APCEDI ALERT Bay of Bengal (BOB-02B), Cyclone Mala, #4, 2006: Cyclone Mala comes onshore on Arakan Coast near Resort Town of Gwa

The India Department of Meteorology and the Joint Typhoon Warning Centre are continuing to provide guidance and tracking information on Cyclone Mala in the Bay of Bengal.

Cyclone Mala has come onshore on the Arakan Coast near the resort town of Gwa as a borderline Category 3/4 Cyclone on the Saffir Simpson Scale . Damage has been reported across the southern part of Rakhine (Rohinga) State and neighbouring Irriwady State. Flooding is also reported in Yangoon, Myanmar's capital. The Cyclone is currently situated over the Lower Irriwady Basin which is experiencing very heavy rains.

Models now show the Cyclone raining out over Myanmar and Thailand with heavy rain expected to continue over much of South-Central Burma, Lower Irriwady Basin and into Northern Thailand.

The Government of Thailand has issued a storm alert for the North and the Central Plains for a major rain event. Chiang Rai, Chiang Mai, Lampang, Tak, Uthai Thani and Kanchanaburi should be prepared for heavy downpours.

The Hindu Newspaper has the only definitive news article on damage at the moment.

Cyclone batters Myanmar's west coast, damaging buildings
Yangon, April 29 (AP): A cyclone packing winds up to 240 kilometers per hour (150 miles per hour) battered Myanmar's west coast on Saturday, causing some damage at beach resorts but resulting in no injuries, officials said.

Cyclone Mala passed through Gwa, a resort 190 kilometers (120 miles) northwest of Yangon, an official from the meteorological department said.

The cyclone produced massive waves and flooding, knocked down trees and forces some visitors to evacuate to higher ground, the official, who spoke on condition anonymity, said.

The storm on Friday damaged several houses on nearby Haingyi island and forced South Korea's Daewoo International Corp. to abandon oil platforms in northern Rakhine state, a Daewoo employee said.

``Several houses were destroyed and many houses lost their roofs in the storm, which hit Haingyi island with a wind speed of more than 120 kilometers (75 miles) per hour,'' said a senior meteorological department officer, who also requested anonymity as is customary among Myanmar officials.

Haingyi island is 200 kilometers (125 miles) southwest of Yangon, at the tip of the southern delta region.

There were also storm warnings out for coastal areas in southern Bangladesh, where authorities expected it to hit late Saturday.

Weather officials in Myanmar said that the storm was expected to intensify in the delta and western Rakhine state Saturday, and that precautionary measures were being taken.

In 2004, the worst cyclone to hit the area in 30 years battered Rakhine state, leaving 140 people dead or missing and thousands homeless.

Cyclones _ known as typhoons in much of East Asia and hurricanes in the Western hemisphere _ are large-scale rotating storms that generate high winds and typically form at sea before moving inland.

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APCEDI will continue to monitor the progress of Cyclone Mala as it moves toward the Arakan Coast.

While APCEDI does not normally monitor cyclones in the Bay of Bengal, given AFAP's tsunami relief effort and that of many agencies in the region, APCEDI will continue to bring reports from this region, as warranted, for the next year or longer if needed.

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator
http://www.afap.org/apcedi/

To donate to AFAP's Disaster Preparedness, Relief and Rehabilitation Programs in Asia and the Pacific, go to http://www.afap.org and click on the "Donate On-Line" icon in the top right-hand corner.

APCEDI ALERT Bay of Bengal (BOB-02B), Cyclone Mala, #3, 2006: Cyclone Mala coming on-shore on Myanmar's Arakan Coast

The India Department of Meteorology and the Joint Typhoon Warning Centre are continuing to provide guidance and tracking information on Cyclone Mala in the Bay of Bengal.

Cyclone Mala is located off Mayanmar's Arakan Coast about 100 km southwest of Sandoway (Sandway). It increased in intensity overnight to a Category 4 Super Cyclone on the Saffir Simpson Scale. It is maintaining this strength and could possibly increase in intensity later today as it moves onshore.

Throughout the night the track of the cyclone has been further south than previously forecasted, so the main threat has shifted to the southern part of the Arakan Coast around the city of Sandoway (Sandway). Cyclone Mala is now the most intense cyclone in the Bay of Bengal since the 1999 Orissa Super Cyclone. The potential effects of a major Category 4 storm on the Arakan Coast could be devastating. Indian news media are covering the storm closely.

On the current forecast track, Cyclone Mala will slowly move onshore over Myanmar's southern Arakan Coast later today. This has the potential to cause extensive flooding in the Irriwady Basin as well as severe flash flooding in the Arakan Mountains and the coastal rivers of Rakine (Rohinga) State. The main port city of Sandoway (Sandway) is now at high risk and precautions should be in place. However, given the relatively closed nature of the situation in Myanmar, it is unknown what precautions are being put into place for this potentially severe emergency.

The Government of Thailand has issued a storm alert for the North and the Central Plains for a major rain event. Chiang Rai, Chiang Mai, Lampang, Tak, Uthai Thani and Kanchanaburi should be prepared for heavy downpours.

Cyclone Mala is now moving away from the Andaman Islands. However, northern regions continue to experience phenomenal seas and gales. The small Myanmar outliers of Coco and Preparis Islands would likewise be experiencing similar conditions.

All interests in Myanmar, Bangladesh, Thailand and the Andaman Islands should closely monitor the status of this severe cyclone. Major evacuations of low lying areas along the Arakan Coast will likely be needed imminently.

INDIAN DEPARTMENT OF METEOROLOGY
http://www.imd.gov.in/

VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM “MALA” ADVISORY NO. TWENTY SEVEN ISSUED AT 2100 UTC OF 28TH APRIL 2006 BASED ON 1800 UTC CHARTS OF 28TH APRIL 2006. THE VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM OVER EAST-CENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL MOVED SLIGHTLY NORTHEASTWARDS AND LAY CENTERED AT 1800 UTC NEAR LAT. 16.0 N AND LONG. 93.0 E ABOUT 500 KM NORTH OF PORTBLAIR. THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO INTENSIFY FURTHER AND MOVE IN A NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION TOWARDS ARAKAN COAST WITH A POSSIBLE LANDFALL SOUTH OF SANDWAY(48080) ARROUND 0600 UTC OF 29 APRIL. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLEAR EYE AND ASSOCIATED BANDING FEATURES. CURRENT INTENSITY IS T5.5 RPT T5.5. ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE 954 hPa. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS 100-110 KT GUSTING TO 120 KT AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE. STATE OF SEA WILL BE PHENOMENAL.

FORECAST INTENSITY T6.0 AFTER 12 HOURS.
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APCEDI will continue to monitor the progress of Cyclone Mala as it moves toward the Arakan Coast.

While APCEDI does not normally monitor cyclones in the Bay of Bengal, given AFAP's tsunami relief effort and that of many agencies in the region, APCEDI will continue to bring reports from this region, as warranted, for the next year or longer if needed.

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator
http://www.afap.org/apcedi/

To donate to AFAP's Disaster Preparedness, Relief and Rehabilitation Programs in Asia and the Pacific, go to http://www.afap.org and click on the "Donate On-Line" icon in the top right-hand corner.

APCEDI ALERT Bay of Bengal (BOB-02B), Cyclone Mala, #2, 2006: Cyclone Mala bears down on Myanmar's Arakan Coast

The India Department of Meteorology and the Joint Typhoon Warning Centre are continuing to provide guidance and tracking information on Cyclone Mala in the Bay of Bengal.

Cyclone Mala is located approximately 300 km northwest of Port Blair in the Andamans. It continues to strengthen rapidly and is now a strong Category 3 cyclone on the Saffir Simpson Scale. It could attain Category 4 Super Cyclone status later today.

As the cyclone intensifies, the threat to the Myanmar's Arakan coast is increasing. This is now the most intense cyclone in the Bay of Bengal since the 1999 Orissa Super Cyclone. The potential effects of a major Category 3-4 storm on the Arakan Coast could be devastating. Indian news media are covering the storm closely.

On the current forecast track, Cyclone Mala will pass to the northwest of the Andaman Islands toward Myanmar's Arakan Coast. It is forecast to pass just south of the main port city of Akyab (Sittwe), the capital of Rakine (Rohinga) State. However, any change in track toward the north could position the cyclone further toward Bangladesh. It should be noted that it is nearly 15 years to the date (April 29, 1991) that a cyclone devastated the Chittagong Region of Bangladesh.

Should the Cyclone move into the Arakan Coast, it could end up causing extensive flooding in the Irriwady Basin as well as severe flash flooding in the Arakan Mountains and the coastal rivers of Rakine (Rohinga) State. The main city of Akyab (Sittwe) is now at high risk and precautions should be in place. However, given the relatively closed nature of the situation in Myanmar, it is unknown what precautions are being put into place for this potentially severe emergency.

The Andaman Islands are currently experiencing phenomenal seas and gales conditions particularly in the northern part of the group. The small Myanmar outliers of Coco and Preparis Islands would likewise be experiencing similar conditions. India has raised the signal to number IX from Port Blair northward. This indicates high danger.

All interests in Myanmar, Bangladesh and the Andaman Islands should closely monitor the status of this severe cyclone. Major evacuations of low lying areas along the Arakan Coast will likely be needed imminently.

INDIAN DEPARTMENT OF METEOROLOGY
http://www.imd.gov.in/

No. BOB/1/2006/ 24
Dated 28th April 2006

Subject: Very Severe Cyclonic Storm over east-central Bay of Bengal

The Very Severe Cyclonic Storm “MALA” over east-central Bay of Bengal moved slightly northeastwards and lay centered at 0530 hrs. IST near Lat.14.00 N and Long. 91.00 E, about 300 km northwest of Port Blair. The system is likely to intensify further and move slowly in a north-northeasterly direction.

The numerical models as well as synoptic patterns continue to suggest that the system may intensify further and track in a north-northeasterly direction towards Arakan coast with a possible landfall on 30th April.

Under its influence, scattered heavy to very heavy rainfall is likely over Andaman Islands during next 24 hours. Gale force winds reaching 100-120 kmph also likely over Andaman Islands during the same period.

State of the sea will be phenomenal along and off Andaman coast. Fishermen are advised not to venture into the Sea during the same period.

Damage Expected :-Extensive damage to Kutcha houses. Minor damage to power and communication lines due to uprooting of large avenue trees.

Action Suggested :-Total suspension of fishing operations. Coastal hutment dwellers to be moved to safer places. People in affected areas to remain indoors.
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APCEDI will continue to monitor the progress of Cyclone Mala as it moves toward the Arakan Coast.

While APCEDI does not normally monitor cyclones in the Bay of Bengal, given AFAP's tsunami relief effort and that of many agencies in the region, APCEDI will continue to bring reports from this region, as warranted, for the next year or longer if needed.

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator
http://www.afap.org/apcedi/

To donate to AFAP's Disaster Preparedness, Relief and Rehabilitation Programs in Asia and the Pacific, go to http://www.afap.org and click on the "Donate On-Line" icon in the top right-hand corner.

APCEDI ALERT Bay of Bengal (BOB-02B), Cyclone Mala, #1, 2006: Cyclone Mala Threatens Andamans and Arakan Coast

Cyclone Mala formed in the Bay of Bengal, west of the main Andaman Islands, two days ago. It has steadily increased in strength and is now a Category 2 on the Saffir Simpson Scale and steadily increasing in strength.

The India Department of Meteorology and the Joint Typhoon Warning Centre are continuing to provide guidance and tracking information.

On the current forecast track, Cyclone Mala will pass to the northwest of the Andaman Islands toward Myanmar's Arakan Coast. However, any change in track toward the north could rise the cyclone further toward Bangladesh. It should be noted that it is nearly 15 years to the date (April 29, 1991) that a cyclone devastated the Chittagong Region of Bangladesh.

Should the Cyclone move into the Arakan Coast, it could end up causing extensive flooding in the Irriwady Basin as well as severe flash flooding of coastal rivers of Rakine (Rohinga) State. The main city of Akyab (Sittwe) is also at risk.

All interests in Myanmar, Bangladesh and the Andaman Islands should closely monitor the status of this severe cyclone. Evacuation of low lying areas along the Arakan Coast may be needed in the next 24 hours.

INDIAN DEPARTMENT OF METEOROLOGY
http://www.imd.gov.in/

No. BOB/1/2006/ 21
Dated 27th April 2006

Subject: Very Severe Cyclonic Storm over southeast and adjoining east-central Bay of Bengal

The Severe Cyclonic Storm “MALA” over southeast and adjoining east-central Bay of Bengal remained practically stationary and lay centered at 2030 hrs. IST near Lat.13.00 N and Long. 90.50 E, about 270 km northwest of Port Blair. The system is likely to intensify further and move slowly in a north-northeasterly direction.

The numerical models as well as synoptic patterns continue to suggest that the system may intensify further and track in a north-northeasterly direction towards Arakan coast with a possible landfall on 30th April.

Under its influence, scattered heavy to very heavy rainfall is likely over Andaman Islands during next 24 hours. Gale force winds reaching 100-120 kmph also likely over Andaman Islands during the same period.

State of the sea will be very high to phenomenal along and off Andaman coast. Fishermen are advised not to venture into the Sea during the same period.

Damage Expected :- Extensive damage to Kutcha houses. Minor damage to power and communication lines due to uprooting of large avenue trees.

Action Suggested :-Total suspension of fishing operations. Coastal hutment dwellers to be moved to safer places. People in affected areas to remain indoors.

APCEDI will continue to monitor the progress of Cyclone Mala as it moves toward the Arakan Coast.

While APCEDI does not normally monitor cyclones in the Bay of Bengal, given AFAP's tsunami relief effort and that of many agencies in the region, APCEDI will continue to bring reports from this region, as warranted, for the next year or longer if needed.

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator
http://www.afap.org/apcedi/

To donate to AFAP's Disaster Preparedness, Relief and Rehabilitation Programs in Asia and the Pacific, go to http://www.afap.org and click on the "Donate On-Line" icon in the top right-hand corner.

APCEDI Alert SP/PNG Cyclone Monica #1-2006: Cyclone Monica forms off Central and Milne Bay Provinces, PNG

The Brisbane Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre and the Joint Typhoon Warning Centre are issuing guidance on Cyclone Monica which formed in the North Coral Sea earlier today.

Cyclone Monica is approximately 200 km south of Alotau or 320 km southeast of Port Moresby, PNG moving south-southwestward at 24 km/hour. It is currently at Tropical Storm Strength and is expected to slowly intensify over the next 24 hours. Monica is expected to turn more to the west later tonight and head toward the Queensland Coast.

Gusty showers with gales are currently moving through the area to the east of Kupiano and affecting the towns of Tutubu, Abau, Robinson River, Magarida, Gadaisu, Suau and all around the Samurai area including Sariba, Basilaki and Kwalaiwa Islands including the Daloloia Group. Heavy rain showers and gales will continue over much of this area for the next 12 hours until the storm system clears the area. However any damage is likely to be light.

All interests in the above named areas should monitor this storm closely and follow any instructions issued by authorities as the storm moves away.

As Cyclone Monica is now headed for Queensland, APCEDI will only issue further bulletins if it changes course and threatens any Pacific Islands.


From the Brisbane Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

IDQP0005
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Queensland Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this message.

PRIORITY
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 1
Issued by the Bureau of Meteorology, Brisbane
Issued at 10:45am on Monday the 17th of April 2006

A Cyclone WATCH has been declared for coastal and island communities between Torres Strait and Cape Melville, and including the west coast of Cape York Peninsula north of Mapoon.

At 10 am EST, Tropical Cyclone Monica, Category 1, was centred near latitude 12.4 south longitude 150.0 east, which is 620 km kilometres northeast of Cooktown and 710 km east of Lockhart River. The cyclone is moving southwest at about 13 km/h.

Tropical Cyclone Monica is expected to intensify and adopt a general westward track during the next two days and be near the east coast of Cape York Peninsula during Wednesday morning.

People between Torres Strait and Cape Melville and far northern Cape York Peninsula should consider what action they will need to take if the cyclone threat increases and listen to the next advice at 5pm EST today. If you are unsure about actions to be taken, information is available from your local government or local State Emergency Service.
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From the Joint Typhoon Warning Centre

170300Z POSITION NEAR 12.5S 149.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 23P (MONICA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 240 NM SOUTHEAST OF PORT MORESBY, PAPUA NEW GUINEA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND MULTIPLE MICROWAVE PASSES INDICATE THAT THE CONVECTION IS WRAPPING INTO THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. A LOW TO MID LEVEL STEERING RIDGE WILL CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO SHIFT TO THE WEST AFTER TAU 12 AND AN OFFSET UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE WILL PROVIDE FAVOR- ABLE DIVERGENCE ALOFT. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 162021ZAPR2006 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPS21 PGTW 162030). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 170000Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 171500Z AND 180300Z.//
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APCEDI will continue to monitor the progress of this system.

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator
http://www.afap.org/apcedi/

To donate to AFAP's Disaster Preparedness, Relief and Rehabilitation Programs in Asia and the Pacific, go to http://www.afap.org and click on the "Donate On-Line" icon in the top right-hand corner.

To sign up for AFAP's free APCEDI email service, please go to http://www.afap.org/apcedi/ and register your email address.