APCEDI Alert SP/PNG Cyclone Kate #3-2006: Cyclone Kate Dissipates south of Kupiano, Central Province, PNG

The Brisbane Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre and the Joint Typhoon Warning Centre have discontinued guidance on Cyclone Kate which dissipated earlier today.

The remnants of Cyclone Kate are located approximately 250 km southeast of Port Moresby, Central Province, PNG and continue lingering or slowly moving in the same general area.

Cyclone Kate has dissipated today. However, the system will be closely monitored over the next few days for signs of regeneration. Intermittent heavy rain showers with gusty winds are still continuing along the southeast PNG coast from Kupiano eastwards, affecting the towns of Tutubu, Abau, Robinson River, Magarida, Gadaisu, Suau and all around the Samurai area including Sariba, Basilaki and Kwalaiwa Islands including the Daloloia Group. Intermittent heavy rain showers with gusty winds are also being experienced in sections of the Louisades. This will continue throughout the next day or so and could pick up again should the system re-intensify. Seas in the area will be rough.

All interests in the above named areas as well as the remainder of the Eastern half of Central Province and all of Milne Bay Province, especially the Alotau and Samari areas and the Louisades, should monitor the situation and watch for any signs of regeneration.

From the Joint Typhoon Warning Centre

REMARKS:
240900Z POSITION NEAR 11.2S 145.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 13P (KATE) HAS RAPIDLY WEAKENED AND DISSIPATED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS IN AN UNFAVORABLE OUTFLOW AND HIGHER THAN EXPECTED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED
FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 240600Z IS 10 FEET.//
________________________

APCEDI will continue to monitor the progress of this system.

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator
http://www.afap.org/apcedi/

To donate to AFAP's Disaster Preparedness, Relief and Rehabilitation Programs in Asia and the Pacific, go to http://www.afap.org and click on the "Donate On-Line" icon in the top right-hand corner.

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APCEDI Alert SP/PNG Cyclone Kate #2-2006: Cyclone Kate Weakens south of Kupiano, Central Province, PNG

The Brisbane Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre and the Joint Typhoon Warning Centre continue to issue guidance on Cyclone Kate which formed in the North Coral Sea earlier today.

Cyclone Kate is approximately 200 km south of Kupiano, eastern Central Province, PNG and is moving east-southeast at 11 km/hour.

Cyclone Kate has weakened overnight to Tropical Storm Strength. However, it is expected to slowly intensify over the next 24 hours, and it may regain Category 1 intensity on the Saffir Simpson Scale tomorrow. Models are coming into better agreement to turn the system to the southeast and eventually the south. This steers the system farther from Milne Bay. However, due to Cyclone Kate's proximity to the areas, there is still a threat to this part of Papua New Guinea. Intermittent heavy rain showers with gales are still continuing along the southeast PNG coast from Kupiano eastwards, affecting the towns of Tutubu, Abau, Robinson River, Magarida, Gadaisu, Suau and all around the Samurai area including Sariba, Basilaki and Kwalaiwa Islands including the Daloloia Group. Intermittent heavy rain showers and gales are also being experienced in sections of the Louisades. This will continue throughout the day as the system is slow moving.

All interests in the above named areas as well as the remainder of the Eastern half of Central Province and all of Milne Bay Province, especially the Alotau and Samari areas and the Louisades, should monitor this storm closely and follow any instructions issued by authorities as the storm lingers off the coast.

From the Joint Typhoon Warning Centre

REMARKS:
232100Z POSITION NEAR 11.9S 147.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 13P (KATE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 335 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 13P IS BEING STEERED BY NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGING TO THE NORTH. AFTER THE DEPARTURE OF A MERIDIONAL TROUGH TO THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM, A RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE CORAL SEA AND BEGIN TO STEER THE STORM ON A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK. A MODERATE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WILL KEEP TC 13P AS A MODERATE STRENGTH STORM OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 231800Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 240900Z AND 242100Z.//
________________________

APCEDI will continue to monitor the progress of this system.

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator
http://www.afap.org/apcedi/

To donate to AFAP's Disaster Preparedness, Relief and Rehabilitation Programs in Asia and the Pacific, go to http://www.afap.org and click on the "Donate On-Line" icon in the top right-hand corner.

To sign up for AFAP's free APCEDI email service, please go to http://www.afap.org/apcedi/ and register your email address.

APCEDI Alert SP/PNG Cyclone Kate #1-2006: Cyclone Kate heading toward Central and Milne Bay Provinces, PNG

The Brisbane Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre and the Joint Typhoon Warning Centre continue to issue guidance on Cyclone Kate which formed in the North Coral Sea earlier today.

Cyclone Kate is approximately 220 km south-southeast of Port Moresby moving east at 18 km/hour.

Cyclone Kate has rapidly strengthened to Category 1 intensity on the Saffir Simpson Scale and is expected to slowly intensify over the next 24 hours as it heads towards eastern Central Province and Milne Bay Province in Papua New Guinea (PNG). Gusty showers with gales are currently moving into the area to the east of Kupiano and affecting the towns of Tutubu, Abau, Robinson River, Magarida, Gadaisu, Suau and all around the Samurai area including Sariba, Basilaki and Kwalaiwa Islands including the Daloloia Group. Heavy rain showers and gales will continue over much of this area and move into the Louisades later tonight and throughout the day tomorrow.

All interests in the above named areas as well as the remainder of the Eastern half of Central Province and all of Milne Bay Province, especially the Alotau and Samari areas and the Louisades, should monitor this storm closely and follow any instructions issued by authorities as the storm approaches tonight and tomorrow. Forecast tracks are not in agreement at this point with some models showing a turn away from PNG and others showing a direct hit on the Louisades and Southern Milne Bay.

From the Brisbane Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

IDQ20065
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Queensland Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BULLETIN
For 10pm EST on Thursday the 23rd of February 2006

At 10pm EST Thursday, Tropical Cyclone Kate, Category 2, with central pressure 985 hPa, was located in the northern Coral Sea near 11.3S 147.4E, about 460 km east-northeast of Lockhart River. The cyclone has been moving to the east at about 18 km/hr, however it is expected to slow down during the next 12 to 24 hours.

Currently Tropical Cyclone Kate poses no threat to the Queensland coast.

The next bulletin will be issued from the Queensland Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre by 5am Friday morning.
________________________

From the Joint Typhoon Warning Centre

230900Z POSITION NEAR 11.5S 146.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 13P (KATE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 120 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF PORT MORESBY, PAPUA NEW GUINEA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 13P IS BEING STEERED BY NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGING TO THE NORTH. AFTER THE DEPARTURE OF A MERIDIONAL TROUGH TO THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM, RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE CORAL SEA AND BEGIN TO STEER THE STORM ON A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK. A MODERATE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WILL KEEP TC 13P AS A MODERATE STRENGTH STORM OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 230600Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 232100Z AND 240900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES//
________________________

APCEDI will continue to monitor the progress of this system.

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator
http://www.afap.org/apcedi/

To donate to AFAP's Disaster Preparedness, Relief and Rehabilitation Programs in Asia and the Pacific, go to http://www.afap.org and click on the "Donate On-Line" icon in the top right-hand corner.

To sign up for AFAP's free APCEDI email service, please go to http://www.afap.org/apcedi/ and register your email address.

APCEDI Alert SP/FJ Cyclone Vaianu (TD12F) #6-2006: Cyclone Vaianu Causes Widespread Light Damage across Tongatapu

The RSMC-Nadi Tropical Cyclone Centre and the Joint Typhoon Warning Centre continue to issue guidance on Cyclone Vaianu.

Cyclone Vaianu is currently at Category 1 intensity on the Saffir Simpson Scale and continues to slowly intensify as it moves away from Tonga.

Cyclone Vaianu passed 140 km to the west of the main Tongan Island of Tongatapu overnight. Vaianu is currently 160 km to the southwest of Tongatapu, and is now moving away from Tonga into the Southern Ocean.

Tongatapu is reporting widespread minor damage such as sporadic power outages including areas in the capital Nuku'alofa, lines down, some minor roof damage and water leakage to houses, sporadic damage to trees and crops especially to banana trees and flooding in low lying areas. Schools, Government Offices and some businesses will remained closed today as gales continue as the storm moves away. Standing water is a problem and combined with downed powerlines, caution should be taken when venturing outside after the storm has passed. The situation on 'Eua is much the same.

Vaianu is moving south at about 08 knots (15 km/h) and should continue moving southward into the Southern Ocean during the next 24 hours.

Although the storm is moving away from all island areas, all interests in Tonga, Fiji, Niue, Wallis and Futuna and Samoa should closely monitor the situation due to continuing rough seas, winds and heavy rains from outer bands.

CURRENT ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS

TONGA
A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR TONGATAPU GROUP AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS.
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR NIUAS, AND VAVAU, HA'APAI AND NOMUKA GROUPS.

SAMOA
WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN FORCE FOR THE SOUTHERN COAST OF SAMOA
FLOOD AND LAND SLIDE ADVISORY IS NOW CANCELLED

NIUE
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR NIUE.

FIJI
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR SOUTHERN LAU GROUP AND IS NOW CANCELLED FOR NORTHERN LAU GROUP.
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR ALL FIJI WATERS.
A DAMAGING SWELL WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR FIJI.

WALLIS AND FUTUNA
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR WALLIS AND FUTUNA WATERS.

AMERICAN SAMOA
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
_____________________________

From the RSMC-Nadi Tropical Cyclone Centre

Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A15 issued from RSMC NADI
Feb 13/2015 UTC 2006 UTC.

Tropical Cyclone VAIANU [965hPa] centre was located near 22.1 South 176.8 West at 131800 UTC. Position fair. Repeat position 22.1S 176.8W at 131800 UTC. Cyclone moving south at about 08 knots and expected to eventually turn southeast in the next 12 hours. Cyclone intensifying. Expect sustained winds of 70 knots close to the centre increasing to 80 knots in the next 6 to 12 hours. Expect winds over 63 knots within 20 miles of centre, over 47 knots within 40 miles of centre and over
33 knots within 120 miles of centre in sectors from north through east to southwest and within 80 miles elsewhere.

Overall organisation increasing, gradually, past 6 hours. Convective bands wrapping tighter around llcc. Outflow good to north and south but restricted elsewhere. Shear remains minimal. SST in the area is about 28-29. Further intensification anticipated. Dvorak analysis based on centre embedded in B yielding DT=5.0. PT=MET=4.5, thus T4.5/4.5/D0.5/24hrs. Cyclone is being steered southward by a deep northerly steering flow with an eventual southeast turn is expected in the next 12 hours. Global models generally agree on this with further intensification.

FORECAST:
12hrs valid at 140600 UTC near 23.2S 176.3W mov SE at 08kt with 80 kt close to the centre.
24hrs valid at 141800 UTC near 24.1S 175.7W mov SE at 08kt with 80 kt close to the centre.

OUTLOOK:
36hrs valid at 150600 UTC near 25.1S 174.7W mov SE at 07kt with 70kt close to the centre.
48hrs valid at 151800 UTC near 26.4S 173.6W mov SE at 07kt with 50kt close to the centre.

The next Tropical Disturbance Advisory on Tropical Cyclone VAIANU will be issued around 140200 UTC.

__________________________

The TONGA FORESCAST from RSMC-Nadi Tropical Cyclone Centre

Special Weather Bulletin Number TWENTY-FOUR for Tonga on TROPICAL CYCLONE VAIANU issued from RSMC NADI
Feb 13/2103 UTC 2006 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.

A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR TONGATAPU GROUP AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS.
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR NIUAS, AND VAVAU, HA'APAI AND NOMUKA
GROUPS.

Tropical Cyclone VAIANU [965hPa] centre was located near 22.2 South 176.6 West or about 100 miles southwest of Nukualofa and 150 miles southwest of Nomuka at 132000 UTC. Cyclone moving south at about 08 knots and expected to eventually turn southeast in the next 12 hours. Maximum 10-minute average winds estimated at 70 knots close to the centre, increasing to 80 knots in the next 6 to 12 hours. Expect winds over 63 knots within 20 miles of centre. Expect winds over 47 knots within 40 miles of centre and over 33 knots within 120 miles of centre in sectors from north through east to southwest and within 80 miles elsewhere.

On its current track, the cyclone is expected to be located about 140 miles south-southwest of Nukualofa or 195 miles south-southwest of Nomuka at 140600 UTC and 160 miles south-southwest of Nukualofa or 215 miles south-southwest of
Nomuka at 141200 UTC.

FOR TONGATAPU GROUP AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS:
Expect damaging gale force winds with average speeds of 35 to 45 knots and momentary gusts of 50 to 65 knots. Frequent heavy rain and squally thunderstorms. Flooding including sea flooding of low-lying coastal areas expected. High seas. Damaging heavy swells.

FOR NOMUKA GROUP, VAVAU GROUP, HA'APAI GROUP, NIUAFO'OU AND NIUATOPUTAPU:
North to northwest winds 25 to 30 knots, gusting to 45 knots. Further periods of rain, heavy at times, with squally thunderstorms. Flooding including sea flooding of low-lying coastal areas expected especially about Nomuka, Ha'apai and Vavau groups. Very rough seas. Damaging heavy swells still expected over Nomuka, Ha'pai and Vavau groups but easing over the Niuas.

THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS PROVIDED ESPECIALLY FOR MARINERS:
Expect sustained winds of 70 knots close to the centre, increasing to 80 knots in the next 6 to 12 hours. Expect winds over 63 knots within 20 miles of centre with phenomenal seas. Winds over 47 knots within 40 miles of centre with very high seas and winds over 33 knots within 120 miles of centre in sectors from north through east to southwest and within 80 miles elsewhere with high seas. Damaging heavy swells.

The next Special Weather Bulletin for Tonga on Tropical Cyclone Vaianu will be issued around 140000 UTC. TONGA PSE ACKNOWLEDGE THE RECEIPT OF THIS BULLETIN.
______________________

APCEDI will continue to monitor the progress of this system.

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator
http://www.afap.org/apcedi/

To donate to AFAP's Disaster Preparedness, Relief and Rehabilitation Programs in Asia and the Pacific, go to http://www.afap.org and click on the "Donate On-Line" icon in the top right-hand corner.

To sign up for AFAP's free APCEDI email service, please go to http://www.afap.org/apcedi/ and register your email address.

APCEDI Alert SP/FJ Cyclone Vaianu (TD12F) #5-2006: Cyclone Vaianu Gives a Glancing Blow to Tongatapu

The RSMC-Nadi Tropical Cyclone Centre and the Joint Typhoon Warning Centre continue to issue guidance on Cyclone Vaianu.

Cyclone Vaianu is currently at Category 1 intensity on the Saffir Simpson Scale and is expected to slowly intensify over the next 24 hours.

Cyclone Vaianu is starting to make its pass to the west of the main Tongan Island of Tongatapu. Vaianu is currently 170 km to the northwest of Tongatapu, and tonight it is expected to pass about 140 km to the west of the island before going into the Southern Ocean. Tongatapu is reporting widespread minor damage such as sporadic power outages, some lines down, sporadic damage to trees and crops and some flooding in low lying areas. Schools, Government Offices and some businesses were closed today and will likely be closed again tomorrow.

However, damage should continue to be light with possible patches of locally moderate damage in flood and wind-prone areas. Standing water will be a problem and combined with downed powerlines, caution should be taken when venturing outside after the storm has passed. However, given the distance of the storm, major to sever damage is not expected. The situation on 'Eua will be much the same. Also the far southern part of the Southern Lau Group of Fiji should maintain vigilance especially the southeastern-most islands of Vatoa and Onoilau.

Vaianu is moving south at about 06 knots (11 km/h) and should continue moving southward into the Southern Ocean during the next 24 hours.

All interests in Tonga, Fiji and Niue should closely monitor the progress of this storm, and undertake any actions as advised by the local authorities. Although the storm is moving away from Wallis and Futuna and Samoa, all interests should maintain vigilance due to continuing rough seas, winds and heavy rains.

CURRENT ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS

TONGA
A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR NOMUKA GROUP, TONGATAPU GROUP AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS.
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR NIUAS AND VAVAU AND HA'APAI GROUPS.

SAMOA
WIND ADVISORY IN FORCE FOR SAMOA
FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN FORCE
LANDSLIDE ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT

NIUE
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR NIUE.

FIJI
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE OVER LAND AREAS OF THE LAU GROUP.
A DAMAGING SWELL WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR FIJI.
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR ALL FIJI WATERS.

WALLIS AND FUTUNA
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR WALLIS AND FUTUNA WATERS.

AMERICAN SAMOA
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
_____________________________

From the RSMC-Nadi Tropical Cyclone Centre

Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A12 issued from RSMC NADI
Feb 13/0149 UTC 2006 UTC.

Tropical Cyclone VAIANU [975hPa] centre was located near 20.1 South 176.8 West at 130000 UTC. Position fair and based on MTSAT EIR and VIS imagery with animation and peripheral surface reports. Repeat position 20.1S 176.8W at 130000 UTC. Cyclone moving south-southwest at about 05 knots but is expected to eventually turn southeast in the next 24 hours. Cyclone intensifying. Maximum 10-minute average winds estimated at 60 knots close to the centre, increasing to 65 knots in the next 6 to 12 hours. Expect winds over 47 knots within 30 miles of centre and winds over 33 knots within 100 miles of centre in sectors from north through east to southwest and within 80 miles elsewhere.

Overall organisation good. Low-level circulation exposed in west semi-circle. Entrainment of environmental air together with diurnal influence affecting further development. Cyclone lies under the 250-hPa ridge in a diffluent region. Outflow good to south and north and restricted elsewhere. Shear remains minimal. SST in the area is about 29-30C. Further intensification anticipated. Dvorak analysis based on a 1.3 wrap on log10 spiral. yielding DT=4.0. PT=MET=4.0, thus T4.0/4.0/D1.0/24hrs. Cyclone is being steered southward by a deep northerly steering flow. An eventual southeast turn is expected in the next 24 hours. Global models generally agree on this with further intensification.

FORECAST:
12hrs valid at 131200 UTC near 21.3S 176.18W mov S at 06kt with 65 kt close to the centre.
24hrs valid at 140000 UTC near 22.0S 176.8W mov S at 05kt with 65 kt close to the centre.

OUTLOOK:
36hrs valid at 141200 UTC near 22.9S 176.2W mov SSE at 05kt with 60kt close to the centre.
48hrs valid at 150000 UTC near 23.9S 175.2W mov SSE at 05kt with 60kt close to the centre.

The next Tropical Disturbance Advisory on Tropical Cyclone VAIANU will be issued around 130800 UTC.
__________________________

The TONGA FORESCAST from RSMC-Nadi Tropical Cyclone Centre

Special Weather Bulletin Number NINETEEN for Tonga on TROPICAL CYCLONE VAIANU issued from RSMC NADI
Feb 13/0557 UTC 2006 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.

A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR NOMUKA GROUP, TONGATAPU GROUP AND NEARBY
SMALLER ISLANDS.
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR NIUAS AND VAVAU AND HA'APAI GROUPS.

Tropical Cyclone VAIANU [970hPa] centre was located near 20.8 South 176.9 West at 130500 UTC. Position fair and based on MTSAT VIS/EIR satellite imagery with animation and peripheral surface reports. Repeat position 20.8S 176.9W at 130500 UTC. Cyclone moving southward at about 06 knots. Maximum 10-minute average winds estimated at 65 knots close to the centre. Expect winds over 47 knots within 40 miles of centre and winds over 33 knots within 100 miles of centre in the eastern semicircle and within 80 miles elsewhere.

On its current track, the cyclone is expected to be located about 95 miles west-northwest of Nukualofa or 135 miles southwest of Nomuka at 131100 UTC and 110 miles southwest of Nukualofa or 160 miles southwest of Nomuka at 131700 UTC.

FOR NOMUKA GROUP, TONGATAPU GROUP AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS:
Expect damaging gale force winds with average speeds of 35 to 45 knots and momentary gusts of 50 to 65 knots. Frequent heavy rain and squally thunderstorms. Flooding including sea flooding of low-lying coastal areas expected. High seas. Damaging heavy swells.

FOR VAVAU GROUP, HA'APAI GROUP, NIUAFO'OU AND NIUATOPUTAPU:
North to northwest winds 25 to 30 knots, gusting to 45 knots. Further periods of rain, heavy at times, with squally thunderstorms. Flooding including sea flooding of low-lying coastal areas expected especially over the Vavau group. Very rough seas. Damaging heavy swells still expected over Vavau but easing over the Niuas.

THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS PROVIDED ESPECIALLY FOR MARINERS:
Expect sustained winds of 65 knots close to the centre. Expect winds over 63 knots within 20 miles of centre with phenomenal seas. Winds over 47 knots within 40 miles of centre with very high seas and winds over 33 knots within 100 miles of centre in the eastern semicircle and within 80 miles elsewhere with high seas. Damaging heavy swells.

The next Special Weather Bulletin for Tonga on Tropical Cyclone Vaianu will be issued around 130900 UTC. TONGA PSE ACKNOWLEDGE THE RECEIPT OF THIS BULLETIN.
______________________

APCEDI will continue to monitor the progress of this system.

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator
http://www.afap.org/apcedi/

To donate to AFAP's Disaster Preparedness, Relief and Rehabilitation Programs in Asia and the Pacific, go to http://www.afap.org and click on the "Donate On-Line" icon in the top right-hand corner.

To sign up for AFAP's free APCEDI email service, please go to http://www.afap.org/apcedi/ and register your email address.

APCEDI Alert SP/FJ Cyclone Vaianu (TD12F) #4-2006: Cyclone Vaianu Slowly Strengthens as it passes west of the main Central and Southern Tonga Groups

The RSMC-Nadi Tropical Cyclone Centre and the Joint Typhoon Warning Centre continue to issue guidance on Cyclone Vaianu.

Cyclone Vaianu is currently at Category 1 intensity on the Saffir Simpson Scale and is expected to slowly intensify over the next 24 hours.

Cyclone Vaianu continues passing roughly equidistantly between the Central and Southern Tonga Groups and the Southern Lau Group of Fiji over 200 km from either area. This continues to be good news for both countries because as it is passing between both areas, neither of them will sustain a direct hit. Therefore, only minor damage and flooding of low lying areas is likely. However, any change in direction could bring the storm closer to island areas.

Vaianu is moving southwest at about 05 knots (09 km/h) and expected to curve southward in 24 hours. Given Vaianu's forecast track to the west of the main Tonga islands it is likely that only minor damage and flooding could occur throughout much of the Vava'u, Ha'apai and Nomuka Groups for the most part. However, the western most islands in the Groups such as Late (Vava'u), Kao and Tofua (Ha'apai) and Fonuafo'ou and Hunga Tonga (Nomuka) should be particularly alert as the centre of Vaianu will be closest to these islands. Tonga's main island of Tongatapu needs to closely watch this storm as long term forecasting shows it curving south and southeast, but still passing to the west of the main island.

Also the Southern Lau Group of Fiji should maintain vigilance especially the southeastern-most islands of Ogea, Vatoa and Onoilau.

All interests in Tonga, Fiji and Niue should closely monitor the progress of this storm, and undertake any actions as advised by the local authorities. Although the storm is moving away from Wallis and Futuna and Samoa, all interests should maintain vigilance due to continuing rough seas, winds and heavy rains.

CURRENT ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS

TONGA
A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR NOMUKA GROUP, HA'APAI GROUP, TONGATAPU GROUP AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS.
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR NIUAS AND VAVAU GROUP.

SAMOA
WIND ADVISORY IN FORCE FOR SAMOA
FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN FORCE
LANDSLIDE ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT

NIUE
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR NIUE.

FIJI
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE OVER LAND AREAS OF THE LAU GROUP.
A DAMAGING SWELL WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR FIJI.
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR ALL FIJI WATERS.

WALLIS AND FUTUNA
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR WALLIS AND FUTUNA WATERS.

AMERICAN SAMOA
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
_____________________________

From the RSMC-Nadi Tropical Cyclone Centre

Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A11 issued from RSMC NADI
Feb 12/2002 UTC 2006 UTC.

Tropical Cyclone VAIANU [975hPa] centre was located near 19.1 South 176.9 West at 121800 UTC. Position fair and based on MTSAT/EIR with animation and peripheral surface reports. Repeat position 19.1S 176.9W at 121800 UTC. Cyclone moving southwest at about 05 knots but is expected to turn south in the next 6 to 12 hours. Cyclone intensifying. Maximum 10-minute average winds estimated at 60 knots close to the centre, increasing to 65 knots in the next 6 to 12 hours. Expect winds over 47 knots within 30 miles of centre and winds over 33 knots within 100 miles of centre in sectors from north through east to southwest and within 80 miles elsewhere.

Overall organisation improved past 24 hours though development steady past 6 hours. Warm air intrusion evident past 6 hours. Some warming of convective tops occuring. The system lies under the 250-hPa ridge in a diffluent region. Outflow good to south and north and restricted elsewhere. CIMMS indicates mininal shear over the cyclone. SST in the area is about 29-30C. Dvorak analysis based on LG embedded centre yielding DT=4.5. PT=MET=4.0, thus T4.0/4.0/D1.0/24hrs. Cyclone is being steered by a deep north to northeast steering flow. A gradual southward turn is expected in the next 6 to 12 hours. Global models generally agree on this with further intensification.

FORECAST:
12hrs valid at 130600 UTC near 20.3S 177.1W mov S at 06kt with 65 kt close to the centre.
24hrs valid at 131800 UTC near 21.4S 177.1W mov S at 06kt with 65 kt close to the centre.

OUTLOOK:
36hrs valid at 140600 UTC near 22.4S 177.3W mov S at 06kt with 60kt close to the centre.
48hrs valid at 141800 UTC near 23.5S 176.9W mov S at 05kt with 60kt close to the centre.

The next Tropical Disturbance Advisory on Tropical Cyclone VAIANU will be issued around 130200 UTC.
__________________________

The TONGA FORESCAST from RSMC-Nadi Tropical Cyclone Centre

Special Weather Bulletin Number SIXTEEN for Tonga on TROPICAL CYCLONE VAIANU issued from RSMC NADI
Feb 12/2122 UTC 2006 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.

A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR NOMUKA GROUP, HA'APAI GROUP, TONGATAPU GROUP AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS.
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR NIUAS AND VAVAU GROUP.

Tropical Cyclone VAIANU [975hPa] centre was located near 19.5 South 176.9 West at 122100 UTC. Position fairr and based on MTSAT/EIR with animation and peripheral surface reports. Repeat position 19.0S 177.0W at 121700 UTC. Cyclone moving southwest at about 05 knots but is expected to turn south in the next 6 to 12 hours. Maximum 10-minute average winds estimated at 60 knots close to the centre. Expect winds over 47 knots within 30 miles of centre and winds over 33 knots within 100 miles of centre in the eastern semicircle and within 80 miles elsewhere.

On its current track, the cyclone is expected to lie 125 miles west of Nomuka or 115 miles west-northwest of Nukualofa at 130600 UTC and 110 miles west of Nukualofa or 140 miles west-southwest of Nomuka at 131800 UTC.

FOR NOMUKA GROUP, HA"APAI GROUP, TONGATAPU GROUP AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS:
Expect damaging gale force winds with average speeds of 35 knots and momentary gusts of 55 knots. Periods of heavy rain and squally thunderstorms. Flooding including sea flooding of low-lying coastal areas expected. Very rough to high seas. Damaging heavy swells.

FOR VAVAU GROUP, NIUAFO'OU AND NIUATOPUTAPU:
North to northwest winds 25 to 30 knots, gusting to 45 knots. Periods of rain, heavy at times, with squally thunderstorms. Flooding including sea flooding of coastal areas expected particularly over the Vavau group. Very rough seas. Damaging heavy swells gradually easing over the Niuas.

THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS PROVIDED ESPECIALLY FOR MARINERS:
Expect sustained winds of 60 knots close to the centre with phenomenal seas. Expect winds over 47 knots within 30 miles of centre with very high seas and winds over 33 knots within 100 miles of centre in the eastern semicircle and within 80 miles elsewhere with high seas.

The next Special Weather Bulletin for Tonga on Tropical Cyclone Vaianu will be issued around 130000 UTC. TONGA PSE ACKNOWLEDGE THE RECEIPT OF THIS BULLETIN. NOTE THAT THIS BULLETIN IS NUMBER 16. 121800Z ISSUE SHOULD HAVE BEEN NO 15.
______________________

APCEDI will continue to monitor the progress of this system.

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator
http://www.afap.org/apcedi/

To donate to AFAP's Disaster Preparedness, Relief and Rehabilitation Programs in Asia and the Pacific, go to http://www.afap.org and click on the "Donate On-Line" icon in the top right-hand corner.

To sign up for AFAP's free APCEDI email service, please go to http://www.afap.org/apcedi/ and register your email address.

APCEDI Alert SP/FJ Cyclone Vaianu (TD12F) #3-2006: Cyclone Vaianu Slowly Strengthens between Central Tonga and Fiji's Southern Lau Group

The RSMC-Nadi Tropical Cyclone Centre and the Joint Typhoon Warning Centre continue to issue guidance on Cyclone Vaianu.

Cyclone Vaianu is currently a minimal Category 1 on the Saffir Simpson Scale and is expected to slowly intensify over the next 24 hours.

Cyclone Vaianu is located equidistant between the Central Tonga Groups and the Southern Lau Group of Fiji over 200 km from either area. This is good news because it is passing between both areas, neither of them will sustain a direct hit. Therefore, only minor damage and flooding of low lying areas is likely. However, any change in direction could bring the storm closer to island areas.

Vaianu is moving southwest at about 06 knots (11 km/h) and expected to curve southward in 24 hours. Given Vaianu's forecast track to the west of the main Tonga islands it is likely that only minor damage and flooding could occur throughout much of the Vava'u, Ha'apai and Nomuka Groups for the most part. However, the western most islands in the Groups such as Late (Vava'u), Kao and Tofua (Ha'apai) and Fonuafo'ou and Hunga Tonga (Nomuka) should be particularly alert as the centre of Vaianu will be closest to these islands. Tonga's main island of Tongatapu needs to closely watch this storm as long term forecasting shows it curving southeast, but still passing to the west of the main island.

Also the Southern Lau Group of Fiji should maintain vigilance especially the southeastern-most islands of Ogea, Vatoa and Onoilau.

All interests in Tonga and Niue should closely monitor the progress of this storm, and undertake any actions as advised by the local authorities. Although the storm is moving away from Wallis and Futuna, Fiji and Samoa, all interests should maintain vigilance due to continuing rough seas, winds and heavy rains.

CURRENT ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS

TONGA
A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR VAVAU GROUP, HAAPAI GROUP AND NOMUKA GROUP AND IS NOW IN FORCE FOR SOUTHERN TONGA.
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR NIUAS.

SAMOA
WIND ADVISORY IN FORCE FOR SAMOA
FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN FORCE
LANDSLIDE ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT

NIUE
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR NIUE.

FIJI
A STRONG WIND WARNING IS NOW IN FORCE OVER LAND AREAS OF THE LAU GROUP.
A DAMAGING SWELL WARNING IS NOW IN FORCE FOR FIJI
A STRONG WIND WARNING IS NOW IN FORCE FOR LAU WATERS, KORO SEA, KADAVU AND VATU-I-RA PASSAGES, SOUTHWEST VITI LEVU AND MAMANUCA WATERS.

WALLIS AND FUTUNA
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR WALLIS AND FUTUNA WATERS.

AMERICAN SAMOA
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
_____________________________

From the RSMC-Nadi Tropical Cyclone Centre

Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A9 issued from RSMC NADI
Feb 12/0818 UTC 2006 UTC.

Tropical Cyclone VAIANU [975hPa] centre was located near 18.3 South 176.4 West at 120600 UTC. Position fair and based on MTSAT/EIR with animation and peripheral surface reports. Repeat position 18.3S 176.4W at 120600 UTC. Cyclone moving southwest at about 06 knots but is expected to turn south in the next 24 hours. Cyclone intensifying. Maximum 10-minute average winds estimated at 60 knots close to the centre, increasing to 65 knots in the next 6 to 12 hours. Expect winds over 47 knots within 30 miles of centre and winds over 33 knots within 100 miles of centre in the eastern semicircle and within 80
miles elsewhere.

System organisation has improved after initial supression due to diurnal influence around 0300 UTC. Convection wraps closer and tighter to llcc and Vaianu still struggles to form a banding eye. The system remains embedded in the 250hPa subtropical ridge in a diffluent region. Outflow remains good in all quadrants. CIMMS indicates mininal shear over the cyclone and its forecast track southwards. Vaianu is expected to further intensify as it moves southwards tonight, aided by diurnal changes and low environment shear. SST in the area is about 29-30C. Dvorak analysis based on 1.05 wrap on log10 spiral gives DT=PT=4.0 while MET=3.5, yielding T4.0/4.0/D1.5/24hrs. The system is steered southwest by a mid-level ridge located to the east for the next 12 hours and it is expected to curve southwards beyond 12 hours in response to an approaching broad upper trough from the west. Global models agree on an initial southwest track with further intensification.

FORECAST:
12hrs valid at 121800 UTC near 19.3S 177.0W mov SSW at 05kt with 65 kt close to the centre.
24hrs valid at 130600 UTC near 20.7S 177.2W mov SSW at 05kt with 70 kt close to the centre.

OUTLOOK:
36hrs valid at 131800 UTC near 21.9S 177.3W mov SSW at 05kt with 70kt close to the centre.
48hrs valid at 140600 UTC near 22.5S 176.8W mov S at 05kt with 70kt close to the centre.

The next Tropical Disturbance Advisory on Tropical Cyclone VAIANU will be issued around 121400 UTC.
__________________________

The TONGA FORESCAST from RSMC-Nadi Tropical Cyclone Centre

Special Weather Bulletin Number TWELVE for Tonga on TROPICAL CYCLONE VAIANU issued from RSMC NADI
Feb 12/0848 UTC 2006 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.

A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR VAVAU GROUP, HAAPAI GROUP AND NOMUKA GROUP AND IS NOW IN FORCE FOR SOUTHERN TONGA.
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR NIUAS.

Tropical Cyclone VAIANU [975hPa] centre was located near 18.3 South 176.4 West at 120600 UTC. Position fair and based on MTSAT/EIR with animation and peripheral surface reports. Repeat position 18.3S 176.4W at 120600 UTC. Cyclone moving southwest at about 06 knots but is expected to turn south in the next 24 hours. Cyclone intensifying. Maximum 10-minute average winds estimated at 60 knots close to the centre, increasing to 65 knots in the next 6 to 12 hours. Expect winds over 47 knots within 30 miles of centre and winds over 33 knots within 100 miles of centre in the eastern semicircle and within 80 miles elsewhere.

On its current track, the cyclone is expected to lie 130 miles westnorthwest of Ha'afeva at 121200 UTC and 130 miles westnorthwest of Nomuka at 121800 UTC.

FOR VAVA'U GROUP, HA'APAI GROUP, NOMUKA GROUP, KOTU GROUP:
Expect damaging gale force winds with average speeds 30 to 35 knots and momentary gusts of 55 to 60 knots about Vava'u Group, easing later tonight. North to northeast winds 25 to 30 knots gusting to 45 knots about Ha'apai Group, Nomuka group, Kotu group, increasing to damaging gale force with average speeds of 30 to 35 knots and momentary gusts of 55 knots overnight. Periods of heavy rain and squally thunderstorms. Flooding including sea flooding of low-lying coastal areas expected. Very rough to high seas. Damaging heavy swells.

FOR SOUTHERN TONGA:
Easterly winds 20 to 25 knots with gusts to 35 knots. Winds gradually turning northeast and possibly increasing to damaging gale force with average speeds of 35 to 40 knots and momentary gusts of 50 to 60 knots within the next 12 to 24 hours. Rain, heavy at times with squally thunderstorms. Flooding including sea flooding of low-lying coastal areas expected. Very rough to high seas. Damaging heavy swells developing.

FOR NIUAFO'OU AND NIUATOPUTAPU:
West to northwest winds 25 to 30 knots, gusting 45 knots. Rain, heavy at times with squally thunderstorms. Sea flooding of coastal areas. Rough to very rough seas. Heavy northwest swells.

THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS PROVIDED ESPECIALLY FOR MARINERS:
Expect sustained winds of 60 knots close to the centre increasing to 65 knots in the next 6 to 12 hours. Expect winds over 47 knots within 30 miles of centre and winds over 33 knots within 100 miles of centre in the eastern semicircle and within 80 miles elsewhere.

The next Special Weather Bulletin for Tonga on Tropical Cyclone Vaianu will be issued at 121200 UTC. TONGA PSE ACKNOWLEDGE THE RECEIPT OF THIS BULLETIN.
______________________

APCEDI will continue to monitor the progress of this system.

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator
http://www.afap.org/apcedi/

To donate to AFAP's Disaster Preparedness, Relief and Rehabilitation Programs in Asia and the Pacific, go to http://www.afap.org and click on the "Donate On-Line" icon in the top right-hand corner.

To sign up for AFAP's free APCEDI email service, please go to http://www.afap.org/apcedi/ and register your email address.

APCEDI Alert SP/FJ Cyclone Vaianu (TD12F) #2-2006: Cyclone Vaianu forms near Vava'u Group, Threatens Central and Southern Tonga

The RSMC-Nadi Tropical Cyclone Centre and the Joint Typhoon Warning Centre are issuing guidance on Cyclone Vaianu, formally Tropical Depression 12F.

Cyclone Vaianu formed last night northwest of the Vava'u Group. It is currently at Tropical Storm Strength and is expected to slowly intensify over the next 24 hours.

Cyclone Vaianu is located about 150 kilometres west-northwest of Vava'u or about 220 miles north-northwest of Ha'apai, and is moving . Vaianu is moving south-southwest at about 07 knots (13 km/h) and expected to curve southwest. Given Vaianu's forecast track to the west of the main islands and Vaianu's small size, it is likely that only minor damage and flooding could occur throughout much of the Vava'u, Ha'apai and Nomuka Groups for the most part. However, the western most islands in the Groups such as Late (Vava'u), Kao and Tofua (Ha'apai) and Fonuafo'ou and Hunga Tonga (Nomuka) should be particularly alert as the centre of Vaianu will be closest to these islands. Tonga's main island of Tongatapu needs to closely watch this storm as long term forecasting shows it curving southeast, but still passing to the west of the main island.

All interests in Tonga, Niue, and the Cook Islands should closely monitor the progress of this storm, and undertake any actions as advised by the local authorities. Although the storm is moving away from Wallis and Futuna, Fiji and Samoa, all interests should maintain vigilance due to continuing rough seas, winds and heavy rains.

CURRENT ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS

TONGA
A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR VAVAU GROUP, HAAPAI GROUP AND NOMUKA GROUP.
A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT REMAINS IN FORCE FOR SOUTHERN TONGA.
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE NIUAS AND SOUTHERN TONGA.

SAMOA
WIND ADVISORY IN FORCE FOR SAMOA
FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN FORCE
LANDSLIDE ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT

NIUE
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR NIUE.

FIJI
A STRONG WIND WARNING IS NOW IN FORCE FOR THE SOUTHERN LAU GROUP.
A STRONG WIND WARNING IS NOW IN FORCE FOR LAU WATERS, KORO SEA, KADAVU AND VATU-I-RA PASSAGES.

WALLIS AND FUTUNA
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR WALLIS AND FUTUNA WATERS.

AMERICAN SAMOA
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
_____________________________

From the RSMC-Nadi Tropical Cyclone Centre

Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A7 issued from RSMC NADI
Feb 11/1951 UTC 2006 UTC.

Tropical Cyclone VAIANU [990hPa] centre was located near 17.8 South 175.4 West at 111800 UTC. Position poor and based on MTSAT/EIR with animation and peripheral surface reports. Repeat position 17.8S 175.4W at 111800 UTC. Cyclone moving southsouthwest at about 07 knots and expected to curve southwest. Cyclone intensifying. Maximum 10-minute average winds estimated at 40 knots close to the centre increasing to 45 knots in the next 6 to 12 hours. Expect winds above 33 knots with 60 nautical miles of centre.

TC Vaianu's overall organisation continues to improve despite 10 to 20 knots shear aloft. CIMMS indicates that the cyclone is moving into a decreasing shear zone and the increased equatorward outflow should maintain a positive growth curve for the system. LLCC still difficult to locate and placed near the southern edge of deep convection. The system lies just south of 250-hPa outflow in a diffluent region. SST in the area is about 29-30C. Dvorak analysis based on .60 wrap on log10 spiral gives DT=MET=PT=3.0, yielding T3.0/3.0/D1.0/24hrs. The system is steered southwest by a mid-level ridge to east for the next 24 hours and is expected to curve southeast beyond 48 hours in response to an approaching broad upper trough from the west. Global models agree on a southwest track with further intensification in the short term.

FORECAST:
12hrs valid at 120600 UTC near 18.9S 176.3W mov SSW at 07kt with 45 kt close to the centre.
24hrs valid at 121800 UTC near 19.6S 176.9W mov SW at 05kt with 55 kt close to the centre.

OUTLOOK:
36hrs valid at 130600 UTC near 20.3S 176.7W mov SSE at 05kt with 60kt close to the centre.
48hrs valid at 131800 UTC near 21.3S 176.3W mov SSE at 06kt with 60kt close to the centre.

The next Tropical Disturbance Advisory on Tropical Cyclone VAIANU will be issued around 120200 UTC.
__________________________

The TONGA FORESCAST from RSMC-Nadi Tropical Cyclone Centre


Special Weather Bulletin Number Eight for Tonga on TROPICAL CYCLONE VAIANU issued from RSMC NADI
Feb 11/2055 UTC 2006 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.

A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR VAVAU GROUP, HAAPAI GROUP AND NOMUKA GROUP.
A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT REMAINS IN FORCE FOR SOUTHERN TONGA.
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE NIUAS AND SOUTHERN TONGA.

Tropical Cyclone VAIANU [990hPa] centre was located near 17.8 South 175.4 West or about 95 miles westnorthwest of Vava'u or about 135 miles northnorthwest of Ha'apai at 111800 UTC. Position poor and based on MTSAT/EIR with animation and
peripheral surface reports. Repeat position 17.8S 175.4W at 111800 UTC. Cyclone moving southsouthwest at about 07 knots and expected to curve southwest. Cyclone intensifying. Maximum 10-minute average winds estimated at 40 knots close to the centre increasing to 45 knots in the next 6 to 12 hours. Expect winds above 33 knots with 60 nautical miles of centre.

On its current track, the cyclone is expected to lie 115 miles northwest of Ha'afeva or 120 miles west of Vava'u at 120300 UTC and 110 miles northwest of Ha'afeva at 120600 UTC.

FOR VAVA'U GROUP, HA'APAI GROUP, NOMUKA GROUP, KOTU GROUP:
Expect damaging gale force winds with average speeds 30 to 35 knots and momentary gusts of 55 to 60 knots about Vava'u Group. North to northeast winds 25 knots gusting to 45 knots about Ha'apai Group, Nomuka group, Kotu group, increasing to damaging gale force with average speeds of 30 to 35 knots and momentary gusts up to 60 knots within the next 6 to 12 hours. Periods of heavy rain and with some squally thunderstorms. Flooding including sea flooding of low-lying coastal areas expected. Very rough to high seas. Damaging heavy swells.

FOR SOUTHERN TONGA:
East to southeast winds 20 to 25 knots with gusts to 35 knots. Winds expected to gradually turn north to northeast and increase to damaging gale force with average speeds of 35 to 40 knots and momentary gusts of 50 to 60 knots in the next 24 to 36 hours. Some rain, becoming frequent and heavy tonight with squally thunderstorms. Flooding including sea flooding of low-lying coastal areas expected. Very rough to high seas. Damaging heavy swells developing.

FOR NIUAFO'OU AND NIUATOPUTAPU:
West to northwest winds 25 to 30 knots, gusting to 45 knots. Rain, heavy at times with squally thunderstorms. Flooding of low lying areas, including sea flooding of coastal areas likely. Rough to very rough seas. Heavy northwest swells.

THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS PROVIDED ESPECIALLY FOR MARINERS:
Expect sustained winds of 40 knots close to Vaianu's centre increasing to 45 knots in the next 6 to 12 hours. Expect winds over 33 knots within 60 miles of centre. High seas and heavy swells.
______________________

APCEDI will continue to monitor the progress of this system.

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator
http://www.afap.org/apcedi/

To donate to AFAP's Disaster Preparedness, Relief and Rehabilitation Programs in Asia and the Pacific, go to http://www.afap.org and click on the "Donate On-Line" icon in the top right-hand corner.

To sign up for AFAP's free APCEDI email service, please go to http://www.afap.org/apcedi/ and register your email address.

APCEDI Alert SP/FJ Tropical Depression 12F #1-2006: Tropical Depression 12F threatens to Form Cyclone, Threatens Tonga

The RSMC-Nadi Tropical Cyclone Centre and the Joint Typhoon Warning Centre are issuing guidance on Tropical Depression 12F that is threatening to form into Cyclone between Niuafo'ou and the Vava'u Group.

Cyclone 12F formed several days ago near the Territory of Wallis and Futuna and has been steadily strengthening. The system has become very organised throughout and day, and may become a cyclone later tonight or early tomorrow..

Tropical Depression 12F is located about 120 kilometres south-east of Niuafo'ou or 220 kilometres north-northwest of Vava'u and 430 kilometres north of Nukualofa at 1101000 UTC. The Depression is now moving southeast about 07 knots and expected to intensify further and become a tropical cyclone in the next 12 to 24 hours.

All interests in Tonga, Niue, and the Cook Islands should closely monitor the progress of this storm, and undertake any actions as advised by the local authorities. Although the storm is moving away from Wallis and Futuna, Fiji and Samoa, all interests should maintain vigilance due to continuing rough seas, winds and heavy rains.

CURRENT ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS

TONGA
A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT IS NOW IN FORCE FOR TONGA.
A STRONG WIND WARNING IS IN FORCE FOR THE WHOLE OF TONGA.

SAMOA
WIND ADVISORY IN FORCE FOR SAMOA
FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN FORCE
LANDSLIDE ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT

NIUE
STRONG WIND WARNING

WALLIS AND FUTUNA
A STRONG WIND WARNING IN FORCE FOR WALLIS AND FUTUNA WATERS.

AMERICAN SAMOA
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
_______________________________________________

From the RSMC-Nadi Tropical Cyclone Centre

Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A4 issued from RSMC NADI
Feb 11/0205 UTC 2006 UTC.

Tropical Depression 12F [999 hPa] centre was re-located near 16.6S 174.9W at 110000 UTC moving southeast 07 knots. Position poor based on MTSTAT EIR/VIS with animation, Quikscat and SSM/I data and peripheral surface reports. Maximum 10-minute average winds estimated at 25 to 30 knots close to the centre possibly increasing to 35 knots, and extending to within 60 miles of centre in the next 12 to 24 hours.

Organisation undergone marked improvement past 6 hours. Primary band still developing but beginning to wrap around llcc. 12F still lies just south of upper 250-hPa outflow, in a diffluent region and 20 to 25-knot shear. Dvorak analysis based on .40 on log10 spiral giving a T2.5. PT=MET=2.0 Thus, T2.0/2.0/D1.0/24hrs. The system is expected to be steered generally towards the south by a mid-level ridge to southeast. SST in the area is about 29-30C. Some global models agree on a future southward track with further intensification. The potential for 12F to develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 24 hours is moderate to high.

The next Tropical Disturbance Advisory on TD 12F will be issued around 110800 UTC.
______________________________________________________________

The TONGA FORESCAST from RSMC-Nadi Tropical Cyclone Centre

Special Weather Bulletin Number FOUR for Tonga on TROPICAL DEPRESSON 12F issued from RSMC NADI
Feb 11/0332 UTC 2006 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT.

A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT IS NOW IN FORCE FOR TONGA.
A STRONG WIND WARNING IS IN FORCE FOR THE WHOLE OF TONGA.

Tropical Depression 12F [999 hPa] centre was re-located near 16.6 South 174.9 West or about 75 miles south-east of Niuafo'ou or 135 miles north-northwest of Vava'u and 270 miles north of Nukualofa at 1101000 UTC. The Depression is now
moving southeast about 07 knots and expected to intensify further and become a tropical cyclone in the next 12 to 24 hours.

If this happens, winds may gradually increase to damaging gale force especially over the central and southern parts of Tonga within the next 24 hours.

FOR NIUAFO'OU AND NIUATOPUTAPU:
Northwest winds 20 to 25 knots possibly increasing to damaging gale force with average speeds to 35 knots and momentary gust to 50 knots. Rain, heavy at times with squally thunderstorms. Flooding of low lying areas, including sea flooding of low-lying coastal areas possible. Rough to very rough seas. Moderate to heavy swells.

FOR THE REST OF TONGA:
South to southeast winds 20 to 25 knots with gusts to 35 knots. Winds expected to gradually increase to damaging gale force with average speeds of 35 to 40 knots and momentary gusts of 50 to 60 knots in the next 24 to 36 hours. Periods of heavy rain developing with some squally thunderstorms. Flooding including sea flooding of low-lying coastal areas expected. Very rough to high seas. Damaging heavy swells developing.

THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS PROVIDED ESPECIALLY FOR MARINERS:
Clockwise winds may increase to 35 knots within 60 miles of centre in the next 24 hours. High seas. Heavy swells.

The next Special Weather Bulletin for Tonga on Tropical Depression 12F will be issued at 110800 UTC. TONGA PSE ACKNOWLEDGE THE RECEIPT.
______________________

APCEDI will continue to monitor the progress of this system

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator
http://www.afap.org/apcedi/

To donate to AFAP's Disaster Preparedness, Relief and Rehabilitation Programs in Asia and the Pacific, go to http://www.afap.org and click on the "Donate On-Line" icon in the top right-hand corner.

To sign up for AFAP's free APCEDI email service, please go to http://www.afap.org/apcedi/ and register your email address.

APCEDI Alert SP/CS Cyclone Jim #8-2006: Cyclone Jim Moves into the Southern Ocean after causing Minor Damage in New Caledonia (Nouvelle Caledonie)

The RSMC-Nadi Tropical Cyclone Centre, the Joint Typhoon Warning Centre and Meteo France continue to issue guidance on Cyclone Jim.

Meteo France has removed all its Level 1 alerts from the land areas but retains a "Pré-alerte" for the Territory and continues to issue a "Bulletin Météorologique Spécial Marine". The "Pré-alerte" for land areas will likely be lifted today. The RSMC-Nadi Tropical Cyclone Centre has lifted its Special Advisory for Vanuatu.

Cyclone Jim is currently 800 km southeast of Noumea and is moving to the south-southeast at 40 km/hr. Cyclone Jim, is currently at Tropical Storm strength and is likely remain at this strength for another 24 hours.

Heavy rains and gales have cleared from all New Caledonia (Nouvelle Caledonie) land areas although seas remain rough. Widespread minor damage has been reported from across the Loyalty Islands (les Iles Loyauté) and parts of Grande Terre. This includes trees down, localised power outages and some minor coastal flooding. Loyalty Islands (les Iles Loyauté). Extensive, up-to-date news on Cyclone Jim from New Caledonia (Nouvelle Caledonie) can be found on the website of main daily newspaper, Les Nouvelles Calédoniennes.

Latest forecasts are now showing Cyclone Jim stalling 1500 km south of Vanuatu and New Caledonia (Nouvelle Caledonie) so both countries should maintain on-going monitoring even after the storm has passed. Should the storm stall both New Caledonia and Vanuatu should expect very rough seas for several days.

The Solomons port of Guadalcanal is now open. Yesterday, SIDT, the AFAP Partner Office in Honiara, reported the grounding of one of the larger Inter-Island Ferries and that several of the larger Solgreen fishing boats, that had been impounded at the wharf for non-payment of tax and NPF, were smashed up by the rough seas.

All interests in Grande Terre, les Iles Loyauté of New Caledonia (Nouvelle Caledonie) and Vanuatu should still continue to closely monitor the situation through the local news media and follow the advice of the Government as the cyclone passes out of the area. While the storm is now moving away from the islands, very rough seas will remain in Southern parts of the country.
______________________

From Meteo France

Le Haut-Commissariat de la République communique : Message émis le : mercredi 1 fevrier à 07h00 (heure locale de Nouméa)

DEBUT DU MESSAGE
Avis d'alerte cyclconique

L'alerte 1 est levée sur les Loyauté.
La pré-alerte est maintenue sur lensemble du territoire mais pourrait etre levée ce jour vers 11 heures.

FIN DU MESSAGE

Les informations météorologiques les plus récentes sont consultables dans la rubriques "Cyclones" du site www.meteo.nc

WTNC01 NWBB 312054
A: BULLETIN METEOROLOGIQUE SPECIAL MARINE NUMERO 009.
B: AVIS DE TEMPETE REDIGE LE 31/01/06 A 20:50 UTC.
C: A 18:00 UTC LE 31/01/06, DEPRESSION TROPICALE FORTE "JIM" :
- CENTREE PAR 24,7 SUD 171,3 EST.
- PRESSION AU CENTRE ESTIMEE A 980 HPA.
- DEPLACEMENT SUD-SUD-EST 21 NOEUDS.
D: VENTS MOYENS ESTIMES A 55 NOEUDS (RAFALES A 82,5 NOEUDS) DANS UN RAYON DE 20 NAUTIQUES AUTOUR DU CENTRE, MER TRES GROSSE. VENTS SUPERIEURS A 46 NOEUDS (RAFALES A 69 NOEUDS) DANS UN RAYON DE 30 NAUTIQUES AUTOUR DU CENTRE, MER TRES GROSSE. VENTS SUPERIEURS A 33 NOEUDS (RAFALES A 50 NOEUDS) DANS UN RAYON ENTRE 30 ET 60 NAUTIQUES DU CENTRE, MER GROSSE.
E: "JIM" POURSUIT SA TRAJECTOIRE SUD-SUD-EST EN S'AFFAIBLISSANT LENTEMENT.
F: POSITIONS PREVUES :
LE 01/02/06 A 0000 UTC : 26,1 SUD 172,1 EST.
LE 01/02/06 A 0600 UTC : 28,0 SUD 172,7 EST.
LE 01/02/06 A 1200 UTC : 30,0 SUD 173,2 EST.
LE 01/02/06 A 1800 UTC : 31,0 SUD 173,0 EST.
LE 02/02/06 A 0000 UTC : 30,8 SUD 171,8 EST.
LE 02/02/06 A 0600 UTC : 29,8 SUD 170,9 EST.
PROCHAIN BULLETIN SPECIAL MARINE LE 01/02/06 A 02:00 UTC.=
______________________

From the RSMC-Nadi Tropical Cyclone Centre

Hurricane Warning 030 issued from RSMC NADI Jan 31/1325 UTC 2006 UTC.

Tropical Cyclone JIM [965hPa] centre was located near 22.9 South 170.2 East at 311200 UTC.
Position poor.
Repeat position 22.9S 170.2E at 311200 UTC.
Cyclone moving southeast at about 16 knots and expected to decelerate further.
Cyclone weakening.
Expect sustained winds of 70 knots close to the centre, decreasing to 60 knots in the next 6 to 12 hours.
Expect winds over 63 knots within 20 nautical miles of centre
over 47 knots within 50 nautical miles of the centre and
over 33 knots within 120 nautical miles of the centre.

Forecast position near 25.2S 172.0E at 010000 UTC and near 26.9S 172.9E at 011200 UTC.

All vessels within 300 nautical miles of centre are requested to send reports every three hours. VOS reporting ships use normal channels. Other vessels Fax plus 679 6720190 or email naditcc at met dot gov dot fj.

This warning cancels and replaces warning 029.
______________________

APCEDI will continue to monitor the progress of this system

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator
http://www.afap.org/apcedi/

To donate to AFAP's Disaster Preparedness, Relief and Rehabilitation Programs in Asia and the Pacific, go to http://www.afap.org and click on the "Donate On-Line" icon in the top right-hand corner.

To sign up for AFAP's free APCEDI email service, please go to http://www.afap.org/apcedi/ and register your email address.