APCEDI Alert SP/Fj 15P Gene #6-2008: Cyclone Gene Begins to Pound Southern Vanuatu; Threatens Serious Damage for Tanna, Erromango and Anatom

The RSMC-Nadi Tropical Cyclone Centre, the Joint Typhoon Warning Centre continue to issue guidance on Tropical Cyclone Gene that is now beginning to impact on Southern Vanuatu.

The centre of Cyclone Gene is located 120 km east of of the Vanuatu island of Tanna at 8 PM this evening Vanuatu time with the centre of the storm approaching the small island of Futuna east of Tanna. Gene is maintaining a slow forward speed to the southwest at 9 km/hr. Cyclone Gene continues to intensify and has recently formed a clear eye feature about 80 km east of Futuna.

The current forecast map shows Gene beginning its onslaught on the southernmost islands of Vanuatu. At its current speed and forecast direction, Gene's centre pass over or near to the island of Futuna and then turn more southerly and pass over or near to the island of Anatom, Vanuatu's southern-most island. The exact passage of the Cyclone and the exact timing of recurvature will depend on which islands get direct hits and which get the most damage.

Cyclone Gene is currently at Category 2 strength on the Saffir Simpson Scale. This equates to a Category 3 on the Australia Scale. It is now forecast to slightly increase in strength as it moves southwestward across Vanuatu and should pass the southernmost Vanuatu islands at Category 2 strength on the Saffir Simpson Scale, which equates to Category 3 on the Australia Scale.

Cyclone Warnings remain in place for all of Tafea Province of Southern Vanuatu including the islands of Erromango, Tanna, Anatom, Aniwa and Futuna and all adjacent small islands. A Cyclone warning/ watch also is in place for Shefa Province of Central Vanuatu.

Here is an island by island breakdown for Tafea Province.

Futuna, population 400; Futuna, Vanuatu's easternmost island, tonight looks set to be the first island directly in harm's way and could receive a direct hit by the eyewall of a slow moving cyclone in the next 6 hours. Should this occur, damage will likely be severe and widespread. News reports are indicating that nearly all people are moving to shelters. Given the rough, steep volcanic terrain, flash flooding off the volcano slopes could be severe. Seas will be phenomenal and likely to cause severe coastal erosion and tidal flooding.

Anatom (Anietyum), population 800; After Futuna, Anatom, Vanuatu's southernmost island, also looks set to possibly receive a direct hit in 8-12 hours. Should this occur, damage will likely be severe and widespread. News reports are indicating people are moving to shelters nearly everywhere. Given the rough, steep volcanic terrain, flash flooding off the volcano slopes could be severe. Seas will be phenomenal and likely to cause severe coastal erosion and tidal flooding.

Tanna, population 26,000; Tanna, the island with the Province's largest population, looks like it will miss a direct hit at this time, but the centre of the storm could pass quite close still causing considerable widespread and severe damage. News reports are indicating people are moving to shelters in vulnerable areas. Given the rough, steep volcanic terrain, flash flooding off the volcano slopes could be severe. Seas will be phenomenal and likely to cause severe coastal erosion and tidal flooding. This assessment also applies to the small island of Aniwa, population 400, which lies off the northeast coast of Tanna.

Erromango, population 1,500; the northernmost island will likely miss the full brunt of the Cyclone Gene but will still receive destructive gale force winds and very rough seas and heavy rains. Damage will likely be moderate and widespread. News reports are indicating people are moving to shelters in vulnerable areas. Given the rough, steep volcanic terrain, flash flooding off the volcano slopes could be severe. Seas will be phenomenal and likely to cause severe coastal erosion and tidal flooding.

New Caledonia has also been put on Cyclone Alert as it could take a blow from Gene once it passes through southern Vanuatu. The New Caledonian islands of Lifou, Maré and Ouvéa should be particularly watchful as the storm would likely hit them first before the main island of Grande Terre. The effect on New Caledonia will depend considerably on the timing and degree of recurvature of the storm's path to the south.

All residents and interests in Southern Vanuatu and New Caledonia should monitor the progress of the storm as it passes over and follow all cyclone advice that the Government issues. As Cyclone Gene increases in strength it is increasingly becoming a more dangerous storm. Considerable widespread and severe damage could be expected on any islands near to where the centre of the storm passes.

EFFECTS OF CYLCONE GENE ON FIJI
Gene caused widespread minor to moderate damage across both of the main Fiji islands of Viti Levu and Vanua Levu as well as Taveuni and the Yasawa and Mamanuca Groups and many other outliers near the big islands. Many trees were brought down, and power was temporarily cut to wide areas including Suva and Nadi. Widespread low-level crop and vegetation damage is also reported as well as superficial damage to some homes and buildings. However, the lower strength of the storm limited more severe wind damage. Power has been already restored in many areas. River flooding from continuing rains associated with the system has destroyed some homes in both Navua and Nadi, and in a few other areas. Two people were killed as an indirect result of Cyclone Gene from house fires while using candles to light their homes when the power went out. FijiLive has some good e-coverage.


ALERTS AND WARNINGS

VANUATU

A CYCLONE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR TAFEA PROVINCE INCLUDING ERROMANGO, TANNA, ANATOM, ANIWA AND FUTUNA.
A CYCLONE WARNING?WATCH AND ALERT REMAINS IN FORCE FOR CENTRAL VANUATU.

FIJI

A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR VITI LEVU, BEQA, VATULELE, KADAVU AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS AND SOUTHERN YASAWAS AND MAMANUCAS.

NEW CALEDONIA/ NOUVELLE CALEDONIE

A CYCLONE WATCH AND ALERT HAS BEEN RAISED FOR ALL NEW CALEDONIA INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF LIFOU, OUVÉA AND MARÉ.

____________________

From the RSMC-Nadi Tropical Cyclone Centre

Vanuatu Advisory

Special Advisory Number ELEVEN for Vanuatu on TC GENE ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Jan 31/0820 UTC 2008 UTC.

SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE GENE CENTRE [955HPA] CAT 3 NEAR 19.4S 171.2E AT 310600 UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED ON MTSAT EIR/VIS IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHWEST ABOUT 5 KNOTS BUT EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TURN FURTHER TOWARDS THE SOUTH WITHIN THE NEXT 18 HRS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS ESTIMATED AT 80 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE INCREASING TO 90 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. EXPECT WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 35 MILES OF CENTRE. EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 55 MILES OF CENTRE. EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 160 MILES OF CENTRE IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND WITHIN 110 MILES OF CENTRE ELSEWHERE.

ORGANISATION REMAINS GOOD PAST 6 HOURS WITH COLD CONVECTIVE TOPS PERSISTING OVER LLCC. OUTFLOW GOOD TO EAST. STEERING STILL INFLUENCED BY MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH WHICH IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO ALLOW POLEWARD MOVEMENT IN NEXT 18 HRS. CIMSS SHOWS MODERATE SHEAR OVER SYSTEM AS WELL AS ALONG FORECAST TRACK. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON EMBD
CENTRE PATTERN WITHIN WHITE DT=5.0,MET=5.0 AND PT=4.5, THUS T5.0/5.0/D0.5/24HRS. THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS FURTHER INTENSIFIES THE CYCLONE AND GRADUALLY TURNS IT TOWARDS THE SOUTH IN THE NEXT 18 HOURS.

ON ITS PROJECTED TRACK, SEVERE TC GENE CENTRE IS EXPECTED TO PASS JUST SOUTH OF TANNA WITHIN THE NEXT 18 HOURS. EXPECT DAMAGING GALE FORCE WINDS TO THE SOUTH OF VILA. BETWEEN TANNA AND ANEITYUM WINDS INCREASING TO DESTRUCTIVE STORM FORCE IN THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS AND THEN VERY DESTRUCTIVE HURRICANE FORCE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS.

RAIN BECOMING FREQUENT AND HEAVY RAIN WITH SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. FLOODING INCLUDING SEA FLOODING OF LOW-LYING COASTAL AREAS. VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITH DAMAGING HEAVY SWELLS.

FORECAST:
12HRS VALID AT 311800 UTC NEAR 19.7S 170.3E MOV SW 3KT WITH 85KT CLOSE TO CENTRE.
24HRS VALID AT 010600 UTC NEAR 20.3S 169.9E MOV SSW 3KT WITH 90KT CLOSE TO CENTRE.

OUTLOOK:
36HRS VALID AT 011800 UTC NEAR 21.0S 169.7E MOV S 5KT WITH 90KT CLOSE TO CENTRE.
48HRS VALID AT 020600 UTC NEAR 21.9S 169.5E MOV S 5KT WITH 80KT CLOSE TO CENTRE.

THE NEXT SPECIAL ADVISORY FOR VANUATU ON SEVERE TC GENE WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 311430 UTC.

VANUATU MET PLEASE ACKNOWLEDGE RECEIPT OF THIS BULLETIN.

______________________________________

From the Vanuatu Meteorological Service

Vanuatu Advisory
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Tropical cyclone Warning Number 6 for Tafea Province

This is Tropical cyclone warning number 6 issued by the Vanuatu Meteorological Services at 6pm, local time the 31st of January 2008 for the provinces of Shefa and Tafea.

At 5:00pm local time, Tropical cyclone Gene was relocated at 19.2 degrees South and 171.3 degrees East. This location places Gene at the top left corner of Square letter K, Number 9 (K, 9) of the Vanuatu tropical cyclone tracking map. This is about 200KM southeast of Erromango Island and 100 KM northeast of Futuna Island. TC Gene has moved west-southwest at 07 KM/HR (04 Knots) in the past 12 hours.

The central pressure of the system is estimated at 955hPa. Winds close to the centre estimated at 145 KM/HR (80 Knots). Based on its forecast track, TC Gene is forecast to be at Square Letter I, Number 9 (I, 9) of the Tropical Cyclone Tracking Map within the next 6 to 12 hours, and at square letter I, number 10 (I, 10) within the next 12 to 18 hours.

Damaging Storm Force Winds of 90 to 110 KM/HR (50 to 60 knots) will affect Futuna Island within the next 6 to 12 hours. Winds over Tafea will increase to destructive hurricane force winds of 150 KM/HR (80 knots) within the next 12 to 18 hours.

Strong gusty winds of 45 KM/HR (25 knots) will likely affect Shefa Province later tonight.

The sea is very rough in the affected areas with heavy swells. People, including sea going vessels are strongly advice not to go out to sea until the system moves out of the area. Heavy rainfall and flooding, including coastal flooding is expected over the southern islands. Communities and individuals over the southern islands living near or along rivers banks, along coastal areas, on flat plains or in areas prone to land slides are advised to seek safe shelter.

The Vanuatu Meteorological Service will issue the next warning on TC Gene at 9:00pm. People over Tafea province are advised to listen to Radio Vanuatu for the latest information on this system.
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre
Telephone: (678) 22932

*
NM – Nautical Miles
*
KM – Kilometres
*
M – Miles
*
KM/HR – Kilometre per hour
*
K – Knots
*
hPa - hectoPascal

_________________________________
APCEDI will continue to monitor the progress of this system.

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator
http://www.afap.org/apcedi/

To donate to AFAP's Disaster Preparedness, Relief and Rehabilitation Programs in Asia and the Pacific, go to http://www.afap.org and click on the "Donate On-Line" icon in the top right-hand corner.

To sign up for AFAP's free APCEDI email service, please go to http://www.afap.org/apcedi/ and register your email address.