICAL CYCLONE TOMAS

ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI at 4:37pm on Tuesday the 16th of March 2010

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR ONO-I-LAU, VATOA AND NEARBY ISLANDS.

A STORM WARNING REMAINS FORCE FOR KABARA, MOALA, MATUKU,TOTOYA, AND NEARBY ISLANDS.

A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR GAU, BATIKI, NAIRAI, VANUA BALAVU, CICIA, NAYAU, LAKEBA AND NEARBY ISLANDS.

A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR THE REST OF THE FIJI GROUP.

SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE TOMAS CENTRE 940HPA CATEGORY 4 WAS LOCATED NEAR 19 DECIMAL 3 SOUTH 179 DECIMAL 4 WEST OR ABOUT 170KM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF ONO-I-LAU OR 265 KM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SUVA AT 4PM TODAY. CLOSE TO ITS CENTRE THE CYCLONE IS ESTIMATED TO HAVE AVERAGE WINDS OF 165 KM/HR EASING TO 100 KM/HR WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE CYCLONE IS MOVING SOUTH AT 24 KM/HR.

ON THIS TRACK, THE CYCLONE CENTRE IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED ABOUT 110 KM SOUTH OF ONO-I-LAU OR 500 KM SOUTHEAST OF SUVA 4AM TOMORROW AND ABOUT 550 KM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF ONO-I-LAU AT 4PM TOMORROW.

FOR ONO-I-LAU, VATOA AND NEARBY ISLANDS:
WINDS TO VERY DESTRUCTIVE HURRICANE FORCE WITH AVERAGE SPEEDS OF 165 KM/HR WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 230 KM/HR. FREQUENT HEAVY RAIN AND SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. PHENOMINAL SEAS. DAMAGING HEAVY SWELLS. FLOODING INCLUDING FLOODING OF LOW-LYING COASTAL AREAS.

FOR KABARA, MOALA, MATUKU,TOTOYA, AND NEARBY ISLANDS:
WINDS TO DESTRUCTIVE STORM FORCE WITH AVERAGE SPEEDS OF 90 KM/HR WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS 130 KM/HR. FREQUENT HEAVY RAIN AND SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. VERY HIGH SEAS. DAMAGING HEAVY SWELLS. FLOODING INCLUDING FLOODING OF LOW-LYING COASTAL AREAS.

FOR GAU, BATIKI, NAIRAI, VANUA BALAVU, CICIA, NAYAU, LAKEBA AND NEARBY ISLANDS:
WINDS TO DAMAGING GALE FORCE WITH AVERAGE SPEEDS UP TO 75 KM/HR AND MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 110 KM/HR. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS. DAMAGING HEAVY SWELLS. FLOODING INCLUDING SEA FLOODING OF LOW-LYING COASTAL AREAS EXPECTED.

FOR THE REST OF FIJI:
FRESH TO STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS. CLOUDY WITH OCCASIONAL RAIN, HEAVY AT TIMES AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. POSSIBLE FLOODING IN LOW-LYING AREAS. ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS. HEAVY SWELLS.

The following information is provided especially for the mariners:
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE WITH PHENOMINAL SEAS FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS. STORM FORCE WINDS WITH VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE, REDUCING TO 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE WITHIN 24 HOURS. GALE FORCE WINDS WITH HIGH SEAS WITHIN 150 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN THE EASTERN SECTORS AND WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN THE WESTERN SECTORS. ELSEWHERE, FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WITH ROUGH SEAS. DAMAGING HEAVY SWELLS.

THE NEXT SPECIAL WEATHER BULLETIN FOR FIJI ON TC TOMAS WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 9PM TODAY OR EARLIER.

APCEDI will continue to monitor the progress of this system.

Please go to http://apcedi.blogspot.com// for the complete interactive alert on Cyclone Tomas.
________________________________________
Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator

To donate to AFAP's Disaster Preparedness, Relief and Rehabilitation Programs in Asia and the Pacific, go to http://www.afap.org and click on the "Donate On-Line" icon in the top right-hand corner.

To sign up for AFAP's free APCEDI email service, please go to http://www.afap.org/apcedi/ and register your email address.

APCEDI Alert SP/WF 19P Tomas #4-2010: Cyclone Tomas Bears Down on Fiji's Cikobia, Eastern Vanua Levu, Taveuni and the Northern Lau Group

The RSMC-Nadi Tropical Cyclone Centre, and the Joint Typhoon Warning Centre are issuing guidance on Cyclone Tomas, a tropical cyclone that is bearing down on Northeastern Fiji areas of Cikobia, Eastern Vanua Levu, Taveuni and the Northern Lau Group

This centre of this system is currently located 70 kms northeast of Fiji's Cikobia Island or 100 km northeast of Udu Point on Vanua Levu. It is moving south at 5 knots. Maximum sustained winds are 100 kts making Tomas a Category 3 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale. Most models are forecasting Cyclone Tomas to continue to slowly increase in strength and maintain a southerly course over the next 24-48 hours across Fiji's Lau Group.

A Hurricane Warning is now in force for the Eastern Half of Vanua Levu, Cikobia, Taveuni, Rabi, Koa, Yacata, Koro, Vanua Balavu, Gau, Cicia, Batiki, Nairai, Wakaya, Lakeba, Kabara, Moala, Makogai and nearby smaller islands. A Storm Warning remains in force for the rest of Vanua Levu, Ovalau, Matuku, Totoya and nearby smaller islands. A Gale Warning remains in force for the rest of the Fiji Group.

On its forecast track, Category 3 Cyclone Tomas should pass 40 kms east of Cikobia and then over the Ringold Isles later today east of Vanua Levu and Rabi Islands. Then it will pass just east of Taveuni, Qamea and Laucala. By tomorrow it should cross near or over Yacata, Cicia, Moala and Totoya still as a Category 3 Cyclone on the Saffir-Simpson Scale. This is a very dangerous situation for Northern and Eastern Fiji, especially for islands directly hit by the eyewall.

The residents of Vanua Levu, Cikobia, Taveuni, the Northern Lau Group and all surrounding islands should monitor this cyclone carefully and rush cyclone preparations to completion. All other area of Fiji should monitor the storm carefully and follow Government advice as required.

Residents of Futuna should continue to monitor the storm as it moves away from the island. Futuna is reporting widespread light to moderate damage especially to trees and crops, and some pockets of moderate structural damage to homes, but no major structural damage or casualties have been reported.

Special Weather Bulletin Number SEVENTEEN for Fiji ON TROPICAL CYCLONE TOMAS
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI at 10:12am on Monday the 15th of March 2010

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR EASTERN HALF OF VANUA LEVU, CIKOBIA, TAVEUNI, RABI, KIOA, YACATA, KORO, VANUA BALAVU, GAU, CICIA, BATIKI, NAIRAI, WAKAYA, LAKEBA, KABARA, MOALA, MAKOGAI AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS.

A STORM WARNING REMAINS FORCE FOR THE REST OF VANUA LEVU, OVALAU, MATUKU,TOTOYA, AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS.

A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR THE REST OF THE FIJI GROUP.

SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE TOMAS CENTRE 930HPA CATEGORY 4 WAS LOCATED NEAR 15 DECIMAL 3 SOUTH 179 DECIMAL 4 WEST OR ABOUT 185 KM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF TAVEUNI OR 390 KM NORTHEAST OF SUVA AT 10AM TODAY. CLOSE TO ITS CENTRE THE CYCLONE IS ESTIMATED TO HAVE AVERAGE WINDS OF 175 KM/HR INCREASING TO 205 KM/HR IN THE NEXT 18 TO 24 HOURS WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS UP TO 270 KM/HR . THE CYCLONE IS INTENSIFYING AND MOVING SOUTH AT 09 KM/HR.

ON THIS TRACK, THE CYCLONE CENTRE IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED ABOUT 65 KM NORTHEAST OF TAVEUNI OR 290KM NORTHEAST OF SUVA AT 10PM TONIGHT AND ABOUT 100KM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF TAVEUNI OR 215KM EAST-NORTHEAST OF SUVA AT 10AM TOMORROW MORNING.


EASTERN HALF OF VANUA LEVU, CIKOBIA, TAVEUNI, RABI, KIOA, YACATA, KORO, VANUA BALAVU, GAU, CICIA, BATIKI, NAIRAI, WAKAYA, LAKEBA, KABARA, MOALA, MAKOGAI AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS : WINDS INCREASING TO VERY DESTRUCTIVE HURRICANE FORCE WITH AVERAGE SPEEDS OF 170 KM/HR WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 230 KM/HR. FREQUENT HEAVY RAIN AND SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. PHENOMINAL SEAS. DAMAGING HEAVY SWELLS. FLOODING INCLUDING FLOODING OF LOW-LYING COASTAL AREAS.

FOR THE REST OF VANUA LEVU, OVALAU, MATUKU,TOTOYA, AND NEARBY SMALLERISLANDS : WINDS INCREASING TO DESTRUCTIVE STORM FORCE WITH AVERAGE SPEEDS OF 90KM/HR WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS 130 KM/HR. FREQUENT HEAVY RAIN AND SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. VERY HIGH SEAS. DAMAGING HEAVY SWELLS. FLOODING INCLUDING FLOODING OF LOW-LYING COASTAL AREAS.

FOR THE REST OF FIJI : WINDS INCREASING TO DAMAGING GALE FORCE WITH AVERAGE SPEEDS UP TO 75 KM/HR AND MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 110 KM/HR. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS. DAMAGING HEAVY SWELLS. FLOODING INCLUDING SEA FLOODING OF LOW-LYING COASTAL AREAS EXPECTED.

The following information is provided especially for the mariners: HURRICANE FORCE WINDS WITHIN 40 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE WITH PHENOMINAL SEAS. STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE WITH VERY HIGH SEAS. GALE FORCE WINDS WITHIN 150 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE WITH HIGH SEAS. STRONG WINDS OUTSIDE 150 MILES OF CENTER. VERY ROUGH SEAS. DAMAGING HEAVY SWELLS.

THE NEXT SPECIAL WEATHER BULLETIN FOR FIJI ON TC TOMAS WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 3PM TODAY OR EARLIER.

APCEDI will continue to monitor the progress of this system.

Please go to http://apcedi.blogspot.com// for the complete interactive alert on Cyclone Tomas.
________________________________________
Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator

To donate to AFAP's Disaster Preparedness, Relief and Rehabilitation Programs in Asia and the Pacific, go to http://www.afap.org and click on the "Donate On-Line" icon in the top right-hand corner.

To sign up for AFAP's free APCEDI email service, please go to http://www.afap.org/apcedi/ and register your email address.

APCEDI Alert SP/Vn 20P Ului #3-2010: Cyclone Ului Causing Damage while Passing South of Rennell and Bellona

The RSMC-Nadi Tropical Cyclone Centre, and the Joint Typhoon Warning Centre are issuing guidance on Cyclone Ului that is passing to the south of Rennell and Bellona in the Solomon Islands

This centre of Cyclone Ului is currently located 128 kms southeast of Rennell Island in the Solomon Islands. Cyclone Ului has continued to undergo rapid intensification through this morning and early afternoon. Maximum sustained winds are 140 kts making Ului a very powerful Category 5 Super Cyclone on the Saffir-Simpson Scale. Most models are forecasting Cyclone Ului to continue on a generally westerly course just to the south of the Southern Solomon Islands and then on toward the Louisiade Archipelago in Southeast Papua New Guinea.

A Tropical Cyclone Warning is now in effect for the Solomon Islands provinces of Makira, Rennell/Bellona, Guadalcanal, Malaita, Central and Western, and a Tropical Cyclone Watch is in place for Isabel and Choiseul Provinces including the Shortland Islands.

This is a very dangerous situation for Rennell (population 1,500) and Bellona (population 1000) as they will be closest to the centre as it passes to the south of the islands over the next 6-12 hours. Using current model forecasts, the centre of Ului should pass 80-100 kms south of Rennell this evening into tonight. That would leave the islands on the edge of sustained hurricane force wind belt of winds 64 knots or greater. Gusts will be much higher. Residents in Rennell and Bellona should rush cyclone preparations to completion at this point and heed all Government warnings. Solomon's news is reporting that many residents in Rennell and Bellona are now in shelters, and that already power is out in most areas and trees are down in some areas. Hopefully the storm centre will stay at least 80 km south and Rennell and Bellona will miss the eyewall and the most intense winds. The seas will be phenomenal across the area causing widespread coastal erosion and flooding of low lying areas.

All residents of other affected areas of the Solomon Islands should monitor this storm carefully, and heeding all Government warnings and advice. If required by the Government, cyclone preparations should be rushed to completion.

Residents of Papua New Guinea's Louisiade Group and the rest of Alotau Province should also monitor the storm carefully as it continues to moves west tomorrow.

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING NUMBER ELEVEN

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING NUMBER ELEVEN ISSUED BY THE SOLOMON ISLANDS METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE AT 5:00 PM THIS AFTERNOON 14TH MARCH 2010.

A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING IS NOW CURRENT FOR RENNELL/BELLONA, MAKIRA, GUADALCANAL, CENTRAL, WESTERN AND MALAITA PROVINCES WHILST A TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH ADVICE IS IN FORCE FOR ISABEL AND CHOISEUL PROVINCES INCLUDING SHORTLAND ISLANDS.

AT 2:00 PM THIS AFTERNOON, SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE ULUI (CATEGORY FIVE) WITH A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 930 HECTOPASCALS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.8 DEGREES SOUTH AND LONGITUDE 161.4 DEGREES EAST, THIS IS APPROXIMATELY 60 NAUTICAL MILES SOUTHEAST OF RENNELL ISLAND. SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE ULUI IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 07 KNOTS.

EXPECT MEAN MAXIMUM WINDS TO 115 KNOTS, WITH MAXIMUM GUSTS TO 155 KNOTS IN AREAS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE.

GALE FORCE WINDS (34 TO 47 KNOTS) WILL PERSIST OVER SOUTHERN MAKIRA PROVINCE AND EXPECT GALE FORCE WINDS (34 TO 47 KNOTS) OVER THE SOUTHERN GUADALCANAL AND THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF MALAITA WITHIN THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS AS THE CYCLONE MOVES SLIGHTLY NORTH ALONG ITS CURRENT MOVEMENT.

STORM FORCE WINDS (48 TO 63 KNOTS) IS NOW INFORCE FOR RENNELL/BELLONA PROVINCE AND EXPECT HURRICANE FORCE WINDS (64KNOTS AND ABOVE) IN THE NEXT 6 TO 10 HOURS.

EXPECT WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS INCREASING TO 33 KNOTS AT TIMES OVER TEMOTU, CENTRAL, ISABEL, CHOISEUL AND WESTERN PROVINCES INCLUDING SHORTLAND ISLANDS.

THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR COASTAL INUNDATION (COASTAL FLOODING) OVER LOW COASTAL AREAS OVER RENNELL/BELLONA, MAKIRA, MALAITA AND TEMOTU PROVINCES INCLUDING SOUTHERN GUADALCANAL, WESTERN AND RUSSELLS ISLANDS.

SEAS WILL BE VERY ROUGH WITH HIGH SWELLS.

HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS AT TIMES AND SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS IS ALSO EXPECTED OVER MOST OF THE PROVINCES WITH POSSIBLE FLOODING.

THE PEOPLE OF TEMOTU, RENNELL/BELLONA, MAKIRA, MALAITA, GUADALCANAL, ISABEL, CHOISEUL AND WESTERN PROVINCES INCLUDING SHORTLAND ISLANDS SHOULD CONSIDER ACTION THEY WILL NEED TO TAKE AS THE THREAT INCREASES AND TO LISTEN TO THE SIBC OR FM RADIOS FOR FURTHER ADVICES.

FOR FURTHER INFORMATION AND ADVICE, CALL - 933

NEXT UPDATE WILL BE ISSUED AT ANY TIME, WHEN NEW INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE.

DATE: 14TH MARCH 2010

APCEDI will continue to monitor the progress of this system.

Please go to http://apcedi.blogspot.com// for the complete interactive alert on Cyclone Ului.
________________________________________
Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator

To donate to AFAP's Disaster Preparedness, Relief and Rehabilitation Programs in Asia and the Pacific, go to http://www.afap.org and click on the "Donate On-Line" icon in the top right-hand corner.

To sign up for AFAP's free APCEDI email service, please go to http://www.afap.org/apcedi/ and register your email address.

APCEDI Alert SP/WF 19P Tomas #3-2010: Cyclone Tomas Bears Down on Fiji and Futuna

The RSMC-Nadi Tropical Cyclone Centre, and the Joint Typhoon Warning Centre are issuing guidance on Cyclone Tomas, a tropical cyclone that is bearing down on Northern Fiji and the French Island of Futuna.

This centre of this system is currently located 130 kms northwest of Futuna and 250 kms north-northeast of Fiji's Cikobia Island. It is moving south-southwest at 6 knots. Maximum sustained winds are 70 kts making Tomas a Category 1 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale. Most models are forecasting Cyclone Tomas to continue to slowly increase in strength and maintain a southerly course over the next 24-48 hours towards Fiji's Vanua Levu Island.

A Tropical Cyclone Warning is now in force for all of Fiji including Rotuma. A Storm Warning has been raised for Futuna and a Gale Warning is in force for the Southern Tuvalu atoll of Niulakita.

On its forecast track, Cyclone Tomas should pass about 120 kms west of Futuna this evening and into tonight. By tomorrow it should be approaching Cikobia and Vanua Levu possibly as a Category 2 Cyclone on the Saffir-Simpson Scale. This is a very dangerous situation for Northern Fiji, which is forecasted get a direct hit by the storm tomorrow into Tuesday.

The residents of Futuna, Vanua Levu, Cikobia, Taveuni, the Northern Lau Group and all surrounding islands should monitor this cyclone carefully and rush cyclone preparations to completion. All other area of Fiji, Wallis and Tuvalu should monitor the storm carefully and follow Government advice as required.

Special Weather Bulletin Number TWENTY-THREE for Wallis and Futuna
ON TROPICAL CYCLONE TOMAS ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Mar 14/0131 UTC 2010 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

A STORM WARNING IS NOW IN FORCE FOR FUTUNA.
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR WALLIS.

SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE TOMAS CENTRE 972HPA CATEGORY 3 WAS LOCATED NEAR 13 DECIMAL 5 SOUTH 179 DECIMAL 2 WEST OR 80 MILES NORTHWEST OF FUTUNA OR 180 MILES WEST OF WALLIS AT 140000 UTC. THE CYCLONE IS MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AT 09 KNOTS. CLOSE TO ITS CENTRE THE CYCLONE IS ESTIMATED TO HAVE SUSTAINED WINDS OF 65 KNOTS. EXPECT WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF THE CENTRE. EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF THE CENTRE. EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 150 NAUTICAL MILES OF THE CENTRE.

ON THIS TRACK, THE CYCLONE CENTRE IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED ABOUT 100 MILES WEST OF FUTUNA AND 230 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF WALLIS AT 141200 UTC AND ABOUT 145 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF FUTUNA OR ABOUT 275 MILES
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF WALLIS AT 150000 UTC.

FOR FUTUNA:
EXPECT DESTRUCTIVE STORM FORCE WINDS WITH AVERAGE SPEEDS OF 55 KNOTS WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 75 KNOTS, EASING TO DAMAGING GALE FORCE WINDS IN 12 TO 18 HOURS. FREQUENT HEAVY RAIN AND SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS.
VERY HIGH SEAS. DAMAGING HEAVY SWELLS.FLOODING INCLUDING SEA FLOODING OF LOW-LYING COASTAL AREAS.

FOR WALLIS:
STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS 25 TO 30 KNOTS GUSTING 50 KNOTS.FREQUENT HEAVY RAIN AND SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS.
VERY ROUGH SEAS. DAMAGING HEAVY SWELLS. FLOODING INCLUDING SEA FLOODING OF LOW-LYING COASTAL AREAS.

PLEASE ACKNOWLEDGE RECEIPT OF THIS BULLETIN.

________________________________________

Special Weather Bulletin Number TEN for Fiji ON TROPICAL CYCLONE TOMAS

ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI at 1:53pm on Sunday the 14th of March 2010

A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING IS IN FORCE FOR THE WHOLE FIJI GROUP.

SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE TOMAS CENTRE 972HPA CATEGORY 3 WAS LOCATED NEAR 13 DECIMAL 5 SOUTH 179 DECIMAL 2 WEST OR ABOUT 310KM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF UDU POINT AT 1PM TODAY. CLOSE TO ITS CENTRE THE CYCLONE IS ESTIMATED TO HAVE AVERAGE WINDS OF 120 KM/HR INCREASING TO 160 KM/HR WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS UP TO 220 KM/HR IN THE NEXT 18 TO 24 HOURS. THE CYCLONE IS INTENSIFYING AND MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AT 16 KM/HR. DAMAGING GALE FORCE WINDS EXTEND TO ABOUT 280 KM FROM THE CYCLONE CENTRE.


FOR VANUA LEVU, TAVEUNI AND NEARBY ISLANDS AND NORTHERN LAU GROUP: EXPECT WINDS TO STRENGHTEN FURTHER TODAY AND REACH DAMAGING GALE FORCE TONIGHT WITH AVERAGE SPEEDS OF 85 KM/HR AND MOMENTARY GUSTS OF 120 KM/HR. WINDS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO DESTRUCTIVE STORM FORCE TO VERY DESTRUCTIVE HURRICANE FORCE WITH AVERAGE SPEEDS UP TO 160 KM/HR WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS UP TO 220 KM/HR TOMORROW. PERIODS OF RAIN, BECOMING FREQUENT AND HEAVY WITH SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. DAMAGING HEAVY SWELLS. FLOODING INCLUDING SEA FLOODING OF LOW-LYING COASTAL AREAS EXPECTED.

FOR THE REST OF FIJI :
EASTERLY WINDS STRENGHTENING TODAY. WINDS REACHING DAMAGING GALE FORCE WITH AVERAGE SPEEDS UP TO 85 KM/HR AND GUSTS TO 120KM/HR TOMORROW. PERIODS OF RAIN, HEAVY AT TIMES AND SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS. DAMAGING HEAVY SWELLS. FLOODING INCLUDING SEA FLOODING OF LOW-LYING COASTAL AREAS EXPECTED.

The following information is provided especially for the mariners:
EXPECT WINDS OF HURRICANE FORCE AND PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF THE CENTRE. STORM FORCE WINDS AND VERY HIGH SEAS OUT TO ABOUT 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF THE CENTRE. GALE FORCE WINDS AND HIGH SEAS OUT TO ABOUT 150 NAUTICAL MILES FROM THE CENTRE. STRONG WINDS AND VERY ROUGH SEAS GREATER THAN 150 NAUTICAL MILES AWAY FROM THE CENTRE.

THE NEXT SPECIAL WEATHER BULLETIN WILL BE ISSUED AT 6.30 PM TODAY OR EARLIER

APCEDI will continue to monitor the progress of this system.

Please go to http://apcedi.blogspot.com// for the complete interactive alert on Cyclone Tomas.
________________________________________
Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator

To donate to AFAP's Disaster Preparedness, Relief and Rehabilitation Programs in Asia and the Pacific, go to http://www.afap.org and click on the "Donate On-Line" icon in the top right-hand corner.

To sign up for AFAP's free APCEDI email service, please go to http://www.afap.org/apcedi/ and register your email address.

APCEDI Alert SP/Vn 20P Ului #2-2010: Cyclone Ului bears down on Rennell and Bellona in Solomon Islands

The RSMC-Nadi Tropical Cyclone Centre, and the Joint Typhoon Warning Centre are issuing guidance on Cyclone Ului that is currently approaching Rennell and Bellona in the Solomon Islands This is the second cyclonic storm to affect the South Pacific at this time along with Cyclone Tomas, which is approaching Fiji.

This centre of Cyclone Ului is currently located 157 kms southeast of Rennell Island in the Solomon Islands. Cyclone Ului underwent rapid strengthening yesterday. Maximum sustained winds are 100 kts making Ului a strong Category 3 Cyclone on the Saffir-Simpson Scale. Most models are forecasting Cyclone Ului to on a generally westerly course toward the Southern Solomon Islands and the Louisiade Archipelago in Southeast Papua New Guinea.

A Tropical Cyclone Warning is now in effect for the Solomon Islands provinces of Makira, Rennell/Bellona, Guadalcanal, Malaita and Central, and a Tropical Cyclone Watch is in place for Western, ISabel and Choiseul Provinces including the Shortland Islands.

This is a particularly dangerous situation for Rennell and Bellona as they will be closest to the centre as it passes to the south of the islands later today into tonight. Using current model forecasts, the centre of Ului should pass 80 kms south of Rennell this evening into tonight and early tomorrow morning. Residents in Rennell and Bellona should rush cyclone preparations to completion at this point and heed all Government warnings.

All residents of other affected areas of the Solomon Islands should monitor this storm carefully, and heeding all Government warnings and advice. If required by the Government, cyclone preparations should be rushed to completion.

Residents of Papua New Guinea's Louisiade Group and the rest of Alotau Province should also monitor the storm carefully as it continues to moves west tomorrow.

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING NUMBER NINE


TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING NUMBER NINE ISSUED BY THE SOLOMON ISLANDS METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE AT 7:00 AM THIS MORNING 14TH MARCH 2010.

A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING IS NOW CURRENT FOR RENNELL/BELLONA, MAKIRA, GUADALCANAL, CENTRAL AND MALAITA PROVINCES WHILST A TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH ADVICE IS IN FORCE FOR WESTERN, ISABEL AND CHOISEUL PROVINCES INCLUDING SHORTLAND ISLANDS.

AT 5:00 AM THIS MORING, TROPICAL CYCLONE ULUI (CATEGORY THREE) WITH A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 945 HECTOPASCALS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.0 DEGREES SOUTH AND LONGITUDE 162.4 DEGREES EAST, THIS IS APPROXIMATELY 120 NAUTICAL MILES SOUTHEAST OF RENNELL ISLAND. CYCLONE ULUI IS MOVING WEST AT 06 KNOTS AND INTENSIFYING.

EXPECT MEAN MAXIMUM WINDS TO 100 KNOTS, WITH MAXIMUM GUSTS TO 140 KNOTS IN AREAS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE.

GALE FORCE WINDS (34 TO 47 KNOTS) IS NOW INFORCE FOR RENNELL/BELLONA AND SOUTHERN MAKIRA PROVINCES.

EXPECT STORM FORCE WINDS (48 TO 64 KNOTS) OVER RENNELL/BELLONA IN THE NEXT 6 TO 10 HOURS AND HURRICANE FORCE WINDS (ABOVE 64KNOTS) IN THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS.

EXPECT WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS INCREASING TO 30 KNOTS AT TIMES OVER TEMOTU, MALAITA, CENTRAL, GUADALCANAL, ISABEL, CHOISEUL AND WESTERN PROVINCES INCLUDING SHORTLAND ISLANDS.

THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR COASTAL INUNDATION (COASTAL FLOODING) OVER LOW COASTAL AREAS OVER RENNELL/BELLONA, MAKIRA AND TEMOTU INCLUDING SOUTHERN GUADALCANAL AND RUSSELLS AND NORTHERN MALAITA ISLANDS.

SEAS WILL BE VERY ROUGH WITH HIGH SWELLS.

HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS AT TIMES IS ALSO EXPECTED OVER MAKIRA, RENNELL/BELLONA GUADALCANAL, CENTRAL AND MALAITA PROVINCES WITH POSSIBLE FLOODING.

THE PEOPLE OF TEMOTU, RENNELL/BELLONA, MAKIRA, MALAITA, CENTRAL, GUADALCANAL, ISABEL, CHOISEUL AND WESTERN PROVINCES INCLUDING SHORTLAND ISLANDS SHOULD CONSIDER ACTION THEY WILL NEED TO TAKE AS THE THREAT INCREASES AND TO LISTEN TO THE SIBC OR FM RADIOS FOR FURTHER ADVICES.

FOR FURTHER INFORMATION AND ADVICE, CALL - 933

NEXT UPDATE WILL BE ISSUED AT 1:00 PM THIS AFTERNOON.
DATE: 14TH MARCH 2010

APCEDI will continue to monitor the progress of this system.

Please go to http://apcedi.blogspot.com// for the complete interactive alert on Cyclone Ului.
________________________________________
Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator

To donate to AFAP's Disaster Preparedness, Relief and Rehabilitation Programs in Asia and the Pacific, go to http://www.afap.org and click on the "Donate On-Line" icon in the top right-hand corner.

To sign up for AFAP's free APCEDI email service, please go to http://www.afap.org/apcedi/ and register your email address.

APCEDI Alert SP/Vn 20P Ului #1-2010: Cyclone Ului forms west of Espiritu Santo, Vanuatu; Threatens Solomon Islands

The RSMC-Nadi Tropical Cyclone Centre, and the Joint Typhoon Warning Centre are issuing guidance on Cyclone Ului that formed yesterday off the northwest coast of Espiritu Santo in Northern Vanuatu. This is the second cyclonic storm to affect the South Pacific at this time along with Cyclone Tomas, which is approaching Fiji.

This centre of Cyclone Ului is currently located 180 kms northwest of Cape Cumberland (Cape Nahoi) on the Northwest tip of Espiritu Santo or 530 kms southeast of Rennell Island in the Solomon Islands. Maximum sustained winds are 50 kts making Tomas a strong tropical storm. Cyclone Ului is expected to slowly strengthen into tomorrow and will likely reach Category 1 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale. Most models are forecasting Cyclone Ului to on a generally westerly course toward the Southern Solomon Islands and the Louisiade Archipelago in Southeast Papua New Guinea.

A Tropical Cyclone Warning is now in effect for the Solomon Islands locations of Temotu, Makira and Rennell/Bellona and a Tropical Cyclone Watch is in place for Malaita and Guadalcanal.

All residents of the affected areas of the Solomon Islands should monitor this storm carefully, and heeding all Government warnings and advice. If required by the Government, cyclone preparations should be rushed to completion.

Residents of Northern Vanuatu should continue to monitor the storm as it moves away from the region. Fortunately when the system moved across Northern Vanuatu in the last few days, it was only a tropical depression, so damage was minor.

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING NUMBER THREE

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING NUMBER THREE ISSUED BY THE SOLOMON ISLANDS METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE AT 10:30 AM THIS MORNING 13TH MARCH 2010.

A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING IS NOW CURRENT FOR TEMOTU, MAKIRA AND RENNELL/BELLONA PROVINCE WHILST A TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH ADVICE IS IN FORCE FOR MALAITA AND GUADALCANAL PROVINCES.

AT 5:00 AM THIS MORNING, TROPICAL CYCLONE ULUI (CATEGORY TWO) WITH A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 985 HECTOPASCALS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.0 DEGREES SOUTH AND LONGITUDE 165.0 DEGREES EAST, THIS IS APPROXIMATELY 180 NAUTICAL MILES SOUTHWEST OF VANIKORO ISLAND, TEMOTU PROVINCE. CYCLONE ULUI IS SLOWING MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 10 KNOTS AND INTENSIFYING.

EXPECT MEAN MAXIMUM WINDS TO 50 KNOTS, WITH MAXIMUM GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS IN AREAS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE.

EXPECT GALE FORCE WINDS (34 TO 47 KNOTS) TO DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN TEMOTU ISLANDS INCLUDING SANTA CRUZ ISLAND WITHIN THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS AND MAY DEVELOP ABOUT RENNELL/BELLONA ISLANDS IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

EXPECT WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS INCREASING TO 30 KNOTS AT TIMES ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN MAKIRA, NORTHERN MALAITA AND SOUTHERN GUADALCANAL.

SEAS WILL BE ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH WITH MODERATE TO HIGH SWELLS.

THE PEOPLE OF TEMOTU, RENNELL/BELLONA, MAKIRA, MALAITA, GUADALCANAL AND PROVINCES SHOULD CONSIDER ACTION THEY WILL NEED TO TAKE AS THE THREAT INCREASES AND TO LISTEN TO THE SIBC OR FM RADIOS FOR FURTHER ADVICES.

NEXT UPDATE WILL BE ISSUED AT 2:00 PM THIS AFTERNOON.

DATE: 13TH MARCH 2010

APCEDI will continue to monitor the progress of this system.

Please go to http://www.afap.org/apcedi/ for the complete interactive alert on Cyclone Ului.
________________________________________
Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator

To donate to AFAP's Disaster Preparedness, Relief and Rehabilitation Programs in Asia and the Pacific, go to http://www.afap.org and click on the "Donate On-Line" icon in the top right-hand corner.

To sign up for AFAP's free APCEDI email service, please go to http://www.afap.org/apcedi/ and register your email address.

APCEDI Alert SP/WF 19P Tomas #2-2010: Cyclone Tomas Threatens Fiji and Wallis and Futuna

The RSMC-Nadi Tropical Cyclone Centre, and the Joint Typhoon Warning Centre are issuing guidance on Cyclone Tomas, a tropical cyclone that is moving northwest of the French Territory of Wallis and Futuna.

This centre of this system is currently located 300 kms northwest of capital city Matāʻutu on Wallis Island and 325 kms north of Futuna. It is moving west at 7 knots. Maximum sustained winds are 55 kts making Tomas a strong tropical storm. Cyclone Tomas is expected to slowly strengthen into tomorrow and will likely reach Category 1 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale. Most models are forecasting Cyclone Tomas to slowly turn toward the south-southwest over the next 24-48 hours towards Fiji.

A Tropical Cyclone Alert is now in force for all of Fiji including Rotuma. A Gale Warning is in place for all of Wallis and Futuna.

All residents of Wallis and Futuna and Fiji should monitor this cyclone carefully and follow Government advice. Where required by Government, all cyclone preparations should be rushed to completion.

Special Weather Bulletin Number FOURTEEN for Wallis and Futuna ON
TROPICAL CYCLONE TOMAS ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Mar 12/2222 UTC 2010 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

A GALE WARNING IS NOW IN FORCE FOR WALLIS AND FUTUNA.

TROPICAL CYCLONE TOMAS CENTRE 985HPA CATEGORY 2 WAS LOCATED NEAR 11 DECIMAL 3 SOUTH 178 DECIMAL 2 WEST OR 165 MILES NORTHWEST OF WALLIS OR 180 MILES NORTH OF FUTUNA AT 122100 UTC. THE CYCLONE IS MOVING WEST AT 06 KNOTS. CLOSE TO ITS CENTRE THE CYCLONE IS ESTIMATED HAVE SUSTAINED WINDS OF 55 KNOTS INCREASING TO 75 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 18 TO 24 HOURS. EXPECT WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF THE CENTRE IN 12 TO 18 HOURS. EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE. EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 150 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE.

ON THIS TRACK, THE CYCLONE CENTRE IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED ABOUT 135 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF FUTUNA AND 175 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF WALLIS AND ABOUT AT 130900 UTC AND ABOUT 115 MILES NORTHWEST OF FUTUNA OR ABOUT 210 MILES WEST OF WALLIS AT 132100 UTC.

FOR WALLIS:
DAMAGING GALE FORCE WINDS WITH AVERAGE SPEEDS OF 40 KNOTS WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. FREQUENT HEAVY RAIN AND SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH SEAS. DAMAGING HEAVY SWELLS. FLOODING INCLUDING SEA FLOODING OF LOW-LYING COASTAL AREAS EXPECTED.

FOR FUTUNA:
WINDS INCREASING TO DAMAGING GALE FORCE WITH AVERAGE SPEEDS OF 40 KNOTS WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. RAIN BECOMING MORE FREQUENT AND HEAVY WITH SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS.
DAMAGING HEAVY SWELLS. FLOODING INCLUDING SEA FLOODING OF LOW-LYING COASTAL AREAS EXPECTED.

PLEASE ACKNOWLEDGE RECEIPT OF THIS BULLETIN.

THE NEXT SPECIAL WEATHER BULLETIN FOR WALLIS AND FUTUNA WILL BE ISSUED AT 130130 UTC OR EARLIER.

________________________________________

Special Weather Bulletin Number FOUR FOR FIJI ON TROPICAL CYLONE TOMAS ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI at 8:06am on Saturday the 13th of March 2010

TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT.

A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT REMAINS IN FORCE FOR THE WHOLE FIJI GROUP.

TROPICAL CYCLONE TOMAS CENTRE 985HPA CAT 2 WAS LOCATED NEAR 11 DECIMAL 1 SOUTH 178 DECIMAL 0 WEST OR ABOUT 600 KM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF UDU POINT AT 7AM TODAY. CLOSE TO ITS CENTRE THE CYCLONE IS
ESTIMATED TO HAVE AVERAGE WINDS OF 95 KM/HR INCREASING TO 140 KM/HR IN THE NEXT 18 TO 24 HOURS. THE CYCLONE IS NOW MOVING WEST AT 13 KM/HR AND IS INTENSIFYING. ON THIS FORECAST TRACK THE CYCLONE MAY BRING DAMAGING GALE FORCE WINDS OVER MOST PARTS OF FIJI IN THE NEXT 30 TO 48 HOURS.

FOR FIJI:
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASING TO 35 TO 45 KM/HR WITH GUSTS TO 65 KM/HR, POSSIBLY INCREASING TO DAMAGING GALE FORCE IN THE NEXT 30 TO 48 HOURS. OCCASIONAL RAIN, BECOMING FREQUENT WITH SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. DAMAGING HEAVY SWELLS DEVELOPING. FLOODING INCLUDING SEA FLOODING OF LOW-LYING COASTAL AREAS POSSIBLE.

FOR ROTUMA :
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS BECOMING FRESH AND GUSTY. OCCASIONAL RAIN AND SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. ROUGH SEAS. HEAVY SWELLS .THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS PROVIDED ESPECIALLY FOR THE MARINERS: A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR ALL FIJI WATERS. EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS, INCREASING TO 30 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 45 KNOTS IN 18 TO 24 HOURS. ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS. DAMAGING HEAVY SWELLS DEVELOPING.

THE NEXT SPECIAL WEATHER BULLETIN WILL BE ISSUED AT 3.30 PM TODAY.



APCEDI will continue to monitor the progress of this system.

Please go to http://www.afap.org/apcedi/ for the complete interactive alert on Cyclone Tomas.
________________________________________
Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator

To donate to AFAP's Disaster Preparedness, Relief and Rehabilitation Programs in Asia and the Pacific, go to http://www.afap.org and click on the "Donate On-Line" icon in the top right-hand corner.

To sign up for AFAP's free APCEDI email service, please go to http://www.afap.org/apcedi/ and register your email address.

APCEDI Alert SP/WF 19P Tomas #1-2010: Cyclone Tomas forms north of Wallis and Futuna

The RSMC-Nadi Tropical Cyclone Centre, and the Joint Typhoon Warning Centre are issuing guidance on Cyclone Tomas, a tropical cyclone that has formed earlier today north of the French Territory of Wallis and Futuna.

This centre of this system is currently located 300 kms north of capital city Matāʻutu on Wallis Island. It is moving west at 6 knots. Maximum sustained winds are 35 kts making Tomas a weak tropical storm. Cyclone Tomas is expected to slowly strengthen into tomorrow and may reach Category 1 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale. Most models are forecasting Cyclone Tomas to slowly turn toward the south-southwest over the next 24-48 hours towards Fiji.

A cyclone alert has been raised for Futuna Island. A gale wind warning is now in place for Wallis and a strong wind warning in place for Futuna.

All residents of Wallis and Futuna should monitor this cyclone carefully and follow Government advice. Residents across Fiji should also monitor this system closely as forecasts are indicating that Cyclone Tomas may approach in 48-72 hours.

Special Weather Bulletin Number SEVEN for Wallis and Futuna ON TROPICAL CYCLONE TOMAS

ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Mar 12/0130 UTC 2010 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

GALE WIND WARNING IS NOW IN FORCE FOR WALLIS. A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT REMAINS IN FORCE FOR FUTUNA. A STRONG WIND WARNING IS NOW IN FORCE FOR FUTUNA.

TROPICAL CYCLONE TOMAS 995HPA CENTRE LOCATED NEAR 10 DECIMAL 6 SOUTH 176 DECIMAL 2 WEST OR 155 MILES NORTH OF WALLIS OR 250 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF FUTUNA AT 120000 UTC. THE CYCLONE IS MOVING WEST AT 06 KNOTS. IT WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. EXPECT SUSTAINED CLOCKWISE WINDS OF 35 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE. EXPECT CLOCKWISE WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE OF THE CENTRE. EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 40 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE BY 121800UTC.

ON THIS TRACK, THE CYCLONE CENTRE IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED ABOUT 145 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF WALLIS AND ABOUT 200 MILES NORTH-NOTHEAST OF FUTUNA AT 121200 UTC AND ABOUT 145 MILES NORTHWEST OF WALLIS OR ABOUT 145 MILES NORTH OF FUTUNA AT 130000 UTC.

FOR WALLIS:
DAMAGING GALE FORCE WINDS WITH AVERAGE SPEEDS OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 55 KNOTS. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS. DAMAGING HEAVY SWELLS. FLOODING INCLUDING SEA FLOODING OF LOW-LYING COASTAL AREAS EXPECTED.

FOR FUTUNA:
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASING TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS. WINDS MAY INCREASE TO DAMAGING GALE FORCE IN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. RAIN BECOMING MORE FREQUENT AND HEAVY WITH SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. VERY ROUGH SEAS. DAMAGING HEAVY SWELLS DEVELOPING. FLOODING INCLUDING SEA FLOODING OF LOW-LYING COASTAL AREAS EXPECTED.

PLEASE ACKNOWLEDGE RECEIPT OF THIS BULLETIN.

THE NEXT SPECIAL WEATHER BULLETIN FOR WALLIS AND FUTUNA WILL BE ISSUED AT 120430 UTC OR EARLIER.

APCEDI will continue to monitor the progress of this system.

Please go to the AFAP APCEDI WebSite for the complete interactive alert on Cyclone Tomas.
________________________________________
Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator

To donate to AFAP's Disaster Preparedness, Relief and Rehabilitation Programs in Asia and the Pacific, go to http://www.afap.org and click on the "Donate On-Line" icon in the top right-hand corner.

To sign up for AFAP's free APCEDI email service, please go to http://www.afap.org/apcedi/ and register your email address.