APCEDI Alert SP/SI Cyclone Xavier #6-2007: Cyclone Xavier Weakens East of Vanuatu

The RSMC-Nadi Tropical Cyclone Centre and the Joint Typhoon Warning Centre are winding down their advice on Cyclone Xavier, which is now located approximately 200 km east of Maewo and Pentecost.

Overnight, Cyclone Xavier weakened rapidly due to increased shear and lower water temperatures. It is now a weak tropical storm and will likely be downgraded to a tropical depression later today. This continues to be good news for Vanuatu, as it looks likely to miss the major effects of this once powerful cyclone. However, Xavier is still causing rough seas, beach erosion and intermittent squalls especially to eastern islands and east and south-facing coasts.

Forecasters continue to predict a western turn for the storm, and it has in fact started a slow southwesterly turn. This will bring the remnants of Xavier over Northern and Central Vanuatu. This will cause localised heavy rain and squalls, but no major damage is now being forecast although localised flooding and landslides are still possible in areas with intense rainfall.

Even though the storm is weakening residents of Northern and Central Vanuatu Islands especially Santo, Maewo, Ambae, Ambrym, Epi, the Shepherd Islands, and Efate should continue to monitor and heed local Government alerts and listen to news broadcasts for updates. It is possible, although unlikely, that the storm could re-intensify.

CURRENT ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS

VANUATU
Maritime Warning for Rough Seas for all of Vanuatu.

From the RSMC-Nadi Tropical Cyclone Centre

RSMC NADI
Oct 25/1958 UTC 2006 UTC.

Tropical Cyclone Xavier 01F [987hPa] centre was located near 16.0 South 171.0 East at 251800 UTC. Position poor based on MTSAT EIR with animation and recent TRMM/SSMI passes. Cyclone moving southwest at about 05 knots but expected to curve west. Maximum 10-minute average winds near the centre estimated at about 45 knots, decreasing to 30 knots in the next 12 hours.

Xavier has weakened rapidly under strengthening shear past 6 hours. Exposed llcc with convection sheared eastwards about 2 degrees. Dvorak analysis based on sheared pattern yielding a DT=1.5, MET=3.0 and PT=1.5, thus T2.5/3.0/W2.5/24hrs based on Dvorak constraints. Cyclone is gradually turning westwards. Available global models generally agree with further weakening.

FORECAST:
12hrs valid at 260600 UTC near 15.7S 170.1E mov W 05kt with 30kt close to centre.
24hrs valid at 261800 UTC near 15.9S 168.8E mov W 06kt with 20kt close to centre.

OUTLOOK:
36hrs valid at 270600 UTC near 15.5S 167.2E mov W 08kt with 15kt close to centre.
48hrs valid at 271800 UTC near 15.2S 165.7E mov W 07kt with 15kt close to centre.

On its projected track the cyclone is expected to weaken into a depression in the next 6 to 12 hours and is no longer posing a threat to Efate, Erromango and Tanna. A building high pressure system to the south of Vanuatu and New Caledonia is expected to steer the weakening depression westwards over Vanuatu in the next 24 to 36 hours. Expect rain with occasional heavy falls to continue. Fresh to strong and gusty east to southeast winds. Rough to very rough seas and damaging heavy swells.

This will be the final Special Advisory for Vanuatu on Tropical Cyclone Xavier unless the situation changes.

____________________

This will be the last APCEDI report in Cyclone Xavier unless it re-intensifies or otherwise warrents additional information to be reported.


Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator

For the full interactive APCEDI Alerts go to: http://www.afap.org/apcedi/

To donate to AFAP's Disaster Preparedness, Relief and Rehabilitation Programs in Asia and the Pacific, go to http://www.afap.org and click on the "Donate On-Line" icon in the top right-hand corner.

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APCEDI Alert SP/SI Cyclone Xavier #5-2007: Cyclone Xavier Sideswipes Vanuatu

The RSMC-Nadi Tropical Cyclone Centre and the Joint Typhoon Warning Centre continue to issue advice on Cyclone Xavier, which is now located approximately 200 km east of Maewo and Pentecost.

Throughout the day and overnight, Cyclone Xavier continued on its southeast course, and the forecast turn to the south and west never eventuated. This is very good news for Vanuatu, as instead of being directly hit, the cyclone is now sideswiping the island chain to the east. This is causing rough seas, beach erosion and intermittent squalls especially to eastern islands and east-facing coasts, but no major damage.

Xavier is a Category 3 storm on the Saffir Simpson Scale. It is forecast to hold its strength today and then start to gradually weaken as shear intensifies and as it moves over colder waters to the south.

All residents of Northern, Central and Southern Vanuatu Islands especially Santo, Maewo, Ambae, Ambrym, Epi, the Shepherd Islands, Efate, Erromango and Tanna should continue to monitor and heed local Government alerts and listen to news broadcasts for updates. Although a rapid shift in course toward Vanuatu is unlikely, it is not impossible.

The forecast models for Cyclone Xavier continue to be very mixed and contradictory at the moment with rather weak steering currents. Most still predict a southerly turn which could bring the cyclone closer to some of the central and southern Vanuatu islands. The longer term forecast shows a slight turn east, which should be monitored closely by interests in Fiji and Tonga. Hopefully the storm can exit into Southern Ocean between Vanuatu and Fiji causing little harm to either.

All of Vanuatu should remain on a Cyclone Watch, with a Cyclone Warning from Maewo to Efate for all eastern islands. All concerns in Vanuatu should monitor and heed local Government alerts and listen to news broadcasts for updates.

Fiji and Tonga authorities should also be on alert once the cyclone clears Vanuatu. Rough seas should increase in western areas of Fiji throughout today. All interests in the area should monitor and heed local Government alerts and listen to news broadcasts for updates as any northward chance in track could threaten these areas. Early season storms are notoriously Very rough seas will be present throughout the area for the next few days.

CURRENT ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS

VANUATU

Special Advisory/ Cyclone Warning for Espirito Santo, Maewo, Ambae, Pentecost, Malakula, Ambrym, Epi and the Shepherd Islands and Efate and all surrounding smaller islands.
Special Advisory/ Cyclone Watch for all remaining areas of Vanuatu.
Maritime Warning for Rough Seas for all of Vanuatu.

From the RSMC-Nadi Tropical Cyclone Centre

Special Advisory Number ELEVEN for Vanuatu on TC XAVIER issued from RSMC NADI
Oct 24/1342 UTC 2006 UTC.

Tropical Cyclone Xavier 01F [930hPa] centre was located near 14.4 South 170.1 East at 241200 UTC. Position fair based on MTSAT EIR imagery with animation. Cyclone moving southeast at about 8 knots but expected to gradually curve south. Maximum 10-minute average winds near the centre estimated at about 95 knots.

Organisation steady. Cold onvective tops persisting despite some warming in recent imageries. Cloud-filled eye prevails. Outflow good to south but limited elsewhere. Significance of shear increasing. Dvorak analysis based on B eye embedded in W surround gives a DT=5.0, MET=6.0, PT=5.5, thus T5.0/6.0/D0.5/24hrs. SST around 29C. Cyclone
moving southeast under upper northwest flow but expected to gradually turn south under a northeast steering field. Global models generally agree on a gradual curvature towards the south with gradual weakening.

FORECAST:
12hrs valid at 250000 UTC near 16.0S 170.5E mov SE 08kt with 95kt close to centre.
24hrs valid at 251200 UTC near 17.2S 169.9E mov S 07kt with 90kt close to centre.

OUTLOOK:
36hrs valid at 260000 UTC near 17.9S 169.4E mov S 06kt with 90kt close to centre.
48hrs valid at 261200 UTC near 18.7S 168.2E mov SSW 06kt with 80kt close to centre.

On its current track the cyclone may cause damaging gale force winds or stronger during the next 24 to 48 hours over Pentecost, Ambrym, Epi, Espiritu Santo, Gaua [Santa Maria], Aoba, Malekula, Maewo, Efate, Shepherd Group, Eromango, Tanna and nearby smaller islands. Rain occasionally heavy and squally thunderstorms. Damaging heavy swells. Flooding including sea flooding of low-lying coastal areas expected.

The next Special Advisory for Vanuatu on Tropical Cyclone Xavier will be issued around 242000 UTC.

____________________

APCEDI will continue to issue further bulletins on Cyclone Xavier.

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator

For the full interactive APCEDI Alerts go to: http://www.afap.org/apcedi/

To donate to AFAP's Disaster Preparedness, Relief and Rehabilitation Programs in Asia and the Pacific, go to http://www.afap.org and click on the "Donate On-Line" icon in the top right-hand corner.

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APCEDI Alert SP/SI Cyclone Xavier #4-2007: Cyclone Xavier Strengthens East of Banks Islands

The RSMC-Nadi Tropical Cyclone Centre and the Joint Typhoon Warning Centre continue to issue advice on Cyclone Xavier now located about 20 km northwest of Tikopia, Temotu Province, Solomon Islands.

Overnight, Cyclone Xavier passed over Tikopia and is now located approximately 150 km northeast of Mota Lava in the Banks Islands still moving in a south-southeast direction A small tightly wound eye is evident as the storm continues to slowly strengthen. Xavier is now a Category 2-3 storm on the Saffir Simpson Scale. It is forecast to strengthen into a powerful Category 3 storm later today. Xavier is now quite powerful and should the forecast westward turn eventuate, this will bring the storm over Vanuatu with a force capable of producing strong to locally severe damage in and near the eyewall.

All residents of Northern Vanuatu Islands especially the Torres and Banks Islands, Santo, Maewo, Ambae, Ambrym, Epi and the Shepherd Islands should rush cyclone preparations to completion, monitor and heed local Government alerts and listen to news broadcasts for updates.

The forecast models for Cyclone Xavier continue to be very mixed and contradictory at the moment with rather weak steering currents. Data has indicated a westward turn for nearly 24 hours, but that has not occurred yet bringing increasing risk eastward and southwards towards Banks Islands, Maewo, Ambae and Pentecost. Until and if the western turn eventuates, it will be hard to determine its path across Northern Vanuatu. The most recent models showing it passing over Maewo, Ambae and then between Santo and Malakula tomorrow as a Category 3 storm. However, there is increasing divergence about the timing of this western turn.

All of Vanuatu should remain on a Cyclone Watch, with a Cyclone Warning for all Northern Islands, north of Afate. All concerns in Vanuatu should monitor and heed local Government alerts and listen to news broadcasts for updates.

Although the Cyclone is now moving away from the Solomon Islands and the Santa Cruz Group, authorities should remain on alert.. Xavier will continue to generate rough seas for Temotu Province, Rennell and Bellona, and for the weather coasts of Makira and Guadalcanal. All interests in the area should monitor and heed local Government alerts and listen to news broadcasts for updates as any northward chance in track could threaten these areas. Early season storms are notoriously Very rough seas will be present throughout the area for the next few days.

CURRENT ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS

VANUATU

Special Advisory/ Cyclone Warning for Torres and Banks Islands, Espirito Santo, Maewo, Ambae, Pentecost, Malakula, Ambrym, Epi and the Shepherd Islands and all surrounding smaller islands.
Special Advisory/ Cyclone Watch for all remaining areas of Vanuatu.
Maritime Warning for Rough Seas for all of Vanuatu.

SOLOMON ISLANDS

Maritime Warning for Rough Seas for Temotu, Rennell and Bellona, Guadalcanal Weather Coast and Makira Weather Coast


From the RSMC-Nadi Tropical Cyclone Centre

Special Advisory Number EIGHT for Vanuatu on TC XAVIER issued from RSMC NADI
Oct 23/1950 UTC 2006 UTC.

Tropical Cyclone Xavier 01F [945hPa] centre was located near 12.7 South 168.6 East at 231800 UTC. Position good based on MTSAT EIR imagery with animation. Cyclone intensifying. Cyclone moving south-southeast at about 5 knots but expected to curve southwest in the next 24 hours. Maximum 10-minute average winds near the centre estimated at about 85 knots, increasing to 95 knots in the next 12 to 24 hours.

Organisation generally steady with cold convective tops surrounding the eye. Convective bands tightly wrapping around LLCC. Outflow good in all quadrants. Some shear still evident. Dvorak analysis based on B eye embedded in W surround gives a DT=5.0, MET=5.5, PT=5.0, thus T5.5/5.5/D1.0/24hrs. SST around 29 to 30C. Cyclone moving south-southeast under a weak northwest flow but expected to turn southwest in the next 24 hours as a mid-level ridge to east establishes. Global models generally agree on a gradual curvature towards southwest in the next 24 hours with further intensification for at least the next 36 hours before weakening.

FORECAST:
12hrs valid at 240600 UTC near 13.2S 168.9E mov S 05kt with 85kt close to centre.
24hrs valid at 241800 UTC near 13.8S 168.7E mov SSW 03kt with 95kt close to centre.

OUTLOOK:
36hrs valid at 250600 UTC near 14.3S 167.6E mov SW 05kt with 95kt close to centre.
48hrs valid at 251800 UTC near 15.1S 166.7E mov SW 08kt with 95kt close to centre.

On its current track the cyclone may cause destructive storm force winds or stronger during the next 24 to 36 hours over the Banks Islands and Maewo and damaging gales over Torres islands, Espiritu Santo, Aoba, Pentecost, Malekula and Ambrym. Expect frequent heavy rain and squally thunderstorms. Damaging heavy swells. Flooding including sea flooding of low-lying coastal areas expected.

The next Special Advisory for Vanuatu on Tropical Cyclone Xavier will be issued around 240200 UTC.
____________________

APCEDI will continue to issue further bulletins on Cyclone Xavier.

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator

For the full interactive APCEDI Alerts go to: http://www.afap.org/apcedi/

To donate to AFAP's Disaster Preparedness, Relief and Rehabilitation Programs in Asia and the Pacific, go to http://www.afap.org and click on the "Donate On-Line" icon in the top right-hand corner.

To sign up for AFAP's free APCEDI email service, please go to http://www.afap.org/apcedi/ and register your email address.

APCEDI Alert SP/SI Cyclone Xavier #3-2007: Cyclone Xavier Batters Tikopia, Threatens Banks and Torres Islands

The RSMC-Nadi Tropical Cyclone Centre and the Joint Typhoon Warning Centre continue to issue advice on Cyclone Xavier now located about 20 km northwest of Tikopia, Temotu Province, Solomon Islands.

Throughout the day, Cyclone Xavier has slowly wandered slightly east of southwards between Vanikolo and Tikopia Islands. When it was about 120 km east of Vanikolo, it underwent some intense strengthening and formed a clear eye feature. However, this strengthening has again levelled off with the entrainment of dry air, and the eye has become cloud-filled.

Cyclone Xavier is now a borderline Category 1-2 Cyclone on the Saffir Simpson Scale. It could further strengthen into a stronger Category 2 storm tonight as it passes over Tikopia and heads for the Banks Islands in Northern Vanuatu. At the last report, it had increased its forward speed from 4 to 9 knots.

All residents of Tikopia and Northern Vanuatu Islands especially the Torres and Banks Islands, Santi, Maewo and Ambae should rush cyclone preparations to completion, monitor and heed local Government alerts and listen to news broadcasts for updates.

The forecast models for Cyclone Xavier continue to be very mixed and contradictory at the moment with rather weak steering currents. Data has indicated a westward turn for nearly 12 hours, but that has not occurred yet bringing increasing risk eastward to Tikopia and Northeastern Vanuatu. Until the western turn eventuates, it will be hard to determine its path across Northern Vanuatu. More recent models showing it passing over the Banks Islands and into Northern Santo tomorrow as a medium to strong Category 2 Storm.

All of Vanuatu should remain on a Cyclone Watch, with a Cyclone Warning for all Northern Islands, north of Epi and the Shepherd Islands. All concerns in Vanuatu should monitor and heed local Government alerts and listen to news broadcasts for updates.

Although the Cyclone is now moving away from the Solomon Islands and the Santa Cruz Group, authorities should remain on alert as the forecast track is still far from clear. Xavier will continue to generate rough seas for Temotu Province, Rennell and Bellona, and for the weather coasts of Makira and Guadalcanal. All interests in the area should monitor and heed local Government alerts and listen to news broadcasts for updates as any northward chance in track could threaten these areas. Early season storms are notoriously Very rough seas will be present throughout the area for the next few days.

CURRENT ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS

SOLOMON ISLANDS

Cyclone Warning for Tikopia, Temotu Province.
Maritime Warning for Rough Seas for Temotu, Rennell and Bellona, Guadalcanal Weather Coast and Makira Weather Coast

VANUATU

Special Advisory/ Cyclone Warning for Torres and Banks Islands, Espirito Santo, Maewo, Ambae, Pentecost, Malakula, Ambrym, Epi and the Shepherd Islands and all surrounding smaller islands.
Special Advisory/ Cyclone Watch for all remaining areas of Vanuatu.
Maritime Warning for all of Vanuatu.

From the RSMC-Nadi Tropical Cyclone Centre

Special Advisory Number FIVE for Vanuatu on TC XAVIER issued from, RSMC NADI
Oct 23/0141 UTC 2006 UTC.

Tropical Cyclone Xavier 01F [960hPa] centre was located near 11.5 South 168.0 East at 230000 UTC. Position good based on MTSAT EIR/VIS imagery with animation. Cyclone intensifying. Cyclone moving south southeast at about 5 knots but expected curve southwest. Maximum 10-minute average winds near the centre estimated at about 75 knots, increasing to 85 knots in the next 6 to 12 hours.

Cloud filled eye has appeared in the last 6 hours with convective bands tightly wrapped around centre. Outflow good in all quadrants. Xavier is located in a low-shear environment. Dvorak analysis based on off-white eye embedded in black gives a DT of 4.5. MET =4.5 and PT=5.0, thus T4.5/4.5/D1.5/24hrs. SST around 29 to 30C. Cyclone is expected to drift southwest nudged by a weak mid-level ridge to the east. Global models generally agree on a west or southwest track with further intensification.

FORECAST:
12hrs valid at 231200 UTC near 12.1S 167.4E mov SW 04kt with 85kt close to centre. 24hrs valid at 240000 UTC near 12.5S 166.8E mov SW 04kt with 95kt close to centre.

OUTLOOK:
36hrs valid at 241200 UTC near 12.6S 166.2E mov WSW 03kt with 100kt close to centre.
48hrs valid at 250000 UTC near 13.2S 165.6E mov SW 04kt with 100kt close to centre.

On its current track the cyclone is expected to cause damaging gale force winds during the next 24 to 48 hours over the Torres and Banks Islands. If Xavier continues on a more southwest track, then northern parts of Espiritu Santo and Maewo are likely to experience damaging gale force winds in the next 24 to 48 hours. Expect frequent heavy rain and squally thunderstorms. Damaging heavy swells. Flooding including sea flooding of coastal areas of these islands.

The next Special Advisory for Vanuatu on Tropical Cyclone Xavier will be issued around 230800 UTC.

____________________

APCEDI will continue to issue further bulletins on Cyclone Xavier.

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator
http://www.afap.org/apcedi/

To donate to AFAP's Disaster Preparedness, Relief and Rehabilitation Programs in Asia and the Pacific, go to http://www.afap.org and click on the "Donate On-Line" icon in the top right-hand corner.

To sign up for AFAP's free APCEDI email service, please go to http://www.afap.org/apcedi/ and register your email address.

APCEDI Alert SP/SI Cyclone Xavier #2-2007: Cyclone Xavier threatens Vanuatu

The RSMC-Nadi Tropical Cyclone Centre and the Joint Typhoon Warning Centre continue to issue advice on Cyclone Xavier that formed very quickly over Temotu Province earlier yesterday just east of the main Santa Cruz Islands.

Overnight Xavier has meandered slowly east of Utupua Island in the Santa Cruz Group. Reports from the Santa Cruz Group this morning indicated heavy rain and gales overnight and continuing particularly on Utupua and Vanikolo, but no major damage so far other than some branches and leaves down. Some crop damage and minor flooding are still possible into today.

Cyclone Xavier is approximately 100 km east of Utupua Island in the Santa Cruz Group moving in a east-southeasterly direction. On its current forecast trajectory, it will likely pass over or near to the Torres and Banks as a Category 1 storm on the Saffir Simpson Scale. All residents of Northern Vanuatu Islands especially the Torres and Banks Islands, Santi, Maewo and Ambae should rush cyclone preparations to completion, monitor and heed local Government alerts and listen to news broadcasts for updates.

Residents of the Santa Cruz Islands especially Utupua and Vanikolo should continue to be vigilant while the cyclone is in the area. Very rough seas will be present throughout the area for the next few days.

The forecast models for Cyclone Xavier are very mixed and contradictory at the moment. However there is increasing consolidation of data showing the storm heading into Northern Vanuatu during the day and gaining strength. All of Vanuatu should now be on a Cyclone Watch, with a Cyclone Warning for all Northern Islands, north of Epi and the Shepherd Islands. All concerns in Vanuatu should monitor and heed local Government alerts and listen to news broadcasts for updates.

Although the Cyclone is now moving away from the Solomon Islands. Rennell and Bellona, should remain on alert as the forecast track is still far from clear. Xavier will continue to generate rough seas for the area and for the weather coasts of Makira and Guadalcanal. All interests in the area should monitor and heed local Government alerts and listen to news broadcasts for updates as any northward chance in track could threaten these areas. Early season storms are notoriously difficult to predict.

CURRENT ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS

SOLOMON ISLANDS

Cyclone Warning for Temotu Province including all the Santa Cruz Islands.
Marine Warning for Temotu, Rennell and Bellona, Guadalcanal Weather Coast and Makira Weather Coast

VANUATU

Special Advisory/ Cyclone Warning for Torres and Banks Islands, Espirito Santo, Maewo, Ambae, Pentecost, Malakula, Ambrym and all surrounding smaller islands.
Special Advisory/ Cyclone Watch for all remaining areas of Vanuatu.
Maritime Warning for all of Vanuatu.

From the RSMC-Nadi Tropical Cyclone Centre

Special Advisory Number FOUR for Vanuatu on TC XAVIER issued from RSMC NADI
Oct 22/2058 UTC 2006 UTC.

Tropical Cyclone Xavier 01F [970hPa] centre was located near 11.0 South 167.8 East at 221800 UTC. Position poor based on MTSAT EIR imagery with animation. Cyclone intensifying. Cyclone moving east southeast at about 5 knots but expected curve west or southwest. Cyclone intensifying. Maximum 10-minute average winds near the centre estimated at about 65 knots, increasing to 75 knots in the next 12 hours.

Organisation continues to improve. Recent SSM/I passes indicate tight bands wrapping around a developing eye. Outflow good in all quadrants. Xavier is maintained in a low-shear environment. Dvorak analysis based on embedded centre yielding DT of 5.0. MET =4.0 and PT=4.5, thus T4.5/4.5/D2.0/24hrs based on Dvorak constraints. SST around 29 to 30C. Cyclone is expected to drift west-southwest nudged by a weak mid-level ridge to the east. Global models generally agree on a west or southwest track with further intensification.

FORECAST:
12hrs valid at 230600 UTC near 11.5S 167.1E mov SW 05kt with 75kt close to centre. 24hrs valid at 231800 UTC near 12.0S 166.6E mov SW 04kt with 80kt close to centre.

OUTLOOK:
36hrs valid at 240600 UTC near 12.3S 166.0E mov WSW 04kt with 90kt close to centre.
48hrs valid at 241800 UTC near 12.5S 165.4E mov WSW 03kt with 100kt close to centre.

On its current track the cyclone is expected to cause damaging gale force winds in the next 24 to 48 hours over the Torres and Banks Islands. If Xavier continues on a more southwest track, then northern parts of Espiritu Santo and Maewo are likely to experience damaging gale force winds in the next 24 to 48 hours. Expect frequent heavy rain and squally thunderstorms. Damaging heavy swells. Flooding including sea flooding of coastal areas of these islands.

The next Special Advisory for Vanuatu on Tropical Cyclone Xavier will be issued around 230200 UTC.

VANUATU: PLEASE ACKNOWLEDGE RECEIPT OF THIS MESSAGE.
____________________

APCEDI will continue to issue further bulletins on Cyclone Xavier.

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator
http://www.afap.org/apcedi/

To donate to AFAP's Disaster Preparedness, Relief and Rehabilitation Programs in Asia and the Pacific, go to http://www.afap.org and click on the "Donate On-Line" icon in the top right-hand corner.

To sign up for AFAP's free APCEDI email service, please go to http://www.afap.org/apcedi/ and register your email address.

APCEDI Alert SP/SI Cyclone Xavier #1-2007: Cyclone Xavier forms over Eastern Solomon Islands

Cyclone Season has started early this year. The RSMC-Nadi Tropical Cyclone Centre and the Joint Typhoon Warning Centre have started to issue advice on Cyclone Xavier that formed very quickly over Temotu Province earlier today just east of the main Santa Cruz Islands.

Cyclone Xavier is about 150-180 km east of the Nendo and Utupua Islands moving in a west-southwesterly direction. On its current forecast trajectory, it will likely pass over or to the south Utupua and Vanikolo Islands tonight as a Category 1 storm on the Saffir Simpson Scale. All residents of the Santa Cruz Islands should rush cyclone preparations to completion, monitor and heed local Government alerts and listen to news broadcasts for updates.

On its current course Cyclone Xavier should pass well to the south of Rennell and Bellona, but it will likely generate rough seas for the area and for the weather coasts of Makira and Guadalcanal. All interests in the area should monitor and heed local Government alerts and listen to news broadcasts for updates as any northward chance in track could threaten these areas.

Residents of the Northern Islands of Vanuatu especially the Torres and Banks Islands should also keep on alert and be careful of rough seas. Residents in the northernmost Torres Islands should be ready to rush cyclone preparations to a speedy completion should the Government issue advice.

Once Cyclone Xavier clears into the Coral Sea it will continue to pose a threat to island states of the region, and as such should be monitored carefully. Early season storms are notoriously difficult to predict.

CURRENT ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS

SOLOMON ISLANDS

Cyclone Warning for Temotu Province including all the Santa Cruz Islands.
Cyclone Watch for Rennell and Bellona
Marine Warning for Temotu, Rennell and Bellona, Guadalcanal Weather Coast and Makira Weather Coast

VANUATU

Special Advisory/ Cyclone Watch for Torres and Banks Island and Northern Espirito Santo Island.

From the RSMC-Nadi Tropical Cyclone Centre

Special Advisory Number TWO for Vanuatu on TC Xavier issued from RSMC NADI
Oct 22/0736 UTC 2006 UTC.

Tropical Cyclone Xavier 01F [985hPa] centre was located near 11.0 South 167.2 East at 220600 UTC. Position fair based on MTSAT EIR imagery with animation. Cyclone intensifying. Cyclone moving west 06 knots. Maximum 10-minute average winds near the centre estimated at about 50 knots, increasing to 55 knots in the next 12 hours.

Organisation continues to steadily improve with outflow good in all quadrants. Xavier is located in the vicinity of the 250 hPa ridge in a low sheared environment. Dvorak analysis based on shear pattern yielding DT of 3.5. MET and PT agree with T3.5/3.5/D1.5/24hrs. SST around 29 to 30C. Cyclone is expected to steer westwards into decreasing environmental shear in response to a developing mid-level ridge to the east. Global models generally agree on a west or southwest track with further intensification.

Xavier is currently located about 173 miles north of Vanua Lava and 270 miles north of Espiritu Santo. If the cyclone turns more south or southwest, Banks Islands and Torres Islands can expect damaging gale force winds in the next 12 hours. Damaging heavy falls and flooding of northern coastal areas.

The next Special Advisory for Vanuatu on Tropical Cyclone Xavier will be issued around 221400 UTC.

____________________

APCEDI will continue to issue further bulletins on Cyclone Xavier.

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator
http://www.afap.org/apcedi/

To donate to AFAP's Disaster Preparedness, Relief and Rehabilitation Programs in Asia and the Pacific, go to http://www.afap.org and click on the "Donate On-Line" icon in the top right-hand corner.

To sign up for AFAP's free APCEDI email service, please go to http://www.afap.org/apcedi/ and register your email address.