APCEDI Alert SP/Fj 15P Gene #6-2008: Cyclone Gene Begins to Pound Southern Vanuatu; Threatens Serious Damage for Tanna, Erromango and Anatom

The RSMC-Nadi Tropical Cyclone Centre, the Joint Typhoon Warning Centre continue to issue guidance on Tropical Cyclone Gene that is now beginning to impact on Southern Vanuatu.

The centre of Cyclone Gene is located 120 km east of of the Vanuatu island of Tanna at 8 PM this evening Vanuatu time with the centre of the storm approaching the small island of Futuna east of Tanna. Gene is maintaining a slow forward speed to the southwest at 9 km/hr. Cyclone Gene continues to intensify and has recently formed a clear eye feature about 80 km east of Futuna.

The current forecast map shows Gene beginning its onslaught on the southernmost islands of Vanuatu. At its current speed and forecast direction, Gene's centre pass over or near to the island of Futuna and then turn more southerly and pass over or near to the island of Anatom, Vanuatu's southern-most island. The exact passage of the Cyclone and the exact timing of recurvature will depend on which islands get direct hits and which get the most damage.

Cyclone Gene is currently at Category 2 strength on the Saffir Simpson Scale. This equates to a Category 3 on the Australia Scale. It is now forecast to slightly increase in strength as it moves southwestward across Vanuatu and should pass the southernmost Vanuatu islands at Category 2 strength on the Saffir Simpson Scale, which equates to Category 3 on the Australia Scale.

Cyclone Warnings remain in place for all of Tafea Province of Southern Vanuatu including the islands of Erromango, Tanna, Anatom, Aniwa and Futuna and all adjacent small islands. A Cyclone warning/ watch also is in place for Shefa Province of Central Vanuatu.

Here is an island by island breakdown for Tafea Province.

Futuna, population 400; Futuna, Vanuatu's easternmost island, tonight looks set to be the first island directly in harm's way and could receive a direct hit by the eyewall of a slow moving cyclone in the next 6 hours. Should this occur, damage will likely be severe and widespread. News reports are indicating that nearly all people are moving to shelters. Given the rough, steep volcanic terrain, flash flooding off the volcano slopes could be severe. Seas will be phenomenal and likely to cause severe coastal erosion and tidal flooding.

Anatom (Anietyum), population 800; After Futuna, Anatom, Vanuatu's southernmost island, also looks set to possibly receive a direct hit in 8-12 hours. Should this occur, damage will likely be severe and widespread. News reports are indicating people are moving to shelters nearly everywhere. Given the rough, steep volcanic terrain, flash flooding off the volcano slopes could be severe. Seas will be phenomenal and likely to cause severe coastal erosion and tidal flooding.

Tanna, population 26,000; Tanna, the island with the Province's largest population, looks like it will miss a direct hit at this time, but the centre of the storm could pass quite close still causing considerable widespread and severe damage. News reports are indicating people are moving to shelters in vulnerable areas. Given the rough, steep volcanic terrain, flash flooding off the volcano slopes could be severe. Seas will be phenomenal and likely to cause severe coastal erosion and tidal flooding. This assessment also applies to the small island of Aniwa, population 400, which lies off the northeast coast of Tanna.

Erromango, population 1,500; the northernmost island will likely miss the full brunt of the Cyclone Gene but will still receive destructive gale force winds and very rough seas and heavy rains. Damage will likely be moderate and widespread. News reports are indicating people are moving to shelters in vulnerable areas. Given the rough, steep volcanic terrain, flash flooding off the volcano slopes could be severe. Seas will be phenomenal and likely to cause severe coastal erosion and tidal flooding.

New Caledonia has also been put on Cyclone Alert as it could take a blow from Gene once it passes through southern Vanuatu. The New Caledonian islands of Lifou, Maré and Ouvéa should be particularly watchful as the storm would likely hit them first before the main island of Grande Terre. The effect on New Caledonia will depend considerably on the timing and degree of recurvature of the storm's path to the south.

All residents and interests in Southern Vanuatu and New Caledonia should monitor the progress of the storm as it passes over and follow all cyclone advice that the Government issues. As Cyclone Gene increases in strength it is increasingly becoming a more dangerous storm. Considerable widespread and severe damage could be expected on any islands near to where the centre of the storm passes.

EFFECTS OF CYLCONE GENE ON FIJI
Gene caused widespread minor to moderate damage across both of the main Fiji islands of Viti Levu and Vanua Levu as well as Taveuni and the Yasawa and Mamanuca Groups and many other outliers near the big islands. Many trees were brought down, and power was temporarily cut to wide areas including Suva and Nadi. Widespread low-level crop and vegetation damage is also reported as well as superficial damage to some homes and buildings. However, the lower strength of the storm limited more severe wind damage. Power has been already restored in many areas. River flooding from continuing rains associated with the system has destroyed some homes in both Navua and Nadi, and in a few other areas. Two people were killed as an indirect result of Cyclone Gene from house fires while using candles to light their homes when the power went out. FijiLive has some good e-coverage.


ALERTS AND WARNINGS

VANUATU

A CYCLONE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR TAFEA PROVINCE INCLUDING ERROMANGO, TANNA, ANATOM, ANIWA AND FUTUNA.
A CYCLONE WARNING?WATCH AND ALERT REMAINS IN FORCE FOR CENTRAL VANUATU.

FIJI

A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR VITI LEVU, BEQA, VATULELE, KADAVU AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS AND SOUTHERN YASAWAS AND MAMANUCAS.

NEW CALEDONIA/ NOUVELLE CALEDONIE

A CYCLONE WATCH AND ALERT HAS BEEN RAISED FOR ALL NEW CALEDONIA INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF LIFOU, OUVÉA AND MARÉ.

____________________

From the RSMC-Nadi Tropical Cyclone Centre

Vanuatu Advisory

Special Advisory Number ELEVEN for Vanuatu on TC GENE ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Jan 31/0820 UTC 2008 UTC.

SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE GENE CENTRE [955HPA] CAT 3 NEAR 19.4S 171.2E AT 310600 UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED ON MTSAT EIR/VIS IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHWEST ABOUT 5 KNOTS BUT EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TURN FURTHER TOWARDS THE SOUTH WITHIN THE NEXT 18 HRS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS ESTIMATED AT 80 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE INCREASING TO 90 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. EXPECT WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 35 MILES OF CENTRE. EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 55 MILES OF CENTRE. EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 160 MILES OF CENTRE IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND WITHIN 110 MILES OF CENTRE ELSEWHERE.

ORGANISATION REMAINS GOOD PAST 6 HOURS WITH COLD CONVECTIVE TOPS PERSISTING OVER LLCC. OUTFLOW GOOD TO EAST. STEERING STILL INFLUENCED BY MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH WHICH IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO ALLOW POLEWARD MOVEMENT IN NEXT 18 HRS. CIMSS SHOWS MODERATE SHEAR OVER SYSTEM AS WELL AS ALONG FORECAST TRACK. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON EMBD
CENTRE PATTERN WITHIN WHITE DT=5.0,MET=5.0 AND PT=4.5, THUS T5.0/5.0/D0.5/24HRS. THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS FURTHER INTENSIFIES THE CYCLONE AND GRADUALLY TURNS IT TOWARDS THE SOUTH IN THE NEXT 18 HOURS.

ON ITS PROJECTED TRACK, SEVERE TC GENE CENTRE IS EXPECTED TO PASS JUST SOUTH OF TANNA WITHIN THE NEXT 18 HOURS. EXPECT DAMAGING GALE FORCE WINDS TO THE SOUTH OF VILA. BETWEEN TANNA AND ANEITYUM WINDS INCREASING TO DESTRUCTIVE STORM FORCE IN THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS AND THEN VERY DESTRUCTIVE HURRICANE FORCE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS.

RAIN BECOMING FREQUENT AND HEAVY RAIN WITH SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. FLOODING INCLUDING SEA FLOODING OF LOW-LYING COASTAL AREAS. VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITH DAMAGING HEAVY SWELLS.

FORECAST:
12HRS VALID AT 311800 UTC NEAR 19.7S 170.3E MOV SW 3KT WITH 85KT CLOSE TO CENTRE.
24HRS VALID AT 010600 UTC NEAR 20.3S 169.9E MOV SSW 3KT WITH 90KT CLOSE TO CENTRE.

OUTLOOK:
36HRS VALID AT 011800 UTC NEAR 21.0S 169.7E MOV S 5KT WITH 90KT CLOSE TO CENTRE.
48HRS VALID AT 020600 UTC NEAR 21.9S 169.5E MOV S 5KT WITH 80KT CLOSE TO CENTRE.

THE NEXT SPECIAL ADVISORY FOR VANUATU ON SEVERE TC GENE WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 311430 UTC.

VANUATU MET PLEASE ACKNOWLEDGE RECEIPT OF THIS BULLETIN.

______________________________________

From the Vanuatu Meteorological Service

Vanuatu Advisory
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Tropical cyclone Warning Number 6 for Tafea Province

This is Tropical cyclone warning number 6 issued by the Vanuatu Meteorological Services at 6pm, local time the 31st of January 2008 for the provinces of Shefa and Tafea.

At 5:00pm local time, Tropical cyclone Gene was relocated at 19.2 degrees South and 171.3 degrees East. This location places Gene at the top left corner of Square letter K, Number 9 (K, 9) of the Vanuatu tropical cyclone tracking map. This is about 200KM southeast of Erromango Island and 100 KM northeast of Futuna Island. TC Gene has moved west-southwest at 07 KM/HR (04 Knots) in the past 12 hours.

The central pressure of the system is estimated at 955hPa. Winds close to the centre estimated at 145 KM/HR (80 Knots). Based on its forecast track, TC Gene is forecast to be at Square Letter I, Number 9 (I, 9) of the Tropical Cyclone Tracking Map within the next 6 to 12 hours, and at square letter I, number 10 (I, 10) within the next 12 to 18 hours.

Damaging Storm Force Winds of 90 to 110 KM/HR (50 to 60 knots) will affect Futuna Island within the next 6 to 12 hours. Winds over Tafea will increase to destructive hurricane force winds of 150 KM/HR (80 knots) within the next 12 to 18 hours.

Strong gusty winds of 45 KM/HR (25 knots) will likely affect Shefa Province later tonight.

The sea is very rough in the affected areas with heavy swells. People, including sea going vessels are strongly advice not to go out to sea until the system moves out of the area. Heavy rainfall and flooding, including coastal flooding is expected over the southern islands. Communities and individuals over the southern islands living near or along rivers banks, along coastal areas, on flat plains or in areas prone to land slides are advised to seek safe shelter.

The Vanuatu Meteorological Service will issue the next warning on TC Gene at 9:00pm. People over Tafea province are advised to listen to Radio Vanuatu for the latest information on this system.
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre
Telephone: (678) 22932

*
NM – Nautical Miles
*
KM – Kilometres
*
M – Miles
*
KM/HR – Kilometre per hour
*
K – Knots
*
hPa - hectoPascal

_________________________________
APCEDI will continue to monitor the progress of this system.

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator
http://www.afap.org/apcedi/

To donate to AFAP's Disaster Preparedness, Relief and Rehabilitation Programs in Asia and the Pacific, go to http://www.afap.org and click on the "Donate On-Line" icon in the top right-hand corner.

To sign up for AFAP's free APCEDI email service, please go to http://www.afap.org/apcedi/ and register your email address.

APCEDI Alert SP/Fj 15P Gene #5-2008: Cyclone Gene Strengthens as it approaches Southern Vanuatu; Cyclone Warning for Tanna, Erromango and Anatom

The RSMC-Nadi Tropical Cyclone Centre, the Joint Typhoon Warning Centre continue to issue guidance on Tropical Cyclone Gene that is now approaching Southern Vanuatu.

The centre of Cyclone Gene is located 290 km east of of the Vanuatu Island of Erromango at 8 PM this evening Vanuatu time. Gene has slowed its forward speed in the last few hours and is now moving to the southwest at 6 km/hr. Cyclone Gene has strengthened more than expected this afternoon and forecasts call for more intensification as it approaches Southern Vanuatu.

The current forecast map shows Gene continuing to move toward the southernmost islands of Vanuatu. At its current speed and forecast direction, it will reach Southern Vanuatu later tomorrow morning and pass between the southernmost Vanuatu islands of Tanna and Anatom.

Cyclone Gene is currently at Category 1 strength on the Saffir Simpson Scale. This equates to a minimal Category 3 on the Australia Scale. It is now forecast to increase in strength as it moves southwestward toward Vanuatu and should pass the southernmost Vanuatu islands at Category 1-2 strength on the Saffir Simpson Scale, which equates to Category 3 on the Australia Scale.

Cyclone Warnings remain in place for Southern Vanuatu including the islands of Erromango, Tanna and Anatom and all adjacent small islands.

New Caledonia has also been put on Cyclone Alert as it could take a blow from Gene once it passes through southern Vanuatu. The New Caledonian islands of Lifou, Maré and Ouvéa should be particularly watchful as the storm would likely hit them first before the main island of Grande Terre.

All residents and interests in Southern Vanuatu and New Caledonia should monitor the progress of the storm as it approaches and rush any cyclone preparations to completion as the Government issues advice. As Cyclone Gene increases in strength it is becoming a more dangerous storm. Considerable damage could be expected on any islands near to where the centre of the storm passes.

EFFECTS OF CYLCONE GENE ON FIJI
Gene caused widespread minor damage across both of the main Fiji islands of Viti Levu and Vanua Levu as well as Taveuni and the Yasawa and Mamanuca Groups and many other outliers near the big islands. Many trees were brought down, and power was temporarily cut to wide areas including Suva and Nadi. Widespread low-level crop and vegetation damage is also reported as well as superficial damage to some homes and buildings. However, the lower strength of the storm limited more severe wind damage. Power has been already restored in many areas. River flooding from continuing rains associated with the system has destroyed some homes in both Navua and Nadi, and in a few other areas. Two people were killed as an indirect result of Cyclone Gene from house fires while using candles to light their homes when the power went out. FijiLive has some good e-coverage.


ALERTS AND WARNINGS

VANUATU

A CYCLONE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ERROMANGO, TANNA, ANATOM AND ALL SMALLER ADJACENT ISLANDS INCLUDING ANIWA AND FUTUNA.
A CYCLONE WATCH AND ALERT REMAINS IN FORCE FOR CENTRAL VANUATU.

FIJI

A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR VITI LEVU, BEQA, VATULELE, KADAVU AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS AND SOUTHERN YASAWAS AND MAMANUCAS.

NEW CALEDONIA/ NOUVELLE CALEDONIE

A CYCLONE WATCH AND ALERT HAS BEEN RAISED FOR ALL NEW CALEDONIA INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF LIFOU, OUVÉA AND MARÉ.

____________________

From the RSMC-Nadi Tropical Cyclone Centre

Vanuatu Advisory

Special Advisory Number SEVEN for Vanuatu on TC GENE ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Jan 30/0851 UTC 2008 UTC.

SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE GENE CENTRE [970HPA] CAT 3 NEAR 18.6S 173.2E AT 300600 UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED ON MTSAT EIR AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHWEST ABOUT 3 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS ESTIMATED AT 65 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE. EXPECT WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 20 MILES OF CENTRE. EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 40 MILES OF CENTRE. EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 120 MILES OF CENTRE IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND WITHIN 100 MILES ELSEWHERE.

COLD TOPS OVER LLCC HAS ENABLED INTENSIFICATION WITHIN THE LAST SIX HOURS. COOLING TO SOUTHEAST OF LLCC. OUTFLOW GOOD TO EAST BUT RESTRICTED ELSEWHERE. STEERING STILL INFLUENCED BY MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH WHICH IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO ALLOW POLEWARD MOVEMENT IN NEXT 48HRS. CIMSS SHOWING MODERATE SHEAR OVER SYSTEM BUT DECREASING SHEAR ALONG FORECAST TRACK. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON MET=4.5 AND PT=4.5, THUS T4.5/4.5/D1.0/24HRS. CONSENSUS TAKES THE CYCLONE WEST-SOUTHWEST IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS BEFORE TURNING SOUTH.

ON ITS PROJECTED TRACK, SEVERE TC GENE IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH OR CLOSE TO ISLANDS ABOUT AND SOUTH OF TANNA. EXPECT GALE FORCE WINDS TO DEVELOP WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS SOUTH OF ERROMANGO. WINDS INCREASING TO VERY DESTRUCTIVE HURRICANE FORCE WINDS AND DESTRUCTIVE STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS SOUTH OF TANNA.

OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND A FEW SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHERN VANUATU INCREASING TO FREQUENT AND HEAVY RAIN TOMORROW NIGHT. FLOODING INCLUDING SEA FLOODING OF LOW-LYING COASTAL AREAS. SEAS BECOMING ROUGH TO HIGH WITH DAMAGING HEAVY EASTERLY SWELLS.

FORECAST:
12HRS VALID AT 301800 UTC NEAR 19.3S 171.7E MOV WSW 9KT WITH 70KT CLOSE TO CENTRE.
24HRS VALID AT 310600 UTC NEAR 20.0S 170.1E MOV WSW 6KT WITH 85KT CLOSE TO CENTRE.

OUTLOOK:
36HRS VALID AT 311800 UTC NEAR 20.7S 169.1E MOV SW 7KT WITH 90KT CLOSE TO CENTRE.
48HRS VALID AT 010600 UTC NEAR 21.5S 168.2E MOV SSW 5KT WITH 90KT CLOSE TO CENTRE.

THE NEXT SPECIAL ADVISORY FOR VANUATU ON SEVERE TC GENE WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 301430 UTC.

VANUATU MET PLEASE ACKNOWLEDGE RECEIPT OF THIS BULLETIN.

_________________________________
APCEDI will continue to monitor the progress of this system.

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator
http://www.afap.org/apcedi/

To donate to AFAP's Disaster Preparedness, Relief and Rehabilitation Programs in Asia and the Pacific, go to http://www.afap.org and click on the "Donate On-Line" icon in the top right-hand corner.

To sign up for AFAP's free APCEDI email service, please go to http://www.afap.org/apcedi/ and register your email address.

APCEDI Alert SP/Fj 15P Gene #4-2008: Cyclone Gene Closes in on Southern Vanuatu as Cyclone Warnings Raised for Tanna, Erromango and Anatom.

The RSMC-Nadi Tropical Cyclone Centre, the Joint Typhoon Warning Centre continue to issue guidance on Tropical Cyclone Gene that is now closing in on Southern Vanuatu.

The centre of Cyclone Gene is located 350 km east of of the Vanuatu Island of Erromango at 10 AM this morning Vanuatu time. Gene is moving to the west-southwest at 15 km/hr, and should hold its current strength as it approaches Vanuatu, but could very slightly intensify or weaken due to conditions later tomorrow.

The current forecast map shows Gene continuing to moving away from Fiji and toward Southern Vanuatu. At its current speed and forecast direction, it will reach Southern Vanuatu tonight and cross the Southern part of the country between Erromango and Anatom close to the island of Tanna.

Cyclone Gene is currently at Tropical Storm strength on the Saffir Simpson Scale. This equates to Category 1 on the Australia Scale. It will maintain its strength as it moves southwestward toward Vanuatu and should cross Southern Vanuatu at Tropical Storm strength on the Saffir Simpson Scale, which equates to Category 1 on the Australia Scale.

Cyclone Warnings have now been raised for the Southern Vanuatu including the islands of Erromango, Tanna and Anatom and all adjacent small islands.

New Caledonia has also been put on Cyclone Alert as it could take a blow from Gene once it passes through southern Vanuatu. The New Caledonian islands of Lifou, Maré and Ouvéa should be particularly watchful as the storm would likely hit them first before the main island of Grande Terre.

A gale warning that was in effect of the western half of Viti Levu, Vatulele, Kadavu, the Yasawa And the Mamanuca Group and nearby smaller islands has now been canceled, although a strong wind warning remains in force for the these western areas of Fiji.

All residents and interests in Central and Southern Vanuatu and New Caledonia should monitor the progress of the storm as it approaches and rush any cyclone preparations to completion as the Government issues advice. All residents and interests in western Fiji should continue monitor the storm carefully and follow all government advice as Cyclone Gene moves away.

Gene caused widespread minor damage across both of the main Fiji islands of Viti Levu and Vanua Levu as well as Taveuni and the Yasawa and Mamanuca Groups and many other outliers near the big islands. Many tree are down and power was temporarily cut to wide areas including Suva and Nadi. Widespread low-level crop and vegetation damage is also reported as well as superficial damage to some homes and buildings. However, the lower strength of the storm limited any severe or moderate damage. Power has been already restored in Many areas today and this evening as the effects of the storm diminish as Gene moves away from Fiji.


ALERTS AND WARNINGS

VANUATU

A CYCLONE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ERROMANGO, TANNA, ANATOM AND ALL SMALLER ADJACENT ISLANDS.
A CYCLONE WATCH AND ALERT REMAINS IN FORCE FOR CENTRAL VANUATU.

FIJI

A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR VITI LEVU, BEQA, VATULELE, KADAVU AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS AND SOUTHERN YASAWAS AND MAMANUCAS.

NEW CALEDONIA/ NOUVELLE CALEDONIE

A CYCLONE WATCH AND ALERT HAS BEEN RAISED FOR ALL NEW CALEDONIA INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF LIFOU, OUVÉA AND MARÉ.

____________________

Special Advisory Number FIVE for Vanuatu on TC GENE ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Jan 29/2010 UTC 2008 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE GENE CENTRE [990HPA] CAT 1 NEAR 18.5S 173.8E AT 291800 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON MTSAT EIR IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION. CYCLONE MOVING WEST-SOUTHWEST ABOUT 8 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS ESTIMATED AT 45 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE. EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 90 MILES OF CENTRE IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND WITHIN 70 MILES ELSEWHERE.

ORGANISATION STEADY PAST 12 HOURS. COLD CONVECTION CONSOLIDATION IN SOUTHERN FLANK. OUTFLOW GOOD TO EAST BUT RESTRICTED ELSEWHERE. STEERING STILL INFLUENCED BY MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. CIMSS SHOWING MODERATE SHEAR OVER SYSTEM BUT DECREASING SHEAR ALONG FORECAST TRACK. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON 0.70 WRAP ON LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDING DT=3.0, MET AND PAT AGREE, THUS T3.0/3.0/S/24HRS.

ON THIS FORECAST TRACK, GENE IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE DAMAGING GALE FORCE WINDS TO ISLANDS IN SOUTHERN VANUATU, ABOUT AND SOUTH OF TANNA WITHIN THE NEXT 18 TO 24 HOURS. RAIN DEVELOPING AND BECOMING MORE FREQUENT AND HEAVY WITH SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHERN VANUATU. FLOODING INCLUDING SEA FLOODING OF LOW-LYING COASTAL AREAS. SEAS BECOMING ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH WITH DAMAGING HEAVY EASTERLY SWELLS.

FORECAST:
12HRS VALID AT 300600 UTC NEAR 18.7S 171.9E MOV W 9KT WITH 45KT CLOSE TO CENTRE.
24HRS VALID AT 301800 UTC NEAR 19.0S 170.4E MOV WSW 8KT WITH 45KT CLOSE TO CENTRE.

OUTLOOK:
36HRS VALID AT 310600 UTC NEAR 19.6S 168.9E MOV WSW 8KT WITH 45KT CLOSE TO CENTRE.
48HRS VALID AT 311800 UTC NEAR 20.4S 167.9E MOV SW 6KT WITH 35KT CLOSE TO CENTRE.

THE NEXT SPECIAL ADVISORY FOR VANUATU ON TC GENE WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 300230 UTC

VANUATU MET PLEASE ACKNOWLEDGE RECEIPT OF THIS BULLETIN.

_________________________________
APCEDI will continue to monitor the progress of this system.

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator
http://www.afap.org/apcedi/

To donate to AFAP's Disaster Preparedness, Relief and Rehabilitation Programs in Asia and the Pacific, go to http://www.afap.org and click on the "Donate On-Line" icon in the top right-hand corner.

To sign up for AFAP's free APCEDI email service, please go to http://www.afap.org/apcedi/ and register your email address.

APCEDI Alert SP/Fj 15P Gene #3-2008: Cyclone Gene Moves Toward Vanuatu After Causing Widespread Minor Damage in Fiji

The RSMC-Nadi Tropical Cyclone Centre, the Joint Typhoon Warning Centre continue to issue guidance on Tropical Cyclone Gene that is now heading toward Vanuatu.

The centre of Cyclone Gene is located 240 km west-southwest of Nadi on the main Fiji island of Viti Levu at 09 PM this evening Fiji time. Gene is moving to the southwest at 15 km/hr, and should hold its current strength as it approaches Vanuatu, but could very slightly intensify or weaken due to conditions later tomorrow.

The current forecast map shows Gene continuing to moving away from Fiji and toward Central and Southern Vanuatu. At its current speed and forecast direction, it will close in on Central and Southern Vanuatu tomorrow and cross the country near somewhere between Efate and and the southernmost island of Anatom tomorrow afternoon probably close to the island of Tanna.

Cyclone Gene is currently at borderline Tropical Storm/ Category 1 strength on the Saffir Simpson Scale. This equates to Category 2 on the Australia Scale. It will gradually increase in strength as it moves westward toward Vanuatu and should cross Vanuatu at Category 1 strength on the Saffir Simpson Scale, which equates to Category 2 on the Australia Scale.

Gene has caused widespread minor damage across both of the main Fiji islands of Viti Levu and Vanua Levu as well as Taveuni and the Yasawa and Mamanuca Groups and many other outliers near the big islands. Many tree are down and power was temporarily cut to wide areas including Suva and Nadi. Widespread low-level crop and vegetation damage is also reported as well as superficial damage to some homes and buildings. However, the lower strength of the storm limited any severe or moderate damage. Power has been already restored in Many areas today and this evening as the effects of the storm diminish as Gene moves away from Fiji..

A gale warning that was in effect of the western half of Viti Levu, Vatulele, Kadavu, the Yasawa And the Mamanuca Group And Nearby Smaller Islands has now been cancelled, although a strong wind warning remains in force for the these western areas of Fiji.

Central and Southern Vanuatu remain on Cyclone Alert as the storm approaches the southern part of the country. Islands of particular concern are Efate, Erromango, Tanna and Anatom and all the small outliers around these larger islands. A Cyclone Warning will likely be put in place for Southern Vanuatu early tomorrow.

New Caledonia has also been put on Cyclone Alert as it could take a blow from Gene once it passes through southern Vanuatu.

All residents and interests in western Fiji should continue monitor the storm carefully and follow all government advice as Cyclone Gene moves away. All residents and interests in Central and Southern Vanuatu and New Caledonia should monitor the progress of the storm as it approaches and rush any cyclone preparations to completion as the Government issues advice.


ALERTS AND WARNINGS

FIJI
A GALE WARNING PREVIOUSLY IN FORCE FOR WESTERN VITI LEVU, WEST OF A LINE FROM BA TO SIGATOKA, YASAWA AND MAMANUCA GROUP AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS IS NOW CANCELLED.

A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR VITI LEVU, BEQA, VATULELE, KADAVU AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS AND SOUTHERN YASAWAS AND MAMANUCAS.

VANUATU

A CYCLONE WATCH AND ALERT REMAINS IN FORCE FOR ALL CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VANUATU.

NEW CALEDONIA/ NOUVELLE CALEDONIE

A CYCLONE WATCH AND ALERT HAS BEEN RAISED FOR ALL NEW CALEDONIA.


____________________

From the RSMC-Nadi Tropical Cyclone Centre


Fiji Advisory
Special Weather Bulletin Number TWELVE for Fiji ON TROPICAL CYCLONE GENE ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI at 11:13pm on Tuesday the 29th of January 2008

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.

A GALE WARNING PREVIOUSLY IN FORCE FOR WESTERN VITI LEVU, WEST OF A LINE FROM BA TO SIGATOKA, YASAWA AND MAMANUCA GROUP AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS IS NOW CANCELLED.

A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR VITI LEVU, BEQA, VATULELE, KADAVU AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS AND SOUTHERN YASAWAS AND MAMANUCAS.

TROPICAL CYCLONE GENE CENTRE 990HPA, CATEGORY 1, WAS LOCATED NEAR 18 DECIMAL 5 SOUTH 175 DECIMAL 3 EAST OR ABOUT 240 KILOMETRES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF NADI AT 9PM. THE CYCLONE CONTINUES TO MOVE FURTHER AWAY FROM THE COUNTRY. CLOSE TO THE CENTRE THE CYCLONE IS ESTIMATED TO HAVE WINDS OF AVERAGE SPEEDS TO 85 KM/HR WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 120 KM/HR. DAMAGING GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED OUT TO 160 KM OF CENTRE IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND OUT TO 110 KM OF CENTRE IN THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

FOR VITI LEVU, BEQA, VATULELE, KADAVU AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS, STRONG NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WITH SPEEDS UPTO 45 TO 50 KM/HR WITH GUSTS TO 80 KM/HR. WINDS GRADUALLY EASING FROM TONIGHT. FURTHER RAIN HEAVY AT TIMES WITH SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS AND FLOODING OF LOW-LYING AREAS IS STILL TO BE EXPECTED.

FOR THE REST OF FIJI, EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS FRESH AND GUSTY AT TIMES GRADUALLY EASING TO MODERATE. GENERALLY CLOUDY WITH OCCASIONAL RAIN, POSSIBLY HEAVY AT TIMES, AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.

FOR ROTUMA, FRESH AND GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS. OCCASIONAL RAIN, HEAVY AT TIMES AND SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. ROUGH SEAS WITH A MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY SWELL.

The following information is provided especially for the mariners: A GALE WIND WARNING IS NOW IN FORCE FOR WATERS ABOUT CONWAY REEF. EXPECT WINDS OF 45 KNOTS WITHIN 25 MILES OF CENTRE WITH VERY HIGH SEAS. WINDS OF 35 TO 45 KNOTS WITHIN 90 MILES OF CENTRE IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND 70 MILES OF CENTRE IN THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. HIGH SEAS. DAMAGING HEAVY SWELLS.

A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR THE REST OF FIJI WATERS: WINDS FROM THE NORTHWEST TO EAST 20 TO 30 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS. ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS. MODERATE SWELLS. VERY POOR VISIBILITY IN HEAVY RAIN AND SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. FOR MARINE WEATHER BULLETIN, PLEASE REFER TO THE ROUTINE MARINE BULLETIN TO BE ISSUED AT 1.30AM.

THIS WILL BE THE LAST SPECIAL WEATHER BULLETIN ISSUED FOR FIJI AND THE NEXT ISSUE OF THE ROUTINE PUBLIC WEATHER BULLETIN WILL BE AT 5.30 AM.

________________________

From the RSMC-Nadi Tropical Cyclone Centre

Vanuatu Advisory
Special Advisory Number THREE for Vanuatu on TC GENE ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Jan 29/0834 UTC 2008 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE GENE CENTRE [985HPA] CAT 2 NEAR 18.5S 175.5E AT 290600 UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED ON MTSAT EIR IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE OBSERVATION. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHWEST ABOUT 8 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS ESTIMATED AT 50 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE. EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 25 MILES OF CENTRE. EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 90 MILES OF CENTRE IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND WITHIN 70 MILES ELSEWHERE.

CONVECTION IS DISSIPATING AS QUICKLY AS IT DEVELOPS WITH CLOUD TOPS WARMING ABOUT THE WESTERN FLANK. SYSTEM IS EXPERIENCING MODERATE SHEAR ALONG THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN FLANK. STEERING INFLUENCED BY A SOUTHWESTERLY DEEP LAYER MEAN FLOW OVER AREA WITH A MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE LOCATED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF TC GENE. THIS SUPPORTS THE LATEST MODEL RUNS DRIVING THEH CYCLONE ALONG A SOUTHWESTERLY TRACK FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON 0.95 WRAP ON LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDING DT=3.5, MET AND PAT AGREE, THUS T3.5/3.5/D1.0/24HRS.

IF GENE MAINTAINS A SOUTHWESTERLY MOVEMENT, THIS WILL LIMIT FURTHER DEVELOPMENT GIVEN THAT IT WILL BE EXPOSED TO INCREASING SHEAR. ON THIS CURRENT TRACK, TC GENE IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE DAMAGING GALE FORCE WINDS TO SOUTHERN VANUATU WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. CLOUD INCREASING WITH RAIN DEVELOPING AND BECOMING MORE FREQUENT IN THE NEXT 36 HOURS, WITH SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. SEA FLOODING OF LOW-LYING COASTAL AREAS. SEAS BECOMING ROUGH WITH HEAVY EASTERLY SWELLS.

FORECAST:
12HRS VALID AT 291800 UTC NEAR 18.7S 174.1E MOV SW 10KT WITH 50KT CLOSE TO CENTRE.
24HRS VALID AT 300600 UTC NEAR 18.9S 172.0E MOV SW 10KT WITH 45KT CLOSE TO CENTRE.

OUTLOOK:
36HRS VALID AT 301800 UTC NEAR 19.5S 170.5E MOV WSW 8KT WITH 45KT CLOSE TO CENTRE.
48HRS VALID AT 310600 UTC NEAR 20.0S 169.2E MOV WSW 7KT WITH 40KT CLOSE TO CENTRE.

THE NEXT SPECIAL ADVISORY FOR VANUATU ON TC GENE WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 291430 UTC

VANUATU MET PLEASE ACKNOWLEDGE RECEIPT OF THIS BULLETIN.

_________________________________
APCEDI will continue to monitor the progress of this system.

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator
http://www.afap.org/apcedi/

To donate to AFAP's Disaster Preparedness, Relief and Rehabilitation Programs in Asia and the Pacific, go to http://www.afap.org and click on the "Donate On-Line" icon in the top right-hand corner.

To sign up for AFAP's free APCEDI email service, please go to http://www.afap.org/apcedi/ and register your email address.

APCEDI Alert SP/Fj 15P Gene #2-2008: Cyclone Gene Moves Away from Fiji after Causing Widespread Minor Damage on Large Islands. Vanuatu Next.

The RSMC-Nadi Tropical Cyclone Centre, the Joint Typhoon Warning Centre continue to issue guidance on Tropical Cyclone Gene that is now moving away from the Fiji Islands and heading toward Vanuatu.

The centre of Cyclone Gene is located 100km west of Nadi on the main Fiji island of Viti Levu at 07 AM this morning Fiji time. Gene is moving to the west-northwest at 20 km/hr, and is intensifying slowly.

The current forecast map shows Gene moving away from Fiji and toward Vanuatu. At its current speed and forecast direction, it will close in on Vanuatu tonight and cross the country near Port Vila tomorrow.

Cyclone Gene is currently at borderline Tropical Storm/ Category 1 strength on the Saffir Simpson Scale. This equates to Category 2 on the Australia Scale. It will gradually increase in strength as it moves westward toward Vanuatu and should cross Vanuatu at Category 1 strength on the Saffir Simpson Scale, which equates to Category 2 on the Australia Scale.

Gene has caused widespread minor damage across both of the main Fiji islands of Viti Levu and Vanua Levu as well as Taveuni and the Yasawa and Mamanuca Groups and many other outliers near the big islands. Many tree are down and power is out to wide areas including Suva and Nadi. Widespread low-level crop and vegetation damage is also reported as well as superficial damage to some homes and buildings. However, the lower strength of the storm limited any severe or moderate damage. Power will likely be restored to most urban areas today.

At its current low strength, Gene will continue to cause widespread minor damage on the western side of Viti Levu and for the Yasawa and Mamanuca Groups as it moves away. Kadavu may also get some light damage.

A gale warning is in effect of the western half of Viti Levu, Vatulele, Kadavu, the Yasawa And the Mamanuca Group And Nearby Smaller Islands, and a strong wind warning remains in force for the rest of the Fiji Group. Vanuatu has now been put on Cyclone Alert as the storm approaches the country.

All residents and interests in western Fiji should monitor the storm carefully and follow all government advice as Cyclone Gene moves away. All residents and interests in Vanuatu should monitor the progress of the storm as it approaches and rush any cyclone preparations to completion as the Government issues advice.


ALERTS AND WARNINGS

FIJI

A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR THE WESTERN HALF OF VITI LEVU, VATULELE, YASAWA AND MAMANUCA GROUP AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS.

A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR THE REST OF THE FIJI GROUP.

VANUATU

A CYCLONE WATCH AND ALERT HAS BEEN RAISED FOR ALL OF VANUATU.
____________________

From the RSMC-Nadi Tropical Cyclone Centre


Fiji Advisory
Special Weather Bulletin Number SEVEN for Fiji ON TROPICAL CYCLONE
GENE
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI at 7:57am on Tuesday the 29th of January 2008

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.

A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR THE WESTERN HALF OF VITI LEVU, VATULELE, YASAWA AND MAMANUCA GROUP AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS.

A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR THE REST OF THE FIJI GROUP.

TROPICAL CYCLONE GENE CENTRE 985HPA, CATEGORY 2, WAS LOCATED NEAR 17 DECIMAL 6 SOUTH 176 DECIMAL 5 EAST ABOUT 100 KILOMETRES WEST OF NADI AT 7 AM THIS MORNING. THE CYCLONE HAS BECOME SLOW MOVING BUT EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST ABOUT 20 KM/HR IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS.

THE CYCLONE IS INTENSIFYING SLOWLY. CLOSE TO THE CENTRE THE CYCLONE IS ESTIMATED TO HAVE WINDS OF AVERAGE SPEEDS TO 95 KM/HR WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 150 KM/HR. DESTRUCTIVE STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO ABOUT 45 KILOMETRES FROM THE CENTRE AND DAMAGING GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED OUT TO 160 KM OF CENTRE IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND OUT TO 110 KM OF CENTRE IN THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

ON THIS TRACK THE CYCLONE CENTRE IS EXPECTED TO LIE ABOUT 160KM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF NADI AT 12 NOON TODAY AND ABOUT 290 KM WEST OF NADI AT 6PM TONIGHT.

FOR THE WESTERN HALF OF VITI LEVU, VATULELE, YASAWA AND MAMANUCA GROUP AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS, EXPECT DAMAGING GALE FORCE WINDS WITH AVERAGE SPEEDS OF 75 TO 85 KM/HR WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 140 KM/HR. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WITH SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. FLOODING INCLUDING SEA FLOODING OF LOW-LYING COASTAL AREAS EXPECTED.

FOR THE REST OF FIJI, STRONG NORTHWEST TO NORTHEAST WINDS WITH SPEEDS UPTO 60 KM/HR WITH GUSTS TO 100 KM/HR. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WITH SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS.

FOR ROTUMA, FRESH AND GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS. OCCASIONAL RAIN, HEAVY AT TIMES AND SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. ROUGH SEAS WITH A MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY SWELL.

The following information is provided especially for the mariners: EXPECT WINDS OF 50 KNOTS WITHIN 25 MILES OF CENTRE WITH VERY HIGH SEAS. WINDS OF 35 TO 45 KNOTS WITHIN 90 MILES OF CENTRE IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND 70 MILES OF CENTRE IN THE NORTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE. HIGH SEAS. DAMAGING HEAVY SWELLS.

FOR THE REST OF FIJI WATERS:
WINDS FROM THE NORTHWEST TO NORTHEAST 25 TO 30 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 55 KNOTS.
VERY ROUGH SEAS AND DAMAGING HEAVY SWELLS.

VERY POOR VISIBILITY IN HEAVY RAIN AND SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS.

THE NEXT SPECIAL WEATHER BULLETIN FOR FIJI ON TC GENE WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 11AM TODAY.

________________________

From the RSMC-Nadi Tropical Cyclone Centre

Vanuatu Advisory
Special Advisory Number ONE for Vanuatu on TC GENE ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Jan 28/2050 UTC 2008 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE 11F GENE CENTRE [985HPA] TROPICAL CYCLONE GENE CENTRE [985HPA] CAT 2 NEAR 17.6S 176.5E AT 281800 UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED ON MTSAT EIR IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE OBSERVATION. CYCLONE HAS BECOME SLOW MOVING BUT EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST ABOUT 10 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. CYCLONE
INTENSIFYING SLOWLY. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS ESTIMATED AT 50 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE INCREASING TO 60 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 18 HOURS. EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 25 MILES OF CENTRE. EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 90 MILES OF CENTRE IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND WITHIN 70 MILES ELSEWHERE.

ORGANISATION DECREASED SLIGHTLY DUE INTERACTION WITH VITI LEVU LANDMASS. CONVECTION WARMED PAST 6 HOURS AS A RESULT. OUTFLOW GOOD TO EAST AND DEVELOPING ELSEWHERE. CIMSS INDICATES MINIMAL SHEAR OVER CYCLONE. STEERING INFLUENCED BY DEEP-MEAN LAYER FLOW OVER AREA AND MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO SOUTHEAST. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON SHEAR WITH LLCC ABOUT 20NM INTO DG YIELDING DT=3.5, MET=3.0, PAT=3.5, THUS T3.5/3.5/D1.5/24HRS. CONSENSUS TRACKS THE CYCLONE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH SOME FURTHER INTENSIFICATION.

IF GENE MAINTAINS ITS CURRENT TRACK AND INTENSIFICATION TREND IT IS ANTICIPATED TO CAUSE DAMAGING GALE FORCE WINDS OR STRONGER OVER CENTRAL VANUATU IN THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS. CLOUD INCREASING WITH RAIN DEVELOPING AND BECOMING MORE FREQUENT IN THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS, WITH SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. SEA FLOODING OF LOW-LYING COASTAL AREAS. SEAS BECOMING ROUGH WITH HEAVY EASTERLY SWELLS.

FORECAST:
12HRS VALID AT 290600 UTC NEAR 18.2S 174.8E MOV WSW 10KT WITH 55KT CLOSE TO CENTRE.
24HRS VALID AT 291800 UTC NEAR 17.9S 172.4E MOV W 10KT WITH 60KT CLOSE TO CENTRE.

OUTLOOK:
36HRS VALID AT 300600 UTC NEAR 17.5S 170.2E MOV WNW 10KT WITH 65KT CLOSE TO CENTRE.
48HRS VALID AT 301800 UTC NEAR 17.3S 168.8E MOV W 07KT WITH 80KT CLOSE TO CENTRE.

THE NEXT SPECIAL ADVISORY FOR VANUATU ON TC GENE WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 290230 UTC

VANUATU MET PLEASE ACKNOWLEDGE RECEIPT OF THIS BULLETIN.

_________________________________
APCEDI will continue to monitor the progress of this system.

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator
http://www.afap.org/apcedi/

To donate to AFAP's Disaster Preparedness, Relief and Rehabilitation Programs in Asia and the Pacific, go to http://www.afap.org and click on the "Donate On-Line" icon in the top right-hand corner.

To sign up for AFAP's free APCEDI email service, please go to http://www.afap.org/apcedi/ and register your email address.

APCEDI Alert SP/Fj 15P Gene #1-2008: Cyclone Gene forms over Fiji.

The RSMC-Nadi Tropical Cyclone Centre, the Joint Typhoon Warning Centre have begun to issue guidance on Tropical Cyclone Gene that has formed earlier today over the Fiji Islands.

The centre of Cyclone Gene is located just offshore to the north of Rakiraki on the main Fiji island of Viti Levu at 08 PM this evening Fiji time. Gene is moving to the southwest at 20 km/hr, and is intensifying slowly.

The current forecast map shows Gene moving across the Northern Sections of Viti Levu and the Yasawas tonight before passing out into the Pacific Ocean between Vanuatu and Fiji. Cyclone Gene is at minimal Tropical Storm strength on the Saffir Simpson Scale. This equates to Category 1 on the Australia Scale. It will gradually increase in strength as it moves westward toward Vanuatu. At its current low strength, damage should be minimal as Gene makes its way across Fiji although some moderate localised damage is possible in exposed areas.

A gale warning is in effect for Viti Levu, Beqa, Vatulele, Kadavu, the Western half of Vanua Levu, Lomaiviti Group, Yasawa And the Mamanuca Group And Nearby Smaller Islands, and a strong wind warning remains in force for the rest of the Fiji
Group.

All residents and interests in Fiji should monitor the storm carefully and follow all government advice as Cyclone Gene passes over. It is possible that if Gene continues on its westward course, alerts will need to be raised for Vanuatu tomorrow. All interests in Vanuatu should monitor the progress of the storm and be ready to take action if the Government issues any advice.


ALERTS AND WARNINGS

FIJI

GALE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR VITI LEVU, BEQA, VATULELE, KADAVU, WESTERN HALF OF VANUA LEVU, LOMAIVITI GROUP, YASAWA AND MAMANUCA GROUP AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS.

A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR THE REST OF THE FIJI GROUP.
____________________

From the RSMC-Nadi Tropical Cyclone Centre


Fiji Advisory

Special Weather Bulletin Number THREE for Fiji ON TROPICAL CYCLONE GENE ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI at 8:04pm on Monday the 28th of January 2008

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.

A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR VITI LEVU, BEQA, VATULELE, KADAVU, WESTERN HALF OF VANUA LEVU, LOMAIVITI GROUP, YASAWA AND MAMANUCA GROUP AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS.

A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR THE REST OF THE FIJI GROUP.

TROPICAL CYCLONE GENE CENTRE 990HPA, CATEGORY 1, WAS LOCATED NEAR 17 DECIMAL 4 SOUTH 178 DECIMAL 2 EAST CLOSE TO RAKIRAKI AT 6PM THIS AFTERNOON. THE CYCLONE IS MOVING SOUTHWEST ABOUT 20 KM/HR AND INTENSIFYING SLOWLY. CLOSE TO THE CENTRE THE CYCLONE IS ESTIMATED TO HAVE WINDS OF AVERAGE SPEEDS of 65 TO 75KM/HR WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 140 KM/HR. WINDS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 85 KM/HR IN THE NEXT 18 HOURS. DAMAGING GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED OUT TO 150 KM OF CENTRE IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND OUT TO 110 KM OF CENTRE IN THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

ON THIS TRACK THE CYCLONE CENTRE IS EXPECTED MOVE ACROSS VITI LEVU TONIGHT AND SHOULD BE TO THE WEST OF THE COUNTRY BY MIDDAY TOMORROW.

FOR VITI LEVU, BEQA, VATULELE, KADAVU, WESTERN HALF OF VANUA LEVU, LOMAIVITI GROUP, YASAWA AND MAMANUCA GROUP AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS, EXPECT DAMAGING GALE FORCE WINDS WITH AVERAGE SPEEDS OF 65 TO 75KM/HR WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 140 KM/HR. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WITH SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. FLOODING INCLUDING FLOODING OF LOW-LYING COASTAL AREAS EXPECTED.

FOR THE REST OF FIJI, STRONG WINDS BETWEEN NORTH AND EAST WITH SPEEDS OF 45 TO 60 KM/HR WITH GUSTS TO 130KM/HR. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WITH SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS.

FOR ROTUMA, FRESH AND GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS. OCCASIONAL RAIN, HEAVY AT TIMES AND SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. ROUGH SEAS WITH A MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY SWELL.

The following information is provided especially for the mariners: EXPECT WINDS OF 35 TO 40 KNOTS WITHIN 80 MILES OF CENTRE IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND 60 MILES OF CENTRE IN THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. HIGH SEAS. DAMAGING HEAVY SWELLS.

FOR THE REST OF FIJI WATERS: WINDS FROM THE NORTH TO EAST 25 TO 30 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 80 KNOTS. DAMAGING HEAVY SWELLS. VERY POOR VISIBILITY IN HEAVY RAIN AND SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS.

THE NEXT SPECIAL WEATHER BULLETIN FOR FIJI ON TC GENE WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 2AM TOMORROW.

___________________________________________________________
APCEDI will continue to monitor the progress of this system.

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator
http://www.afap.org/apcedi/

To donate to AFAP's Disaster Preparedness, Relief and Rehabilitation Programs in Asia and the Pacific, go to http://www.afap.org and click on the "Donate On-Line" icon in the top right-hand corner.

To sign up for AFAP's free APCEDI email service, please go to http://www.afap.org/apcedi/ and register your email address.

APCEDI Alert SP/VN 10F Funa #2-2008: Cyclone Funa Strengthens Over Northern Vanuatu.

The RSMC-Nadi Tropical Cyclone Centre, the Joint Typhoon Warning Centre continues to issue guidance on Tropical Cyclone Funa that is currently passing across Northern Vanuatu.

The centre of Cyclone Funa is located just off the west coast of Maewo and off the north coast of Ambae at 10 AM this morning Fiji time. Funa is moving to the east at 15 km/hr, and is expected to turn more southeast later today.

The current forecast map shows Funa passing over Maewo before exiting Vanuatu out into the Pacific Ocean between Vanuatu and Fiji. Cyclone Funa is at borderline Tropical Storm/ Ctaegory 1 strength on the Saffir Simpson Scale. This equates to Category 2 on the Australia Scale. It will gradually increase in strength as it moves over Northern Vanuatu and exits into the open ocean.

Fortunately by the time Funa turns into major Cyclone it will have cleared Vanuatu and will only pose a major risk to maritime interests between Vanuatu and Fiji. Minimal damage to some moderate localised damage is possible for both Ambae and Maewo Islands and for Northern Pentecost Island especially in exposed coastal areas. Only minimal damage including a few trees and many branches down, and some minor crop damage was reported from Espiritu Santo as Funa crossed the island earlier this morning.

Cyclone Alerts and Gale Warnings continue for Northern Vanuatu and Watches for Central Vanuatu. On Funa's current track the islands of most concern include Maewo, Ambae and Northern Pentecost and any neighboring islets in and around these larger islands. All residents in these islands should monitor the storm carefully and follow all government advice as the cyclone passes over. All islands north of Efate should be on alert and monitor the situation. Interests in Temotu Province of the Solomons (including the Santa Cruz Group, Anuta and Tikopia) should also keep a close watch on the movement of this storm. Rough seas will be experienced throughout the area.


ALERTS AND WARNINGS

VANUATU

A CYCLONE WARNING IS IN FORCE FOR ESPIRITU SANTO, BANKS ISLANDS, MAEWO, AMBAE AND PENTECOST.

A HIGH WIND WARNING AND CYCLONE WATCH IS IN FORCE FOR THE REMAINDER OF VANUATU NORTH OF EFATE.

MARITIME WARNING FOR ROUGH SEAS IS IN EFFECT THROUGHOUT THE REGION.

SOLOMON ISLANDS

HIGH WIND WARNING AND MARINE ALERT FOR ROUGH SEAS IS IN EFFECT FOR TEMOTU PROVINCE INCLUDING ALL ISLANDS IN THE SANTA CRUZ GROUP AND ANUTA AND TIKOPIA.

______________________

From the RSMC-Nadi Tropical Cyclone Centre


Special Advisory - Vanuatu

Special Advisory Number FIVE for Vanuatu on TC FUNA ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Jan 16/2306 UTC 2008 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE 10F FUNA CENTRE [978HPA] CAT 2 NEAR 15.0S 167.1E AT 162200 UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED ON MTSAT VIS/EIR IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION, MICROWAVE AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. CYCLONE INTENSIFYING AND MOVING EAST AT 08 KNOTS BUT EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TURN SOUTHEAST IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS
ESTIMATED AT 50 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE INCREASING TO 60 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 3 TO 9 HOURS. EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 30 MILES OF CENTRE, AND OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 120 MILES OF CENTRE.

ORGANISATION STEADILY INCREASING. CENTRE NOW UNDER DEEP AND COOLING CONVECTION. SPIRAL BANDS CONSOLIDATING AND WRAPPING TIGHTLY AROUND LLCC. CYCLONE LIES IN A DIFFLUENT REGION AND MINIMAL SHEAR. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS FAVOURABLE CONDITIONS FOR INTENSIFICATIONS. EAST-SOUTHEAST STEERING INFLUENCED BY MID-LEVELS. DVORAK BASED ON 0.65 WRAP ON LOG10 SPIRAL IN CMG, YIELDING A DT3.5. PAT=MET=3.5, THUS T3.5/3.5/D1.5/24HRS. GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON FURTHER INTENSIFICATION ON EAST-SOUTHEAST THEN SOUTHEAST TRACK.

ON THIS TRACK THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BRING DESTRUCTIVE STORM FORCE WINDS OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL VANUATU IN THE NEXT 18 HOURS. MOMENTARY GUSTS WILL BE A LOT HIGHER AND FREQUENT. FREQUENT HEAVY RAIN AND SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. FLOODING INCLUDING SEA FLOODING OF LOW-LYING COASTAL AREAS EXPECTED. HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS EXPECTED OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL VANUATU WATERS WITH DAMAGING HEAVY SWELLS.

FORECAST:
12HRS VALID AT 171000 UTC NEAR 15.3S 169.3E MOV E 11KT WITH 60KT CLOSE TO CENTRE. 24HRS VALID AT 172200 UTC NEAR 16.4S 170.5E MOV SE 8KT WITH 65KT CLOSE TO CENTRE.

OUTLOOK:
36HRS VALID AT 181000 UTC NEAR 17.8S 171.6E MOV SE 9KT WITH 80KT CLOSE TO CENTRE.
48HRS VALID AT 182200 UTC NEAR 19.1S 172.1E MOV SSE 7KT WITH 90KT CLOSE TO CENTRE.

THE NEXT SPECIAL ADVISORY FOR VANUATU ON TC FUNA WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 170230 UTC.

VANUATU MET PLEASE ACKNOWLEDGE RECEIPT OF THIS BULLETIN.

___________________________________________________________
APCEDI will continue to monitor the progress of this system.

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator
http://www.afap.org/apcedi/

To donate to AFAP's Disaster Preparedness, Relief and Rehabilitation Programs in Asia and the Pacific, go to http://www.afap.org and click on the "Donate On-Line" icon in the top right-hand corner.

To sign up for AFAP's free APCEDI email service, please go to http://www.afap.org/apcedi/ and register your email address.

APCEDI Alert SP/VN 10F Funa #1-2008: Cyclone Funa forms near Northern Vanuatu.

The RSMC-Nadi Tropical Cyclone Centre, the Joint Typhoon Warning Centre have begun to issue guidance on Tropical Cyclone Funa that has formed this evening near Northern Vanuatu.

The centre of Cyclone Funa is located near about 170 kilometres west of Cape Nahoi on the Northwest tip of Espiritu Santo at 08 PM this evening Fiji time.

Funa is moving to the east-northeast at 18.5 km/hr, and is expected to turn more east and southeast tomorrow.

The current forecast map shows Funa moving over or just to the north of Cape Nahoi on Espiritu Santo and then across the Banks Islands before passing out into the Pacific Ocean between Vanuatu and Fiji.Cyclone Funa is at minimal Tropical Storm strength on the Saffir Simpson Scale. This equates to Category 1 on the Australia Scale. It will gradually increase in strength as it moves over Northern Vanuatu but will likely stay at Tropical Storm strength which is good news for Vanuatu as this should result in minimal damage although some moderate localised damage is possible in exposed areas.

Cyclone Alerts and Gale Warnings have been issued for Northern Vanuatu and Watches for Central Vanuatu. On Funa's current track the islands of most concern include Espiritu Santo, the Banks and Torres Islands, Maewo and Ambae. All residents in these islands should monitor the storm carefully and follow all government advice to rush cyclone preparations to completion. All islands north of Efate should be on alert and monitor the situation. Interests in Temotu Province of the Solomons (including the Santa Cruz Group, Anuta and Tikopia) should also keep a close watch on the movement of this storm. Rough seas will be experienced throughout the area.


ALERTS AND WARNINGS

VANUATU

A GALE WARNING AND CYCLONE ALERT IS IN FORCE FOR ESPIRITU SANTO, BANKS AND TORRES ISLANDS, MAEWO AND AMBAE.

A HIGH WIND WARNING AND CYCLONE WATCH IS IN FORCE FOR THE REMAINDER OF VANUATU NORTH OF EFATE.

SOLOMON ISLANDS

HIGH WIND WARNING AND MARINE ALERT FOR ROUGH SEAS IS IN EFFECT FOR TEMOTU PROVINCE INCLUDING ALL ISLANDS IN THE SANTA CRUZ GROUP AND ANUTA AND TIKOPIA.

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From the RSMC-Nadi Tropical Cyclone Centre


Special Advisory - Vanuatu

Special Advisory Number TWO for Vanuatu on TC FUNA ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Jan 16/0836 UTC 2008 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE 10F FUNA CENTRE [990HPA] CAT 1 NEAR 14.4S 164.8E AT 160600 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON MTSAT EIR IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. CYCLONE INTENSIFYING AND MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST AT 10 KNOTS BUT EXPECTED TO TURN EAST THEN SOUTHEAST IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS ESTIMATED AT 35 TO 40 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE INCREASING TO 45 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 12
TO 18 HOURS. EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 120 MILES OF CENTRE.

ORGANISATION PAST 12 HOURS IMPROVED SIGNIFICANTLY WITH CONVECTION ABOUT CENTRE COOLING MARKEDLY AS WELL. SPIRAL BANDS WRAPPING TIGHTLY AROUND LLCC. OUTFLOW GOOD TO NORTH AND DEVELOPING TO EAST AND SOUTH. SHEAR [CIMSS] DECREASING OVER SYSTEM AND ALONG FORECAST TRACK. CYCLONE LIES IN A DIFFLUENT REGION AND STEERED EASTWARDS BY DEEP LAYER MEAN MONSOON WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW. DVORAK BASED ON 0.6 WRAP ON LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDING A DT3.0. PAT=3.0, MET=2.5, THUS T3.0/3.0/D1.5/24HRS. GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON FURTHER INTENSIFICATION AND EAST TO SOUTHEAST MOVEMENT.

ON THIS TRACK THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BRING DAMAGING GALE FORCE WINDS OR STRONGER OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL VANUATU IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FREQUENT HEAVY RAIN AND SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. FLOODING INCLUDING SEA FLOODING OF LOW-LYING COASTAL AREAS EXCPECTED. HIGH SEAS EXPECTED OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL VANUATU WATERS WITH DAMAGING
HEAVY SWELLS.

FORECAST:
12HRS VALID AT 161800 UTC NEAR 14.2S 167.0E MOV E 11KT WITH 45KT CLOSE TO CENTRE. 24HRS VALID AT 170600 UTC NEAR 14.8S 169.3E MOV ESE 13KT WITH 45KT CLOSE TO CENTRE.

OUTLOOK:
36HRS VALID AT 171800 UTC NEAR 15.8S 171.2E MOV ESE 12KT WITH 55KT CLOSE TO CENTRE.
48HRS VALID AT 180600 UTC NEAR 17.2S 172.4E MOV SE 10KT WITH 60KT CLOSE TO CENTRE.

THE NEXT SPECIAL ADVISORY FOR VANUATU ON TC FUNA WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 161430 UTC.

VANUATU MET PLEASE ACKNOWLEDGE RECEIPT OF THIS BULLETIN.

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APCEDI will continue to monitor the progress of this system.

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator
http://www.afap.org/apcedi/

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