APCEDI ALERT EQ-SSEA #10, 2004: Series of Earthquakes and Tsunamis Devastate Wide Area of South and Southeast Asia

Updated Information and Death Tolls

Death tolls continue to climb in Sumatra's Aceh Province where the full scale of the disaster is finally being revealed as more remote areas are now being accessed. Death tolls in other nations are still increasing but more moderately. With such a disaster, it is now clear that the final death tolls will never be fully known as many bodies would have been washed to sea or buried deep in debris in remote areas.

However, the following figures provide a good basic source of information. These figures are from five primary sources: OCHA, USAID, BBC, Agence France-Presse and the Indian Government. These figures reflect the averages being provided by the above sources.

Sumatra and off shore islands, 79,940 dead, Death toll rates are highly variable at the moment but the overall trend is unfortunetly upward. With information coming in from affected villages of the Northwest Coast of Aceh Province south of Banda Aceh, the toll has risen dramatically. The town of Meulaboh and others south of Banda Aceh have finally been reached by relief workers and media, and these towns were found to be almost completely destroyed. Aceh Province has about 90% of the casualties with Northern Sumatra Province with 10%.

Sri Lanka, 25,000-27,268 dead; 483,991 displaced persons, 8,602 injured, and 4,028 missing (OCHA). Again Death toll rates are highly variable but are beginning to slowly stabilise. Highest casualty rates are from the East Coast cities of Trincomalee and Batticaloa and the South Coast cities of Hambantota and Galle. Affected Areas Map

INDIA, 7200-8000 dead; 3000 plus missing as follows (Latest GOI figures):
Tamil Nadu; 6202 dead; hundreds still missing Chennai (Madras), Velankunni and Nagappattinam areas hardest hit,
Southern Andhra Pradesh, 106 dead, 22 missing; Krishna , Guntur , Prakasam and Nellore Districts hardest hit.
Pondicherry enclaves 548 dead;
Southern Kerala 168 dead; Southern Districts including Kollam, Alleppy and Alappuzha Districts hardest hit.
Andaman and Nicobar Islands, India 712 dead, 3000 missing, 5677 displaced; toll likely to rise as missing are not found; severe to catastrophic damage throughout island chains. Car Nicobar and Great Nicobar Islands particularly hard hit.

Thailand, 4,510 dead, most casualties from Phuket and Phi Phi Islands and along the peninsular west coast including Krabi area. Especially hard hit on Phuket Island was Khao Lak National Park and surrounding beaches which had many resort hotels destroyed and also had many campers and more rustic style coastal hostels.

Burma, 90-100 dead, most damage in the Irrawaddy Delta and coastal towns of the Tenassarim Peninsula; 36 deaths reported in Pyinzalu Island near Labutta town and another 20 from the Thanintharyi Division in the peninsula. The Government is now reporting that 17 villages have been completely destroyed, and as such they expect the death toll to significantly increase (AFP). Apparently there is widespread devastation on the Co Co Islands but teams area just reaching there, plus also casualties now reported from Rakhine State. (AFP). Burma's death toll has not been officially raised in the last 2 days, and many scientists and aid groups are now claiming the state of devastation in affected areas is far greater than being admitted. They are pressing the Burmese Government for full details.

Maldives 67 dead; 61 missing; damage throughout country.

Malaysia, 65 dead, 50 missing, Most casualties in Penang and Coastal Kedah State in Northwest.

Bangladesh 2 dead; overall damage light.

Somalia 120 dead, 35 missing, 50,000 homeless with the majority of destruction along the Puntland Coast and on Hafun Island.

Madagascar 100 dead or missing in and around the coastal city of Manakara, and 1,200 homeless. A Red Cross Mission left today from the capital, Atananarivo, to investigate the situation and care for injured and homeless. Updates can be found from the Madagascar Tribune

Tanzania10 dead.

Seychelles 3 dead.

Kenya 1 dead.

Many of these figures will still continue to rise as reports from outlying and cut-off areas eventually come in.

Very good updates on relief efforts can be found on UN's Relief Web.

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator
http://www.afap.org/
AFAP Appeal Hotline: 1-800-007-308

APCEDI ALERT EQ-SSEA #9, 2004: Series of Earthquakes and Tsunamis Devastate Wide Area of South and Southeast Asia

Updated Information and Death Tolls

Death tolls continue to climb especially in Sumatra's Aceh Province where the full scale of the disaster is finally being revealed as more remote areas are now being accessed. The following death toll information is from five primary sources: OCHA, USAID, BBC, Agence France-Presse and the Indian Government. These figures reflect the averages being provided by the above sources.

Sumatra and off shore islands, 32,490-45,268 dead, Death toll rates are highly variable and fluctuating at the moment. With information coming in from affected villages of the Northwest Coast of Aceh Province south of Banda Aceh, the toll has risen dramatically. The town of Meulaboh has finally been reached by relief workers and media and was found to be almost completely destroyed. Aceh Province has about 90% of the casualties with Northern Sumatra Province with about 10%.

Sri Lanka, 22,493 dead;483,991 displaced persons, 8,602 injured, and 4,028 missing (OCHA). Again Death toll rates are highly variable but are beginning to slowly stabilise. Highest casualty rates are from the East Coast cities of Trincomalee and Batticaloa and the South Coast cities of Hambantota and Galle. Affected Areas Map

INDIA, 7000-8000 dead as follows (Latest GOI figures):
Tamil Nadu; 3500-3700 dead with Chennai (Madras), Velankunni and Nagappattinam areas hardest hit,
Southern Andhra Pradesh, 80-100 dead, many hundreds still missing, Krishna , Guntur , Prakasam and Nellore Districts hardest hit.
Pondicherry enclaves 400-450 dead.
Southern Kerala 150 dead; Southern Districts including Alappuzha District hardest hit.
Andaman and Nicobar Islands, India 3000 dead, toll likely to rise as assessments are just beginning; severe to catastrophic damage throughout island chains. Car Nicobar and Great Nicobar Islands particularly hard hit.

Thailand, 1,829 dead, most casualties from Phuket and Phi Phi Islands and along the peninsular west coast including Krabi area. Especially hard hit on Phuket Island was Khao Lak National Park and surrounding beaches which had many resort hotels destroyed and also had many campers and more rustic style coastal hostels.

Burma, 90-100 dead, most damage in the Irrawaddy Delta and coastal towns of the Tenassarim Peninsula; 36 deaths reported in Pyinzalu Island near Labutta town and another 20 from the Thanintharyi Division in the peninsula. The Government is now reporting that 17 villages have been completely destroyed, and as such they expect the death toll to significantly increase (AFP). Apparently there is widespread devastation on the Co Co Islands but teams area just reaching there, plus also casualties now reported from Rakhine State. (AFP)

Maldives 64 dead; 61 missing; damage throughout country.

Malaysia, 65 dead, 50 missing, Most casualties in Penang and Coastal Kedah State in Northwest.

Bangladesh 2 dead; overall damage light.

Somalia 110 dead with the Puntland Coast hardest hit along with Hafun Island.

Madagascar 100 dead in and around from the coastal city of Manakara, and 1,200 homeless. A Red Cross Mission left today from the capital, Atananarivo, to investigate the situation and care for injured and homeless. Updates can be found from the Madagascar Tribune

Tanzania10 dead.

Seychelles 3 dead.

Kenya 1 dead.

Many of these figures will still continue to rise as reports from outlying and cut-off areas eventually come in.

Very good updates on relief efforts can be found on UN's Relief Web.

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator
http://www.afap.org/
AFAP Appeal Hotline: 1-800-007-308

APCEDI ALERT EQ-SSEA #8, 2004: Series of Earthquakes and Tsunamis Devastate Wide Area of South and Southeast Asia

Updated Information and Death Tolls

The death tolls on Sumatra and Sri Lanka have risen dramatically overnight as information continues to come in as authorities and relief workers from more remote areas. Also deaths in the wake of the tsunamis in Africa have now been reported for Somalia, Madagascar, Kenya, Tanzania, Seychelles, Mauritius and Reunion. The following death toll information is from five primary sources: OCHA, USAID, BBC, Agence France-Presse and the Indian Government. These figures reflect the averages being provided by the above sources.

Sumatra and off shore islands, 23,000-27,174 dead, Death toll rates are highly variable and fluctuating at the moment. The BBC is reporting the higher figure, and this has according to BBC news reports been confirmed by the Government. With information coming in from affected villages of the Northwest Coast of Aceh Province south of Banda Aceh, this sort of death toll is quite probable and may even rise as more isolated areas are reached. Most casualties are in Aceh and Northern Sumatra Provinces.

Sri Lanka, 13,000-18,706 dead; Again Death toll rates are highly variable and fluctuating at the moment. The BBC is reporting the higher figure. Highest casualty rates are from the East Coast cities of Trincomalee and Batticaloa and the South Coast cities of Hambantota and Galle. Affected Areas Map


INDIA, 7000-8000 dead as follows (Latest GOI figures):
Tamil Nadu; 3500-3700 dead with Chennai (Madras), Velankunni and Nagappattinam areas hardest hit,
Southern Andhra Pradesh, 80-100 dead, many hundreds still missing, Krishna , Guntur , Prakasam and Nellore Districts hardest hit.
Pondicherry enclaves 400-450 dead.
Southern Kerala 150 dead; Southern Districts including Alappuzha District hardest hit.
Andaman and Nicobar Islands, India 3000 dead, toll likely to rise as assessments are just beginning; severe to catastrophic damage throughout island chains.

Thailand, 1,400-1,600 dead, most casualties from Phuket and Phi Phi Islands and along the peninsular west coast including Krabi area. Especially hard hit on Phuket Island was Khao Lak National Park and surrounding beaches which had many campers and more rustic style coastal hostels.

Burma, 90-100 dead, most damage in the Irrawaddy Delta and coastal towns of the Tenassarim Peninsula; 36 deaths reported in Pyinzalu Island near Labutta town and another 20 from the Thanintharyi Division in the peninsula. The Government is now reporting that 17 villages have been completely destroyed, and as such they expect the death toll to significantly increase (AFP). Apparently there is widespread devastation on the Co Co Islands but teams area just reaching there, plus also casualties now reported from Rakhine State. (AFP)

Maldives 60-70 dead; damage throughout country.

Malaysia, 44-53 dead, Most casualties in Penang and Coastal Kedah State in Northwest.

Bangladesh 2 dead; overall damage light.

Somalia Deutsche Presse Agentur is now reporting 100 dead in Somalia with the Puntland Coast hardest hit. News is coming in of damage from Kenya, Mauritius and the Seychelles islands but no reports of death as yet.

Madagascar 100 dead, reports just coming in from BBC.

Tanzania10 dead.

Seychelles 3 dead.

Kenya 1 dead.

Many of these figures will still continue to rise as reports from outlying and cut-off areas eventually come in.

Very good updates on relief efforts can be found on UN's Relief Web.

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator
http://www.afap.org/
AFAP Appeal Hotline: 1-800-007-308

APCEDI ALERT EQ-SSEA #7, 2004: Series of Earthquakes and Tsunamis Devastate Wide Area of South and Southeast Asia

Updated Information and Death Tolls

Information continues to come in as authorities and relief workers begin to access more remote areas. Deutsche Presse Agentur is now reporting 100 dead in Somalia. There are estimates from Senior Indonesian officials that the death toll on Sumatra could greatly increase once all villages of the Northwest Coast of Aceh Province south of Banda Aceh are assessed.
The following death toll information is from five primary sources: OCHA, USAID, BBC, Agence France-Presse and the Indian Government. These figures reflect the averages being provided by the above sources.

Sumatra and off shore islands, 4900-5000 dead, Most casualties in Aceh and Northern Sumatra Provinces. Government estimates report that the death toll will rise much higher once affected villages of the Northwest Coast of Aceh Province south of Banda Aceh are assessed.

Sri Lanka, 10000-13000 dead; Highest casualty figures from the East Coast cities of Trincomalee and Batticaloa and the South Coast cities of Hambantota and Galle. The death tolls being reported from Sri Lanka are still quite widely varied and undependable.

INDIA, 3000-3200 dead as follows:
Tamil Nadu; 3500-3700 dead with Chennai (Madras), Velankunni and Nagappattinam areas hardest hit,
Southern Andhra Pradesh, 80-100 dead, many hundreds still missing, Krishna , Guntur , Prakasam and Nellore Districts hardest hit.
Pondicherry enclaves 400-450 dead.
Southern Kerala 150 dead; Southern Districts including Alappuzha District hardest hit.
Andaman and Nicobar Islands, India 3000 dead, toll likely to rise as assessments are just beginning; severe to catastrophic damage throughout island chains.

Thailand, 900-1000 dead, most casualties from Phuket and Phi Phi Islands and along the peninsular west coast including Krabi area.

Maldives 50-60 dead; damage throughout country.

Burma, 60 dead, most damage in the Irrawaddy Delta and coastal towns of the Tenassarim Peninsula; 36 deaths reported in Pyinzalu Island near Labutta town and another 20 from the Thanintharyi Division in the peninsula, but still very little confirmable news has been released by official sources.

Malaysia, 44-53 dead, Most casualties in Penang and Coastal Kedah State in Northwest.

Bangladesh 2 dead; overall damage light.

SomaliaDeutsche Presse Agentur is now reporting 100 dead in Somalia with the Puntland Coast hardest hit. News is coming in of damage from Kenya, Mauritius and the Seychelles islands but no reports of death as yet.


Some of these figures will still continue to rise as reports from outlying and cut-off areas eventually come in.

Very good updates on relief efforts are now being provided on the UN's Relief Web.

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator
http://www.afap.org/apcedi/

APCEDI ALERT EQ-SSEA #6, 2004: Series of Earthquakes and Tsunamis Devastate Wide Area of South and Southeast Asia

Updated Information and Death Tolls

Death tolls are beginning to stabilise in some countries although they continue to mount in Sri Lanka. Information from Burma is still very sketchy with no official information yet. The situation in the Andamans and Nicobar, as well as parts of Sumatra's Aceh Province are still likely under-reported due to the inability to get reliable information out of these more remote areas. The following death tolls are from five primary sources: OCHA, USAID, BBC, Agence France-Presse and the Indian Government. These figures reflect the averages being provided by the above sources.

Sumatra and off shore islands, 4500-4800 dead, Most casulaties in Aceh and Northern Sumatra Provinces.

Sri Lanka, 10000-13000 dead; Highest casualty figures from the East Coast cities of Trincomalee and Batticaloa and the South Coast cities of Hambantota and Galle. The death tolls being reported from Sril Lanka are now becoming quite widely varied and undependable.

India, 3000-3200 dead, 2300-2800 from Tamil Nadu with Chennai (Madras) and Nagappattinam areas hardest hit, 50-100 from Southern Andhra Pradesh including Pondicherry enclaves and 100-150 from Kerala.

Andaman and Nicobar Islands, India 3000 dead, toll likely to rise; severe to catastrophic damage throughout island chains.

Thailand, 866 dead, most casualties from Phuket and Phi Phi Islands and along the peninsular west coast including Krabi area.

Maldives 50-60 dead; damage throughout country.

Burma, 60 dead, most damage in the Irrawaddy Delta and coastal towns of the Tenassarim Peninsula; 36 deaths reported in Pyinzalu Island near Labutta town and another 20 from the Thanintharyi Division in the peninsula, but still very little confirmable news has been released by official sources.

Malaysia, 44-53 dead, Most casualties in Penang and Coastal Kedah State in Northwest.

Bangladesh 2 dead; overall damage light.

Some of these figures will still continue to rise as reports from outlying and cut-off areas eventually come in.

Very good updates on relief efforts are now being provided on the UN's Relief Web.

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator
http://www.afap.org/apcedi/

APCEDI ALERT 04F #6, 2004: Tropical Storm Judy Exits French Polynesia

Tropical Storm Judy has exited French Polynesian Territory to the south leaving moderate localised damage to crops and structures in both the Tuamotu and Austral Groups. The Anaa Atoll in the Tuamotu Group was particularly affected. The storm has now entered the Southern Ocean and become extratropical.

One person drowned off Tahiti and another is missing, feared drowned off Moorea. All warnings have now been discontinued. The local authorities and the French Government are taking care of the relief effort to affected areas. Additional news on the relief effort can be found on TahitiPresse

This will be the last APCEDI Alert in this system.


Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator
http://www.afap.org/apcedi/

APCEDI ALERT EQ-SSEA #5, 2004: Series of Earthquakes and Tsunamis Devastate Wide Area of South and Southeast Asia

Updated Information and Death Tolls

Death tolls continue to mount around the region. The following are revised, interim death tolls from three primary sources: BBC, Agence France-Presse and the Indian Government. These figures will be revised as more information comes in.

Sumatra and off shore islands, 4500 dead, Most casulaties in Aceh and Northern Sumatra Provinces.

Sri Lanka, 5500-6000 dead; Highest casualty figures from the East Coast cities of Trincomalee and Batticaloa and the South Coast cities of Hambantota and Galle.

India, 3000-3200 dead, 2800 from Tamil Nadu with Chennai (Madras) area hard hit, 50-100 from Southern Andhra Pradesh including Pondicherry enclaves and 100-150 from Kerala.

Andaman and Nicobar Islands, India 3000 dead, toll likely to rise; severe to catastrophic damage throughout island chains.

Thailand, 839 dead, most casualties from Phuket and Phi Phi Islands and along the peninsular west coast including Krabi area.

Maldives 40-60 dead; damage throughout country.

Burma, 50 dead, most damage in the Irrawaddy Delta and coastal towns of the Tenassarim Peninsula; 36 deaths reported in Pyinzalu Island near Labutta town, but still very little confirmable news has been released by official sources.

Malaysia, 42 dead, Most casualties in Penang and Coastal Kedah State in Northwest.

Bangladesh 2 dead; overall damage light.

Many of these figures will still continue to rise as reports from outlying and cut-off areas eventually come in.

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator
http://www.afap.org/apcedi/

APCEDI ALERT 04F #5, 2004: Tropical Storm Judy Kills 1 and Begins to Move out of the Austral Group

Tropical Storm Judy has passed through the Austral Group and continues to weaken as it moves south into cooler water. One surfer has died off Tahiti and another is missing off Moorea in the wake of the huge swells caused by the storm. Judy has managed to cause widespread low-level damage along its path with areas of moderate damage to homes and crops near the passage of the storm's centre.


FROM FIJI METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE
http://www.met.gov.fj/aifs_prods/10140.txt

MARINE WEATHER BULLETIN FOR ISLANDS AREA, 5N TO 25S BETWEEN 160E AND 180 AND EQ TO 25S BETWEEN 180 AND 120W. ISSUED BY FIJI METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE Dec 262000 UTC.

PART 1 : WARNING Gale Warning 049 issued from RSMC NADI Dec 26/1924 UTC 2004. COPY OF GALE WARNING 231 ISSUED FROM WELLINGTON DEC 26/1845 UTC 2004. Tropical Cyclone JUDY centre [993 hPa] was located near 27 decimal 0 South 147 decimal 5 West at 261800 UTC. Position Fair. Repeat position 27.0S 147.5W at 261800 UTC. Cyclone moving south at about 15 knots but expected to turn southsoutheast. Expect sustained winds of 40 knots close to centre. Expect winds over 33 knots within 120 miles of centre in the northwestern semicircle and within 210 miles of centre in the southeastern semicircle. Forecast position near 29.0S 146.5W at 270600 UTC. and near 31.0S 145.0W at 271800 UTC. Ships within 300 miles of centre are requested to send reports every three hours to RMC, Wellington. VOS reporting ships use normal channels. Other vessels fax plus 679 6720190 or email naditcc at met dot gov dot fj.This warning cancels and replaces
warning 048.

FROM THE LOCAL AUTHORITIES VIA TAHITIPRESSE
The local authorities in Papeete have issued the following meteorological advice: http://www.tahitipresse.pf/

PREVISIONS PAR ARCHIPEL VALABLES JUSQU ’A LUNDI SOIR.

Attention : l’avis de phénomène exceptionnel n°10 est en cours et signale notamment une dépression baptisée « JUDY » qui intéresse l’archipel des Australes avec des vents de 60 à 70 km/h en moyenne et des rafales autour de 100 km/h.
Par ailleurs, une houle de nord-ouest de 2m à 2m50 arrive toujours sur le nord du Territoire. Elle provoquera une montée des eaux dans les lagons exposés des îles de la Société et des Tuamotu de l’ouest et du nord, avec de forts courants près des passes.

TUAMOTU ET GAMBIER : Le ciel est toujours nuageux sur la majeure partie des Tuamotu. Cependant les averses ou grains sont moins nombreux que ces derniers jours. Ils se déclenchent cette nuit et demain vers Tematangi, Hao, Makemo et Anaa, Fakarava, Takaroa, Ahe, Rangiroa et vers Mataiva, Tikehau. L’amélioration qui débute sur l’est de l’archipel gagne les régions du centre et de l’ouest demain, réduisant l’instabilité. Lundi l’alizé se rétablit avec par contre beaucoup de nuages élevés.
Aux Gambier le ciel reste très chargé pendant ces deux jours, avec quelques averses isolées.
Vent de Nord-est à Nord assez fort, avec encore des rafales jusqu’à 70/80 km/h, faiblissant pour devenir modéré à assez fort demain. Il viendra à l’est modéré, demain soir sur le nord de l’archipel et Lundi sur le reste de l’archipel et ainsi qu’aux Gambier.
Mer forte cette nuit et demain et agitée lundi. Houle longue de nord-ouest de 2m à 2m50. Les creux peuvent encore atteindre 3 à 4m sur le sud de l’archipel.

AUSTRALES :De Tubuai à Raivavae jusqu’à Rapa, le temps reste maussade avec un ciel le plus souvent couvert, des averses et grains passagers.
De Rurutu à Rimatara et Maria le ciel est plutôt bien dégagé et les averses plus isolées.
Sur les Iles du nord, vent modéré à assez fort de sud-est tournant sud-ouest à ouest dimanche en faiblissant.
A Rapa, vent de nord-est assez fort à fort, venant au nord dimanche. Les rafales peuvent atteindre 90/100 km/h et même dépasser les 100Km/Heure.
Mer forte à très forte. Houle de secteur nord 2m à 3m, se croisant avec la mer du vent pour donner des creux de 3m à 3m50 en général voire 4à 5m de Raivavae à Rapa.

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator
http://www.afap.org/apcedi/

APCEDI ALERT FFNC #1, 2004; Forest Fires Devastate Areas of New Caledonia

Forest Fires burned over 1000 hectares in residential areas of Dumbea and Paita on the outskirts of the capital Noumea. Several residences were threatened during the conflagration. A persistent drought has led to the burning of 40,000 hectares of forest since October. Residents and fire authorities are calling for more fire-fighting equipment and training for the main island, Grande Terre.

The following AFP article provides an overview of the situation:

Feux de forêts en Nouvelle-Calédonie: plus de 1.000 hectares brûlés dans la banlieue de Nouméa

(AFP)  -  Plus de 1.000 hectares de forêts ont brûlé au cours du week-end de Noël dans la banlieue de Nouméa, mettant une nouvelle fois en évidence le manque de moyens de lutte en Nouvelle-Calédonie où plusieurs dizaines de milliers d'hectares ont été dévastés depuis octobre, ont indiqué lundi les pompiers.

Deux fronts d'incendies ont touché les communes de Dumbéa et de Païta, menaçant plusieurs dizaines d'habitations.
Les pompiers des deux municipalités ont reçu le renfort de leurs collègues de Nouméa ainsi que des gendarmes et des habitants, tandis que les deux hélicoptères bombardiers d'eau de l'archipel ont multiplié les rotations pendant plusieurs heures.

Depuis le mois d'octobre, plus de 40.000 hectares de forêts, selon les pompiers, ont brûlé en Nouvelle-Calédonie, frappée par une sécheresse qui devrait se poursuivre jusqu'en février.

Face à ce sinistre, les pompiers ont dénoncé le manque de moyens disponibles en Nouvelle-Calédonie, où on ne recense que 250 pompiers, deux hélicoptères bombardiers d'eau et une dizaine de camions-citernes.
Début décembre, une mission d'experts métropolitains a été dépêchée dans l'archipel par les ministères de l'Intèrieur et de l'Outre-mer. Face à l'insuffisance des moyens, elle a notamment recommandé l'envoi de commandos aéroportés de la sécurité civile pour appuyer les équipes locales.
Elle a cependant estimé que les canadairs, demandés par les pompiers de Nouvelle-Calédonie, n'étaient pas adaptés.

end

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator
http://www.afap.org/apcedi/

APCEDI ALERT EQ-SSEA #4, 2004: Series of Earthquakes and Tsunamis Devastate Wide Area of South and Southeast Asia

Misinformation about this Disaster

(1) This disaster is being continually being reported as completely unprecedented and not within the realm of being able to have been generally foreseen, but this is not the case.

Tsunamis generated by the eruption of Krakatoa in 1883 killed over 36,000 people on Sumatra and Java, with tsunamis affecting the wider area in the Andaman Sea.

The December 1881 quake registering 7.9 in the Nicobars and subsequent aftershocks in the 1880s produced notable tsunamis throughout the Bay of Bengal. This is well documented in the following paper in the JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH, VOL. 108, NO. B4, 2215, doi:10.1029/2002JB001941, 2003:

7.9 Car Nicobar earthquake estimated from tsunamis recorded in the Bay of Bengal
Modesto Ortiz, Departamento de Oceanografia, Centro de Investigacion Cientifica y Educacion Superior de Ensenada, Ensenada, Baja California, Mexico
Roger Bilham, Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences and Department of Geological Sciences, University of Colorado, Boulder, Colorado, USA

This article carries a very complete bibliography about tsunamis in this region.

From historical evidence throughout the 1800s-1900s, it is like that a major tsunami event in this area will occur once or twice in every century on average. Furthermore, any number of papers and studies have called for an Indian Ocean Tsunami Warning Mechanism, and this has been a topic at a number of seismic hazard conferences, but the donor communities have not regarded it as a priority despite the historic record. While this current incident is particularly large and the damage is more widespread than has been seen in recent times, the probability of this type of event in this region has been known for some time.

2) This current event is not relegated to the Bay of Bengal and as such should not be referred to as a Bay of Bengal disaster as some major relief groups are doing. This event covers the entire Bay of Bengal, Andaman Sea and the Laccadive Sea and the general open Indian Ocean and as such, should be reported as a major South and Southeast Asia regional event. Even the BBC has been referring to this as a Southeast Asia Disaster, but it has clearly affected two major geographic areas: South Asia and Southeast Asia. It is critical to the understanding of the very widespread and destructive nature of tsunami hazards to properly define the greater regional context of this disaster.

3) Various people, even some seismologists, have stated that the 8.1 quake west of the Auckland Islands, New Zealand and north of Macquarie Island on December 23rd either has or has not contributed to this series of quakes in Asia. The answer is that no one can be sure whether or not this former quake contributed and if it did, how this contribution may have been manifest. Seismology, despite ever increasing sophisitication, is still unclear about many facets and variables related to earthquakes. So for any person to provide certainty one way or the other about the relationship between these two seismic events would not be useful. However, it certainly could warrant a thesis or two.

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator
http://www.afap.org/apcedi/

APCEDI ALERT EQ-SSEA #3, 2004: Series of Earthquakes and Tsunamis Devastate Wide Area of South and Southeast Asia

Update on Death Tolls

Death tolls continue to mount around the region. The following are revised, interim death tolls from three primary sources: BBC, Agence France-Presse and the Indian Government. These figures will be revised as more information comes in.

Sumatra and off shore islands (4000-4200 dead, Major to Catastrophic Damage in Northern Sumatran Provinces including Aceh)

Sri Lanka, East Coast Trincomalee to Batticaloa and around the South Coast from Hambantota to Galle (3700-4300 dead; severe damage with pockets of catastrophic damage);

India, Coastal Tamil Nadu, Southern Andhra Pradesh including Pondicherry enclaves and Kerala; with Chennai (Madras) hardest hit (2000 dead; major damage with pockets of catastrophic damage);

Andaman and Nicobar Islands (India) (all communications out, 100-120 deaths, severe to catastrophic damage throughout)

Thailand, Phuket and along the peninsular west coast including Krabi area (310 dead; Moderate Damage with pockets of Major Damage)

Maldives (30-60 dead; unofficial sources from India report more deaths; most communications out, major damage throughout)

Burma, Tenassarim Peninsula (10 dead but unofficial news coming out of Thailand report major damage and more deaths in coastal towns );

Malaysia, Penang and Coastal Kedah State in Northwest; (42 dead; Moderate Damage with pockets of Major Damage)

Bangladesh (2 dead, Light to isolated Moderate Damage)

Many of these figures will still continue to rise as reports from outlying and cut-off areas eventually come in.

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator
http://www.afap.org/apcedi/

APCEDI ALERT EQ-SSEA #2, 2004: Series of Earthquakes and Tsunamis Devastate Wide Area of South and Southeast Asia

Aftershocks from the initial 8.9 magnitude quake continue. The latest aftershocks have been centred on the Andaman and Nicobar Islands. Technical information on the quakes can be found at:
http://wwwneic.cr.usgs.gov/neis/bulletin/bulletin.html

2004/12/26  11:05:00
13.54N, 92.88E
10.0, 6.3
ANDAMAN ISLANDS, INDIA REGION

2004/12/26  10:19:29
13.45N, 92.79E
10.0, 6.2
ANDAMAN ISLANDS, INDIA REGION

2004/12/26  09:20:01
8.87N, 92.38E
10.0 6.5
NICOBAR ISLANDS, INDIA REGION

2004/12/26  07:38:24
13.12N, 93.05E
10.0, 5.8
ANDAMAN ISLANDS, INDIA REGION

2004/12/26  07:07:09
10.34N, 93.76E
10.0, 5.7
ANDAMAN ISLANDS, INDIA REGION

2004/12/26  06:21:58
10.62N, 92.32E
10.0, 5.7
ANDAMAN ISLANDS, INDIA REGION

Death tolls continue to mount around the region. The following are revised, interim death tolls from three primary sources: BBC, Agence France-Presse and the Indian Government. These figures will be revised as more information comes in.

Sumatra and off shore islands (1500-2000 dead, Major to Catastrophic Damage in Northern Provinces including Aceh)

Sri Lanka, East Coast Trincomalee to Batticaloa and around the South Coast from Hambantota to Galle (1700-2200 deaths; severe damage with pockets of catastrophic damage);

India, Coastal Tamil Nadu, Southern Andhra Pradesh including Pondicherry enclaves and Kerala with Chennai (Madras) hardest hit (1000-1200 deaths; major damage with pockets of catastrophic damage);

Andaman and Nicobar Islands (India) (all communications out, 100-120 deaths, severe to catastrophic damage throughout)

Thailand, Phuket and along the peninsular west coast including Krabi area (190-220 deaths; Moderate Damage with pockets of Major Damage)

Maldives (20-40 dead; most communications out, major damage throughout)

Burma, Tenassarim Peninsula (No official reports of news but unofficial news coming out of Thailand report major damage and deaths in coastal towns );

Malaysia, Penang and Coastal Kedah State in Northwest; (29 deaths; Moderate Damage with pockets of Major Damage)

Bangladesh (Officials report no deaths, but news refers to few deaths, Light to isolated Moderate Damage)

Many of these figures are expected to rise as reports from outlying and cut-off areas eventually come in.

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator
http://www.afap.org/apcedi/

APCEDI ALERT 04F #4, 2004: Tropical Storm Judy Moves South into Austral Group Causing Damage in its Wake

Tropical Storm Judy which has now been recognised by Meteo France as a named storm has moved south into the Austral Group of French Polynesia after causing serious damage to the Anaa Atoll in the Tuamotu Group (see previous APCEDI Alert #3). It is still a minimal tropical storm and has weakened slightly, but it is still capable of causing serious to moderate property and crop damage near its centre.

This is now the first named storm of the 2004-2005 South Pacific season. Here are the latest updates and alerts.

FROM FIJI METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE
http://www.met.gov.fj/aifs_prods/10140.txt

MARINE WEATHER BULLETIN FOR ISLANDS AREA 5N TO 25S BETWEEN 160E AND 180 AND EQ TO 25S BETWEEN 180 AND 120W. ISSUED BY FIJI METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE 5N to 25S between 160E and 180 and EQ to25S between 180 and 120W issued by Fiji Meteorological Service Dec 260800 UTC.

PART 1 : WARNINGGale Warning 047 issued from RSMC NADI Dec 26/0653 UTC 2004 UTC. Tropical Cyclone JUDY centre [990 hPa] was located near 24 decimal 4 South 147 decimal 1 West at 260600 UTC. Position Poor. Repeat position 24.4S 147.1W at 260600 UTC. Cyclone moving south at about 10 knots and expected to turn south-southeast. Expect sustained winds of 40 knots close to centre. Expect winds over 33 knots within 90 miles of centre in the northern semi-circle and within 240 miles of centre in the southern semi-circle.

Forecast position near 26.3S 147.1W at 261800 UTC. and near 28.7S 146.4W at 270600 UTC.

Ships within 300 miles of centre are requested to send reports every three hours. VOS reporting ships use normal channels. Other vessels fax plus 679 6720190 or email naditcc at met dot gov dot fj.

This warning cancels and replaces warning 046.

FROM THE LOCAL AUTHORITIES VIA TAHITIPRESSE
The local authorities in Papeete have issued the following meteorological advice:
http://www.tahitipresse.pf/

PREVISIONS PAR ARCHIPEL VALABLES JUSQU ’A LUNDI SOIR.

Attention : l’avis de phénomène exceptionnel n°10 est en cours et signale notamment une dépression baptisée « JUDY » qui intéresse l’archipel des Australes avec des vents de 60 à 70 km/h en moyenne et des rafales autour de 100 km/h. Par ailleurs, une houle de nord-ouest de 2m à 2m50 arrive toujours sur le nord du Territoire. Elle provoquera une montée des eaux dans les lagons exposés des îles de la Société et des Tuamotu de l’ouest et du nord, avec de forts courants près des passes.

TUAMOTU ET GAMBIER : Le ciel est toujours nuageux sur la majeure partie des Tuamotu. Cependant les averses ou grains sont moins nombreux que ces derniers jours. Ils se déclenchent cette nuit et demain vers Tematangi, Hao, Makemo et Anaa, Fakarava, Takaroa, Ahe, Rangiroa et vers Mataiva, Tikehau. L’amélioration qui débute sur l’est de l’archipel gagne les régions du centre et de l’ouest demain, réduisant l’instabilité. Lundi l’alizé se rétablit avec par contre beaucoup de nuages élevés.
Aux Gambier le ciel reste très chargé pendant ces deux jours, avec quelques averses isolées.
Vent de Nord-est à Nord assez fort, avec encore des rafales jusqu’à 70/80 km/h, faiblissant pour devenir modéré à assez fort demain. Il viendra à l’est modéré, demain soir sur le nord de l’archipel et Lundi sur le reste de l’archipel et ainsi qu’aux Gambier.
Mer forte cette nuit et demain et agitée lundi. Houle longue de nord-ouest de 2m à 2m50. Les creux peuvent encore atteindre 3 à 4m sur le sud de l’archipel.

AUSTRALES :De Tubuai à Raivavae jusqu’à Rapa, le temps reste maussade avec un ciel le plus souvent couvert, des averses et grains passagers.
De Rurutu à Rimatara et Maria le ciel est plutôt bien dégagé et les averses plus isolées.
Sur les Iles du nord, vent modéré à assez fort de sud-est tournant sud-ouest à ouest dimanche en faiblissant.
A Rapa, vent de nord-est assez fort à fort, venant au nord dimanche. Les rafales peuvent atteindre 90/100 km/h et même dépasser les 100Km/Heure.
Mer forte à très forte. Houle de secteur nord 2m à 3m, se croisant avec la mer du vent pour donner des creux de 3m à 3m50 en général voire 4à 5m de Raivavae à Rapa.

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator
http://www.afap.org/apcedi/

APCEDI ALERT 04F #3, 2004: Tropical Storm Judy Causes Serious Damage in Tuamotu Group

The following is an article from Tahitipresse which characterises the damage in the Anaa Atoll of the Temotu Group from the passage of Tropical Storm Judy in the last few days. No deaths have been reported yet. http://www.tahitipresse.pf/.

L'atoll d'Anaa dévasté peu avant Noël

(Tahitipresse)  -  Une délégation menée par le ministre du Développement des archipels Louis Frébault s'est rendue, vendredi, sur l'atoll d'Anaa, dans l'archipel des Tuamotu, qui a été touché par des vents violents et une forte houle dans la nuit de mercredi à jeudi.

"Aue te riaria e te arohae!" (ça fait peur et pitié) s'est exclamée Aimée Williams, le maire délégué de l'atoll de Anaa, en constatant qu'une dizaine de maisons du village de Tukuhora avaient été détruites, à la veille de Noël, par ce qui allait devenir la dépression "Judy".
"La population qui a vécu le cyclone de février 1983 reste traumatisée et sursaute au moindre coup de vent", précise le maire délégué de cet atoll situé à 437 km à l'est de Tahiti où les habitants vivent du coprah. Anaa est en effet le troisième producteur de coprah de l'archipel des Tuamotu.

Destruction de maisons et de séchoirs à coprah

"Le président de la Polynésie m'a demandé d'approvisionner le compte du Fonds des calamités naturelles de 200 millions Fcfp (1 676 000 euros). Par ailleurs, suite à notre visite sur le terrain, cette somme pourrait être doublé" a déclaré à Tahitipresse Louis Frébault, ministre du Développement des archipels qui s'est rendu sur l'atoll accompagné de Patrick Bordet, responsable du Fonds d'entraide aux îles (FEI).
"Au prochain conseil des ministres, une aide sera débloquée pour les atolls sinistrés. Dans l'immédiat, néanmoins, nous allons intervenir pour remettre en état les maisons détruites" a promis le ministre du Développement des archipels.
Le constat dressé par Victor Burns, adjoint au maire, est le suivant: deux maisons détruites à 100%, sept maisons détruites à 80%, trois bungalows pulvérisés, deux garages et deux séchoirs à coprah détruits à 100%.

Vents violents dans la nuit de mercredi à jeudi

"A 2h30 jeudi matin, le vent et la houle qui étaient d'ouest sont passés au sud-ouest et les vagues du lagon ont déferlé dans ma maison qui s'est mise à trembler puis s'est effondrée. J'ai vraiment eu peur" avoue Tane Topia, 50 ans, du quartier de Tokerau.
L'infirmière du village, Marie-Marthe Leblond, une métropolitaine en poste sur l'atoll depuis mars 2003, témoigne: "Mercredi soir au soleil couchant, le ciel avait une luminosité inhabituelle, bizarre (…) Je craignais qu'il y ait des blessés, mais par bonheur ce ne fut pas le cas".

Le souvenir des cyclones de 1906 et 1983

Dans cet atoll de 90 km2, qui compte 3771 hectares de terres émergées, soit onze petits "motu" (îlots), la population a plusieurs fois été victime des cyclones. Les plus dramatiques se sont produits en 1878 et 1906.
En 1906, l'atoll de Anaa a ainsi été anéanti en quelques heures. Hommes, bêtes, végétation, tout a été balayé, entraîné soit dans le lagon, soit au large par le courant sortant. Le cyclone, à l'époque, avait fait 95 victimes.
De nouveau en 1983, l'atoll a été frappé par le cyclone "Orama". Anaa fut dévasté et son village détruit à 95%. Le village de Tukuhora a été reconstruit, à la suite de ce cyclone, dans une zone plus protégée.
CD

More reports from Tahiti as they are available.

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator
http://www.afap.org/apcedi/

APCEDI ALERT EQ-SSEA #1, 2004: Series of Earthquakes and Tsunamis Devastate Wide Area of South and Southeast Asia

A series of powerful earthquakes, noted below, have occurred along the boundary of the Australian and Eurasian Plates from Northern Sumatra in the south to the North Andaman Islands in the north.

2004/12/26  04:21:26
6.90N, 92.95E
10.0, 7.3
NICOBAR ISLANDS, INDIA REGION

2004/12/26  03:08:42
13.81N, 92.97E
10.0, 6.1
ANDAMAN ISLANDS, INDIA REGION

2004/12/26  02:59:12
3.18N, 94.26E
10.0, 5.9
OFF W COAST OF NORTHERN SUMATRA

2004/12/26  02:51:59
12.51N, 92.59E
10.0, 6.0
ANDAMAN ISLANDS, INDIA REGION

2004/12/26  02:36:06
12.14N, 93.01E
10.0, 5.8
ANDAMAN ISLANDS, INDIA REGION

2004/12/26  02:34:50
4.10N, 94.18E
10.0, 5.8
OFF W COAST OF NORTHERN SUMATRA

2004/12/26  02:22:01
8.86N, 92.50E
10.0, 6.0
NICOBAR ISLANDS, INDIA REGION

2004/12/26  02:15:57
12.37N, 92.51E
10.0, 5.8
ANDAMAN ISLANDS, INDIA REGION

2004/12/26  01:48:46
5.39N, 94.42E
10.0, 5.9
NORTHERN SUMATRA, INDONESIA

2004/12/26  00:58:50
3.30N, 95.78E
10.0, 8.5
OFF W COAST OF NORTHERN SUMATRA

Deaths and Severe Damage from the quakes and large resultant tsunamis are now being reported from main media centres like the BBC and CNN from a wide areas including the following:

Sumatra and off shore islands (50-120 dead, Catastrophic Damage)

Nicobar Islands (India) (all communitcaions out, deaths, severe to catastrophic damage throughout)

Andaman Islands (India)(all communications out, deaths, severe to catastrophic damage throughout)

Malaysia, Penang and Northwest Coast; (5-10 deaths; Moderate Damage with pockets of Major Damage)

Thailand, Phuket and along the west coast ( 5-20 deaths; Moderate Damage with pockets of Major Damage)

Burma, Tenassarim Peninsula (Deaths, Major Damage);

Bangladesh (Deaths, Moderate Damage with pockets of Major Damage)

Sri Lanka, East Coast especially around Trincomalee( 150-300 deaths; major damage with pockets of catastrophic damage);

India, Tamil Nadu and Southern Andhra Pradesh including the Pondicherry enclaves (50-200 deaths; 400 missing; major damage with pockets of catastrophic damage);

Maldives (all communications out, catastrophic damage throughout)

These figures are all speculative at the moment, but an overall high death toll can be expected.

Technical information on the quakes can be found at:
http://wwwneic.cr.usgs.gov/neis/bulletin/bulletin.html

News on this major event is now dominating all news outlets on television, shortwave and internet.

APCEDI will continue to monitor this major situation. However, due the global scope of this disaster, major international attention will be on this situation, and people should stay posted to international and local media for updates.

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator
http://www.afap.org/apcedi/
 

APCEDI ALERT 04F #2, 2004: Tropical Storm 04F (Judy) Passes through Tuamotu and Austral Groups

The unusual tropical storm system which the Fiji Meteorological Bureau has named Judy continues to pass through the Tuamotu and Austral Groups of French Polynesia. Only the Fiji Meteorological Bureau is calling this tropical storm. Meteo France and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center have not issued warnings on this system. This is likely due to its combination of small size and somewhat extratropical characteristics.

FROM FIJI METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE
http://www.met.gov.fj/aifs_prods/10140.txt

PART 1 : WARNING Gale Warning 045 issued from RSMC NADI Dec 25/1915 UTC 2004 UTC.Tropical Cyclone JUDY centre [989 hPa] was located near 22 decimal 5 South 146 decimal 7 West at 251800 UTC. Position Poor. Repeat position 22.5S 146.7W at 251800 UTC. Cyclone moving south-southwest at about 09 knots and expected to accelerate slightly before turning south. Expect sustained winds of 40 knots close to centre. Expect winds over 33 knots within 60 miles of centre in northern semi circle and within 240 miles of centre in the southern semi-circle. Forecast position near 23.8S 147.5W at 260600 UTC. and near 26.0S 147.5W at 261800 UTC.

Ships within 300 miles of centre are requested to send reports every three hours.VOS reporting ships use normal channels. Other vessels fax plus 6720190 or email naditcc at met dot gov dot fj.

This warning cancels and replaces warning 044.

FROM THE LOCAL AUTHORITIES VIA TAHITIPRESSE
The local authorities in Papeete have issued the following meteorological advice:
http://www.tahitipresse.pf/

Avis de phénomène météorologique exceptionnel sur le centre des Tuamotu. Une houle de nord-ouest de 2,5 m arrive sur le nord du Territoire aujourd’hui. Elle provoquera une montée des eaux dans les lagons exposés des îles de la Société et également des Tuamotu de l’ouest et du nord.

TUAMOTU ET GAMBIER : L’instabilité persiste sur cet archipel. Des averses fortes et accompagnées de fortes rafales de vent sont encore possibles pendant ces deux jours. Malgré quelques périodes de ciel clair sur certaines régions au cours de ces jours, l’amélioration ne commence que Samedi sur les régions de Reao, Nukutavake et Pukapuka, elle gagnera ensuite les régions du centre et de l’ouest ensuite. Sur l‘archipel des Gambier le temps reste le plus souvent couvert pendant ces deux jours mais les précipitations sont plus isolées et d’intensité plus faible. Vent de Nord à Nord-Est assez fort à fort sur les Tuamotu et modéré sur les Gambier. Les rafales peuvent dépasser les 100km/h. Mer agitée à localement forte avec des creux autour de 3m50 à 4m sur les zones perturbées. Houle longue de nord-nord-ouest de 2m, croisée avec une mer du vent de sud-est de 2m sur le sud des Tuamotu.

AUSTRALES :Sur les Iles du nord, le ciel est passagèrement nuageux avec quelques averses et grains passagers. A Rapa le ciel sera passagèrement nuageux et voilé, sans précipitations notables. Aujourd’hui sur le Nord, vent assez fort à fort de Sud-Est, tournant au Nord-est demain. Sur Rapa secteur est assez fort aujourd’hui tournant au Nord-est assez fort demain. Les Rafales sur les îles du nord peuvent atteindre 100 km/h. Mer agitée à localement forte. Houle de nord-nord-ouest 1m50, croisée avec la houle de sud-est 1m50. mer du vent 3m. Sur les Iles du nord, mer forte, la mer du vent se combinant à la houle pour donner des creux de 3m à 3m50.

However, TahitiPresse have not mentioned any damage or any other news associated with this storm. APCEDI will continue to monitor this unusual system until it passes clear of French Polynesia.

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator
http://www.afap.org/apcedi/

APCEDI ALERT 04F #1, 2004: Tropical Storm 04F (Judy) Forms South of Tahiti

A persistent tropical depression to the east and south of Papeete and the Society Islands which has been lingering in the area for a week has formed into a tropical storm which has been named by the Fiji Meteorological Office as Judy. This is a minimal strength tropical storm and already has characteristics of becoming extratropical. However heavy rain and gales can be expected at Hereheretue, Tubuai and other islands in the Tuamotu and Austral Groups. Neither the French Government nor the Joint Typhoon Warning Centre have posted any storm announcements yet.

FROM FIJI METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE
http://www.met.gov.fj/aifs_prods/10140.txt

PART 1 : WARNINGGALE WARNING 043 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI DEC 25/0650 UTC 2004. TROPICAL CYCLONE JUDY CENTRE [989 HPA] WAS LOCATED NEAR 20 DECIMAL 9 SOUTH 145 DECIMAL 7 WEST AT 250600 UTC. POSITION POOR. REPEAT POSITION 20.9S 145.7W AT 250600 UTC. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 06 KNOTS. EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35 TO 40 KNOTS CLOSE TO CENTRE. EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 60 MILES OF CENTRE IN NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND WITHIN 210 MILES OF CENTRE IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. FORECAST POSITION NEAR 22.1S 146.3W AT 251800 UTC AND NEAR 23.8S 146.9W AT 260600 UTC. SHIPS WITHIN 300 MILES OF CENTRE ARE REQUESTED TO SEND REPORTS EVERY THREE HOURS.VOS REPORTING SHIPS USE NORMAL CHANNELS. OTHER VESSELS FAX PLUS 679 6720190 OR EMAIL NADITCC AT MET DOT GOV DOT FJ. THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 042.

A good satellite picture of the system can be found on the following Meteo France Site
http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/polynesie/satellite/internet.jpg


This storm system is outside of the normal APCEDI coverage area, but we will monitor this unusual storm which will likely go extratropical in the next few days and then move south out of French Polynesian Territory.

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator
http://www.afap.org/apcedi/

APCEDI ALERT 02F #6, 2004: Tropical Depression 02F Dissipates East of Vanuatu

Tropical Depression 02F is weakening and beginning to dissipate to the east of Vanuatu as it experiences increased shear and lower sea surface temperatures. The latest from the Fiji Meteorological Service moves the storm poleward while dissipating the depression in 24-48 hours in the open ocean well south of Vanuatu and Fiji.


FROM FIJI METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE
http://www.met.gov.fj/advisories.html

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02F CENTRE [1002HPA] WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.5S, 171.5E AT 140800 UTC MOVING SOUTHWARDS 08 KNOTS. POSITION POOR BASED ON GOES9 EIR IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. SUSTAINED 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS OF 25 TO 30 RISING TO 35 KNOTS AT TIMES BETWEEN 30 MILES AND 90 MILES AWAY FROM THE CENTRE IN SECTORS SOUTHWEST THROUGH NORTH TO SOUTHEAST.

DEPRESSION IS SIGNIFICANTLY SHEARED WITH LLCC EXPOSED WELL SOUTH OF DEEP CONVECTION. DVORAK ANALYSIS AT 140800 UTC BASED ON SHEAR PATTERNYIELDS T1.0/2.0/W1.5/24HRS. SST AROUND 28 DEGREES CELSIUS. LLCC CURRENTLY LIES SOUTH OF THE 250HPA OUTFLOW CENTRE. SYSTEM IS MOVING INTO STRONGER SHEAR AS WELL AS COOLER SST. THIS IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN 02F FURTHER. GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON MOVING THE DEPRESSION POLEWARD WITH FURTHER WEAKENING.

Some intermittent squalls will continue over Eastern and Southern Vanuatu Islands, but these will gradually diminish during the day tomorrow. This will be the last APCEDI Alert on this system unless it should unexpectedly reform or otherwise threaten any island areas.

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator
http://www.afap.org/apcedi/

APCEDI ALERT 02F #5, 2004: Tropical Depression 02F Weakens Northeast of Vanuatu

Tropical depression 02F has tracked southward this morning and has now entered a heavy shear environment, which is likely to dissipate the depression in the next 24 hours as it continues south into cooler waters. Therefore it is now unlikely that this will become the the season's first South Pacific cyclone. The system will continue to spread squally weather across Vanuatu. However, with the increased speed to the south, the weather should begin to clear in the north tonight and in the rest of Vanuatu tomorrow from north to south.


FROM FIJI METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE
http://www.met.gov.fj/advisories.html

Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W issued from RSMC NADI Dec 13/2333 UTC 2004 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02F CENTRE [1002HPA] WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.5S, 171.1E AT 132100 UTC MOVING SOUTHWARDS 1O KNOTS. POSITION FAIR BASED ON GOES9 VIS IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. SUSTAINED 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS WITHIN 100 MILES OF THE CENTRE.

SYSTEM NOW APPEARS SIGNIFICANTLY SHEARED WITH LLCC EXPOSED AND LOCATED ABOUT 1 DEGREE SOUTH OF DEEP CONVECTION. DVORAK ANALYSIS AT 132100 UTC BASED ON SHEAR PATTERN YIELDS T2.5/2.0/W0.5/25HRS. SST AROUND 28 DEGREES CELSIUS. 02F CURRENTLY LIES SOUTH OF THE 250HPA OUTFLOW CENTRE IN A STRONG SHEAR ENVIRONTMENT. CIMSS INDICATES STRONGER SHEAR IN THE PATH OF THE SYSTEM. 02F IS EXPECTED TO FURTHER WEAKEN AS IT DRIFTS SOUTHWARDS. GLOBAL MODELS THAT HAVE CAPTURED THE SYSTEM ARE GENERALLY MOVING 02F SOUTHWARDS AND WEAKENING.

POTENTIAL FOR 02F TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS LOW.

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator
http://www.afap.org/apcedi/

APCEDI ALERT 02F #4, 2004: Tropical Depression 02F Creeps toward Vanuatu

Tropical Depression 02F has crept slowly southwestward toward Vanuatu. Intermittent squalls and heavy rains are occurring in Vanuatu from Efate northward. Intermittent squalls and heavy rains are decreasing on Anuta and Tikopia (Solomon Islands), and on Rotuma (Fiji). Here are the latest updates:

FROM JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER
http://www.npmoc.navy.mil/jtwc.html

Click here for JTWC Map sh9705.gif

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.4S9 173.0E1, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.1S6, 172.4E4, APPROXIMATELY 425 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF SUVA, FIJI. A 121807Z9 QUIKSCAT PASS INDICATES A WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). RECENT MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LLCC WITH WEAK CONVECTION. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES AN ENVIRONMENT OF LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND FAVORABLE DIVERGENCE. MAXIMUM SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. SEE REF B (WTPS21 PGTW 122100) FOR FURTHER DETAILS. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS GOOD.


FROM FIJI METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE
http://www.met.gov.fj/advisories.html

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02F CENTRE [1000HPA] LOCATED NEAR 14.4S 171.6E AT 131800 UTC. POSITION POOR. DEPRESSION SLOW MOVING. CLOCKWISE WINDS 25 TO 30 KNOTS WITHIN 100 MILES OF CENTRE POSSIBLY INCREASING TO 35 KNOTS IN THE NORTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. VERY ROUGH SEAS. MODERATE SWELLS. POOR VISIBILITY WITHIN 100 MILES OF CENTRE.

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator
http://www.afap.org/apcedi/

APCEDI ALERT 02F #3, 2004: Tropical Depression 02F Slow Moving

Tropical Depression 02F has meandered around this afternoon and evening. It has been relocated slightly more north of earlier readings, although its centre is diffuse and not easy to locate. There is still a slight southerly component to movement. Here are the latest updates:


FROM JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER
http://www.npmoc.navy.mil/jtwc.html

AN AREA OF CONVECTION NEAR 14.4S9 173.0E1, APPROXIMATELY 385 NM NORTHWEST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS PERSISTED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. A 121807Z9 QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWS A TIGHT LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). RECENT ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS DEEP CONVECTION IS STARTING TO CONSOLIDATE, AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY SUGGESTS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LLCC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES AN ENVIRONMENT OF LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND FAVORABLE DIVERGENCE. MAXIMUM SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.


FROM FIJI METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE
http://www.met.gov.fj/advisories.html

Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
issued from RSMC NADI Dec 13/0919 UTC 2004 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02F CENTRE [1000HPA] WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.5S, 172.0E AT 130800 UTC SLOW MOVING. POSITION POOR BASED ON GOES9 EIR AND VIS IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. SUSTAINED 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS WITHIN 120 MILES OF THE CENTRE. WINDS MAY INCREASE TO 35 KNOTS WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

LLCC ESTIMATED TO SOUTHEAST OF DEEP CONVECTION. CONVECTION DIMINISHED IN LAST 6 TO 12 HOURS BUT TOPS HAVE COOLED IN THE PAST 3 HOURS, INFLUENCED BY DIURNAL VARIATION. OUTFLOW FAIR IN ALL QUADRANTS. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE IS AROUND 28 TO 29 DEGREES CELSIUS. 02F CURRENTLY LIES JUST NORTH OF THE 250HPA OUTFLOW CENTRE WITH SHEAR STILL PERSISTENT FROM THE EAST. DEEP CONVECTION IS BEING STEERED NORTH OF WEST UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHWEST. GENERALLY, THE SYSTEM STILL LIES IN AN AREA OF RELATIVELY WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR. HENCE, THE DEPRESSION IS STILL LIKELY TO UNDERGO FURTHER SLOW DEVELOPMENT, AT LEAST IN THE SHORT TERM. DVORAK ANALYSIS CURRENTLY YIELDS 2.5. GLOBAL MODELS THAT HAVE CAPTURED THE SYSTEM ARE
GENERALLY MOVING 02F SOUTHWARDS.

POTENTIAL FOR 02F TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS LOW TO MODERATE.

Intermittent squalls and heavy rains continue for Rotuma (Fiji), Anuta and Tikopia (Solomons Islands) and the Northeastern Islands of Vanuatu from Pentecost and Santo northwards. This type of weather is very common for this time of year.

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator
http://www.afap.org/apcedi/

APCEDI ALERT 02F #2, 2004: Tropical Depression 02F Deepens and Moves South

Here is the latest update from the Fiji Meteorological Service

Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
issued from RSMC NADI Dec 12/2317 UTC 2004 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02F [1000HPA] LOCATED NEAR 15.5S 173.0E AT 122100 UTC SLOW MOVING. POSITION POOR BASED ON LATEST QUIKSCAT, GOES9 AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. CLOCKWISE WINDS 25 TO 30 KNOTS WITHIN 150 MILES OF THE CENTRE. FAIR AMOUNT OF CONVECTION CLOSE TO THE CENTRE. OUTFLOW FAIR IN ALL QUADRANTS. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE IS AROUND 28 TO 29 DEGREES CELSIUS WITH 02F LYING CLOSE TO THE 250HPA OUTFLOW CENTRE. AS THE SYSTEM STILL LIES IN AN AREA OF RELATIVELY WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR THE ENVIRONMENT IS STILL CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER SLOW DEVELOPMENT. DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATED AT 2.5.

POTENTIAL FOR 02F TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS LOW TO MODERATE.

Currently intermittent squally weather is being experienced on Rotuma (Fiji), Tikopia and Anuta (Temotu Province, Solomon Islands). On a southward course, this system could pass between Vanuatu and Fiji without causing too much serious effect to either Island nation. However, the current proximity to Vanuatu warrants the close monitoring of this storm by Vanuatu's eastern and southern islands.

APCEDI ALERT 02F #1, 2004: Tropical Depression 02F Deepens West of Rotuma

Tropical Depression 02F (WTPS21) which has persisted in this area between the Santa Cruz Islands (Temotu Province, Solomon Islands) and Rotuma (Fiji) for the last week has now deepened and is threatening to become the season's first tropical storm. The Joint Typhoon Warning Center has issued the following alert. Currently the system is bringing intermittent squalls and and heavy rains to Rotuma.


TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:

(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.0S5; 174.3E5, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.4S9 173.0E1, APPROXIMATELY 385 NM NORTHWEST OF SUVA, FIJI. A 121807Z9 QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWS A TIGHT LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). RECENT ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS DEEP CONVECTION IS STARTING TO CONSOLIDATE, AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY SUGGESTS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LLCC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES AN ENVIRONMENT OF LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND FAVORABLE DIVERGENCE. MAXIMUM SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. SEE REF B (WTPS21 PGTW 122100) FOR FURTHER DETAILS. BASED ON IMPROVED ORGANIZATION, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO GOOD.

APCEDI will continue to provide daily updates on this storm. Should it form into a full fledged tropical storm, APCEDI will provide more regular updates.