APCEDI Alert SP/WF 19P Tomas #5-2010: Cyclone Tomas Continues to Batter Lau Group as Fiji Government Declares State of Emergency

The RSMC-Nadi Tropical Cyclone Centre, and the Joint Typhoon Warning Centre are issuing guidance on Cyclone Tomas, a tropical cyclone that continues to batter the Lau Group.

This centre of this system is currently located 50 kms southeast of Totoya Island, 50 km southwest of Kambara Island and about 150 kms northwest of Ona-I-Lau, the next major island in its path. It is moving south at 13 knots. Maximum sustained winds are 90 kts making Tomas a Category 2 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale. Tomas peaked in intensity yesterday, and most models are now forecasting Cyclone Tomas to continue to slowly decrease in strength and maintain a southerly course over the next 24-48 hours across the remainder of Fiji's Southern Lau Group.

A Hurricane Warning is now in force for the Ona-I-Lau, Vatoa and nearby smaller islands. A Storm Warning remains in force for Kabara, Moala, Matuku, Totoya and nearby smaller islands. A Gale Warning remains in force for Gau, Batiki, Nairai, Vanua Balavu, Cicia, Nayau, Lakeba and nearby islands. A strong wind warning is in place for the rest of Fiji.

Tomas followed very closely to its forecasted track yesterday. Today, Tomas should pass 100 kms west of Vatoa and then over or very near Ona-I-Lau before exiting into the open waters of the South Pacific. It should pass well to the west of the Tongan capital Nuku 'Alofa by about 300 km.

Early today the Fiji Government declared a State of Emergency in Northern and Eastern Regions. Government authorities have not been able to establish communications with Cikobia and areas of the Ringgold Isles (Qelelevu) since the cyclone passed across yesterday. Lots of damage to trees and crops is being reported across Eastern Vanua Levu and Taveuni with damage to structures starting to come in. Navy boats are headed out tomorrow to start surveys across the region.

Inhabited Islands that have had a direct or near direct hit (50 km or less from centre) include Cikobia, Ringgold Isles (Qelelevu), Rabi, Taveuni, Laucala, Qamea, Matagi, Naitaba, Mago, Yacata, Vatu Vara, Cicia, Nayau, Vanua Vatu, Moala, Totoya and Kambara. Ona-I-Lau will likely receive a direct or near direct before the cyclone moves out.

The residents of the Lau Group and all surrounding islands should monitor this cyclone carefully as it begins to exit the region. All other areas of Fiji should monitor the storm carefully and follow Government advice as required.

Special Weather Bulletin Number TWENTY-SEVEN for Fiji ON TROPICAL CYCLONE TOMAS

ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI at 4:37pm on Tuesday the 16th of March 2010

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR ONO-I-LAU, VATOA AND NEARBY ISLANDS.

A STORM WARNING REMAINS FORCE FOR KABARA, MOALA, MATUKU,TOTOYA, AND NEARBY ISLANDS.

A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR GAU, BATIKI, NAIRAI, VANUA BALAVU, CICIA, NAYAU, LAKEBA AND NEARBY ISLANDS.

A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR THE REST OF THE FIJI GROUP.

SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE TOMAS CENTRE 940HPA CATEGORY 4 WAS LOCATED NEAR 19 DECIMAL 3 SOUTH 179 DECIMAL 4 WEST OR ABOUT 170KM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF ONO-I-LAU OR 265 KM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SUVA AT 4PM TODAY. CLOSE TO ITS CENTRE THE CYCLONE IS ESTIMATED TO HAVE AVERAGE WINDS OF 165 KM/HR EASING TO 100 KM/HR WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE CYCLONE IS MOVING SOUTH AT 24 KM/HR.

ON THIS TRACK, THE CYCLONE CENTRE IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED ABOUT 110 KM SOUTH OF ONO-I-LAU OR 500 KM SOUTHEAST OF SUVA 4AM TOMORROW AND ABOUT 550 KM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF ONO-I-LAU AT 4PM TOMORROW.

FOR ONO-I-LAU, VATOA AND NEARBY ISLANDS:
WINDS TO VERY DESTRUCTIVE HURRICANE FORCE WITH AVERAGE SPEEDS OF 165 KM/HR WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 230 KM/HR. FREQUENT HEAVY RAIN AND SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. PHENOMINAL SEAS. DAMAGING HEAVY SWELLS. FLOODING INCLUDING FLOODING OF LOW-LYING COASTAL AREAS.

FOR KABARA, MOALA, MATUKU,TOTOYA, AND NEARBY ISLANDS:
WINDS TO DESTRUCTIVE STORM FORCE WITH AVERAGE SPEEDS OF 90 KM/HR WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS 130 KM/HR. FREQUENT HEAVY RAIN AND SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. VERY HIGH SEAS. DAMAGING HEAVY SWELLS. FLOODING INCLUDING FLOODING OF LOW-LYING COASTAL AREAS.

FOR GAU, BATIKI, NAIRAI, VANUA BALAVU, CICIA, NAYAU, LAKEBA AND NEARBY ISLANDS:
WINDS TO DAMAGING GALE FORCE WITH AVERAGE SPEEDS UP TO 75 KM/HR AND MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 110 KM/HR. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS. DAMAGING HEAVY SWELLS. FLOODING INCLUDING SEA FLOODING OF LOW-LYING COASTAL AREAS EXPECTED.

FOR THE REST OF FIJI:
FRESH TO STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS. CLOUDY WITH OCCASIONAL RAIN, HEAVY AT TIMES AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. POSSIBLE FLOODING IN LOW-LYING AREAS. ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS. HEAVY SWELLS.

The following information is provided especially for the mariners:
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE WITH PHENOMINAL SEAS FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS. STORM FORCE WINDS WITH VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE, REDUCING TO 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE WITHIN 24 HOURS. GALE FORCE WINDS WITH HIGH SEAS WITHIN 150 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN THE EASTERN SECTORS AND WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN THE WESTERN SECTORS. ELSEWHERE, FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WITH ROUGH SEAS. DAMAGING HEAVY SWELLS.

THE NEXT SPECIAL WEATHER BULLETIN FOR FIJI ON TC TOMAS WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 9PM TODAY OR EARLIER.

APCEDI will continue to monitor the progress of this system.

Please go to http://apcedi.blogspot.com// for the complete interactive alert on Cyclone Tomas.
________________________________________
Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator

To donate to AFAP's Disaster Preparedness, Relief and Rehabilitation Programs in Asia and the Pacific, go to http://www.afap.org and click on the "Donate On-Line" icon in the top right-hand corner.

To sign up for AFAP's free APCEDI email service, please go to http://www.afap.org/apcedi/ and register your email address.

APCEDI Alert SP/WF 19P Tomas #4-2010: Cyclone Tomas Bears Down on Fiji's Cikobia, Eastern Vanua Levu, Taveuni and the Northern Lau Group

The RSMC-Nadi Tropical Cyclone Centre, and the Joint Typhoon Warning Centre are issuing guidance on Cyclone Tomas, a tropical cyclone that is bearing down on Northeastern Fiji areas of Cikobia, Eastern Vanua Levu, Taveuni and the Northern Lau Group

This centre of this system is currently located 70 kms northeast of Fiji's Cikobia Island or 100 km northeast of Udu Point on Vanua Levu. It is moving south at 5 knots. Maximum sustained winds are 100 kts making Tomas a Category 3 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale. Most models are forecasting Cyclone Tomas to continue to slowly increase in strength and maintain a southerly course over the next 24-48 hours across Fiji's Lau Group.

A Hurricane Warning is now in force for the Eastern Half of Vanua Levu, Cikobia, Taveuni, Rabi, Koa, Yacata, Koro, Vanua Balavu, Gau, Cicia, Batiki, Nairai, Wakaya, Lakeba, Kabara, Moala, Makogai and nearby smaller islands. A Storm Warning remains in force for the rest of Vanua Levu, Ovalau, Matuku, Totoya and nearby smaller islands. A Gale Warning remains in force for the rest of the Fiji Group.

On its forecast track, Category 3 Cyclone Tomas should pass 40 kms east of Cikobia and then over the Ringold Isles later today east of Vanua Levu and Rabi Islands. Then it will pass just east of Taveuni, Qamea and Laucala. By tomorrow it should cross near or over Yacata, Cicia, Moala and Totoya still as a Category 3 Cyclone on the Saffir-Simpson Scale. This is a very dangerous situation for Northern and Eastern Fiji, especially for islands directly hit by the eyewall.

The residents of Vanua Levu, Cikobia, Taveuni, the Northern Lau Group and all surrounding islands should monitor this cyclone carefully and rush cyclone preparations to completion. All other area of Fiji should monitor the storm carefully and follow Government advice as required.

Residents of Futuna should continue to monitor the storm as it moves away from the island. Futuna is reporting widespread light to moderate damage especially to trees and crops, and some pockets of moderate structural damage to homes, but no major structural damage or casualties have been reported.

Special Weather Bulletin Number SEVENTEEN for Fiji ON TROPICAL CYCLONE TOMAS
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI at 10:12am on Monday the 15th of March 2010

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR EASTERN HALF OF VANUA LEVU, CIKOBIA, TAVEUNI, RABI, KIOA, YACATA, KORO, VANUA BALAVU, GAU, CICIA, BATIKI, NAIRAI, WAKAYA, LAKEBA, KABARA, MOALA, MAKOGAI AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS.

A STORM WARNING REMAINS FORCE FOR THE REST OF VANUA LEVU, OVALAU, MATUKU,TOTOYA, AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS.

A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR THE REST OF THE FIJI GROUP.

SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE TOMAS CENTRE 930HPA CATEGORY 4 WAS LOCATED NEAR 15 DECIMAL 3 SOUTH 179 DECIMAL 4 WEST OR ABOUT 185 KM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF TAVEUNI OR 390 KM NORTHEAST OF SUVA AT 10AM TODAY. CLOSE TO ITS CENTRE THE CYCLONE IS ESTIMATED TO HAVE AVERAGE WINDS OF 175 KM/HR INCREASING TO 205 KM/HR IN THE NEXT 18 TO 24 HOURS WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS UP TO 270 KM/HR . THE CYCLONE IS INTENSIFYING AND MOVING SOUTH AT 09 KM/HR.

ON THIS TRACK, THE CYCLONE CENTRE IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED ABOUT 65 KM NORTHEAST OF TAVEUNI OR 290KM NORTHEAST OF SUVA AT 10PM TONIGHT AND ABOUT 100KM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF TAVEUNI OR 215KM EAST-NORTHEAST OF SUVA AT 10AM TOMORROW MORNING.


EASTERN HALF OF VANUA LEVU, CIKOBIA, TAVEUNI, RABI, KIOA, YACATA, KORO, VANUA BALAVU, GAU, CICIA, BATIKI, NAIRAI, WAKAYA, LAKEBA, KABARA, MOALA, MAKOGAI AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS : WINDS INCREASING TO VERY DESTRUCTIVE HURRICANE FORCE WITH AVERAGE SPEEDS OF 170 KM/HR WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 230 KM/HR. FREQUENT HEAVY RAIN AND SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. PHENOMINAL SEAS. DAMAGING HEAVY SWELLS. FLOODING INCLUDING FLOODING OF LOW-LYING COASTAL AREAS.

FOR THE REST OF VANUA LEVU, OVALAU, MATUKU,TOTOYA, AND NEARBY SMALLERISLANDS : WINDS INCREASING TO DESTRUCTIVE STORM FORCE WITH AVERAGE SPEEDS OF 90KM/HR WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS 130 KM/HR. FREQUENT HEAVY RAIN AND SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. VERY HIGH SEAS. DAMAGING HEAVY SWELLS. FLOODING INCLUDING FLOODING OF LOW-LYING COASTAL AREAS.

FOR THE REST OF FIJI : WINDS INCREASING TO DAMAGING GALE FORCE WITH AVERAGE SPEEDS UP TO 75 KM/HR AND MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 110 KM/HR. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS. DAMAGING HEAVY SWELLS. FLOODING INCLUDING SEA FLOODING OF LOW-LYING COASTAL AREAS EXPECTED.

The following information is provided especially for the mariners: HURRICANE FORCE WINDS WITHIN 40 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE WITH PHENOMINAL SEAS. STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE WITH VERY HIGH SEAS. GALE FORCE WINDS WITHIN 150 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE WITH HIGH SEAS. STRONG WINDS OUTSIDE 150 MILES OF CENTER. VERY ROUGH SEAS. DAMAGING HEAVY SWELLS.

THE NEXT SPECIAL WEATHER BULLETIN FOR FIJI ON TC TOMAS WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 3PM TODAY OR EARLIER.

APCEDI will continue to monitor the progress of this system.

Please go to http://apcedi.blogspot.com// for the complete interactive alert on Cyclone Tomas.
________________________________________
Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator

To donate to AFAP's Disaster Preparedness, Relief and Rehabilitation Programs in Asia and the Pacific, go to http://www.afap.org and click on the "Donate On-Line" icon in the top right-hand corner.

To sign up for AFAP's free APCEDI email service, please go to http://www.afap.org/apcedi/ and register your email address.

APCEDI Alert SP/Vn 20P Ului #3-2010: Cyclone Ului Causing Damage while Passing South of Rennell and Bellona

The RSMC-Nadi Tropical Cyclone Centre, and the Joint Typhoon Warning Centre are issuing guidance on Cyclone Ului that is passing to the south of Rennell and Bellona in the Solomon Islands

This centre of Cyclone Ului is currently located 128 kms southeast of Rennell Island in the Solomon Islands. Cyclone Ului has continued to undergo rapid intensification through this morning and early afternoon. Maximum sustained winds are 140 kts making Ului a very powerful Category 5 Super Cyclone on the Saffir-Simpson Scale. Most models are forecasting Cyclone Ului to continue on a generally westerly course just to the south of the Southern Solomon Islands and then on toward the Louisiade Archipelago in Southeast Papua New Guinea.

A Tropical Cyclone Warning is now in effect for the Solomon Islands provinces of Makira, Rennell/Bellona, Guadalcanal, Malaita, Central and Western, and a Tropical Cyclone Watch is in place for Isabel and Choiseul Provinces including the Shortland Islands.

This is a very dangerous situation for Rennell (population 1,500) and Bellona (population 1000) as they will be closest to the centre as it passes to the south of the islands over the next 6-12 hours. Using current model forecasts, the centre of Ului should pass 80-100 kms south of Rennell this evening into tonight. That would leave the islands on the edge of sustained hurricane force wind belt of winds 64 knots or greater. Gusts will be much higher. Residents in Rennell and Bellona should rush cyclone preparations to completion at this point and heed all Government warnings. Solomon's news is reporting that many residents in Rennell and Bellona are now in shelters, and that already power is out in most areas and trees are down in some areas. Hopefully the storm centre will stay at least 80 km south and Rennell and Bellona will miss the eyewall and the most intense winds. The seas will be phenomenal across the area causing widespread coastal erosion and flooding of low lying areas.

All residents of other affected areas of the Solomon Islands should monitor this storm carefully, and heeding all Government warnings and advice. If required by the Government, cyclone preparations should be rushed to completion.

Residents of Papua New Guinea's Louisiade Group and the rest of Alotau Province should also monitor the storm carefully as it continues to moves west tomorrow.

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING NUMBER ELEVEN

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING NUMBER ELEVEN ISSUED BY THE SOLOMON ISLANDS METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE AT 5:00 PM THIS AFTERNOON 14TH MARCH 2010.

A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING IS NOW CURRENT FOR RENNELL/BELLONA, MAKIRA, GUADALCANAL, CENTRAL, WESTERN AND MALAITA PROVINCES WHILST A TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH ADVICE IS IN FORCE FOR ISABEL AND CHOISEUL PROVINCES INCLUDING SHORTLAND ISLANDS.

AT 2:00 PM THIS AFTERNOON, SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE ULUI (CATEGORY FIVE) WITH A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 930 HECTOPASCALS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.8 DEGREES SOUTH AND LONGITUDE 161.4 DEGREES EAST, THIS IS APPROXIMATELY 60 NAUTICAL MILES SOUTHEAST OF RENNELL ISLAND. SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE ULUI IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 07 KNOTS.

EXPECT MEAN MAXIMUM WINDS TO 115 KNOTS, WITH MAXIMUM GUSTS TO 155 KNOTS IN AREAS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE.

GALE FORCE WINDS (34 TO 47 KNOTS) WILL PERSIST OVER SOUTHERN MAKIRA PROVINCE AND EXPECT GALE FORCE WINDS (34 TO 47 KNOTS) OVER THE SOUTHERN GUADALCANAL AND THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF MALAITA WITHIN THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS AS THE CYCLONE MOVES SLIGHTLY NORTH ALONG ITS CURRENT MOVEMENT.

STORM FORCE WINDS (48 TO 63 KNOTS) IS NOW INFORCE FOR RENNELL/BELLONA PROVINCE AND EXPECT HURRICANE FORCE WINDS (64KNOTS AND ABOVE) IN THE NEXT 6 TO 10 HOURS.

EXPECT WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS INCREASING TO 33 KNOTS AT TIMES OVER TEMOTU, CENTRAL, ISABEL, CHOISEUL AND WESTERN PROVINCES INCLUDING SHORTLAND ISLANDS.

THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR COASTAL INUNDATION (COASTAL FLOODING) OVER LOW COASTAL AREAS OVER RENNELL/BELLONA, MAKIRA, MALAITA AND TEMOTU PROVINCES INCLUDING SOUTHERN GUADALCANAL, WESTERN AND RUSSELLS ISLANDS.

SEAS WILL BE VERY ROUGH WITH HIGH SWELLS.

HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS AT TIMES AND SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS IS ALSO EXPECTED OVER MOST OF THE PROVINCES WITH POSSIBLE FLOODING.

THE PEOPLE OF TEMOTU, RENNELL/BELLONA, MAKIRA, MALAITA, GUADALCANAL, ISABEL, CHOISEUL AND WESTERN PROVINCES INCLUDING SHORTLAND ISLANDS SHOULD CONSIDER ACTION THEY WILL NEED TO TAKE AS THE THREAT INCREASES AND TO LISTEN TO THE SIBC OR FM RADIOS FOR FURTHER ADVICES.

FOR FURTHER INFORMATION AND ADVICE, CALL - 933

NEXT UPDATE WILL BE ISSUED AT ANY TIME, WHEN NEW INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE.

DATE: 14TH MARCH 2010

APCEDI will continue to monitor the progress of this system.

Please go to http://apcedi.blogspot.com// for the complete interactive alert on Cyclone Ului.
________________________________________
Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator

To donate to AFAP's Disaster Preparedness, Relief and Rehabilitation Programs in Asia and the Pacific, go to http://www.afap.org and click on the "Donate On-Line" icon in the top right-hand corner.

To sign up for AFAP's free APCEDI email service, please go to http://www.afap.org/apcedi/ and register your email address.