SUPER-CYCLONE HETA HEADER January 1-9, 2004

Super-Cyclone Heta hit several Pacific Island States from January 1-9, 2004. It completely devastated the small island state of Niue. The following are the 12 APCEDI Reports issued by AFAP/FSPI during the course of the storm. Click here to see the appeal launched by AFAP.

Niue- The remains of its main hospital. (Photo courtesy of AusAID).

APCEDI Alert 07P, Cyclone Heta #11, 2004

Dear Colleagues

Alert #11 / 07 January 2004, Sydney 14:00 EDT


Cyclone Heta has passed into the Southern Ocean and will not pose any more threat to land expect for large swells continuing for seas around Niue, the Cooks and Southern Tonga.

Situation in Niue
Communications have been restored with the New Zealand High Commission in Niue. A state of Emergency has been officially declared. New Zealand’s High Commissioner, Ms Sandra Lee Vercoe have reported widespread severe to locally catastrophic damage across the island as predicted in previous APCEDI reports. With the eyewall of the Category 4 Super-Cyclone having gone straight over the island, this was inevitable and now has been confirmed. Brad Tattersfield from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs has relayed the following message from the High Commissioner via Radio New Zealand.

“The main town of Alofi has been flattened she says there has been at least one death and several injuries caused by the cyclone. Many buildings have been damaged including the hospital, a fuel dump and a satellite dish used as telephone communication. Power and phone links are down, many roads are closed and crops are badly damaged so it’s a pretty grim scene at the moment.”

New Zealand is now preparing an immediate relief shipment which will leave later today pending confirmation of ability to land in Niue.

Situation in Tonga
Radio New Zealand reports that the Acting Prime Minister Clive Edwards will go to Tafahi and Niuatoputapu to personally assess the situation with a team of Government officials later today. As also predicted in the APCEDI reports, further analysis of the situation in both Tafahi and Niuatoputapu paints a more grave picture of the situation than initially thought. The houses described in yesterday’s APCEDI report as destroyed were actually permanent brick, mortar and wood structures. Damage and destruction of traditional houses in now confirmed at near 100% on Tafahi and above 75% on Niuatoputapu. Near 100% crop damage is also confirmed for both islands. Even in Niuafo’ou far to the west is reporting 50% crop destruction. However thankfully it is confirmed that there was no loss of life or serious injuries.

Situation in Samoa
A Government assessment team in now in Savai’i to do a detailed assessment of the considerable damage to this large island. Many villages have been out of contact since the storm hit over 2 days ago. Damage reports continue to come out of Upolu and from around the capital. While water has been restored to many areas of Apia, electricity is still out in part of the capital and much of the rural area.

AFAP/FSPI Response
Ms Dawn Pale’soo, AFAP/FSPI Disaster Program Coordinator will be returning to her native Samoa next week once the initial assessments are completed. She will work with the NDMO, the FSP partner and the relevant ministries to determine what medium-longer term relief is needed and what longer-term rehabilitation and development needs will be required. Once this is determined AFAP and FSPI will work with AusAID and other donors to see what response would be in order for AFAP and the FSPI Network. Ms Pale’soo will also be working with our Tonga Trust Office and the Tongan NDMO to make similar determinations for Tafahi and Niuatoputapu. FSPI has no representation in Niue. As Niue is a New Zealand dependency, NZAID would likely be the main source of recovery in this case, although FSPI will work with the Niue and New Zealand officials to determine longer-term rehabilitation and development needs with which the FSPI Network could assist.


More detailed information about the storm can be found on

https://metoc.npmoc.navy.mil//jtwc.html
http://www.met.gov.fj/advisories.html
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html
http://www.rnzi.com/pages/news.php?op=read&id=8041


Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator

APCEDI Alert 07P, Super Cyclone Heta #10, 2004

Dear Colleagues

Alert #10 / 06 January 2004, Sydney 19:00 EDT

Situation in Niue

The eyewall of Category 4 Cyclone Heta has passed directly over Niue in the last 2 hours. See the attached JTWC Satellite Image showing the centre of the eye just to the south of the island just after it passed over. Communications with Niue have been cut and power went down a few hours ago. However the forward speed of the storm is now over 30 km/h, so the storm will move out of the area fairly rapidly. Damage to crops, power lines, and dwellings is likely to be severe. In 5-10 hours, the bulk of the storm will have passed to the southeast just below the Cook Islands. It is planned that the New Zealand Government will send an assessment team to Niue first thing tomorrow. The storm will cause large sea swell in the Cooks, but will pass far enough to the south to limit any damage.

More detailed information about the storm can be found on

https://metoc.npmoc.navy.mil//jtwc.html
http://www.met.gov.fj/advisories.html
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html
http://www.rnzi.com/pages/news.php?op=read&id=8041


Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator

APCEDI Alert 07P, Cyclone Heta #9, 2004

Dear Colleagues

Alert #9 / 06 January 2004, Sydney 13:00 EDT

The Niua Group, Tonga Preliminary Assessment

Ms Dawn Pale’soo, AFAP/FSPI’s Disaster Program Coordinator has just been in touch with Maliu Takai the NDMO Director in Tonga.

Communications have now been restored with both Tafahi and Niuatoputapu as the satellite dish which was dismantled last night has been able to be reconstructed and a preliminary report has been delivered. Damage is widespread but has in fact been less than expected, but it is severe in the agricultural sector with most crops destroyed. An Assessment team with leave tomorrow and include NDMO, Works, Red Cross and MAFF.

No injuries or loss of life has been reported but some structural damage as follows:

Niuatoputapu: 11 residential houses affected, of which 10 houses had their roofs ripped off, main sector affected was agricultural sector especially affected were the fruit bearing trees.

Tafahi: 1 building destroyed and again agricultural sector worst affected.

Niuafo’ou: Minimal infrastructure damage, some crop damage, power restored.

Given the proximity of the Category 5 storm, this is a good result, and this is obviously a very useful system for communications which should be considered for remote islands in other parts of the Pacific.

More detailed information about the storm can be found on

https://metoc.npmoc.navy.mil//jtwc.html
http://www.met.gov.fj/advisories.html
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html
http://www.rnzi.com/pages/news.php?op=read&id=8041


Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator

APCEDI Alert 07P, Cyclone Heta #7, 2004

Dear Colleagues

Alert #7 / 06 January 2004, Sydney 09:00 EDT

Super Cyclone Heta peaked as a Category 5 Super Cyclone, but has now begun to weaken slightly and pick up forward speed as it moves southeastward. It is is still a strong and dangerous Category 4 storm. The eyewall is about 150 kms southeast of Niuatoputapu, 200 kms northeast of the Vava’u Group and 210 kms northwest of Niue.

The following will be a country by country assessment.

Tonga: Satellite images from overnight show that Heta’s eyewall passed 50 kms east of islands of Tafahi and Niuatoputapu. During this time it was a Category 5 Super Cyclone. Both islands were in the centre core of the storm for about 8 hours. Although they would not have sustained the very highest eyewall winds from the storm, locally to possibly widespread severe wind, tidal surge and rain damage can be expected on both islands, and they should both be assessed immediately. Power and communications have been lost with the islands, and help may be needed to restore this. The western-most island in the Niua’s, Niuafo’ou lies considerably further west and has escaped the brunt of the storm, although some damage is being reported as communications there remain intact. Further south, the Vava’u Group continues to be pounded by heavy rain, gales and high surf. However damage to these islands will not be as serious due to the distance from the core of the storm. To the south, the rest of Tonga including the Ha’apai Group and Tongtapu are getting some gales and squalls, but damage should not be serious.

Niue: It now seems very probable that Niue will receive a direct hit possibly even by the eyewall at a Category 4 level over the next 8 hours. This will result in severe to locally catastrophic damage throughout the island. As this report is being written, the inner core of the storm is just approaching Niue. Cyclone Warnings have been raised and preparations are now largely complete, so it will be a matter of riding out the storm. The one positive note is that the island has had 3 days to prepare, and thus should be very ready. Although damage will likely be widespread, the islanders will be in the safety of permanent cyclone-proof buildings.

Wallis and Futuna: No further reports have been received since the last report.

Samoa (including America Samoa): Preliminary reports are now being complied by NDMO and have already be sent to donors. Damage reported so far on Savai’i and Upolu is widespread, but is more in the moderate range although many areas of Savai’i have not been heard from yet. No loss of life has been reported.

More detailed information about the storm can be found on

https://metoc.npmoc.navy.mil//jtwc.html
http://www.met.gov.fj/advisories.html
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html


Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator

APCEDI Alert 07P, Cyclone Heta #8, 2004

Dear Colleagues

Alert #8 / 06 January 2004, Sydney 12:00 EDT

The eyewall of Super Cyclone Heta is continuing to make a beeline for Niue as it pulls away from Tonga. Lots of reports are now coming in from American Samoa and to a lesser extent from Samoa.

The following will be a country by country assessment.

American Samoa: A state of emergency has been declared by Acting Governor Aitofele Sunia. No deaths and one serious injury has been reported (electrocution from downed powerline). Airport Terminal has lost much of its roof. Widespread moderate to locally severe damage to village dwellings, powerlines, roads and crops especially from along low-lying areas along the north coast. Power is out in most rural areas and in some town areas.

Samoa: Samoa Broadcasting Corporation which has stayed on the air is reported extensive moderate to locally severe damage to village dwellings, powerlines, roads and crops in the Apia area and along the north coast. Power is out in most rural areas and in many areas of the capital. No reports of deaths or injuries have been received and an unsubstantiated report about a death from drowning in the storm surge has been officially discounted. Reports from Savai’i continue to be hampered by lack of communication as phone services are still down and all electrical power has been cut throughout.

Some good news to report is that the seawalls which have been built on both Savai’i and Upolu in the last decade seem to be having a very positive effect and are significantly helping to limit damage. Local people have also noted the frequency and quality of warnings and alerts over the radio (nearly every half hour) have been very useful in preparing for and riding out the storm. Once this situation is over, it would be great to do a lesson’s learned analysis on the how the improved cyclone preparation measures in Samoa over the last decade have withstood this test of Super Cyclone Heta.

Tonga: The NDMO is reporting to Radio New Zealand that Tonga has not suffered much damage. While this may be an accurate assessment for much of the populated south of the country, NDMO states that it does not have any reports from Tafahi and Niuatoputapu, which received a direct hit from the core area of the cyclone and just missed the eyewall. Therefore an urgent effort needs to be made to assess the situation quickly on these two northern outliers by one means or another as serious damage would be expected giving the proximity of the Category 5 storm to the islands overnight.

Niue: Sustained winds of 60 km/ hour with gusts up to 80 km/h are being reported as the eyewall continues to approach the island. However, reports have indicated that all preparations for the storm were complete as of early this morning.

Wallis and Futuna: No further reports have been received since the last report.


More detailed information about the storm can be found on

https://metoc.npmoc.navy.mil//jtwc.html
http://www.met.gov.fj/advisories.html
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html
http://www.rnzi.com/pages/news.php?op=read&id=8041


Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator

APCEDI Alert 07P, Cyclone Heta #6, 2004

Dear Colleagues

Alert #6 / 05 January 2004, Sydney 19:00 EDT

Cyclone Heta continues as a dangerous Category 4 storm, and there is now the official prediction that it will peak as a Category 5 Super Cyclone within 50-100km of the Tongan Island of Niuatoputapu. So the situation in growing increasingly grave over the next 24 hours for Samoa, Tonga and Niue. Moderate to locally severe damage is being reported from Wallis, Savai’i and Upolu as the first reports start to come in. The following will be a country by country assessment.

Tokelau: Outer rain and wind bands still affecting the 3 island groups, and the ocean continues very rough. Damage is minimal and little further damage is expected as the storm is now quite distant and moving away.

Wallis and Futuna: Power is out throughout most of the Wallis Group although phones are reported to be working in the main areas of Uvea. Widespread moderate damage to crops, coastal flooding of low lying areas and damage to boats and marina on Uvea. No reports of loss of life or injuries. The storm is moving away but Wallis can still expect another 6-12 hours of damaging gales, heavy gain and very rough seas. Futuna and Alofi continue in the outer bands of the storm but damage is minimal and little further damage is expected as the storm is moving away.

Samoa (including America Samoa): The first reports are coming from the NDMO through Ms Dawn Paleso'o, the AFAP/FSPI Disaster Manager. She is reporting significant flooding of low-lying coastal zones in the Apia area as there is a strong tidal surge on the northern coasts of Savai’i and Upolu from the southern-moving storm and high tide has just past this afternoon. As the storm rounds to the south, this tidal surge will also build on west-facing coastal areas. The storm surge has crested above the seawall at Apia and spread debris across most coastal roads. Landslides due to rain and coastal flood surge have already blocked the Eastern Coast Road. She is reporting that communications with Savai’i are difficult. Recent reports have reported most of the power out in Savai’i as well as some phone lines. Given the moderate to serious damage in Upolu from the tidal surge, it can only be estimated to be worse on the northern coast of Savai’i. Tutuila is American Samoa is also reporting some tidal surge damage. The storm is currently 130 kms southwest of Savai’i, but much of the western part of the island has disappeared on the satellite under the outer bands of the inner portion of the cyclone. Given the increasing size of Heta and its continued slow movement, moderate to locally severe damage from wind, storm surge and flash flooding can be expected throughout northern and western areas of the island. Code Red Alerts which are the highest level remain posted on both islands. Damaging winds, storm surges and rains will likely continue for the next 24 hours. No injuries or loss of life has been reported.

Tonga: Initially it looked like Tonga may escape without much damage, but with the increase in size and subtle shifts in direction, the Niua Group will very likely receive a direct hit tonight particularly the islands of Tafahi and Niuatoputapu. With over 2000 people mostly living on Niuatoputapu, these two islands now lie in the direct path of what may eventuate as a Category 5 Super-Cyclone. These two islands will likely bear the full force of the storm and could receive severe to locally catastrophic damage. A great deal will depend on the strength and forward speed of the storm. Warnings have already been up for 48 hours, and residents will have made many preparations. However, the cyclone has grown very strong, very quickly, and residents have no faced such a major threat for over a decade. The western-most island in the Niua’s, Niuafo’ou lies considerably further west and thus should escape the full brunt of the storm, but moderate to locally severe damage could still occur here. Farther to the south, the Vava’u Group should get gales and squalls, but damage on the current track should be minimal to locally moderate.

Niue: On its current predicted course, Niue is still in position to receive a direct hit from Heta possibly at Category 4-5 by tomorrow night, and this could result in severe to locally catastrophic damage throughout the island. Cyclone Warnings have been raised and preparations are now underway. New Zealand officials are monitoring the storm closely and will take measures in the next few days should the threat increase to Niue.

More detailed information about the storm can be found on

https://metoc.npmoc.navy.mil//jtwc.html
http://www.met.gov.fj/advisories.html
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html


Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator

APCEDI Alert 07P, Cyclone Heta #5, 2004

Dear Colleagues

Alert #5 / 05 January 2004, Sydney 09:00 EDT

Cyclone Heta rapidly gained strength overnight and is now a dangerous Category 4 storm. It has however picked up some forward speed and is now moving south-southeast at 9 knots. The centre now lies equidistant between Wallis Island and Savai’i, Samoa’s western-most island. This is actually the best possible scenario for both islands as it means that neither one will receive the full brunt of the storm. However, now that the overall strength has increased, both Wallis and Savai’i will likely get significant gales and rain which could cause moderate to locally significant damage. Moderate to locallly severe damage particularly to crops, insecure dwellings and power supplies is possible for Wallis and Savai’i and Upolu. For Futuna and the islands of American Samoa, some serious squalls and gales should be expected but damage should be minimal to locally moderate. Again it should be noted that the forward speed continues to be a critical factor as the storm is still slow moving, and this could cause significant flash flooding on Savai’i and Upolu which have rugged mountainous relief as well as to Tutila in American Samoa. As the storm passes to the west, the north facing slopes and valleys would be most at risk although flash floods could occur anywhere if the storm has a slow forward motion. Then as the storm passes to the southwest, the western slopes and valleys will be hard hit. However, forward motion is expected to increase today. All people in Samoa should keep on alert and listen to official announcements which are already urging people to take precautionary measures. AFAP’s Samoa Office, OLSSI, will monitor the situation and bring regular reports if communications permit.

All warnings have now been discontinued for Tokelau although they are still experiencing intermittent squalls and heavy rains.

As Heta heads on a predicted southeast course tonight, the storm should pass equidistant between Savai’i and the northern Tongan outliers of Tafahi and Niuatoputapu. Again if this equidistance is achieved, neither area will bear the full brunt of the Category 4 winds which is the best possible scenario for both groups. However the southeast recurvature close to Savai’i means that this island and Upolu to a lesser extent will get torrential rains which could continue to exascerbate flash flooding.

On its current predicted course, Niue is still in position to receive a direct hit from the storm possibly at Category 3-4, and the real serious damage from this storm may be at this time as a direct hit at Category 3-4 will result in serious damage throughout the island. Cyclone Warnings have been raised and preparations are now underway. New Zealand officials are monitoring the storm closely and will take measures in the next few days should the threat increase to Niue.

More detailed information about the storm can be found on

https://metoc.npmoc.navy.mil//jtwc.html
http://www.met.gov.fj/advisories.html
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html


Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator

APCEDI Alert 07P, Cyclone Heta #4, 2004

Dear Colleagues

Alert #4 / 04 January 2004, Sydney 18:00 EDT

Cyclone Heta has been slowly moving to the southwest which moves it farther away from Samoa, but now closer to the French Territory of Wallis and Futuna.

All warnings have now been discontinued for Tokelau although they are still experiencing intermittent squalls and heavy rains. Heta’s centre is now 350 km southwest of Nukunonu.

Given the increasing western component of its track, Heta tonight and tomorrow is set to start passing between Wallis Island and Savai’i, Samoa’s western-most island probably as a Category 2 storm. It is currently a strong Category 1 storm. Cyclone warnings have recently gone up for Wallis Island with the cyclone centred 230 kms to the northeast. Cyclone warnings continue for Samoa with Heta approximately 230 kms northwest and expected to be as close as 100 km west of the island by tomorrow afternoon. Again the level of damage to both Wallis and Samoa’s main islands will be closely related to the track and intensity. If the storm passes equidistantly between Wallis and Savai’i, as a Category 2 storm, then damage should be small to moderate and mostly to crops, power supply and insecure structures. However, if the storm veers more closely to one group, the damage could be expected to be more on the moderate side.

Again it should be noted that the forward speed will also be a critical factor as a slow moving storm could cause significant flash flooding on Savai’i and Upolu which have rugged mountainous relief as well as to Tutila in American Samoa. As the storm passes to the west, the north facing slopes and valleys would be most at risk although flash floods could occur anywhere if the storm has a slow forward motion. All people in Samoa should keep on alert and listen to official announcements which are already urging people to take precautionary measures. AFAP’s Samoa Office, OLSSI, will monitor the situation and bring regular reports if communications permit.

Tonga continues to be next in line. On its current predicted course, the main southern groups of Tonga would be largely spared, but the northern outliers of Niuafo’ou, Tafahi and Niuatoputapu could receive a direct hit with the storm at Category 2-3. Niuatoputapu is the most vulnerable given its easterly position. This could cause moderate to significant damage to these sparsely inhabited islands especially to crops and insecure structures. A shift in course could westward could also affect the Vava’u Group. Cyclone watches have been issued for all these groups. AFAP’s Tonga Office, Tonga Trust, will likewise monitor the situation.

Lastly on its current predicted course, Niue is still in position to receive a direct hit with the storm at Category 2. New Zealand officials are monitoring the storm closely and will take measures in the next few days should the threat increase to Niue.

More detailed information about the storm can be found on

https://metoc.npmoc.navy.mil//jtwc.html
http://www.met.gov.fj/advisories.html
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html


Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator

APCEDI Alert 07P, Cyclone Heta #3, 2004

Dear Colleagues

Alert #3 / Sydney 7:00 EDT

Cyclone Heta has now commenced its slow southerly track. This will spare Tokelau of much further problems as gales and squalls ease tonight as the storm moves away. No significant damage has been reported from Tokelau, and it is unlikely there would have been much.

Samoa is the next country to come into focus. On its current track, Heta is set to pass 150-200 kms to the west of the westernmost main island of Savai’i as a Category 2-3 storm starting Sunday afternoon. Therefore the exact track of the storm over the next 12-48 hours is critical for Samoa’s two main islands of Savai’i and Upolu. The storm is currently moving slowly south although it is expected to increase forward speed. The forward speed will also be a critical factor as a slow moving storm could cause significant flash flooding on Savai’i and Upolu which have rugged mountainous relief. If the storm passes to the west, the north facing slopes and valleys would be most at risk although flash floods could occur anywhere if the storm has a slow forward motion. All people in Samoa should keep on alert and listen to official announcements which are already urging people to take precautionary measures. AFAP’s Samoa Office, OLSSI, will monitor the situation and bring regular reports if communications permit.

Tonga is next in line. On its current predicted course, the main groups of Tonga would be largely spared, but the northern outliers of Niuafo’ou, Tafahi and Niuatoputapu could receive a direct hit with the storm at Category 3. This could cause significant damage to these sparsely inhabited islands especially to crops and insecure structures. A shift in course could westward could effect the Vava’u Group. AFAP’s Tonga Office, Tonga Trust, will likewise monitor the situation.

Lastly on its current predicted course, Niue could receive a direct hit with the storm at Category 2. New Zealand officials are monitoring the storm closely and will take measures in the next few days should the threat increase to Niue.

More detailed information about the storm can be found on

https://metoc.npmoc.navy.mil//jtwc.html
http://www.met.gov.fj/advisories.html
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html


Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator

APCEDI Alert 07P, Cyclone Heta #2, 2004

Dear Colleagues

Alert #2

Cyclonic system 07P has now been named Cyclone Heta. It is moving very slowly east-northeast and is now located 200 km northwest of Nukunonu in Tokelau. It has slowly intensified to a “barely Level 1” cyclone and is likely to continue to slowly strengthen. Low level gales and squalls are spreading over Tokelau’s 3 island groups (Atafu, Nukunonu and Fakaofo) and are likely to continue into Saturday. The current track of the storm which still turns it sharply south brings it west of Samoa by Sunday afternoon as a Level 1-2 cyclone and then into Tongan territory. Cyclone Heta is still small but capable of light to locally moderate damage especially to crops and weak structures. Should the storm keep on its current course, torrential rains would continue over Tokelau. These would be capable of causing localised flooding. Flash flooding could be more of a problem on the big islands of Savai’i and Upolu in Samoa as they have much higher mountainous relief. Careful attention should continue to be paid to the system over the weekend and into next week, and all warnings should be heeded as rapid intensification and rapid shifts from the predicted course are possibilities.

More detailed information about the storm can be found on

https://metoc.npmoc.navy.mil//jtwc.html
http://www.met.gov.fj/advisories.html


Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator

APCEDI Alert 07P Cyclone Heta #1, 2004

Dear Colleagues

Alert #1

A small cyclonic system has formed about 300 nautical miles northwest of Apia or 100 nautical miles southwest of Tokelau. It is moving towards the north-northeast but is predicted to curve toward the south in the next few days. Countries or Island Dependencies which could be affected include Samoa, American Samoa, Tokelau, Tonga and Niue. The storm is small in intensity although slow strengthening is predicted. At this point damage to any of these areas would likely be minimal to locally moderate given the small size of the storm, confined to crops and insecure dwellings. However, careful attention should be paid to the system over the weekend and into next week, and all warnings should be heeded as rapid intensification and rapid shifts from the predicted course are possibilities.

More detailed information about the storm can be found on

https://metoc.npmoc.navy.mil//jtwc.html
http://www.met.gov.fj/advisories.html


Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator