APCEDI Alert SP/Fj 15P Gene #5-2008: Cyclone Gene Strengthens as it approaches Southern Vanuatu; Cyclone Warning for Tanna, Erromango and Anatom

The RSMC-Nadi Tropical Cyclone Centre, the Joint Typhoon Warning Centre continue to issue guidance on Tropical Cyclone Gene that is now approaching Southern Vanuatu.

The centre of Cyclone Gene is located 290 km east of of the Vanuatu Island of Erromango at 8 PM this evening Vanuatu time. Gene has slowed its forward speed in the last few hours and is now moving to the southwest at 6 km/hr. Cyclone Gene has strengthened more than expected this afternoon and forecasts call for more intensification as it approaches Southern Vanuatu.

The current forecast map shows Gene continuing to move toward the southernmost islands of Vanuatu. At its current speed and forecast direction, it will reach Southern Vanuatu later tomorrow morning and pass between the southernmost Vanuatu islands of Tanna and Anatom.

Cyclone Gene is currently at Category 1 strength on the Saffir Simpson Scale. This equates to a minimal Category 3 on the Australia Scale. It is now forecast to increase in strength as it moves southwestward toward Vanuatu and should pass the southernmost Vanuatu islands at Category 1-2 strength on the Saffir Simpson Scale, which equates to Category 3 on the Australia Scale.

Cyclone Warnings remain in place for Southern Vanuatu including the islands of Erromango, Tanna and Anatom and all adjacent small islands.

New Caledonia has also been put on Cyclone Alert as it could take a blow from Gene once it passes through southern Vanuatu. The New Caledonian islands of Lifou, Maré and Ouvéa should be particularly watchful as the storm would likely hit them first before the main island of Grande Terre.

All residents and interests in Southern Vanuatu and New Caledonia should monitor the progress of the storm as it approaches and rush any cyclone preparations to completion as the Government issues advice. As Cyclone Gene increases in strength it is becoming a more dangerous storm. Considerable damage could be expected on any islands near to where the centre of the storm passes.

EFFECTS OF CYLCONE GENE ON FIJI
Gene caused widespread minor damage across both of the main Fiji islands of Viti Levu and Vanua Levu as well as Taveuni and the Yasawa and Mamanuca Groups and many other outliers near the big islands. Many trees were brought down, and power was temporarily cut to wide areas including Suva and Nadi. Widespread low-level crop and vegetation damage is also reported as well as superficial damage to some homes and buildings. However, the lower strength of the storm limited more severe wind damage. Power has been already restored in many areas. River flooding from continuing rains associated with the system has destroyed some homes in both Navua and Nadi, and in a few other areas. Two people were killed as an indirect result of Cyclone Gene from house fires while using candles to light their homes when the power went out. FijiLive has some good e-coverage.


ALERTS AND WARNINGS

VANUATU

A CYCLONE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ERROMANGO, TANNA, ANATOM AND ALL SMALLER ADJACENT ISLANDS INCLUDING ANIWA AND FUTUNA.
A CYCLONE WATCH AND ALERT REMAINS IN FORCE FOR CENTRAL VANUATU.

FIJI

A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR VITI LEVU, BEQA, VATULELE, KADAVU AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS AND SOUTHERN YASAWAS AND MAMANUCAS.

NEW CALEDONIA/ NOUVELLE CALEDONIE

A CYCLONE WATCH AND ALERT HAS BEEN RAISED FOR ALL NEW CALEDONIA INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF LIFOU, OUVÉA AND MARÉ.

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From the RSMC-Nadi Tropical Cyclone Centre

Vanuatu Advisory

Special Advisory Number SEVEN for Vanuatu on TC GENE ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Jan 30/0851 UTC 2008 UTC.

SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE GENE CENTRE [970HPA] CAT 3 NEAR 18.6S 173.2E AT 300600 UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED ON MTSAT EIR AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHWEST ABOUT 3 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS ESTIMATED AT 65 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE. EXPECT WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 20 MILES OF CENTRE. EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 40 MILES OF CENTRE. EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 120 MILES OF CENTRE IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND WITHIN 100 MILES ELSEWHERE.

COLD TOPS OVER LLCC HAS ENABLED INTENSIFICATION WITHIN THE LAST SIX HOURS. COOLING TO SOUTHEAST OF LLCC. OUTFLOW GOOD TO EAST BUT RESTRICTED ELSEWHERE. STEERING STILL INFLUENCED BY MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH WHICH IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO ALLOW POLEWARD MOVEMENT IN NEXT 48HRS. CIMSS SHOWING MODERATE SHEAR OVER SYSTEM BUT DECREASING SHEAR ALONG FORECAST TRACK. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON MET=4.5 AND PT=4.5, THUS T4.5/4.5/D1.0/24HRS. CONSENSUS TAKES THE CYCLONE WEST-SOUTHWEST IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS BEFORE TURNING SOUTH.

ON ITS PROJECTED TRACK, SEVERE TC GENE IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH OR CLOSE TO ISLANDS ABOUT AND SOUTH OF TANNA. EXPECT GALE FORCE WINDS TO DEVELOP WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS SOUTH OF ERROMANGO. WINDS INCREASING TO VERY DESTRUCTIVE HURRICANE FORCE WINDS AND DESTRUCTIVE STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS SOUTH OF TANNA.

OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND A FEW SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHERN VANUATU INCREASING TO FREQUENT AND HEAVY RAIN TOMORROW NIGHT. FLOODING INCLUDING SEA FLOODING OF LOW-LYING COASTAL AREAS. SEAS BECOMING ROUGH TO HIGH WITH DAMAGING HEAVY EASTERLY SWELLS.

FORECAST:
12HRS VALID AT 301800 UTC NEAR 19.3S 171.7E MOV WSW 9KT WITH 70KT CLOSE TO CENTRE.
24HRS VALID AT 310600 UTC NEAR 20.0S 170.1E MOV WSW 6KT WITH 85KT CLOSE TO CENTRE.

OUTLOOK:
36HRS VALID AT 311800 UTC NEAR 20.7S 169.1E MOV SW 7KT WITH 90KT CLOSE TO CENTRE.
48HRS VALID AT 010600 UTC NEAR 21.5S 168.2E MOV SSW 5KT WITH 90KT CLOSE TO CENTRE.

THE NEXT SPECIAL ADVISORY FOR VANUATU ON SEVERE TC GENE WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 301430 UTC.

VANUATU MET PLEASE ACKNOWLEDGE RECEIPT OF THIS BULLETIN.

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APCEDI will continue to monitor the progress of this system.

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator
http://www.afap.org/apcedi/

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