CYCLONE IVY HEADER February 23-March 4, 2004

Cyclone Ivy tracked across the Pacific from 23 February-4 March hitting Eastern Solomon Islands, Vanuatu and New Caledonia. The following are the 19 APCEDI Reports issued by AFAP/FSPI during the course of the storm.

APCEDI Alert 13P, Cyclone Ivy #19, 2004

Dear Colleagues

Alert 19, Cyclone Ivy 13P / 27 February 2004, Sydney 1800 EDT

AFAP, FSPI and FSP VANUATU RESPONSE
With Cyclone Ivy finally moving out of Vanuatu, AFAP has raised an appeal at www.afap.org. Toll free number 1-800-007-308. Even if isolated pockets of severe damage are limited, it is already known that many communities houses, schools and buildings have been damaged on some islands, and communities will need help to rebuild these. Communities will also very likely need help with sourcing and replanting crops given the widespread nature of crop damage in many areas. FSP Vanuatu and AFAP will work closely with the NDMO and AusAID to identify key geographic and sectoral areas of need.

The FSP Vanuatu Office in Vila experienced only minor damage from rain leaking in, so the office is completely functional. FSP Vanuatu has field offices, staff, contractors and contacts throughout the country who can assist with initial assessment and relief efforts as well as any longer term rehabilitation. FSPI and AFAP staff from other Pacific countries could be brought in if needed. FSP Vanuatu has worked closely with the NDMO for many years.

Morgan Armstrong, FSP Vanuatu Advisor, will be leading the FSP Vanuatu assessment and relief effort. He can be contacted in Vila at 0011-678-22915 (office) and 0011-678-24492 (home) and email marmstrong@fsp.org.vu.


APCEDI will continue monitoring the event. More detailed information about the storm can be found on

https://metoc.npmoc.navy.mil//jtwc.html
http://www.met.gov.fj/advisories.html
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html
http://www.afap.org
http://www.afap.org/apcedi


Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator

APCEDI Alert 13P, Cyclone Ivy #18, 2004

Dear Colleagues

Alert 18, Cyclone Ivy 13P / 27 February 2004, Sydney 1700 EDT

Cyclone Ivy is moving out of Vanuatu Territory and into New Caledonian Territory this evening. Again it seems to have strengthened from recent photos and data into a Category 3 storm. APCEDI has received much information today from across Vanuatu, and been trying to compile all of it. Kay aspects of the information include:

1. RADIO VANUATU—Radio Vanuatu has been off the air since yesterday night (nearly 24 hours), and communities across the islands are desperate to get information back up so they no what’s happening and what to do. Repairing Radio Vanuatu as soon as possible so it can broadcast is of utmost importance and should be focused on by donors.

2. OVERALL DAMAGE—Damage throughout Vanuatu can be best classified as Widespread Moderate which indicates lots of trees down, gardens damaged, insecure structures fallen down, landslides, widespread electricity and phone outages. However, isolated pockets of severe damage are being increasingly reported. Severe Damage refers to widespread destruction of houses, community buildings and crops. Unconfirmed reports speak of Ambrym, South Pentecost and Ambae as areas of particular damage to houses, schools and churches, and contact is still out with the many areas including in the Southern Islands. These pockets of severe damage need to be identified and dealt with quickly. Australia, NZ and France aid agencies are working closely with the Vanuatu Government in this effort.

3. DEATH CONFIRMED ON MALAKULA
One woman has been confirmed dead by NDMO from a landslide near Lamap. All other people have been accounted for in this landslide incident.

4. FISHING BOATS LEAKING OIL AT VILA WHARF
According to NDMO 2 Taiwanese fishing boats have been sunk and are leaking oil and many other small boats sunk in and around the wharf. These leaks should be assessed and contained as soon as possible if significant.

Ivy, appears to again strengthened to a Category 3 storm as it leaves Vanuatu. A nicely formed large eye is evident between Anatom and Mare Island, New Caledonia. Anatom is just moving out of the eastern part of the eyewall although both it and Tanna remain under deep convection. Erromango is still experiencing intermittent gales and torrential rains. The rest of country has intermittent light to moderate shower activity with isolated strong winds and breezy conditions.

Most predictive models continue to forecast Ivy tracking southeasterly across the isolated Caledonian outliers of Walpole, Matthew and Hunter Islands. It will then continue southeast with a possible direct hit on the North Island of New Zealand. As such, the APCEDI warnings will continue for Southern Vanuatu from the Erromango south. Since APCEDI does not work in New Caledonia, we will not be issuing alerts but people in Loyalties and eastern outliers should take preparations and monitor the storm tonight and tomorrow.

The current situation is summarised as follows:

Damaging Category 2-3 Eyewall-strength Winds and Torrential Rains
Vanuatu
Anatom

Intermittent Damaging Gales and and Torrential Rains (moving away)
Vanuatu
Erromango
Tanna
New Caledonia
Loyalty Islands (particularly Mare)

Damaging Category 2-3 Eyewall-strength Winds and Torrential Rains in next 6-12 hours
New Caledonia
Hunter, Matthew and Walpole Islands

Intermittent Squalls and Heavy Rain associated with Feeder Bands ( moving away)
Vanuatu
Efate
Shepherds Group
Malakula
Epi

Given the Category 2-3 nature of the storm, damage overall at this time should be widespread moderate to locally severe for Tanna and Anatom. The danger from flash-flooding for the Southern Islands remains extremely high as the storm creeps so slowly away from Vanuatu. As Ivy continues this slow movement, very heavy widespread rainfall could result in flash-flooding of mountain and hill areas as well as known flood prone areas. Varying degrees of crop damage are also likely. Seas will be very rough to phenomenal resulting in tidal flooding of low-lying areas.

Efate and the capital, Port Vila
The core area of deepest convection has recently moved south of Efate although they will continue with intermittent squalls with torrential rains and winds for a few more hours. NDMO is reporting widespread moderate to localised severe damage in Vila as follows:
Radio Vanuatu off the air for 24 hours
trees down blocking roads (many now removed but many remaining in outer areas of capital
power lines and poles down
many small boats/yachts sunk on the wharf and several washed up on beaches
two fishing boat capsized near the main wharf with a resulting oil spill
2000 people in evacuation shelters at the height of the storm (most all returned home now)
power off in parts of Vila (particularly in outer parts) but on in other parts (on in city centre).
phones mostly functioning
flooding of low-lying areas
some small bridges being washed out

With the entire country including the capital impacted by this event, GOV and the people of Vanuatu will need serious assistance to coordinate the assessment and relief efforts.

Larger Northern and Central Vanuatu Islands
NDMO has established communications with some islands and have had the following reports which have not been confirmed:
Maewo- (radio contact)-many unstable and older houses damaged, newer more permanent houses largely withstanding storm.
Pentecost-Many homes damaged in the southern part of the island
Ambae-(radio contact)-many houses damaged.
Ambrym-(telephone contact with west)-school severely damaged, many houses damaged.

Torrential rains and damaging Category 2-3 winds pounded all the Northern and Central Islands for 2 days. Only intermittent showers remain over the Northern Islands. Epi, the Shepherds and Efate are also out of the main core area but intermittent winds and rains will still continue over this area. The slow moving nature of the storm means that rainfalls in the hundreds of millimetres will have been registered throughout the nation. Flooding from intermittent showers is still possible as all rivers and streams are running high.

Larger Southern Vanuatu Islands
Ivy’s centre is passing to the southwest of Anatom as it exits the country. Widespread moderate to locally severe damage can be expected on Erromango, Tanna and Anatom. The slow moving nature of the storm mean that rainfalls in the hundreds of millimetres will have been registered throughout these islands and will be continuing. This could certainly be causing flash flooding of many stream valleys and larger rivers. The situation in hill and mountain areas of Erromango and Tanna is of particular concern.

GOV, NDMO and Donors should now prepare themselves for needing to make widespread assessments across almost all of big islands Vanuatu in the following days. This will be difficult as Vila itself has been hit and suffered at least widespread moderate to locally severe damage. In addition to flash flooding, coastal flooding and wind damage can be expected at least in localised areas near the centre.

Banks Group
The Banks Group is now out of the main storm area. The whole group has had very heavy rains, very rough seas and increasingly severe winds for almost 48 hours. With the centre having slowly moved over Mere Lava, this outer island may be particularly hard hit. With the cyclone pulling away from this Group, assessments should be done of the areas to determine the degree of wind damage and flooding. Crops are likely badly affected in some areas.

Anuta and Tikopia, Solomons
Anuta and Tikopia are now out of the main area of the storm. Light to moderate damage caused by tidal flooding of low-lying areas, crop damage and possibly some damage to unstable structures is expected given the nearly 48 hours of punishment by this storm. However, the overall damage will not be anywhere as bad as with Cyclone Zoe. However, the cumulative effects of 3 major cyclones in 14 months (Zoe, Gina and now Ivy) may well be wearing down the ability of the people and their environment and its resources to sustainably cope. NDMO and Donors should endeavour to make contact with the islands to assess both the immediate effects of Ivy and cumulative effects of the last 3 storms on the overall situation.

Torres Groups, Vanuatu and Santa Cruz Group, Solomons
Seas remain very rough. The Torres Group, Vanikolo and to a lesser extent Utupua have received very heavy rainfall from their proximity to this slow moving storm so some flooding may have occurred. They should be assessed later today. The remainder of the Group has likely only experienced minor coastal flooding, but contact to all the all the smaller outliers should be undertaken to verify this.

New Caledonia
The core convection area has moved over the Group, but with the increasingly southeasterly track, these islands and the main island of Grande Terre will likely be spared a direct hit although light to locally moderate damage is possible in the Loyalties. The eastern outliers of Hunter, Matthew and Walpole Islands will be heavily impacted tonight and into tomorrow

APCEDI will continue monitoring the event. More detailed information about the storm can be found on


https://metoc.npmoc.navy.mil//jtwc.html
http://www.met.gov.fj/advisories.html
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html
http://www.afap.org
http://www.afap.org/apcedi

Thanks to Job Esau, John Henry and Philip of the Vanuatu NDMO for all the information.

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator

APCEDI Alert 13P, Cyclone Ivy #17, 2004

Dear Colleagues

Alert 17, Cyclone Ivy 13P / 27 February 2004, Sydney 0700 EDT

Ivy, following a 3 day pattern, weakened in the evening and then gained strength in the early morning. This morning it is still a strong Category 2 to weak Category 3 storm. The eye has just moved over Tanna and is set to move over Anatom in the next 3-6 hours at which point it will begin to clear from Vanuatu territory. A large core area of deep convection remains from the Shepherd Islands in the north to the Loyalty Islands in the southwest. Heavy rains and hurricane force gales remain over Erromango, Tanna, Anatom and all the Loyalty Islands. Ivy’s forward speed continues slowly at 8 knots to the SSE.

Intermittent squalls and gales continue over the the Northern and Central Islands.

Most predictive models continue to forecast Ivy tracking southeasterly across Anatom and then out of Vanuatu territory in next 10-12 hours. It will then pass east of New Caledonia and now the official track has it heading south with a possible direct hit on the North Island of New Zealand. As such, the APCEDI warnings will continue all of Vanuatu from the Shepherd Islands south.

The current situation is summarised as follows:

Damaging Category 2-3 Eyewall-strength Winds and Torrential Rains
Vanuatu
Tanna
Erromango

Sustained Gales and Heavy Rain approaching damaging Category 2-3 force in the next 4-6 hours
Vanuatu
Anatom

Intermittent Damaging Gales and and Torrential Rains (moving away)
Vanuatu
Shepherds
Efate
New Caledonia
Loyalty Islands

Intermittent Squalls and Heavy Rain associated with Feeder Bands ( moving away)
Vanuatu
Maewo
Pentecost
Ambae
Santo
Malakula
Epi

Given the Category 2-3 nature of the storm, damage overall at this time should be widespread moderate to locally severe for Erromango, Tanna and Anatom. Widespread moderate and locally severe damage continues to the be reported from the capital Port Vila. The danger from flash-flooding remains extremely high as the storm creeps so slowly toward the south. As Ivy continues this slow movement, very heavy widespread rainfall could result in flash-flooding of mountain and hill areas as well as known flood prone areas. This is especially critical for the large Vanuatu islands. Due to the islands’ very high relief and the slow movement of the storm, flash flooding will be a major threat throughout tonight and tomorrow especially if the the storm continues to pass slowly or even stalls. Locally severe to catastrophic damage will also likely occur in and around the eye of the storm. Varying degrees of crop damage are also likely. Seas will be very rough to phenomenal resulting in tidal flooding of low-lying areas.

Efate and the capital, Port Vila
The core area of deepest convection has recently moved south of Efate although they will continue with intermittent squalls with torrential rains and winds for a few more hours. NDMO is reporting widespread moderate to localised severe damage in Vila as follows:
trees down blocking roads
power lines and poles down
large fishing boat capsized near the main wharf with a resulting oil spill
1700 people in evacuation shelters
power off in parts of Vila but on in other parts
phones mostly functioning
flooding of low-lying areas
some small bridges being washed out

With the entire country including the capital impacted by this event, GOV and the people of Vanuatu will need serious assistance to coordinate the assessment and relief efforts.

Larger Northern and Central Vanuatu Islands
NDMO has established communications with some islands and have had the following reports which have not been confirmed:
Maewo- (radio contact)-many unstable and older houses damaged, newer more permanent houses largely withstanding storm.
Ambae-(radio contact)-many houses damaged.
Ambrym-(telephone contact with west)-school severely damaged, many houses damaged.

Torrential rains and damaging Category 2-3 winds pounded all the Northern and Central Islands for 2 days. Only intermittent squalls remain over the Northern Islands. Epi, the Shepherds and Efate are also out of the main core area but intermittent gales and heavy rains will still continue over this area. The slow moving nature of the storm means that rainfalls in the hundreds of millimetres will have been registered throughout the region. Flooding from intermittent showers is still possible as all rivers and streams are running high.

Larger Southern Vanuatu Islands
Ivy’s center is passing Tanna and will likely hit Anatom later this morning. Widespread moderate to severe damage can be expected. The slow moving nature of the storm mean that rainfalls in the hundreds of millimetres will have been registered throughout the region and will be continuing. This will certainly be causing flash flooding of many stream valleys and larger rivers. The situation in hill and mountain areas of Erromango and Tanna is of particular concern.

GOV, NDMO and Donors should now prepare themselves for needing to make widespread assessments across almost all of big islands Vanuatu in the following days. This will be difficult as Vila itself has been hit and suffered at least widespread moderate to locally severe damage. In addition to flash flooding, coastal flooding and wind damage can be expected at least in localised areas near the centre.

Banks Group
The Banks Group is now out of the main storm area. However, outer feeder band activity is possible. The whole group has had very heavy rains, very rough seas and increasingly severe winds for almost 48 hours. With the centre having slowly moved over Mere Lava, this outer island may be particularly hard hit. With the cyclone pulling away from this Group, assessments should be done of the areas to determine the degree of wind damage and flooding. Crops are likely badly affected in some areas.

Anuta and Tikopia, Solomons
Anuta and Tikopia are now out of the main area of the storm but are still subject to outer feeder bands. Light to moderate damage caused by tidal flooding of low-lying areas, crop damage and possibly some damage to unstable structures is expected given the nearly 48 hours of punishment by this storm. However, the overall damage will not be anywhere as bad as with Cyclone Zoe. However, the cumulative effects of 3 major cyclones in 14 months (Zoe, Gina and now Ivy) may well be wearing down the ability of the people and their environment and its resources to sustainably cope. NDMO and Donors should endeavour to make contact with the islands to assess both the immediate effects of Ivy and cumulative effects of the last 3 storms on the overall situation.

Torres Groups, Vanuatu and Santa Cruz Group, Solomons
Outer feeder bands with heavy rains and squalls are still possible over Vanikolo. Seas remain very rough. The Torres Group, Vanikolo and to a lesser extent Utupua have received very heavy rainfall from their proximity to this slow moving storm so some flooding may have occurred. They should be assessed later today. The remainder of the Group has likely only experienced minor coastal flooding, but contact to all the all the smaller outliers should be undertaken to verify this.

Loyalty Islands, New Caledonia
The core convection area has moved over the Group, but with the increasingly southeasterly track, these islands and the main island of Grande Terre will likely be spared a direct hit although light to locally moderate damage is possible in the Loyalties.

APCEDI will continue monitoring the event. More detailed information about the storm can be found on


https://metoc.npmoc.navy.mil//jtwc.html
http://www.met.gov.fj/advisories.html
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html
http://www.afap.org
http://www.afap.org/apcedi

Thanks to Job Esau, John Henry and Philip of the Vanuatu NDMO for all the information.


Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator

APCEDI Alert 13P, Cyclone Ivy #16, 2004

Dear Colleagues

Alert 16, Cyclone Ivy 13P / 26 February 2004, Sydney 2300 EDT

The interaction of the Ivy’s eye with Efate seems to have weakened the storm down to a borderline Category 2-3. After passing Efate the eye became indistinct and infilled. Now interaction with Erromango may further weaken the storm. A mass of deep convection has formed to the west of the eye. Torrential rains and Category 2-3 winds continue over Efate, Erromango and Tanna. Ivy’s forward speed continues slow at 8 knots to the south.

Intermittent heavy rains continue over the southern Southern Malakula, Ambrym, Epi the Shepherds and Anatom. Intermittent showers are over Northern Malakula, Maewo, Pentecost and Ambae. Due to the slow forward speed of Ivy, this torrential rainfall situation will continue tonight through Central and Southern Vanuatu.

Most predictive models continue to forecast Ivy tracking southerly across the length of Vanuatu throughout the next 12 hours and then on to the east of New Caledonia. The official track out of the JTWC has Ivy moving over the Southern Islands tonight and then on to the Loyalty Islands and New Caledonia tomorrow as a Category 2 west of Tanna for 12 hours and then declining thereafter. As such, the APCEDI warnings will continue all of Vanuatu from Santo south. The APCEDI alerts for the Santa Cruz Group, the Torres Group and the Banks Group have now been lifted although isolated short-lived squalls will still occur. If the eye feature maintains it current course, it will continue to pass over or just west of Tanna in 2-4 hours.

The current situation is summarised as follows:

Damaging Category 2-3 Eyewall-strength Winds and Torrential Rains
Vanuatu
Tanna
Erromango

Damaging Gales and/ or Category 1-2 Winds and Torrential Rains (moving away)
Vanuatu
Southern Malakula
Paama
Ulveah
Ambrym
Epi
Shepherds
Efate

Sustained Gales and Heavy Rain approaching damaging Category 2-3 force in the next 4-10 hours
Vanuatu
Anatom
New Caledonia
Loyalty Islands

Intermittent Gales and Heavy Rain associated with Feeder Bands ( moving away)
Vanuatu
Maewo
Pentecost
Ambae
Santo
Northern and Central Malakula

Given the Category 2-3 nature of the storm, damage overall at this time should be widespread moderate to locally severe from Efate on south. Widespread moderate and locally severe damage continues to the be reported from the capital Port Vila. The danger from flash-flooding remains extremely high as the storm creeps so slowly toward the south. As Ivy continues this slow movement, very heavy widespread rainfall could result in flash-flooding of mountain and hill areas as well as known flood prone areas. This is especially critical for the large Vanuatu islands. Due to the islands’ very high relief and the slow movement of the storm, flash flooding will be a major threat throughout tonight and tomorrow especially if the the storm continues to pass slowly or even stalls. Locally severe to catastrophic damage will also likely occur in and around the eye of the storm. Varying degrees of crop damage are also likely. Seas will be very rough to phenomenal resulting in tidal flooding of low-lying areas.

Efate and the capital, Port Vila
Efate is still in an area of deep convection with intermittent torrential rains and winds, but the eye has now moved south. NDMO is reporting widespread moderate to localised severe damage in Vila as follows:
trees down blocking roads
power lines and poles down
large fishing boat capsized near the main wharf with a resulting oil spill
1700 people in evacuation shelters
power off in parts of Vila but on in other parts
phones mostly functioning
flooding of low-lying areas
some small bridges being washed out

With the entire country including the capital impacted by this event, GOV and the people of Vanuatu will need serious assistance to coordinate the assessment and relief efforts.

Larger Northern and Central Vanuatu Islands
NDMO has established communications with some islands and have had the following reports which have not been confirmed:
Maewo- (radio contact)-many unstable and older houses damaged, newer more permanent houses largely withstanding storm.
Ambae-(radio contact)-many houses damaged.
Ambrym-(telephone contact with west)-school severely damaged, many houses damaged.

The centre of Ivy is now near Erromango. Torrential rains and damaging Category 2-3 winds have pounded Maewo, Pentecost, Ambae, Santo, Ambrym and Malakula for 2 days and are subsiding tonight in most northern areas. Epi, the Shepherds and Efate have been under the central core all day and this will continue into tonight, but later tonight conditions will slowly improve from north to south. The slow moving nature of the storm means that rainfalls in the hundreds of millimetres will have been registered throughout the region. Flooding from intermittent showers is still possible as all rivers and streams are running high.

Larger Southern Vanuatu Islands
Ivy’s center is near Erromango and will likely hit Tanna and Anatom later tonight. Widespread moderate to severe damage can be expected. The slow moving nature of the storm mean that rainfalls in the hundreds of millimetres will have been registered throughout the region and will be continuing. This will certainly be causing flash flooding of many stream valleys and larger rivers. The situation in hill and mountain areas of Erromango and Tanna is of particular concern.

GOV, NDMO and Donors should now prepare themselves for needing to make widespread assessments across almost all of big islands Vanuatu in the following days. This may be difficult as Vila itself is now likely to be directly hit and experience serious damage. In addition to flash flooding, coastal flooding and wind damage can be expected at least in localised areas near the centre.

Banks Group
The Banks Group is now out of the main storm area. However, outer feeder band activity is possible. The whole group has had very heavy rains, very rough seas and increasingly severe winds for almost 48 hours. With the centre having slowly moved over Mere Lava, this outer island may be particularly hard hit. With the cyclone pulling away from this Group, assessments should be done of the areas to determine the degree of wind damage and flooding. Crops are likely badly affected in some areas.

Anuta and Tikopia, Solomons
Anuta and Tikopia are now out of the main area of the storm but are still subject to outer feeder bands. Light to moderate damage caused by tidal flooding of low-lying areas, crop damage and possibly some damage to unstable structures is expected given the nearly 48 hours of punishment by this storm. However, the overall damage will not be anywhere as bad as with Cyclone Zoe. However, the cumulative effects of 3 major cyclones in 14 months (Zoe, Gina and now Ivy) may well be wearing down the ability of the people and their environment and its resources to sustainably cope. NDMO and Donors should endeavour to make contact with the islands to assess both the immediate effects of Ivy and cumulative effects of the last 3 storms on the overall situation.

Torres Groups, Vanuatu and Santa Cruz Group, Solomons
Outer feeder bands with heavy rains and squalls are still possible over Vanikolo. Seas remain very rough. The Torres Group, Vanikolo and to a lesser extent Utupua have received very heavy rainfall from their proximity to this slow moving storm so some flooding may have occurred. They should be assessed later today. The remainder of the Group has likely only experienced minor coastal flooding, but contact to all the all the smaller outliers should be undertaken to verify this.

Loyalty Islands, New Caledonia
Inner feeder bands are now moving in and conditions should begin to deteriorate in the next 4-8 hours.

General Alert
Concerns in New Caledonia including the Loyalty Islands should continue to monitor this storm as it develops over the next few days. Feeder bands will begin moving into the Loyalties in the next few hours.

APCEDI will continue monitoring the event. More detailed information about the storm can be found on


https://metoc.npmoc.navy.mil//jtwc.html
http://www.met.gov.fj/advisories.html
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html
http://www.afap.org
http://www.afap.org/apcedi

Thanks to Job Esau, John Henry and Philip of the Vanuatu NDMO for all the information.


Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator

APCEDI Alert 13P, Cyclone Ivy #13, 2004

Dear Colleagues

Alert 13, Cyclone Ivy 13P / 26 February 2004, Sydney 0800 EDT

Cyclone Ivy remains a Category 2 storm and may be gaining increased strength today reaching Category 3. A large area of deep convection remains at the centre of the storm. The central core of deep convection reaches from the Banks Group in the north to Erromango in the south and covers all the large Northern Islands and adjacent islets including the capital Vila. The centre of this core is now in the channel between Malakula and Ambrym. However instead of speeding up as forecasted, its forward speed has actually slowed down, and Ivy is now moving at 4 knots to the south.

Torrential rains continue over the southern Banks Group, Santo, Malakula, Maewo, Pentecost, Ambrym, Ambae, Epi the Shepherds and Efate. Intermittent heavy rains are over the Erromango, Tanna and Anatom. Due to the slow forward speed of Ivy, this torrential rainfall situation will continue today throughout Northern, Central and Southern Vanuatu. It should begin to clear from the Banks Islands and Santo this morning and from the the other Northern Islands later this afternoon. Already Cape Cumberland on Santo has just cleared from the central core area in the last hour.

Inner feeder bands with severe gales and heavy rains continue to effect Anuta and Tikopia with more heavy rain moving into Vanikolo, the rest of the Santa Cruz Group and the Torres Group.

Most predictive models continue to forecast Ivy tracking southerly across the length of Vanuatu throughout the next 24-36 hours and then on to the east of New Caledonia. The official track out of the JTWC has Ivy moving over the Central Islands today to just west of Vila this afternoon as a Category 2-3 storm and then on to the Loyalty Islands and New Caledonia tomorrow as a Category 3. As such, the APCEDI warnings will continue all of Vanuatu from the Banks Group south and for Anuta and Tikopia in the Solomons. The APCEDI alerts for the Santa Cruz Group and the Torres Group will be reinstated at this time as heavy feeder band activity is strengthening over them as Ivy’s movement slows. More heavy rain from feeder bands is again entering this northern area today. If the eye feature maintains it current course, it will continue to pass to the west of Epi and would be west of Vila in about 8-12 hours.

The current situation is summarised as follows:

Possible Damaging Category 2 Eyewall-strength Gales and Torrential Rains
Vanuatu
Malakula
Ambrym
Epi

Damaging Sustained Category 2 Gales and Heavy Rain
Vanuatu
Santo
Maewo
Pentecost
Ambae
Shepherd Islands
Efate (including the capital Vila)

Sustained Gales and Heavy Rain approaching damaging hurricane force in the next 6-10 hours
Vanuatu
Erromango
Tanna
Anatom

Intermittent Gales and Heavy Rain associated with Inner Feeder Bands (Storm now moving away)
Vanuatu
Banks Group
Torres Group
Solomons
Tikopia
Anuta
Santa Cruz Group

Given the continuing Category 2 nature of the storm, damage overall at this time should be moderate and localised. However, the danger from flash-flooding remains extremely high as the storm creeps so slowly toward the south. As Ivy continues this slow movement, very heavy widespread rainfall could result in flash-flooding of mountain and hill areas as well as known flood prone areas. This is especially critical for the large Vanuatu islands. Due to the islands’ very high relief and the slow movement of the storm, flash flooding will be a major threat throughout tonight and tomorrow especially if the the storm continues to pass slowly or even stalls. Locally severe damage will also likely occur near to the centre of the storm. Varying degrees of crop damage are also likely. Seas will be very rough to phenomenal resulting in tidal flooding of low-lying areas. If a central eye wall manages to re-emerge later today, and the storm strengthens, damage along its path will certainly be more severe.

Larger Vanuatu Islands
The centre of Ivy is now between Malakula and Ambrym. Torrential rains and damaging Category 2 gales have been pounding Maewo, Pentecost, Ambae, Santo, Ambrym and Malakula for 2 days and will continue for most of today although Santo and Banks should soon be out of the main convection. Epi, the Shepherds and Efate will likewise be under the central core all day. This core area moved into Efate overnight, and the situation is now deteriorating in Erromango, Tanna and Anatom. The slow moving nature of the storm mean that rainfalls in the hundreds of millimetres will have been registered throughout the region and will be continuing. This will certainly be causing flash flooding of many stream valleys and larger rivers. The situation in hill and mountain areas of Santo, Malakula, Ambae, Pentecost and Ambrym is of particular concern. This concern will extend to the Central and Southern Islands today and tomorrow. GOV, NDMO and Donors should now prepare themselves for needing to make widespread assessments across almost all of big islands Vanuatu in the following days. This may be difficult as Vila itself will be under the gun much of today. In addition to flash flooding, coastal flooding and wind damage can be expected at least in localised areas near the centre.

Efate and the Capital Vila
Damage in Port Vila will depend very much on where the storm passes, the strength at the time of passage and the forward speed. Most models are showing the centre of Ivy passing about 50-100 km west of Vila. This is close enough to cause moderate to locally severe damage. If the storm centre reaches strong Category 2 –Category 3 strength and passes close to or over Vila, then damage could be severe to locally catastrophic. If the it passes further off the coast at a Category 2 level, damage will be light to moderate.

Banks Group
The centre of the storm is finally moving away from Mere Lava and the rest of the Banks Group. However, heavy feeder band activity remains across the Group. The whole group has had very heavy rains, very rough seas and increasingly severe winds for almost 48 hours. With the centre having slowly moved over Mere Lava, this outer island may be particularly hard hit. With the cyclone pulling away from this Group, assessments should be done of the areas to determine the degree of wind damage and flooding. Crops are likely badly affected in some areas.

Anuta and Tikopia, Solomons
Anuta and Tikopia are now out of the centre of the storm but unfortunately still continue in the inner feeder bands. Gales and heavy rains should start subsiding in the next 6 hours and become more intermittent and less severe after this. Light to moderate damage caused by tidal flooding of low-lying areas, crop damage and possibly some damage to unstable structures is expected given the nearly 48 hours of punishment by this storm. However, the overall damage will not be anywhere as bad as with Cyclone Zoe. However, the cumulative effects of 3 major cyclones in 14 months (Zoe, Gina and now Ivy) may well be wearing down the ability of the people and their environment and its resources to sustainably cope. NDMO and Donors should endeavour to make contact with the islands to assess both the immediate effects of Ivy and cumulative effects of the last 3 storms on the overall situation.

Torres Groups, Vanuatu and Santa Cruz Group, Solomons
Inner feeder bands with heavy rains and squalls have actually regrouped and become more widespread over this area. Seas remain very rough. The Torres Group, Vanikolo and to a lesser extent Utupua have received very heavy rainfall from their proximity to this slow moving storm so some flooding may have occurred. They should be assessed later today. The remainder of the Group has likely only experienced minor coastal flooding, but contact to all the all the smaller outliers should be undertaken to verify this.

General Alert
Authorities in Vanuatu from the Banks Group to Anatom (including Torres and Banks Islands, Pentecost, Ambae, Santo, Malakula, Ambrym, Paama, Ulveah, Epi, Shepherd Islands, Efate, Erromango, Tanna and Anatom including all small islands in these areas) as well as Anuta and Tikopia in the Eastern Solomons should continue on alert, monitor the path of the storm closely throughout tonight and tomorrow and take immediate actions to protect people and property. People in mountain areas along the eastern and southern slopes of ranges should be on alert for heavy rain resulting in flash flooding. Low lying coastal areas especially along east and southern parts of large islands should also be on alert for tidal flooding.

Concerns in New Caledonia including the Loyalty Islands should continue to monitor this storm as it develops over the next few days.

APCEDI will continue monitoring the event. More detailed information about the storm can be found on

https://metoc.npmoc.navy.mil//jtwc.html
http://www.met.gov.fj/advisories.html
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator

APCEDI Alert 13P, Cyclone Ivy #15, 2004

Dear Colleagues

Alert 15, Cyclone Ivy 13P / 26 February 2004, Sydney 1830 EDT

Vila is now under the eye of Ivy and the situation has calmed within the eye zone, but they are awaiting the other half of the storm. Luckily phone contact has been maintained with the NDMO all day and this evening. Ivy is still a Category 3 storm and intensifying slowly.

Category 3 Eyewall force winds will push into Erromango shortly with the eye likely passing either over the island or just off the west coast. It is still possible that it will intensify into a Category 4 storm around this time. Ivy continues as a strong storm with serious implications for the damage scenario across Central and Southern Vanuatu. Vanuatu NDMO have lost communications to many of the Northern and Central Islands. However recently phone contact was established with West Ambrym, and some radio contact is being maintained with Maewo and Ambae. Donors will need to plan now on how to cope with this very widespread event which will have impacted every island in the nation by the time it is finished and likely done serious damage to the capital.

Reports are being posted at www.afap.org/apcedi which is off of our main website at www.afap.org

A large area of deep convection remains at the centre of the storm. The central core of deep convection reaches from southern Malakula in the north to Anatom in the south extending to New Caledonia’s Loyalty Islands. The inner core of deepest convection reaches from Southern Malakula and Ambrym in the north to Tanna in the South. This is the area of most concern. Ivy’s forward speed continues slow at 6 knots to the south.

Torrential rains continue over the southern Southern Malakula, Ambrym, Epi the Shepherds, Efate, Erromango, Tanna and Anatom. Intermittent heavy rains are over Northern Malakula, Maewo, Pentecost and Ambae. Due to the slow forward speed of Ivy, this torrential rainfall situation will continue today throughout Northern, Central and Southern Vanuatu. It continues to clear from the Banks Group and Santo and should start to clear from Maewo, Ambae and Pentecost shortly. Outer feeder bands with squalls continue to effect Tikopia, Vanikolo and the Banks and Torres Groups.

Most predictive models continue to forecast Ivy tracking southerly across the length of Vanuatu throughout the next 24 hours and then on to the east of New Caledonia. The official track out of the JTWC has Ivy moving over the Southern Islands tonight and then on to the Loyalty Islands and New Caledonia tomorrow as a Category 4 west of Tanna for 12 hours and then declining thereafter. As such, the APCEDI warnings will continue all of Vanuatu from the Banks Group south. The APCEDI alerts for the Santa Cruz Group and the Torres Group will be lifted again although isolated short-lived squalls will still occur. If the eye feature maintains it current course, it will continue to pass over or just west or over Erromango in 2-4 hours and then to Tanna a few hours later.

The current situation is summarised as follows:

Damaging Category 3 Eyewall-strength Winds and Torrential Rains
Vanuatu
Epi
Shepherds
Efate
Erromango

Damaging Category 2 Winds and Torrential Rains (moving away)
Vanuatu
Southern Malakula
Paama
Ulveah
Ambrym

Sustained Gales and Heavy Rain approaching damaging Category 3 force in the next 3-6 hours
Vanuatu
Tanna
Anatom

Intermittent Gales and Heavy Rain associated with Feeder Bands (Storm now moving away)
Vanuatu
Maewo
Pentecost
Ambae
Santo
Banks Group
Northern and Central Malakula
Solomons
Tikopia
Vanikolo
New Caledonia
Loyalty Islands (Feeder Bands pushing in soon).

Given the Category 3 nature of the storm, damage overall at this time should be widespread moderate to severe from Epi on south. Damage to the capital Vila could be severe although at present mostly widespread moderate damage is being reported from NDMO. The danger from flash-flooding remains extremely high as the storm creeps so slowly toward the south. As Ivy continues this slow movement, very heavy widespread rainfall could result in flash-flooding of mountain and hill areas as well as known flood prone areas. This is especially critical for the large Vanuatu islands. Due to the islands’ very high relief and the slow movement of the storm, flash flooding will be a major threat throughout tonight and tomorrow especially if the the storm continues to pass slowly or even stalls. Locally severe to catastrophic damage will also likely occur in and around the eye of the storm. Varying degrees of crop damage are also likely. Seas will be very rough to phenomenal resulting in tidal flooding of low-lying areas.

Efate and the capital, Port Vila
The eye of the storm has moved over Efate. NDMO is reporting widespread moderate to localised severe damage in Vila as follows:
trees down blocking roads
power lines and poles down
large fishing boat capsized near the main wharf with a resulting oil spill
1700 people in evacuation shelters
power off in parts of Vila but on in other parts
phones mostly functioning
flooding of low-lying areas
some small bridges being washed out

However the other half of the storm still must go over the capital so more damage, Category 3 winds and torrential rains will continue for 3-6 hours before dying down into intermittent squalls. With the entire country including the capital impacted by this event, GOV and the people of Vanuatu will need serious assistance to coordinate the assessment and relief efforts.

Larger Northern and Central Vanuatu Islands
NDMO has established communications with some islands and have had the following reports which have not been confirmed:
Maewo- (radio contact)-many unstable and older houses damaged, newer more permanent houses largely withstanding storm.
Ambae-(radio contact)-many houses damaged.
Ambrym-(telephone contact with west)-school severely damaged, many houses damaged.

The centre of Ivy is now over Efate. Torrential rains and damaging Category 2-3 winds have been pounding Maewo, Pentecost, Ambae, Santo, Ambrym and Malakula for 2 days but will subside over night in most northern area. Epi, the Shepherds and Efate have been under the central core all day and will continue into tonight. The slow moving nature of the storm mean that rainfalls in the hundreds of millimetres will have been registered throughout the region and will be continuing. This will certainly be causing flash flooding of many stream valleys and larger rivers. The situation in hill and mountain areas of Santo, Malakula, Ambae, Pentecost and Ambrym is of particular concern. as will be the high country on Erromango and Tanna.

Larger Southern Vanuatu Islands
The southern eyewall is moving into Erromango and will likely hit Tanna and Anatom later tonight. Widespread moderate to severe damage can be expected. The slow moving nature of the storm mean that rainfalls in the hundreds of millimetres will have been registered throughout the region and will be continuing. This will certainly be causing flash flooding of many stream valleys and larger rivers. The situation in hill and mountain areas of Erromango and Tanna is of particular concern.

GOV, NDMO and Donors should now prepare themselves for needing to make widespread assessments across almost all of big islands Vanuatu in the following days. This may be difficult as Vila itself is now likely to be directly hit and experience serious damage. In addition to flash flooding, coastal flooding and wind damage can be expected at least in localised areas near the centre.

Banks Group
The centre of the storm is finally moving away from the Banks Group. However, heavy feeder band activity remains in the south. The whole group has had very heavy rains, very rough seas and increasingly severe winds for almost 48 hours. With the centre having slowly moved over Mere Lava, this outer island may be particularly hard hit. With the cyclone pulling away from this Group, assessments should be done of the areas to determine the degree of wind damage and flooding. Crops are likely badly affected in some areas.

Anuta and Tikopia, Solomons
Anuta and Tikopia are now out of the centre of the storm but still are in the outer feeder bands. Gales and heavy rains should start subsiding in the next 6 hours and become more intermittent and less severe after this. Light to moderate damage caused by tidal flooding of low-lying areas, crop damage and possibly some damage to unstable structures is expected given the nearly 48 hours of punishment by this storm. However, the overall damage will not be anywhere as bad as with Cyclone Zoe. However, the cumulative effects of 3 major cyclones in 14 months (Zoe, Gina and now Ivy) may well be wearing down the ability of the people and their environment and its resources to sustainably cope. NDMO and Donors should endeavour to make contact with the islands to assess both the immediate effects of Ivy and cumulative effects of the last 3 storms on the overall situation.

Torres Groups, Vanuatu and Santa Cruz Group, Solomons
outer feeder bands with heavy rains and squalls remain over Vanikolo. Seas remain very rough. The Torres Group, Vanikolo and to a lesser extent Utupua have received very heavy rainfall from their proximity to this slow moving storm so some flooding may have occurred. They should be assessed later today. The remainder of the Group has likely only experienced minor coastal flooding, but contact to all the all the smaller outliers should be undertaken to verify this.

Loyalty Islands, New Caledonia
Inner feeder bands are now moving in and conditions should begin to deteriorate in the next 4-8 hours.

General Alert
Concerns in New Caledonia including the Loyalty Islands should continue to monitor this storm as it develops over the next few days. Feeder bands will begin moving into the Loyalties in the next few hours.

APCEDI will continue monitoring the event. More detailed information about the storm can be found on


https://metoc.npmoc.navy.mil//jtwc.html
http://www.met.gov.fj/advisories.html
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html
http://www.afap.org
http://www.afap.org/apcedi

Thanks to Job Esau, John Henry and Philip of the Vanuatu NDMO for all the information.


Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator

APCEDI Alert 13P, Cyclone Ivy #14, 2004

Dear Colleagues

Alert 14, Cyclone Ivy 13P / 26 February 2004, Sydney 1200 EDT

It is now very possible that the centre of Ivy will pass directly over or just west of Port Vila with Category 3 Eyewall force winds and that by the time Ivy reaches Erromango and Tanna, it will be a Category 4 storm. This seriously increases the damage scenario across Central and Southern Vanuatu. Vanuatu NDMO have lost communications to almost all of the Northern and Central Islands. Donors will need to plan now on how to cope with this very widespread event which will have impacted every island in the nation by the time it is finished and likely done serious damage to the capital.

Reports are being posted at www.afap.org/apcedi which is off of our main website at www.afap.org

Cyclone Ivy again formed a distinct but overcast eye as it approached Epi and Paama. The eyewall has now moved over Epi and is just going off the south shore in the direction of Emae which should be under or just east of the eye shortly. Ivy is now a Category 3 storm with very strong winds with sustained winds of 110 knots, much higher gusts, and torrential rains.

A large area of deep convection remains at the centre of the storm. The central core of deep convection reaches from southern Santo Island in the north to Erromango in the south and covers all the large Northern Islands and adjacent islets including the capital Vila. However instead of speeding up as forecasted, its forward speed continues slow at 4-6 knots to the south.

Torrential rains continue over the southern Southern Santo, Malakula, Maewo, Pentecost, Ambrym, Ambae, Epi the Shepherds, Efate, Erromango and Tanna. Intermittent heavy rains are over Northern Santo and the Banks Group in the north and Anatom in the south. Due to the slow forward speed of Ivy, this torrential rainfall situation will continue today throughout Northern, Central and Southern Vanuatu. It is finally beginning to clear from the Banks Group and Northern Santo and should start to clear from Maewo shortly.

Inner feeder bands with gales and heavy rains continue to effect Tikopia but Anuta is now clear. More heavy rain showers are moving into Vanikolo, but the rest of the Santa Cruz Group and the Torres Group just have patchy light to moderate showers.

Most predictive models continue to forecast Ivy tracking southerly across the length of Vanuatu throughout the next 24-36 hours and then on to the east of New Caledonia. The official track out of the JTWC has Ivy moving over the Central Islands today and over Vila this afternoon as a Category 3 storm and then on to the Loyalty Islands and New Caledonia tomorrow as a Category 4 west of Tanna for 12 hours and then declining thereafter. As such, the APCEDI warnings will continue all of Vanuatu from the Banks Group south and for Anuta and Tikopia in the Solomons. The APCEDI alerts for the Santa Cruz Group and the Torres Group will be left up for one more report, but it is now likely that most of the Santa Cruz Group as well as Anuta are now out of harm’s way. If the eye feature maintains it current course, it will continue to pass over or just west of Emae in the next hour and then over Vila in about 4-6 hours.

The current situation is summarised as follows:

Damaging Category 3 Eyewall-strength Winds and Torrential Rains
Vanuatu
Epi
Emae and Shepherd Islands

Damaging Category 2 Winds and Torrential Rains
Vanuatu
Southern Malakula
Paama
Ulveah
Ambrym
Efate

Damaging Sustained Gales and Heavy Rain
Vanuatu
Maewo
Pentecost
Ambae
Northern and Central Malakula
Erromango
Tanna

Sustained Gales and Heavy Rain approaching damaging hurricane force in the next 6-10 hours
Vanuatu
Anatom

Intermittent Gales and Heavy Rain associated with Inner Feeder Bands (Storm now moving away)
Vanuatu
Southern Banks Group
Solomons
Tikopia
Vanikolo
New Caledonia
Loyalty Islands (Feeder Bands pushing in soon).

Given the Category 3 nature of the storm, damage overall at this time should be moderate to severe from Ambrym on south. Damage to the capital Vila could be severe. The danger from flash-flooding remains extremely high as the storm creeps so slowly toward the south. As Ivy continues this slow movement, very heavy widespread rainfall could result in flash-flooding of mountain and hill areas as well as known flood prone areas. This is especially critical for the large Vanuatu islands. Due to the islands’ very high relief and the slow movement of the storm, flash flooding will be a major threat throughout tonight and tomorrow especially if the the storm continues to pass slowly or even stalls. Locally severe to catastrophic damage will also likely occur in and around the eye of the storm. Varying degrees of crop damage are also likely. Seas will be very rough to phenomenal resulting in tidal flooding of low-lying areas.

Efate and the capital, Port Vila
Unless either the course or intensity of Ivy change in the next few hours, Port Vila is likely to receive moderate to severe damage with isolated areas of catastrophic damage. Electricity is out over most of the island although phones are still functioning in parts of Vila. NDMO has lost contact with almost all the Northern and Central Islands. It is likely that when the eyewall passes over Vila, most communication facilities will be knocked out. With the entire country including the capital impacted by this event, GOV and the people of Vanuatu will need serious assistance to coordinate the assessment and relief efforts.

Larger Northern and Central Vanuatu Islands
The centre of Ivy is just to the south of Epi. Torrential rains and damaging Category 2-3 winds have been pounding Maewo, Pentecost, Ambae, Santo, Ambrym and Malakula for 2 days and will continue for most of today although Santo and Banks will soon be out of the main convection. Epi, the Shepherds and Efate will likewise be under the central core all day. The slow moving nature of the storm mean that rainfalls in the hundreds of millimetres will have been registered throughout the region and will be continuing. This will certainly be causing flash flooding of many stream valleys and larger rivers. The situation in hill and mountain areas of Santo, Malakula, Ambae, Pentecost and Ambrym is of particular concern. as will be the high country on Erromango and Tanna.

Larger Southern Vanuatu Islands
The situation is now deteriorating in Erromango, Tanna and Anatom. The slow moving nature of the storm mean that rainfalls in the hundreds of millimetres will have been registered throughout the region and will be continuing. This will certainly be causing flash flooding of many stream valleys and larger rivers. The situation in hill and mountain areas of Erromango and Tanna is of particular concern.

GOV, NDMO and Donors should now prepare themselves for needing to make widespread assessments across almost all of big islands Vanuatu in the following days. This may be difficult as Vila itself is now likely to be directly hit and experience serious damage. In addition to flash flooding, coastal flooding and wind damage can be expected at least in localised areas near the centre.

Banks Group
The centre of the storm is finally moving away from the Banks Group. However, heavy feeder band activity remains in the south. The whole group has had very heavy rains, very rough seas and increasingly severe winds for almost 48 hours. With the centre having slowly moved over Mere Lava, this outer island may be particularly hard hit. With the cyclone pulling away from this Group, assessments should be done of the areas to determine the degree of wind damage and flooding. Crops are likely badly affected in some areas.

Anuta and Tikopia, Solomons
Anuta and Tikopia are now out of the centre of the storm but unfortunately still continue in the inner feeder bands. Gales and heavy rains should start subsiding in the next 6 hours and become more intermittent and less severe after this. Light to moderate damage caused by tidal flooding of low-lying areas, crop damage and possibly some damage to unstable structures is expected given the nearly 48 hours of punishment by this storm. However, the overall damage will not be anywhere as bad as with Cyclone Zoe. However, the cumulative effects of 3 major cyclones in 14 months (Zoe, Gina and now Ivy) may well be wearing down the ability of the people and their environment and its resources to sustainably cope. NDMO and Donors should endeavour to make contact with the islands to assess both the immediate effects of Ivy and cumulative effects of the last 3 storms on the overall situation.

Torres Groups, Vanuatu and Santa Cruz Group, Solomons
Inner feeder bands with heavy rains and squalls remain over Vanikolo. Seas remain very rough. The Torres Group, Vanikolo and to a lesser extent Utupua have received very heavy rainfall from their proximity to this slow moving storm so some flooding may have occurred. They should be assessed later today. The remainder of the Group has likely only experienced minor coastal flooding, but contact to all the all the smaller outliers should be undertaken to verify this.

General Alert
Concerns in New Caledonia including the Loyalty Islands should continue to monitor this storm as it develops over the next few days. Feeder bands will begin moving into the Loyalties in the next few hours.

APCEDI will continue monitoring the event. More detailed information about the storm can be found on


https://metoc.npmoc.navy.mil//jtwc.html
http://www.met.gov.fj/advisories.html
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html
http://www.afap.org and http://www.afap.org/apcedi

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator

APCEDI Alert 13P, Cyclone Ivy #12, 2004

Dear Colleagues

Alert 12, Cyclone Ivy 13P / 25 February 2004, Sydney 2200 EDT

Cyclone Ivy has weakened slightly, and the eye has been filled in by a large area of deep convection similar to the situation in the earlier history of the storm. It is now a weak Category 2 storm. The central core of deep convection reaches from the Banks Group in the north to Epi in the South and covers all the large Northern Islands and adjacent islets. The centre of this core is just to the west on the main city of Lonorore on the island of Pentecost. Ivy is still slow moving but is forecasted to pick up some forward speed toward the south in the next 6 hours.

Torrential rains continue over the southern Banks Group, Santo, Malakula, Maewo, Pentecost, Ambrym, Ambae and Epi. Intermittent heavy rains are over the Shepherd Islands, Efate and the capital Vila. Due to the slow forward speed of Ivy, this torrential rainfall situation will continue into tonight and tomorrow throughout Northern and Central Vanuatu.

Inner feeder bands with severe gales and heavy rains continue to effect Anuta and Tikopia with more heavy rain having recently again moved into Vanikolo and the Torres Group. Further to the north, the weather over Nendo and the North Santa Cruz continues to improve.

Most predictive models continue to forecast Ivy tracking southerly across the length of Vanuatu throughout the next 24-36 hours and then on to New Caledonia. The official track out of the JTWC has Ivy moving over the Northern Islands this evening to just west of Vila tomorrow morning as a Category 2-3 storm and then on to the Loyalty Islands and New Caledonia tomorrow as a Category 3. As such, the APCEDI warnings will continue all of Vanuatu from the Banks Group south and for Anuta and Tikopia in the Solomons. The APCEDI alerts for the Santa Cruz Group and the Torres have been lifted. However, isolated, intermittent heavy showers are still likely. In fact more heavy rain from feeder bands is again entering this northern area tonight. If the eye feature maintains it current course, it will continue to pass to the west of Pentecost and would be over Ambrym or Southern Malakula in about 4-6 hours.

The current situation is summarised as follows:

Possible Damaging Category 2 Eyewall-strength Gales and Torrential Rains
Vanuatu
Maewo (Entire Island)
Pentecost (Entire Island)
Ambae (Entire Island)
Santo (East and South Coast)
Malakula (East and South Coast)
Ambrym (Entire Island)

Damaging Sustained Category 1-2 Gales and Heavy Rain
Vanuatu
Mere Lava (but soon decreasing)
Santo (West Coast)
Malakula (West Coast)
Epi (Entire Island)

Sustained Gales and Heavy Rain with approaching damaging hurricane force in the next 4-6 hours
Vanuatu
Efate
Shepherd Islands

Sustained Gales and Heavy Rain approaching damaging hurricane force in the next 6-10 hours
Vanuatu
Erromango
Tanna
Anatom

Intermittent Gales and Heavy Rain associated with Inner Feeder Bands (Storm now moving away)
Vanuatu
Banks Group
Torres Group
Solomons
Tikopia
Anuta
Vanikolo

Given the continuing Category 2 nature of the storm, damage overall at this time should be moderate and localised. However, the danger from flash-flooding is increasing. As Ivy continues to be so slow moving, this will likely result in very heavy widespread rainfall which could result in flash-flooding of mountain and hill areas as well as known flood prone areas. This is especially critical for the large Vanuatu Islands particularly Santo. Due to the islands’ very high relief and the slow movement of the storm, flash flooding will be a major threat throughout tonight and tomorrow especially if the the storm continues to pass slowly or even stalls. Locally moderate to severe damage will also likely occur near to the centre of the storm. Varying degrees of crop damage are also likely. Seas will be very rough to phenomenal resulting in tidal flooding of low-lying areas. If a central eye wall manages to re-emerge later tonight, and the storm strengthens, damage along its path will certainly be more severe.

Larger Vanuatu Islands
The centre of Ivy is now west of Pentecost. Torrential rains and damaging Category 1-2 gales have been pounding Maewo, Pentecost, Ambae, Santo, Ambrym and Malakula for most of the day and will continue for most of the night. This rough weather had moved into Epi and the Shepherds since this afternoon, and the situation is now deteriorating in Efate and Vila tonight. The slow moving nature of the storm mean that rainfalls in the hundreds of millimetres will have been registered throughout the region and will be continuing. This will certainly be causing flash flooding of many stream valleys and larger rivers. The situation in hill and mountain areas of Santo, Malakula, Ambae, Pentecost and Ambrym is of particular concern. GOV, NDMO and Donors should now prepare themselves for needing to make widespread assessments across most of the big islands of northern Vanuatu tomorrow and in the following days. This may be difficult as Vila itself will be under the gun much of tomorrow. In addition to flash flooding, coastal flooding and wind damage can be expected at least in localised areas near the centre.

Banks Group
The centre of the storm is finally moving away from Mere Lava and the rest of the Banks Group. The whole group has had very heavy rains, very rough seas and increasingly severe winds for almost 36 hours. With the centre having slowly moved over Mere Lava, this outer island may be particularly hard hit. With the cyclone pulling away from this Group, assessments should be done of the areas to determine the degree of wind damage and flooding. Crops are likely badly affected in some areas.

Anuta and Tikopia, Solomons
Anuta and Tikopia are now out of the centre of the storm but unfortunately still continue in the inner feeder bands. Gales and heavy rains should start subsiding in the next 6 hours and become more intermittent and less severe after this. Light to moderate damage caused by tidal flooding of low-lying areas, crop damage and possibly some damage to unstable structures is expected given the nearly 36 hours of punishment by this storm. However, the overall damage will not be anywhere as bad as with Cyclone Zoe. However, the cumulative effects of 3 major cyclones in 14 months (Zoe, Gina and now Ivy) may well be wearing down the ability of the people and their environment and its resources to sustainably cope. NDMO and Donors should endeavour to make contact with the islands to assess both the immediate effects of Ivy and cumulative effects of the last 3 storms on the overall situation.

Torres Groups, Vanuatu and Santa Cruz Group, Solomons
Inner feeder bands with heavy rains and squalls are now beginning to break up and subside over the region. Seas will remain very rough. The Torres Group, Vanikolo and to a lesser extent Utupua have received very heavy rainfall from their proximity to this slow moving storm so some flooding may have occurred. They should be assessed later today. The remainder of the Group has likely only experienced minor coastal flooding, but contact to all the all the smaller outliers should be undertaken to verify this.

General Alert
Authorities in Vanuatu from the Banks Group to Anatom (including Torres and Banks Islands, Pentecost, Ambae, Santo, Malakula, Ambrym, Paama, Ulveah, Epi, Shepherd Islands, Efate, Erromango, Tanna and Anatom including all small islands in these areas) as well as Anuta and Tikopia in the Eastern Solomons should continue on alert, monitor the path of the storm closely throughout tonight and tomorrow and take immediate actions to protect people and property. People in mountain areas along the eastern and southern slopes of ranges should be on alert for heavy rain resulting in flash flooding. Low lying coastal areas especially along east and southern parts of large islands should also be on alert for tidal flooding.

Concerns in New Caledonia including the Loyalty Islands should continue to monitor this storm as it develops over the next few days.

APCEDI will continue monitoring the event. More detailed information about the storm can be found on

https://metoc.npmoc.navy.mil//jtwc.html
http://www.met.gov.fj/advisories.html
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator

APCEDI Alert 13P, Cyclone Ivy #11, 2004

Dear Colleagues

Alert 11, Cyclone Ivy 13P / 25 February 2004, Sydney 1800 EDT

The centre of Cyclone Ivy is slowly moving over Maewo, Pentecost and Ambae with the eye over Ambae. It is slowly moving south. A very defined but slightly cloud filled eye formed about 4-5 hours ago just west of Mere Lava. However interaction with the larger islands and entrainment of some dryer air has again made the eye rather indistinct. It is maintaining its strength as a Category 2 Cyclone. However, interaction with the larger islands may drop its strength back to a borderline Category 1-2 Cyclone, or if the centre gets into open water, strengthening is also possible. So the exact track is very critical.

The slow moving nature of the storm continues to be problematic with high rainfall totals throughout the Northern Islands of Vanuatu, and the likelihood of further high totals in the next 12-24 hours. Torrential rains are now over Santo, Malakula, Maewo, Pentecost, Ambrym, Ambae Epi and the Shepherd Islands. Torrential rains are just starting to move into Efate. Due to the slow forward speed of Ivy, this will continue into tonight and tomorrow while spreading southward.

Inner feeder bands with severe gales and heavy rains continue to effect Anuta and Tikopia. However, a pocket of more dry weather has moved over the Banks and Torres Islands giving them their first respite in 2 days. Further to the north, the weather is starting to clear over the Santa Cruz Group with only isolated heavy showers.

Most predictive models are now showing Ivy tracking southerly across the length of Vanuatu throughout the next 24-48 hours. The official track out of the JTWC has Ivy moving over the Northern Islands this evening to just west of Vila tomorrow morning as a Category 2-3 storm and then on to the Loyalty Islands and New Caledonia tomorrow as a Category 3. As such, the APCEDI warnings will continue all of Vanuatu from the Banks Group south and for Anuta and Tikopia in the Solomons. The APCEDI warnings for the Santa Cruz Group and the Torres will now be lifted while still noting that isolated, intermittent heavy showers are still likely. If the eye feature maintains it current course, it will pass to the west of Pentecost and would be over Ambrym in about 4-6 hours.

The current situation is summarised as follows:

Possible Damaging Category 2 Eyewall-strength Gales and Torrential Rains
Vanuatu
Maewo (Entire Island)
Pentecost (Entire Island)
Ambae (Entire Island)
Santo (East and South Coast)
Malakula (East and South Coast)
Ambrym (Entire Island)

Damaging Sustained Category 1-2 Gales and Heavy Rain
Vanuatu
Mere Lava (but soon decreasing)
Santo (West Coast)
Malakula (West Coast)
Epi
Shepherd Islands

Sustained Gales and Heavy Rain approaching damaging hurricane force in the next 2-4 hours
Vanuatu
Efate

Sustained Gales and Heavy Rain approaching damaging hurricane force in the next 4-8 hours
Vanuatu
Erromango
Tanna
Anatom

Intermittent Gales and Heavy Rain associated with Inner Feeder Bands (Storm now moving away)
Vanuatu
Banks Group
Solomons
Tikopia
Anuta

Given the continuing Category 1-2 nature of the storm, damage at this time should be light to moderate and localised. However, locally moderate to severe damage could occur near to the centre of the storm. Main threats will continue to include lowland tidal flooding and flash-flooding in hill and mountain areas. Varying degrees of crop damage is also likely. As Ivy continues to be slow moving, this will likely result in heavy localised rainfall which could result in flash-flooding of mountain and hill areas as well as known flood prone areas. This is especially critical for the large Vanuatu Islands particularly Santo. Due to the islands’ very high relief and the slow movement of the storm, flash flooding will be a major threat throughout tonight and tomorrow especially if the the storms passes over the islands slowly or even stalls. If a central eye wall manages to emerge later tonight, and the storm strengthens to Category 2-3, damage along its path will certainly be more severe.

Larger Vanuatu Islands
The centre of Ivy is now over Ambae, Maewo and Pentecost. In addition to these islands torrential rains and damaging Category 1-2 gales have also been pounding Santo, Ambrym and Malakula for most of the day. This rough weather moved into Epi and the Shepherds this afternoon and the situation will begin deteriorating in Efate and Vila this evening and tonight. The slow moving nature of the storm mean that rainfalls in the hundreds of millimetres will have been registered throughout the region and will be continuing. This will certainly be causing flash flooding of many stream valleys and larger rivers. The situation in hill and mountain areas of Santo, Malakula, Ambae and Pentecost is of particular concern. GOV, NDMO and Donors should now prepare themselves for needing to make widespread assessments across most of the big islands of northern Vanuatu tomorrow and in the following days. This may be difficult as Vila itself will be under the gun much of tomorrow. In addition to flash flooding, coastal flooding and wind damage can be expected at least in localised areas near the centre.

Banks Group
The centre of the storm is finally moving away from Mere Lava and the rest of the Banks Group. The whole group has had very heavy rains, very rough seas and increasingly severe winds for almost 36 hours. With the centre having slowly moved over Mere Lava, this outer island may be particularly hard hit. With the cyclone pulling away from this Group, assessments should be done of the areas to determine the degree of wind damage and flooding. Crops are likely badly affected in some areas.

Anuta and Tikopia, Solomons
Anuta and Tikopia are now out of the centre of the storm but unfortunately still continue in the inner feeder bands. Gales and heavy rains should start subsiding in the next 6 hours and become more intermittent and less severe after this. Light to moderate damage caused by tidal flooding of low-lying areas, crop damage and possibly some damage to unstable structures is expected given the nearly 36 hours of punishment by this storm. However, the overall damage will not be anywhere as bad as with Cyclone Zoe. However, the cumulative effects of 3 major cyclones in 14 months (Zoe, Gina and now Ivy) may well be wearing down the ability of the people and their environment and its resources to sustainably cope. NDMO and Donors should endeavour to make contact with the islands to assess both the immediate effects of Ivy and cumulative effects of the last 3 storms on the overall situation.

Torres Groups, Vanuatu and Santa Cruz Group, Solomons
Inner feeder bands with heavy rains and squalls are now beginning to break up and subside over the region. Seas will remain very rough. The Torres Group, Vanikolo and to a lesser extent Utupua have received very heavy rainfall from their proximity to this slow moving storm so some flooding may have occurred. They should be assessed later today. The remainder of the Group has likely only experienced minor coastal flooding, but contact to all the all the smaller outliers should be undertaken to verify this.


General Alert
Authorities in Vanuatu from the Banks Group to Anatom (including Torres and Banks Islands, Pentecost, Ambae, Santo, Malakula, Ambrym, Paama, Ulveah, Epi, Shepherd Islands, Efate, Erromango, Tanna and Anatom including all small islands in these areas) as well as Anuta and Tikopia in the Eastern Solomons should conntinue on alert, monitor the path of the storm closely throughout tonight and tomorrow and take immediate actions to protect people and property. People in mountain areas along the eastern and southern slopes of ranges should be on alert for heavy rain resulting in flash flooding. Low lying coastal areas especially along east and southern parts of large islands should also be on alert for tidal flooding.

Concerns in New Caledonia including the Loyalty Islands should continue to monitor this storm as it develops over the next few days.

APCEDI will continue monitoring the event. More detailed information about the storm can be found on

https://metoc.npmoc.navy.mil//jtwc.html
http://www.met.gov.fj/advisories.html
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator

APCEDI Alert 13P, Cyclone Ivy #10, 2004

Dear Colleagues

Alert 10, Cyclone Ivy 13P / 25 February 2004, Sydney 1100 EDT

Cyclone Ivy is slowly moving over the Banks Group and into the area of the large Northern Islands of Vanuatu. It is maintaining its strength as a borderline Category 1-2 Cyclone which could strengthen during the day although models disagree. The centre of the storm recently formed an eye-like feature just east of the Banks Group in the vicinity of Mere Lava which has tracked to just west of the Northern tip of Maewo. The formation of an eye indicates strengthening into a more solid Category 2 storm.

The slow moving nature of the storm is becoming increasingly problematic with high rainfall totals throughout the Banks Group and Northern Islands of Vanuatu, and the likelihood of further high totals in the next 12-24 hours. Torrential rains are now over the Banks Group, Santo, Malakula, Maewo, Pentecost, Ambrym and Ambae and this will continue all day into tonight and spread southward.

Inner feeder bands with severe gales and heavy rains continue to effect Anuta and Tikopia, the Torres Group and most of the Santa Cruz Group. However the storm should be clearing from these areas in the next 6-12 hours if it maintains its more southerly course.

Ivy is now beginning to more closely match model predictions although there is still some significant degree of variance. Most predictive models are now showing Ivy tracking southerly across the length of Vanuatu throughout the next 24-48 hours. The official track out of the JTWC has Ivy moving over the Northern Islands to just west of Vila tonight as a Category 2-3 storm and then on to the Loyalty Islands and New Caledonia tomorrow as a Category 3. As such, the APCEDI warnings will continue all of Vanuatu and all the Santa Cruz Group. If the eye feature maintains it current course, it would move it over Santo in about 4-6 hours.

The current situation is summarised as follows:

Possible Damaging Category 1-2 Eyewall-strength Gales and Torrential Rains
Vanuatu
Banks Group particularly over Mere Lava
Maewo particularly on the northern end of the island.
Ambae

Damaging Sustained Category 1-2 Cyclonic Gales and Heavy Rain
Vanuatu
Pentecost
Santo
Ambrym
Malakula

Sustained Gales and Heavy Rain approaching damaging hurricane force in the next 2-4 hours
Vanuatu
Epi
Shepherd Islands

Sustained Gales and Heavy Rain approaching damaging hurricane force in the next 4-8 hours
Vanuatu
Efate
Erromango

Intermittent Gales and Heavy Rain associated with Inner Feeder Bands (Storm now moving away)
Vanuatu
Torres Group
Solomons
Nendo
Nupani
Duffs
Swallows
Tikopia
Anuta
Vanikolo
Utupua

Alert for Increasing Threat of Gales and Heavy Winds tonight and tomorrow
Vanuatu
Tanna
Anatom

Given the continuing Category 1-2 nature of the storm, damage at this time should be light to moderate and localised. However, locally moderate to severe damage could occur near to the centre of the storm. Main threats will continue to include lowland tidal flooding and flash-flooding in hill and mountain areas. Varying degrees of crop damage is also likely. As Ivy continues to be slow moving, this will likely result in heavy localised rainfall which could result in flash-flooding of mountain and hill areas as well as known flood prone areas. This is especially critical for the large Vanuatu Islands particularly Santo. Due to the islands’ very high relief and the slow movement of the storm, flash flooding will be a major threat throughout tonight and tomorrow especially if the the storms passes over the islands slowly or even stalls. If a central eye wall manages to emerge later tonight, and the storm strengthens to Category 2-3, damage along its path will certainly be more severe.

Banks Group
The centre of the storm is now over this group with a possible formative eye feature near Mere Lava. The whole group has had very heavy rains, very rough seas and increasingly severe winds for almost 24 hours with another 6-12 to go. With the centre slowly moving over Mere Lava, this outer island may be particularly hard hit. With the cyclone pulling away from these groups in the next 6-12 hours, assessments should be done of the areas to determine the degree of wind damage and flooding which will likely be a major threat particularly on the larger Banks Islands and the more low-lying atolls.

Anuta and Tikopia, Solomons
Anuta and Tikopia are now out of the centre area of the storm and in the inner feeder bands. Gales and heavy rains should start subsiding in the next 6 hours and become more intermittent and less severe after this. Light to moderate damage caused by tidal flooding of low-lying areas, crop damage and possibly some damage to unstable structures is expected given the nearly 24 hours of punishment by this storm. However, the overall damage will not be anywhere as bad as with Cyclone Zoe. However, the cumulative effects of 3 major cyclones in 14 months (Zoe, Gina and now Ivy) may well be wearing down the ability of the people and their environment and its resources to sustainably cope. NDMO and Donors should endeavour to make contact with the islands to assess both the immediate effects of Ivy and cumulative effects of the last 3 storms on the overall situation.


Torres Groups, Vanuatu and Santa Cruz Group, Solomons
Inner feeder bands with heavy rains and squalls continue over this region. Seas will be very rough as well. The Torres Group, Vanikolo and to a lesser extent Utupua have received very heavy rainfall from their proximity to this slow moving storm so some flooding may have occurred. They should be assessed later today. The remainder of the Group has likely only experienced minor coastal flooding, but contact to all the all the smaller outliers should be undertaken to verify this.

Larger Vanuatu Islands
GOV, NDMO and Donors should now prepare themselves for needing to make widespread assessments across most of the big islands of northern Vanuatu tomorrow and in the following days. While the Category 1-2 size of the storm should limit damage, the slow movement of the storm could still bring serious flash flooding in hill areas. Coastal flooding and wind damage can be expected at least in localised areas near the centre. Plans need to be made with the knowledge that the capital Vila is also likely to be impacted by the storm.

General Alert
Authorities in Vanuatu from the Torres Islands to Anatom (including Torres and Banks Islands, Pentecost, Ambae, Santo, Malakula, Ambrym, Paama, Ulveah, Epi, Shepherd Islands, Efate, Erromango, Tanna and Anatom including all small islands in these areas) as well as all of the Santa Cruz Group in the Eastern Solomons should be on alert, monitor the path of the storm closely throughout tonight and tomorrow and take immediate actions to protect people and property. People in mountain areas along the eastern and southern slopes of ranges should be on alert for heavy rain resulting in flash flooding. Low lying coastal areas especially along east and southern parts of large islands should also be on alert for tidal flooding.

Concerns in New Caledonia including the Loyalty Islands should continue to monitor this storm as it develops over the next few days.

APCEDI will continue monitoring the event. More detailed information about the storm can be found on

https://metoc.npmoc.navy.mil//jtwc.html
http://www.met.gov.fj/advisories.html
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator

APCEDI Alert 13P, Cyclone Ivy #9, 2004

Dear Colleagues

Alert 9, Cyclone Ivy 13P / 25 February 2004, Sydney 0800 EDT

Cyclone Ivy has strengthened overnight and has begun its decurvature to the south. It is now a borderline Category 1-2 Cyclone moving southwest at 5 knots. The eye feature is still not clear, but the central core of convection extends from the Banks Group in the North to Santo in the west to Pentecost in the south. The deepest convection, and thus very heavy sustained rain and gales is over Mere Lava and Northern Maewo.

On its current track this central area of deep convection will be moving over most of the big northern islands and be centred between Malakula and Ambrym in 6-12 hours.

Inner feeder bands with severe gales and heavy rains continue to effect Anuta and Tikopia, the Torres Group and most of the Santa Cruz Group. However the storm should be clearing from these areas in the next 6-12 hours if it maintains its more southerly course.

Most predictive models are now showing Ivy tracking southerly across the length of Vanuatu throughout the next 24-48 hours.. The official track out of the JTWC has Ivy moving over the Northern Islands to just west of Vila tonight as a Category 2-3 storm and then on to the Loyalty Islands and New Caledonia tomorrow as a Category 3. As such, the APCEDI warnings will continue all of Vanuatu north of Efate and all the Santa Cruz Group and will be extended to include Southern Vanuatu Islands of Erromango, Tanna and Anatom.

The current situation is summarised as follows:

Damaging Sustained Category 1-2 Cyclonic Gales and Heavy Rain
Vanuatu
Banks Group
Maewo
Pentecost
Ambae
Santo
Ambrym
Malakula

Sustained Gales and Heavy Rain approaching damaging Category 1 force in the next 3-8 hours
Vanuatu
Epi
Shepherd Islands
Efate

Intermittent Gales and Heavy Rain associated with Inner Feeder Bands (Storm now moving away)
Vanuatu
Torres Group
Solomons
Nendo
Nupani
Duffs
Swallows
Tikopia
Anuta
Vanikolo
Utupua

Alert for Increasing Threat of Gales and Heavy Winds tonight and tomorrow
Vanuatu
Erromango
Tanna
Anatom

Given the continuing Category 1-2 nature of the storm, damage at this time should be light to moderate and localised. However, locally moderate to severe damage could occur near to the centre of the storm. Main threats will continue to include lowland tidal flooding and flash-flooding in hill areas. Some crop damage is also likely. As Ivy continues to be slow moving, this will likely result in heavy localised rainfall which could result in flash-flooding of mountain and hill areas as well as known flood prone areas. This is especially critical for the large Vanuatu Islands particularly Santo. Due to the islands’ very high relief and the slow movement of the storm, flash flooding will be a major threat throughout tonight and tomorrow especially if the the storms passes over the islands slowly or even stalls. If a central eye wall manages to emerge later tonight, and the storm strengthens to Category 2-3, damage along its path will certainly be more severe.

Anuta and Tikopia, Solomons
Anuta and Tikopia are now out of the centre area of the storm and in the inner feeder bands. Gales and heavy rains should start subsiding in the next 6 hours and become more intermittent and less severe after this. Light to moderate damage caused by tidal flooding of low-lying areas, crop damage and possibly some damage to unstable structures is expected given the nearly 24 hours of punishment by this storm. However, the overall damage will not be anywhere as bad as with Cyclone Zoe. However, the cumulative effects of 3 major cyclones in 14 months (Zoe, Gina and now Ivy) may well be wearing down the ability of the people and their environment and its resources to sustainably cope. NDMO and Donors should endeavour to make contact with the islands to assess both the immediate effects of Ivy and cumulative effects of the last 3 storms on the overall situation.

Banks and Torres Groups, Vanuatu
With the cyclone pulling away from these groups in the next 6-12 hours, a general survey should be done of the areas to assess the degree of flooding which will likely be the major threat particularly on the larger Banks Islands and the more low-lying atolls. The eastern most island of Mere Lava should be assessed quickly tonight or early tomorrow since the centre of the storm has likely passed over or very close to this island.

Santa Cruz Group, Solomons
Vanilkolo and to a lesser extent Utupua have received very heavy rainfall from their proximity to this slow moving storm so some flooding may have occurred. They should be assessed later today. The remainder of the Group has likely only experienced minor coastal flooding, but contact to all the all the smaller outliers should be undertaken to verify this.

Larger Vanuatu Islands
GOV, NDMO and Donors should now prepare themselves for needing to make widespread assessments across most of the big islands of northern Vanuatu tomorrow and in the following days. While the Category 1-2 size of the storm should limit damage, coastal flooding, flash flooding in hill areas and wind damage can be expected at least in localised areas near the centre. Plans need to be made with the knowledge that the capital Vila is also likely to be effected by the storm.

General Alert
Authorities in Vanuatu from the Torres Islands to Anatom (including Torres and Banks Islands, Pentecost, Ambae, Santo, Malakula, Ambrym, Paama, Ulveah, Epi, Shepherd Islands, Efate, Erromango, Tanna and Anatom including all small islands in these areas) as well as all of the Santa Cruz Group in the Eastern Solomons should be on alert, monitor the path of the storm closely throughout tonight and tomorrow and take immediate actions to protect people and property. People in mountain areas along the eastern and southern slopes of ranges should be on alert for heavy rain resulting in flash flooding. Low lying coastal areas especially along east and southern parts of large islands should also be on alert for tidal flooding.

Concerns in New Caledonia including the Loyalty Islands should continue to monitor this storm as it develops over the next few days.

APCEDI will continue monitoring the event. More detailed information about the storm can be found on

https://metoc.npmoc.navy.mil//jtwc.html
http://www.met.gov.fj/advisories.html
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator

APCEDI Alert 13P, Cyclone Ivy #8, 2004

Dear Colleagues

Alert 8, Cyclone Ivy 13P / 24 February 2004, Sydney 23:30 EDT

Cyclone Ivy continues to behave unusually. This evening it seemed to lose much of its deep central convection and weakened slightly to a minimal Category 1 storm or maybe even a little less. However, it has ceased any northern movement as it is now drifting slowly west at about 7 knots.

The deepest convection has been to the north of Ivy’s centre over Anuta and Tikopia for most of the evening. However it seems to be consolidating around Ivy’s centre which is about 50 km east of the Banks Group. On its current track this central area of deep convection will be moving over the Banks Group and Maewo, Pentecost and Ambae in the next 2-4 hours.

Feeder bands with intermittent squalls and heavy rains cover much of the Solomons and Vanuatu.

All day most predictive models have continued to show an imminent southern shift in the storm’s track, and this may be beginning soon. The official track out of the JTWC still has Ivy moving over Maewo, Ambae, Santo and Malakula and strengthening to Category 3 by the time it is west of Malakula. However, the latest Nadi forecast is noting that the decrease in structure and organisation in the last 6 hours combined with the effects of the mountains on Santo may inhibit much strengthening. In any case, the models have been very divergent and uncertain all day, so the APCEDI warnings will continue for all of Vanuatu north of Efate and all the Santa Cruz Group.

The current situation is summarised as follows:

Damaging Sustained Category 1 Cyclonic Gales and Heavy Rain
Solomons
Anuta
Tikopia

Sustained Gales and Heavy Rain approaching damaging Category 1 force in the next 2-4 hours
Solomons
Vanikolo
Utupea
Vanuatu
Banks Group (entire group)
Torres Group (entire group)
Maewo
Pentecost
Ambae

Intermittent Gales and Heavy Rain possibly approaching sustained Category 1 force over night
Solomons
Nendo
Nupani
Duffs
Swallows
Vanuatu
Torres Group (entire group)
Santo
Ambrym
Malakula

Alert for Increasing Threat of Gales and Heavy Wind tomorrow
Vanuatu
Epi
Shepherd Islands
Efate

Given the continuing Category 1 nature of the storm, damage at this time should be light to moderate and localised. It will likely include lowland tidal flooding and flash-flooding in hill areas. Some crop damage is also likely. As Ivy continues to be slow moving, this will likely result in heavy localised rainfall which could result in flash-flooding of mountain and hill areas as well as known flood prone areas. This is especially critical for the large Vanuatu Islands particularly Santo. Due to the islands’ very high relief and the slow movement of the storm, flash flooding will be a major threat throughout tonight and tomorrow especially if the the storms passes over the islands slowly or even stalls. If a central eye wall manages to emerge later tonight, and the storm strengthens to Category 2-3, damage along its path will certainly be more severe.

Anuta and Tikopia
By this time Anuta and Tikopia will have been subjected to very heavy rains, high seas and and sustained Category 1 gales for about 16 hours with another possible 5-10 hours of the same. This is likely resulting in tidal flooding of low-lying areas, crop damage and possibly some damage to unstable structures. However, the overall damage will not be anywhere as bad as with Cyclone Zoe. However, the cumulative effects of 3 major cyclones in 14 months (Zoe, Gina and now Ivy) may well be wearing down the ability of the people and their environment and its resources to sustainably cope. NDMO and Donors should endeavour to make contact with the islands as soon as the storm passes to assess both the immediate effects of Ivy and cumulative effects of the last 3 storms on the overall situation.

General Alert
Authorities in Vanuatu from the Torres Islands to Efate (including Torres and Banks Islands, Pentecost, Ambae, Santo, Malakula, Ambrym, Paama, Ulveah, Epi, Shepherd Islands and Efate including all small islands in these areas) as well as all of the Santa Cruz Group in the Eastern Solomons should be on alert, monitor the path of the storm closely throughout tonight and tomorrow and take immediate actions to protect people and property. People in mountain areas along the eastern and southern slopes of ranges should be on alert for heavy rain resulting in flash flooding. Low lying coastal areas especially along east and southern parts of large islands should also be on alert for tidal flooding.

Concerns in New Caledonia, the main islands of the Solomon Islands and the islands of Southern Vanuatu should continue to monitor this storm as it develops over the next few days. Outermost feeder bands are bringing rains and gusty winds to many of these areas as far away as Guadalcanal and the Louisades, and this will likewise increase during the day tomorrow.

APCEDI will continue monitoring the event. More detailed information about the storm can be found on

https://metoc.npmoc.navy.mil//jtwc.html
http://www.met.gov.fj/advisories.html
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator

APCEDI Alert 13P, Cyclone Ivy #7, 2004

Dear Colleagues

Alert 7, Cyclone Ivy 13P / 24 February 2004, Sydney 17:00 EDT

Cyclone Ivy continues to have an elongated central core of deep convection without forming a defined eye feature. The deepest convection is in the northeast part of this core just to the east of Anuta and Tikopia. Ivy continues to defy models both in terms of directional movement and intensification. It is maintaining a slow northwestward drift and seems to not have intensified any further this afternoon. Central pressures of around 975 hPa and the general form of Ivy are in line with a Category 1 Cyclone.

This large central convection area has now moved over Tikopia and Anuta. In Vanuatu, the Banks and Torres Groups, Maewo, Northern Pentecost, and Ambae are under the southern part of this convection, and this area is beginning to move into Santo, Ambrym and Malakula. In the Solomons all the main islands of the Santa Cruz Group are under a main feeder band, with the central area of convection nearing Vanikolo.

All day most predictive models have been showing an imminent southern shift in the storm’s track, but it has not materialised. The official track out of the JTWC still has Ivy moving over Maewo, Ambae, Santo and Malakula and strengthening to Category 3 by the time it is west of Malakula. However, there is an increasing degree of uncertainty and nonalignment in the predictive models, and the slow northwest trend seems to continue.

The current situation is summarised as follows:

Damaging Sustained Category 1 Cyclonic Gales and Heavy Rain
Solomons
Anuta
Tikopia

Sustained Gales and Heavy Rain
Solomons
Vanikolo
Vanuatu
Banks Group (entire group)
Maewo
Northern Pentecost
Ambae

Intermittent Gales and Heavy Rain
Solomons
Utupea
Nendo
Nupani
Duffs
Swallows
Vanuatu
Torres Group (entire group)
Ambae
Southern Pentecost
Santo
Ambrym
Malakula

Given the continuing Category 1 nature of the storm, damage at this time should be light to moderate and localised. It will likely include lowland tidal flooding and flash-flooding in hill areas. Some crop damage is also likely. As Ivy continues to be slow moving, this will likely result in heavy localised rainfall which could result in flash-flooding of mountain and hill areas as well as known flood prone areas. This is especially critical for the large Vanuatu Islands. Due to their very high relief and the slow movement of the storm, flash flooding will be a major threat throughout tonight and tomorrow especially if the the storms passes over the islands slowly or even stalls. If a central eye wall manages to emerge later tonight, and the storm strengthens to Category 2-3, damage along its path will certainly be more severe.

Anuta and Tikopia
By this time Anuta and Tikopia will have been subjected to very heavy rains, high seas and and sustained Category 1 gales for about 10 hours with another possible 6-12 hours of the same. This will likely result in tidal flooding of low-lying areas, some crop damage and possibly some damage to unstable structures. However, the overall damage will not be anywhere as bad as with Cyclone Zoe. However, the cumulative effects of 3 major cyclones in 14 months (Zoe, Gina and now Ivy) may well be wearing down the ability of the people and their environment and its resources to sustainably cope. NDMO and Donors should endeavour to make contact with the islands as soon as the storm passes to assess both the immediate effects of Ivy and cumulative effects of the last 3 storms on the overall situation.

General Alert
Authorities in Vanuatu from the Torres Islands to Efate (including Torres and Banks Islands, Pentecost, Ambae, Santo, Malakula, Ambrym, Paama, Ulveah, Epi, Shepherd Islands and Efate including all small islands in these areas) as well as all of the Santa Cruz Group in the Eastern Solomons should be on alert, monitor the path of the storm closely throughout tonight and tomorrow and take immediate actions to protect people and property. People in mountain areas along the eastern and southern slopes of ranges should be on alert for heavy rain resulting in flash flooding. Low lying coastal areas especially along east and southern parts of large islands should also be on alert for tidal flooding.

Concerns in New Caledonia, the main islands of the Solomon Islands and the islands of Southern Vanuatu should continue to monitor this storm as it develops over the next few days. Outermost feeder bands are already bringing rains and gusty winds to many of these areas as far away as Guadalcanal and the Louisades, and this will likewise increase during the day.

APCEDI will continue monitoring the event. More detailed information about the storm can be found on

https://metoc.npmoc.navy.mil//jtwc.html
http://www.met.gov.fj/advisories.html
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator