APCEDI Alert SP/Fj 15P Gene #4-2008: Cyclone Gene Closes in on Southern Vanuatu as Cyclone Warnings Raised for Tanna, Erromango and Anatom.

The RSMC-Nadi Tropical Cyclone Centre, the Joint Typhoon Warning Centre continue to issue guidance on Tropical Cyclone Gene that is now closing in on Southern Vanuatu.

The centre of Cyclone Gene is located 350 km east of of the Vanuatu Island of Erromango at 10 AM this morning Vanuatu time. Gene is moving to the west-southwest at 15 km/hr, and should hold its current strength as it approaches Vanuatu, but could very slightly intensify or weaken due to conditions later tomorrow.

The current forecast map shows Gene continuing to moving away from Fiji and toward Southern Vanuatu. At its current speed and forecast direction, it will reach Southern Vanuatu tonight and cross the Southern part of the country between Erromango and Anatom close to the island of Tanna.

Cyclone Gene is currently at Tropical Storm strength on the Saffir Simpson Scale. This equates to Category 1 on the Australia Scale. It will maintain its strength as it moves southwestward toward Vanuatu and should cross Southern Vanuatu at Tropical Storm strength on the Saffir Simpson Scale, which equates to Category 1 on the Australia Scale.

Cyclone Warnings have now been raised for the Southern Vanuatu including the islands of Erromango, Tanna and Anatom and all adjacent small islands.

New Caledonia has also been put on Cyclone Alert as it could take a blow from Gene once it passes through southern Vanuatu. The New Caledonian islands of Lifou, Maré and Ouvéa should be particularly watchful as the storm would likely hit them first before the main island of Grande Terre.

A gale warning that was in effect of the western half of Viti Levu, Vatulele, Kadavu, the Yasawa And the Mamanuca Group and nearby smaller islands has now been canceled, although a strong wind warning remains in force for the these western areas of Fiji.

All residents and interests in Central and Southern Vanuatu and New Caledonia should monitor the progress of the storm as it approaches and rush any cyclone preparations to completion as the Government issues advice. All residents and interests in western Fiji should continue monitor the storm carefully and follow all government advice as Cyclone Gene moves away.

Gene caused widespread minor damage across both of the main Fiji islands of Viti Levu and Vanua Levu as well as Taveuni and the Yasawa and Mamanuca Groups and many other outliers near the big islands. Many tree are down and power was temporarily cut to wide areas including Suva and Nadi. Widespread low-level crop and vegetation damage is also reported as well as superficial damage to some homes and buildings. However, the lower strength of the storm limited any severe or moderate damage. Power has been already restored in Many areas today and this evening as the effects of the storm diminish as Gene moves away from Fiji.


ALERTS AND WARNINGS

VANUATU

A CYCLONE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ERROMANGO, TANNA, ANATOM AND ALL SMALLER ADJACENT ISLANDS.
A CYCLONE WATCH AND ALERT REMAINS IN FORCE FOR CENTRAL VANUATU.

FIJI

A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR VITI LEVU, BEQA, VATULELE, KADAVU AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS AND SOUTHERN YASAWAS AND MAMANUCAS.

NEW CALEDONIA/ NOUVELLE CALEDONIE

A CYCLONE WATCH AND ALERT HAS BEEN RAISED FOR ALL NEW CALEDONIA INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF LIFOU, OUVÉA AND MARÉ.

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Special Advisory Number FIVE for Vanuatu on TC GENE ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Jan 29/2010 UTC 2008 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE GENE CENTRE [990HPA] CAT 1 NEAR 18.5S 173.8E AT 291800 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON MTSAT EIR IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION. CYCLONE MOVING WEST-SOUTHWEST ABOUT 8 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS ESTIMATED AT 45 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE. EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 90 MILES OF CENTRE IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND WITHIN 70 MILES ELSEWHERE.

ORGANISATION STEADY PAST 12 HOURS. COLD CONVECTION CONSOLIDATION IN SOUTHERN FLANK. OUTFLOW GOOD TO EAST BUT RESTRICTED ELSEWHERE. STEERING STILL INFLUENCED BY MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. CIMSS SHOWING MODERATE SHEAR OVER SYSTEM BUT DECREASING SHEAR ALONG FORECAST TRACK. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON 0.70 WRAP ON LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDING DT=3.0, MET AND PAT AGREE, THUS T3.0/3.0/S/24HRS.

ON THIS FORECAST TRACK, GENE IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE DAMAGING GALE FORCE WINDS TO ISLANDS IN SOUTHERN VANUATU, ABOUT AND SOUTH OF TANNA WITHIN THE NEXT 18 TO 24 HOURS. RAIN DEVELOPING AND BECOMING MORE FREQUENT AND HEAVY WITH SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHERN VANUATU. FLOODING INCLUDING SEA FLOODING OF LOW-LYING COASTAL AREAS. SEAS BECOMING ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH WITH DAMAGING HEAVY EASTERLY SWELLS.

FORECAST:
12HRS VALID AT 300600 UTC NEAR 18.7S 171.9E MOV W 9KT WITH 45KT CLOSE TO CENTRE.
24HRS VALID AT 301800 UTC NEAR 19.0S 170.4E MOV WSW 8KT WITH 45KT CLOSE TO CENTRE.

OUTLOOK:
36HRS VALID AT 310600 UTC NEAR 19.6S 168.9E MOV WSW 8KT WITH 45KT CLOSE TO CENTRE.
48HRS VALID AT 311800 UTC NEAR 20.4S 167.9E MOV SW 6KT WITH 35KT CLOSE TO CENTRE.

THE NEXT SPECIAL ADVISORY FOR VANUATU ON TC GENE WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 300230 UTC

VANUATU MET PLEASE ACKNOWLEDGE RECEIPT OF THIS BULLETIN.

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APCEDI will continue to monitor the progress of this system.

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator
http://www.afap.org/apcedi/

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