APCEDI ALERT Sri Lanka-BOBW, Cyclone Baaz (05B), #6: Cyclone Baaz approaches Tamil Nadu-Andhra Pradesh Border Region, Sri Lanka Spared

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) and the Sri Lanka and India Departments of Meteorology are continuing to issue guidance on Cyclone Baaz in the Western Bay of Bengal.

The JTWC has issued its sixth Cyclone Warning for this system. The centre of circulation of Cyclone Baaz is approximately 400 km east of Chennai, and has been tracking very slightly west-northwestward at 2 kt towards the Tamil Nadu-Andhra Pradesh Border region of Southeast India. Cyclone Baaz has slightly weakened in the last 24 hours, but forecasts are calling for continued slow strengthening.

The system, which continues at tropical storm strength, is now bearing down on the Tamil Nadu-Andhra Pradesh Border region of Southeast India with the initial outer rain bands just off the coast. This is now a very serious situation with the potential for much damage in and around the area of landfall which is increasingly likely to be between Northern Tamil Nadu (Chennai) and South-Central Andhra Pradesh (Machilipatnam). The Andhra Pradesh State Government has placed Nellore, Prakasam, Chittoor, Kadapa and Guntur Disticts on high alert and some evacuations are now in progress. All interests, including overseas aid workers and operations in this area of Southeast India need to closely watch the progress of this cyclone as it approaches the Indian coast. As the cyclone approaches the coast this is becoming an increasingly dangerous situation for an area that is already waterlogged from last week's tropical depression.

The Sri Lanka Government is now discontinuing its advice on the storm as it pulls away from the island. It seems that Sri Lanka has fortunately dodged the bullet in this case.

FROM JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER
http://www.npmoc.navy.mil/jtwc.html

Tropical cyclone (tc) 05b (baaz), located approximately 230 nm east of Madras, India, has tracked west-northwestward at 02 knots over the past 06 hours. The cyclone has slowed over the past 12 hours. Tc 05b has slightly weakened over the past 06 hours with deep convection diminishing. However, a 300043z Quikscat pass depicts a well organized circulation. Tc 05b will continue to track toward the west-northwest and approach the East Coast of India within 48 hours. Storm intensification will be limited by vertical wind shear. The storm will begin to weaken after 24 hours as a result of increasing wind shear and proximity to land. Maximum significant wave height at 300600z is 18 feet. Next warnings at 302100z and 010900z.//

SRI LANKA DEPARTMENT OF METEOROLOGY
http://www.meteo.slt.lk/index.html

29 November 2005
Cyclonic storm Baaz is moving away from our parts and practically it will no longer be effective on our weather. The fishing and naval community is informed Northern deep seas off Jaffna will be very rough windy and showery.

INDIAN DEPARTMENT OF METEOROLOGY
http://www.imd.gov.in/

CYCLONE STATEMENT

No. BOB/11/2005/19 Dated 30th November, 2005

Subject: Cyclonic Warning for extreme North Tamil Nadu & South Andhra Pradesh Coasts

The cyclonic storm "BAAZ", over southwest Bay of Bengal remained practically stationary and lay centered at 1430 IST of 30th November 2005 near Lat. 12.5o N and Long. 84.0o E about 400 km east - southeast of Chennai. The system is likely to intensify further and move in a west-northwesterly direction and cross the extreme north Tamil Nadu - south Andhra coast between Chennai and Machilipatnam by the night of 1st December 2005.

Under its influence fairly widespread rainfall with isolated heavy falls are likely over extreme north coastal Tamil Nadu and coastal Andhra Pradesh during next 48 hours. Gales speed reaching 80-90 kmph also likely to commence along and off extreme north Tamil Nadu - Andhra coast from tonight.

State of sea will be high to very high off extreme north Tamil Nadu - south Andhra Pradesh coast. Fishermen along the above coasts are advised not to venture into the sea.


WARNING
Isolated to scattered heavy to very heavy rainfall likely over north coastal Tamil Nadu & Pondicherry and Coastal Andhra Pradesh from tonight for next 2-3 days.

Strong winds with speed reaching 80-90 kmph likely along & off north Tamil Nadu and south Andhra Pradesh coasts from tomorrow. State of sea will be very rough to high. Fishermen are advised not to venture into the sea along the above coasts.

APCEDI will continue to monitor the progress of this serious cyclone. While APCEDI does not normally monitor cyclones in the Bay of Bengal, given AFAP's tsunami relief effort and that of many agencies in the region, APCEDI will continue to bring reports from this region, as warranted, for the next year or longer if needed.

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator
http://www.afap.org/apcedi/

To donate to AFAP's Disaster Preparedness, Relief and Rehabilitation Programs in Asia and the Pacific, go to http://www.afap.org and click on the "Donate On-Line" icon in the top righthand corner.

APCEDI ALERT Sri Lanka-BOBW, Cyclone Baaz (05B), #5: Cyclone Baaz due to make landfall near Tamil Nadu-Andhra Pradesh Border Region Tomorrow

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) and the Sri Lanka and India Departments of Meteorology are continuing to issue guidance on Cyclone Baaz in the Western Bay of Bengal.

The JTWC has issued its fourth Cyclone Warning for this system. The centre of circulation of Cyclone Baaz is approximately 450 km east-southeast of Chennai or 450 km northeast of Jaffna, Sri Lanka, had been tracking west-northwestward at 9 kt towards the Tamil Nadu-Andhra Pradesh Border region of Southeast India, although it seems to have again slowed and has remained stationary in the last few hours. Cyclone Baaz has not strengthened overnight, but forecasts are calling for continued slow strengthening.

The system, which continues at tropical storm strength, is now bearing down on Southeast India. The area of convection associated with Cyclone Baaz decreased overnight and moved toward the north and northwest. This is much better news for Sri Lanka, which now looks like it will escape the major effects of the cyclone, although the seas will continue to be very rough off the northern coast.

This is now a very serious situation with the potential for much damage in and around the area of landfall which is increasingly likely to be in Northern Tamil Nadu and Southern and Central Andhra Pradesh. The Andhra Pradesh State Government has in the last few hours placed Nellore, Prakasam, Chittoor, Kadapa and Guntur Disticts on high alert . All interests, including overseas aid workers and operations in this area of Southeast India need to closely watch the progress of this cyclone as it approaches the Indian coast. As the cyclone approaches the coast this is becoming an increasingly dangerous situation for Southeastern India, which is already waterlogged from last week's tropical depression.

While the potential for major impact in Sri Lanka is currently lessening, Government and aid workers (including all AFAP, NSRC, RRI and other affiliated aid workers) along the Sri Lankan coast and in flood prone areas, should still continue to carefully monitor this system and be prepared to assist communities in which they are working should the situation warrant and the Government of Sri Lanka issue any flood or storm warnings.

FROM JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER
http://www.npmoc.navy.mil/jtwc.html

To be updated shortly.

SRI LANKA DEPARTMENT OF METEOROLOGY
http://www.meteo.slt.lk/index.html

29 November 2005
The cyclonic storm in the Bay of Bengal has been named as 'Baaz'. It was about 450km Northeast of Jaffna at 0230hrs today (30th). Baaz is moving Northwestward. Fishing and naval community is informed Northern deep seas off Jaffna will be very rough windy and showery.

INDIAN DEPARTMENT OF METEOROLOGY
http://www.imd.gov.in/

CYCLONE STATEMENT

No. BOB/11/2005/15 Dated 30th November, 2005

Subject: Cyclonic Warning for extreme North Tamil Nadu & South Andhra Pradesh Coasts

The cyclonic storm "BAAZ", over southwest Bay of Bengal remained practically stationary and lay centered at 0230 IST of 30th November 2005 near Lat. 12.0o N and Long. 84.0o E about 450 km east - southeast of Chennai. The system is likely to intensify further and move in a west-northwesterly direction and cross the extreme north Tamil Nadu - south Andhra coast between Chennai and Machilipatnam by the morning of 1st December 2005.

Under its influence fairly widespread rainfall with isolated heavy falls are likely along north Tamilnadu - south Andhra Pradesh coast during next 48 hours. Gales speed reaching 80-90 kmph also likely to commence along and off the above coasts from the night of Wednesday, the 30th November 2005.

State of sea will be very rough to high off extreme north Tamil Nadu - south Andhra Pradesh coast. Fishermen along the above coasts are advised not to venture into the sea.

WARNING
Isolated to scattered heavy to very heavy rainfall likely over coastal Tamil Nadu & Pondicherry and Coastal Andhra Pradesh from tomorrow morning for next 2-3 days. Isolated heavy rainfall also occur over interior Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh from 1st.
Strong winds with speed reaching 60-70 kmph likely along & off north Tamil Nadu and south Andhra Pradesh coasts from tomorrow. Sate of sea will be very rough. Fishermen are advised not to venture into the sea along the above coasts.

APCEDI will continue to monitor the progress of this serious cyclone. While APCEDI does not normally monitor cyclones in the Bay of Bengal, given AFAP's tsunami relief effort and that of many agencies in the region, APCEDI will continue to bring reports from this region, as warranted, for the next year or longer if needed.

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator
http://www.afap.org/apcedi/

To donate to AFAP's Disaster Preparedness, Relief and Rehabilitation Programs in Asia and the Pacific, go to http://www.afap.org and click on the "Donate On-Line" icon in the top righthand corner.

APCEDI ALERT Sri Lanka-BOBW, Cyclone Baaz (05B), #4: Cyclone Baaz Strengthens as it begins to impact Sri Lanka and Southeast India

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) and the Sri Lanka and India Departments of Meteorology are continuing to issue guidance on Cyclone Baaz in the Western Bay of Bengal.

The JTWC has issued its fourth Cyclone Warning for this system. The centre of circulation of Cyclone Baaz is approximately 650 km east-southeast of Chennai or 500 km northeast of Jaffna, Sri Lanka, had been tracking west-northwestward at 9 kt towards Northern Sri Lanka and the Tamil Nadu-Andhra Pradesh Border region of South east India. Cyclone Baaz continues to slowly strengthen.

The system, which continues at tropical storm strength, will start to bear down on Northern Sri Lanka and Southeast India in the next 10-20 hours. Any shift in the cyclone's track further to the south would bring Sri Lanka increasingly into the main cone of danger for Cyclone Baaz. However, if Cyclone Baaz stays on its current northwest to west-northwest track, the situation will be less severe for Sri Lanka and more severe for the Indian state of Andhra Pradesh.

This is now a very serious situation with the potential for much damage in and around the area of landfall. All interests, including overseas aid workers and operations in Sri Lanka and Southeast India need to closely watch the progress of this cyclone as it approaches the Indian coast. As the cyclone strengthens this is becoming an increasingly dangerous situation for Northern Sri Lanka and Southeastern India, which is already waterlogged from last week's tropical depression.

All Government and aid workers (including all AFAP, NSRC, RRI and other affiliated aid workers) along the Sri Lankan coast and in flood prone areas, should continue to carefully monitor this system and be prepared to assist communities in which they are working should the situation warrant and the Government of Sri Lanka issue any flood or storm warnings.

FROM JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER
http://www.npmoc.navy.mil/jtwc.html

Tropical cyclone (tc) 05b, located approximately 330 nm east-southeast of Madras, India, has tracked west-northwestward at 09 knots over the past 06 hours. The cyclone continues to track along the southern periphery of a mid-level steering ridge centered over the Northern Bay of Bengal. Late in the forecast period tc 05b will turn more poleward and moderately intensify as it tracks along the southwestern quadrant of the ridge. The storm will intensify at a less than climatological rate as moderate vertical wind shear will inhibit intensification. Maximum significant wave height at 290600z is 15 feet. Next warnings at 292100z and 300900z.//

SRI LANKA DEPARTMENT OF METEOROLOGY
http://www.meteo.slt.lk/index.html

29 November 2005
The cyclonic storm in the Bay of Bengal has been named 'Baaz'. It was about 500km Northeast of Jaffna at 0900hrs today (29th). Baaz is moving Northwestward. It is likely to intensify further into a severe cyclonic storm. There will be intermittent showers or thundershowers with strong winds in the Northern, Northwestern and North Central provinces. Western, Sabaragamuwa and Central provinces and Galle and Matara districts will also feel these weather conditions after midnight today (29th). Fishing and naval community is strongly advised to refrain from their activities in the Northern, Eastern and Northwestern seas as the seas are expected to be very rough, windy and showery.

INDIAN DEPARTMENT OF METEOROLOGY
http://www.imd.gov.in/

CYCLONE STATEMENT

The cyclonic storm "BAAZ", over southeast Bay of Bengal moved northwestwards and lay centered at 1130 IST of 29th November 2005 near Lat. 11.00 N and Long. 86.00 E about 700 km east -southeast of Chennai. The system is likely to intensify further and move in a west-northwesterly direction towards north Tamil Nadu - south Andhra coast during next 48 hours. Under its influence fairly widespread rainfall with isolated heavy falls are likely to commence along north Tamilnadu - south Andhra Pradesh coast from tomorrow morning. Strong winds speed reaching 50-60 kmph also likely to commence along and off the above coasts during the same period. State of sea will become rough to very rough from that time onwards. Fishermen along the above coasts are advised not to venture into the sea.

WARNING
Isolated to scattered heavy to very heavy rainfall likely over coastal Tamil Nadu & Pondicherry and Coastal Andhra Pradesh from tomorrow morning for next 2-3 days. Isolated heavy rainfall also occur over interior Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh from 1st.
Strong winds with speed reaching 60-70 kmph likely along & off north Tamil Nadu and south Andhra Pradesh coasts from tomorrow. Sate of sea will be very rough. Fishermen are advised not to venture into the sea along the above coasts.

APCEDI will continue to monitor the progress of this serious cyclone. While APCEDI does not normally monitor cyclones in the Bay of Bengal, given AFAP's tsunami relief effort and that of many agencies in the region, APCEDI will continue to bring reports from this region, as warranted, for the next year or longer if needed.

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator
http://www.afap.org/apcedi/

To donate to AFAP's Disaster Preparedness, Relief and Rehabilitation Programs in Asia and the Pacific, go to http://www.afap.org and click on the "Donate On-Line" icon in the top righthand corner.

APCEDI ALERT Sri Lanka-BOBW, Cyclone Baaz (05B), #3: Tropical Cyclone Strengthens as it tracks slowly west to Sri Lanka and Southeast India

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) and the Sri Lanka and India Departments of Meteorology are continuing to issue guidance on Cyclone 05B in the Bay of Bengal. The Cyclone has been named Baaz (named supplied by Oman) following the recently developed system for naming Northern Indian Ocean Cyclones.

The JTWC has issued its third Cyclone Warning for this system. The centre of circulation is now some 200 km west-southwest of Port Blair in the South Andamans. The weather in the Andaman and Nicobar islands is improving as the Cyclone has been moving away.

Cyclone Baaz, which is approximately 900 km east-southeast of Chennai or 600 km northeast of Trincomalee, Sri Lanka, had been tracking westward at 10 kt towards Northern Sri Lanka and the Tamil Nadu-Andhra Pradesh Border region of South east India. However, more recent satellite information, indicates Baaz has slowed and may be stationary for the moment. Baaz continues to slowly strengthen.

The system, which continues at tropical storm strength, will start to bear down on Northern Sri Lanka and Southeast India in 24-36 hours. Any shift in the cyclone's track further to the south would bring Sri Lanka increasingly into the main cone of danger for Cyclone Baaz.

All interests, including overseas aid workers and operations in Sri Lanka and Southeast India need to closely watch the progress of this cyclone as it moves westward. As the cyclone strengthens this is becoming an increasingly dangerous situation for Sri Lanka and Southeastern India, which is already waterlogged from last week's tropical depression.

All Government and aid workers (including all AFAP, NSRC, RRI and other affiliated aid workers) along the Sri Lankan coast and in flood prone areas, should continue to carefully monitor this system and be prepared to assist communities in which they are working should the situation warrant and the Government of Sri Lanka issue any flood or storm warnings.

FROM JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER
http://www.npmoc.navy.mil/jtwc.html

Tropical cyclone (tc) 05b, located approximately 425 nm east-southeast of Madras, India, has tracked westward at 10 knots over the past 06 hours. The cyclone is on the southern periphery of a narrow, mid-level steering ridge centered over the Northern Bay of Bengal. By the end of the forecast period, tc 05b will turn more poleward and the rate of translation will decrease as it enters the southwestern quadrant of the ridge. The storm will intensify at a less than climatological rate as moderate vertical wind shear will displace the deep convection to the west of the low level circulation center. Maximum significant wave height at 281800z is 13 feet. Next warnings at 290900z and 292100z.//

SRI LANKA DEPARTMENT OF METEOROLOGY
http://www.meteo.slt.lk/index.html

29 November 2005
A depression in the Bay of Bengal has intensified into a cyclonic storm and about 6000 km to the east of Trincomalee at 29th, 0300 hrs in the morning. It is moving in a West-Northwest direction. Under its influence, especially , the deep sea areas seas off the coast extending from Jaffna to Pottuvil via Trincomalee will experience very rough seas, strong winds and rain or thundershowers.

Most parts of the island will be cloudy. There will be showers or thundershowers at several places in the Northern, Eastern, North Central provinces and in the Southwest quarter with isolated fairly heavy falls. Showers or thundershowers will develop over the rest of the island particularly during the afternoon and evening.

INDIAN DEPARTMENT OF METEOROLOGY
http://www.imd.gov.in/

CYCLONE STATEMENT

The cyclonic storm "BAAZ", over southeast Bay of Bengal remained practically stationary and lay centered at 0230 IST of 29th November 2005 near Lat. 10.50 N and Long. 88.00 E about 900 km east -southeast of Chennai. The system is likely to intensify further and move in a west-northwesterly direction towards north Tamilnadu- south Andhra coast during next 48 hours. Under its influence fairly widespread rainfall with isolated heavy falls are likely to commence along north Tamilnadu - south Andhra Pradesh coast from 30th morning onwards. Strong winds speed reaching 50-60 kmph also likely to commence from 30th morning along and off the above coast. State of sea will become rough to very rough from that time onwards. Fishermen along the above coasts are advised not to venture into the sea.

WARNING
Isolated heavy rainfall likely over Andaman & Nicobar Islands during next 24 hrs.
Isolated to scattered heavy to very heavy rainfall over Tamil Nadu & Pondicherry and south Coastal Andhra Pradesh from November 30th for next 2-3 days.

APCEDI will continue to monitor the progress of this cyclone. While APCEDI does not normally monitor cyclones in the Bay of Bengal, given AFAP's tsunami relief effort and that of many agencies in the region, APCEDI will continue to bring reports from this region, as warranted, for the next year or longer if needed.

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator
http://www.afap.org/apcedi/

To donate to AFAP's Disaster Preparedness, Relief and Rehabilitation Programs in Asia and the Pacific, go to http://www.afap.org and click on the "Donate On-Line" icon in the top righthand corner.

APCEDI ALERT Sri Lanka-BOBW Tropical Cyclone 05B, #2: Tropical Cyclone Strengthens as it tracks west to Sri Lanka and Southeast India

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) and the Sri Lanka and India Departments of Meteorology are continuing to issue guidance on Cyclone 05B in the Bay of Bengal. The JTWC has issued its second Cyclone Warning for this system. The centre of circulation is now some 100 km west-southwest of Port Blair in the South Andamans and is causing heavy rains, winds, storms and localised flooding over the Andaman and Nicobar Islands.

The system, which is approximately 1000 km east-southeast of Chennai or 850 km east of Trincomalee, Sri Lanka, has been tracking west-southwest at 9 kt towards Northern Sri Lanka and the Tamil Nadu-Andhra Predesh Border region of South east India.

The system, which is currently at tropical storm strength, will start to bear down on Northern Sri Lanka and Southeast India in 24-36 hours. Any shift in the cyclone's track further to the south would bring Sri Lanka increasingly into the main cone of danger for this cyclone. The situation in the Andamans and Nicobars should improve over the next 24 hours as the cyclone moves away.

All interests, including overseas aid workers and operations in the Andaman and Nicobar Islands, Sri Lanka and Southeast India need to closely watch the progress of this cyclone as it moves westward. As the cyclone strengthens this is becoming an increasingly dangerous situation for Sri Lanka and Southeastern India, which is already waterlogged from last week's tropical depression.

All Government and aid workers (including all AFAP, NSRC, RRI and other affiliated aid workers) along the Sri Lankan coast and in flood prone areas, should continue to carefully monitor this system and be prepared to assist communities in which they are working should the situation warrant and the Government of Sri Lanka issue any flood or storm warnings.

FROM JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER
http://www.npmoc.navy.mil/jtwc.html

280900z position near 10.3n 88.5e. Tropical cyclone (tc) 05b, located approximately 540 nm east-southeast of Madras, India, has tracked west-southwest at 9 knots over the past 06 hours. The system will continue to track to the west under the influence of a steering ridge to the north. Vertical wind shear has increased over the last 12 hours but gradual strengthening is still expected. Maximum significant wave height at 280600z is 10 feet. Next warnings at 282100z and 290900z.//

SRI LANKA DEPARTMENT OF METEOROLOGY
http://www.meteo.slt.lk/index.html

28 November 2005
A depression has formed in the South-central Bay of Bengal and was about 850 km to the east of Trincomalee at 28th, 12 noon. It is ikely to deepen into a cyclonic storm. It is moving in a West-Northwest direction. Under its influence, seas will be rough off the coast from Jaffna to Pottuvil via Trincomalee.

INDIAN DEPARTMENT OF METEOROLOGY
http://www.imd.gov.in/

The well marked low pressure area over south Andaman Sea and adjoining southeast Bay of Bengal has concentrated into a depression and lies centred today morning at 0830 hrs. IST over southeast Bay of Bengal with its center close to lat. 10.5ºN/long. 90.5ºE about 1150 km east-southeast of Chennai. The system is likely to intensify further and move in a westnorthwesterly direction. Under its influence rainfall is likely to occur at many places with isolated heavy rainfall over Andaman & Nicobar Islands during next 24 hrs. Strong winds with speed reaching 45-55Kmph also likely along and off Bay Islands during the same period. Scattered rainfall activity is likely to commence over Coastal Tamil Nadu & Pondicherry and south Coastal Andhra Pradesh from tomorrow evening. Subsequently, the rainfall activity over south peninsula is likely to increase with heavy to very heavy falls at a few places.

WARNING
Isolated heavy rainfall likely over Andaman & Nicobar Islands during next 24 hrs.
Isolated to scattered heavy to very heavy rainfall over Tamil Nadu & Pondicherry and south Coastal Andhra Pradesh from November 30th for next 2-3 days.

APCEDI will continue to monitor the progress of this cyclone. While APCEDI does not normally monitor cyclones in the Bay of Bengal, given AFAP's tsunami relief effort and that of many agencies in the region, APCEDI will continue to bring reports from this region, as warranted, for the next year or longer if needed.

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator
http://www.afap.org/apcedi/

To donate to AFAP's Disaster Preparedness, Relief and Rehabilitation Programs in Asia and the Pacific, go to http://www.afap.org and click on the "Donate On-Line" icon in the top righthand corner.

APCEDI ALERT Sri Lanka-BOBW Tropical Cyclone 05B, #1: Tropical Cyclone Develops in Andaman Islands, Tracking NW to Sri Lanka and Southeast India

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) and the Sri Lanka and India Departments of Meteorology are issuing guidance on a newly formed cyclone in the Bay of Bengal. The JTWC has issued its first Cyclone Warning for the system named 05B. The centre of circulation is near Port Blair in the South Andamans and is causing heavy rains, winds and storms and localised flooding over the Andaman and Nicobar Islands. The system, which is currently at tropical storm strength, is now slowly drifting northwest towards the Southeast Coast of India towards the Chennai area. On this track the cyclone would pass north of Sri Lanka, but the island could still receive heavy rain over the next few days. Any shift in the cyclone's track to the south would bring Sri Lanka increasingly into the main cone of danger from this cyclone.

All interests, including overseas aid workers and operations in the Andaman and Nicobar Islands, Sri Lanka and Southeast India need to closely watch the progress of this cyclone as it moves northwest. All Government and aid workers (including all AFAP, NSRC, RRI and other affiliated aid workers) along the Sri Lankan coast and in flood prone areas, should continue to carefully monitor this system and be prepared to assist communities in which they are working should the situation warrant and the Government of Sri Lanka issue any flood or storm warnings.

FROM JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER
http://www.npmoc.navy.mil/jtwc.html

TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05B, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 640 NM EAST OF MADRAS, INDIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES CONTINUED ORGANIZATION OF DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A LOW TO MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE. THE SYSTEM WILL INTENSIFY AT A NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE BEFORE INTERACTING WITH LAND AND ENCOUNTERING INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 271151ZNOV2005 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTIO21 PGTW 271200). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 271800Z IS 8 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 280900Z AND 282100Z.//.


SRI LANKA DEPARTMENT OF METEOROLOGY
http://www.meteo.slt.lk/wxfc.html

22 November 2005 for 22-23 November 2005
To be updated shortly.

INDIAN DEPARTMENT OF METEOROLOGY
http://www.imd.gov.in/

Morning’s low pressure area over south Andaman Sea and adjoining southeast Bay of Bengal is now well marked. Associated upper air cyclonic circulation extends upto 3.1 km a.s.l. Under its influence rainfall is likely to occur at most places with isolated heavy to very heavy rainfall over Andaman & Nicobar Islands during next 2-3 days.

WARNING
Isolated heavy to very heavy rainfall likely over Andaman & Nicobar Islands.

APCEDI will continue to monitor the progress of this cyclone. While APCEDI does not normally monitor cyclones in the Bay of Bengal, given AFAP's tsunami relief effort and that of many agencies in the region, APCEDI will continue to bring reports from this region, as warranted, for the next year or longer if needed.

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator
http://www.afap.org/apcedi/

To donate to AFAP's Disaster Preparedness, Relief and Rehabilitation Programs in Asia and the Pacific, go to http://www.afap.org and click on the "Donate On-Line" icon in the top righthand corner.

APCEDI ALERT Sri Lanka-BOBW Tropical Depression #5, 2006: Tropical Depression Weakens over Tamil Nadu after causing Widespread Flooding in Sri Lanka

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) and the India Department of Meteorology continue to issue guidance on the former tropical depression that has now weakened to a low pressure system over Tamil Nadu. The system is causing isolated heavy rains in southern India, but the situation in Sri Lanka is improving as the system moves away.

The depression brought widespread flooding, some locally moderate to severe, to Sri Lanka with worst hit areas in the north around Kilinochchi and in the west around Colombo. Sri Lanka news media are reporting 6 dead in the capital region and 40,000-50,000 people displaced or otherwise severely affected across the nation. 4,000 tsunami refugees were evacuated from Mullaittivu and Vadamarachi East Districts near Kilinochchi, with an additional 20,000 families affected in the area. News stories, continual updates and additional details can be found at the The Sri Lankan Academic News Service

The remaining areas of convection of this weakening system lie scattered over the southern tip of India, and this convection will continue to bring intermittent heavy rains to Kerala and Tamil Nadu States. The India Meteorological Department has continues a Heavy Rain Advisory over Tamil Nadu and the Pondicherry Enclaves as well as Kerala and Lakshadweep.

Even though the system is weakening, interests in Southern India should continue to monitor the progress of this tropical system for any restrengthening or localised flooding threats. Aid workers (including all AFAP, NSRC, RRI and other affiliated aid workers) in flood affected areas of Sri Lanka, should continue to carefully monitor the weather as localised heavy rain is still possible in isolated areas, and this could result in additional localised flooding.

FROM JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER
http://www.npmoc.navy.mil/jtwc.html

1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 8.3N 78.6E, APPROXIMATELY 115 NM NORTHWEST OF COLOMBO, SRI LANKA HAS MOVED OVER LAND AND IS NO LONGER CONSIDERED SUSPECT FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24HOURS.


SRI LANKA DEPARTMENT OF METEOROLOGY
http://www.meteo.slt.lk/wxfc.html

Guidance on the system has been discontinued.


INDIAN DEPARTMENT OF METEOROLOGY
http://www.imd.gov.in/

Yesterday’s depression over southwest Bay of Bengal with its center near lat 9.5º N /long. 79.5º E close to Pamban weakened into a well marked low pressure area over the same region at 1730 hours IST yesterday. It has further weakened into a low pressure area and now lies over south Tamil Nadu and neighbourhood. The system is likely to move in a westerly direction. Under its influence fairly widespread rains with isolated heavy falls are likely over Tamil Nadu, Pondicherry, Kerala and Lakshadweep during next 48 hours.

APCEDI will continue to monitor the progress of this tropical system. While APCEDI does not normally monitor cyclones in the Bay of Bengal, given AFAP's tsunami relief effort and that of many agencies in the region, APCEDI will continue to bring reports from this region, as warranted, for the next year or longer if needed.

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator
http://www.afap.org/apcedi/

To donate to AFAP's Disaster Preparedness, Relief and Rehabilitation Programs in Asia and the Pacific, go to http://www.afap.org and click on the "Donate On-Line" icon in the top righthand corner.

APCEDI ALERT Sri Lanka-BOBW Tropical Depression #4, 2006: Tropical Depression Deepens, Brings Heavy Rain and Flooding to Sri Lanka and Southeast India

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) and the Sri Lanka and India Departments of Meteorology continue to issue guidance on the tropical depression off the Northwestern Coast of Sri Lanka. The JTWC has again upgraded the chance for development of a significant tropical cyclone in the area from poor to fair. The system is causing heavy rains, winds and storms and localised flooding over a wide area. The system is now slowly drifting westward towards the Tamil Nadu coast.

Flooding, some locally moderate to severe in Sri Lanka, is being reported from Northern and Western provinces. 4000 tsunami refugees have been evacuated from Mullaittivu and Vadamarachi East Districts near Kilinochchi, with an additional 20,000 families under threat in the area. Reports of flooding have also come in from many areas around Colombo including many places in the capital. More reports of flooding are expected as rains continue over many areas particularly in the Western and Central Provinces. News stories, continual updates and additional details can be found at the The Sri Lankan Academic News Service

The main areas of convection of this deepening depression lie over western Sri Lanka and the entire southern tip of India, and this convection continues to bring i heavy rain along the North, Northwestern and Central areas of Sri Lanka, and these rains are likely to continue over the next 24 hours. The India Meteorological Department has issued a Heavy Rain Warning as shower activity is becoming increasingly widespread and intense over Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh States and the Pondicherry Enclaves in Southeast India.

All interests in Sri Lanka and Southern India should continue to monitor the progress of this tropical system. All Government and aid workers (including all AFAP, NSRC, RRI and other affiliated aid workers) along the Northern Sri Lankan coast and in flood prone areas, should continue to carefully monitor this system and be prepared to assist communities in which they are working should the situation warrant and the Government of Sri Lanka issue any flood or storm warnings.

FROM JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER
http://www.npmoc.navy.mil/jtwc.html

1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.5N 81.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.3N 78.9E , APPROXIMATELY 100 NM NORTHWEST OF COLOMBO, SRI LANKA. RECENT ANIMATED MULTI-SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS A WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH INCREASING CONVECTION NEAR THE LLCC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE LLCC IS IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITH FAVORABLE POLEWARD DIVERGENCE ALOFT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO FAIR.


SRI LANKA DEPARTMENT OF METEOROLOGY
http://www.meteo.slt.lk/wxfc.html

22 November 2005 for 22-23 November 2005
The low pressure area has now crossed the island in the early morning and now persists over the Polk Strait. Under its influence cloudy conditions will prevail over most parts of the island. Intermittent showers and thundershowers will continue with strong winds at times in most places in the Western, Sabaragamuwa, Northern, North Central, Northwestern and Central Provinces with fairly heavy falls in some places. Showers are also expected at several places elsewhere elsewhere.

INDIAN DEPARTMENT OF METEOROLOGY
http://www.imd.gov.in/

Yesterday’s depression over southwest Bay of Bengal moved west-wards and lay centered today morning at 0830 hrs. IST with its center close to lat 9.0º N /long. 80.0º E about 100 km east of Pamban. The system is likely to move in a westerly direction and cross south Tamil Nadu coast between Tuticorin and Tondy by today afternoon. Under its influence, widespread rains with heavy to very heavy falls are likely over Tamil Nadu, Pondicherry and Kerala during next 48 hours.

WARNING
Heavy to very heavy rainfall likely at a few places over Tamil Nadu, Pondicherry and Kerala. Squally weather with wind speed reaching 50 to 60 kmph likely along and off Tamil Nadu & Pondicherry coasts during the next 48 hours. State of the sea will be rough to very rough. Fishermen are advised not to venture into the sea along and off Tamil Nadu & Pondicherry coasts.

APCEDI will continue to monitor the progress of this tropical system. While APCEDI does not normally monitor cyclones in the Bay of Bengal, given AFAP's tsunami relief effort and that of many agencies in the region, APCEDI will continue to bring reports from this region, as warranted, for the next year or longer if needed.

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator
http://www.afap.org/apcedi/

To donate to AFAP's Disaster Preparedness, Relief and Rehabilitation Programs in Asia and the Pacific, go to http://www.afap.org and click on the "Donate On-Line" icon in the top righthand corner.

APCEDI ALERT Sri Lanka-BOBW Tropical Depression #3, 2006: Tropical Depression Brings Heavy Rains to Sri Lanka, Southeast India

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) and the Sri Lanka and India Departments of Meteorology continue to issue guidance on the tropical depression off the North Coast of Sri Lanka. The JTWC has downgraded the chances for development of a significant tropical cyclone in the area from fair to poor. However, the system is still capable of heavy rains, winds and storms and localised flooding over the area. The system continues to slowly drift northwest towards the Tamil Nadu-Andhra Pradesh coast.

The main areas of convection of this system lie over Sri Lanka and Southeastern India, and this convection continues to bring intermittent heavy rain along the North, Northwestern and Central areas of Sri Lanka, and these could continue over the next 24 hours. The India Meteorological Department has issued a Heavy Rain Warning as shower activity is becoming increasingly widespread and intense over Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh States and the Pondicherry Enclaves in Southeast India.

All interests in Sri Lanka and Southeastern India should continue to monitor the progress of this tropical system. All Government and aid workers (including all AFAP, NSRC, RRI and other affiliated aid workers) along the Northern Sri Lankan coast and in flood prone areas, should continue to carefully monitor this system and be prepared to assist communities in which they are working should the situation warrant and the Government of Sri Lanka issue any flood or storm warnings.

FROM JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER
http://www.npmoc.navy.mil/jtwc.html

1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 8.1N 84.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.5N 81.8E, APPROXIMATELY 195 NM NORTHEAST OF COLOMBO, SRI LANKA. RECENT ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 211452Z SSMI PASS INDICATE CONVECTION FLARING OVER A PREVIOUSLY FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE LLCC IS IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF MODERATE TO HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITH FAVORABLE POLEWARD DIVERGENCE ALOFT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE PROXIMITY OF THE SYSTEM TO INDIA AND THE MODERATE TO HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL LIMIT FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS POOR.

SRI LANKA DEPARTMENT OF METEOROLOGY
http://www.meteo.slt.lk/wxfc.html

22 November 2005 for 22-23 November 2005
The low pressure area in the Southwest Bay of Bengal still persists and it was about 100 kms east of Jaffna at 0230 on 22nd. It is likely to move in a north direction slowly. Under its influence cloudy conditions will prevail over most parts of the island. Intermittent showers and thundershowers will continue with strong winds at times in most places in the Eastern, Northern, North Central, Northwestern, Western, Sabaragamuwa and Central Provinces and Galle District with fairly heavy falls in some places. Showers accompanied by fairly strong winds are also expected at several places elsewhere elsewhere.

INDIAN DEPARTMENT OF METEOROLOGY
http://www.imd.gov.in/

Yesterday’s depression over southwest Bay of Bengal moved west-northwards and now lay centered today morning at 0830 hrs. IST with its center close to lat 8.5º N /long. 83.0º E about 400 km southeast of Nagapattinam. The system is likely to intensify further and move in a west-northwesterly direction. Under its influence, widespread rains with heavy to very heavy falls are likely over coastal Tamil Nadu & Pondicherry during next 2-3 days. Fairly widespread rains with isolated heavy falls also likely over interior Tamil Nadu, south Coastal Andhra Pradesh and Rayalaseema. This enhanced rainfall activity is likely to extend into Kerala, interior parts of Karnataka rest Andhra Pradesh after 48 hours.

HEAVY TO VERY HEAVY RAINFALL LIKELY AT A FEW PLACES OVER COASTAL TAMIL NADU & PONDICHERRY. ISOLATED HEAVY RAINS ALSO LIKELY OVER INTERIOR TAMIL NADU, SOUTH COASTAL ANDHRA PRADESH AND RAYALASEEMA.

APCEDI will continue to monitor the progress of this tropical system. While APCEDI does not normally monitor cyclones in the Bay of Bengal, given AFAP's tsunami relief effort and that of many agencies in the region, APCEDI will continue to bring reports from this region, as warranted, for the next year or longer if needed.

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator
http://www.afap.org/apcedi/

To donate to AFAP's Disaster Preparedness, Relief and Rehabilitation Programs in Asia and the Pacific, go to http://www.afap.org and click on the "Donate On-Line" icon in the top righthand corner.

APCEDI ALERT Sri Lanka-BOBW Tropical Depression #2, 2006: Tropical Depression Threatens Sri Lanka, Southeastern India

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) and the Sri Lanka and India Departments of Meteorology continue to issue guidance on the tropical depression off the Northeast Coast of Sri Lanka. The JTWC has downgraded the chances for development of a significant tropical cyclone in the area from fair to poor. However, the system is still capable of heavy rains, winds and storms over the area. The system is currently slowly drifting northwest towards the Tamil Nadu-Andhra Pradesh coast.

The main areas of convection of this system lie to the north of Sri Lanka and associated convection continues to bring intermittent heavy showers along the north and east coasts from Jaffna to Ampara, and these could continue over the next 24 hours over the East, Northwestern, Northcentral and Central Provinces depending on the system's track and forward speed. Shower activity will also become more widespread and intense over Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh States and the Pondicherry Enclaves in Southeast India.

All interests in Sri Lanka especially from Jaffna to Hambantota and around the Southwest Bay of Bengal should continue to monitor the progress of this tropical system. All Government and aid workers (including all AFAP, NSRC, RRI and other affiliated aid workers) along the east and northern Sri Lankan coasts, should continue to carefully monitor this system and be prepared to assist communities in which they are working should the situation warrant and the Government of Sri Lanka issue any flood or storm warnings.

FROM JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER
http://www.npmoc.navy.mil/jtwc.html

1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 7.6N 84.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.1N 84.3E, APPROXIMATELY 275 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF COLOMBO, SRI LANKA. RECENT ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 201231Z QUIKSCAT PASS REVEAL A FULLY-EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) DISPLACED APPROXIMATELY 100 NM EAST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE LLCC IS IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITH FAVORABLE DIVERGENCE OVER THE CONVECTION AND BROAD 850 MB VORTICITY TO THE EAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO POOR.

SRI LANKA DEPARTMENT OF METEOROLOGY
http://www.meteo.slt.lk/wxfc.html

21 November 2005 for 21-22 November 2005
The low pressure area in the Southwest Bay of Bengal still persists and it was about 200 km east of Trincomalee on 21 at 0900 hours. It is likely to move in a northwest direction slowly. Under its influence cloudy conditions will prevail over most parts of the island. Intermittent showers and thundershowers will continue with strong winds at times in most places in the Eastern, North Central, Northwestern and Central Provinces. Some places will receive heavy falls. Occasional showers accompanied by fairly strong winds are also expected elsewhere.

INDIAN DEPARTMENT OF METEOROLOGY
http://www.imd.gov.in/

Yesterday’s depression over southwest Bay of Bengal moved west-northwards and now lay centered today morning at 0830 hrs. IST with its center close to lat 8.5º N /long. 83.0º E about 400 km southeast of Nagapattinam. The system is likely to intensify further and move in a west-northwesterly direction. Under its influence, widespread rains with heavy to very heavy falls are likely over coastal Tamil Nadu & Pondicherry during next 2-3 days. Fairly widespread rains with isolated heavy falls also likely over interior Tamil Nadu, south Coastal Andhra Pradesh and Rayalaseema. This enhanced rainfall activity is likely to extend into Kerala, interior parts of Karnataka rest Andhra Pradesh after 48 hours.

APCEDI will continue to monitor the progress of this tropical system. While APCEDI does not normally monitor cyclones in the Bay of Bengal, given AFAP's tsunami relief effort and that of many agencies in the region, APCEDI will continue to bring reports from this region, as warranted, for the next year or longer if needed.

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator
http://www.afap.org/apcedi/

To donate to AFAP's Disaster Preparedness, Relief and Rehabilitation Programs in Asia and the Pacific, go to http://www.afap.org and click on the "Donate On-Line" icon in the top righthand corner.

APCEDI ALERT Sri Lanka-BOBW Tropical Depression #1, 2006: Tropical Depression Threatens to Form Cyclone off East Coast of Sri Lanka

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) and the Sri Lanka Department of Meteorology are issuing guidance on a deepening tropical depression off the East Coast of Sri Lanka. The JTWC has upgraded the chances for development of a significant tropical cyclone in the area from poor to fair. The system is currently slowly drifting west-northwest.

The main areas of convection of this system lies off the Sri Lanka coast although associated convection continues to bring intermittent showers to Batticaloa, Ampara and Hambantota Districts, and these could become more widespread and heavy in the next 24 hours over the East, Uva, North Northcentral and South Provinces depending on the system's track.

All interests in Sri Lanka especially from Jaffna to Galle and around the Bay of Bengal should monitor the development of this tropical system. This is a potentially serious situation that should be closely monitored by all Government and aid workers. All Government and aid workers (including all AFAP, NSRC, RRI and other affiliated aid workers) along the east and southern coast, should be prepared to help organise cyclone preparation activities for communities in which they are working should the situation warrant and the Government issue such warnings.

FROM JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER
http://www.npmoc.navy.mil/jtwc.html

1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 7.3N, 85.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.6N 84.7E, APPROXIMATELY 280 NM EAST OF COLOMBO, SRI LANKA. RECENT ENHANCED INFRARED AND ANIMATED WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS IMPROVED DEEP CONVECTION OVER A WEAKLY ORGANIZED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE LLCC IS IN AN AREA OF LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITH SOME POLEWARD DIVERGENCE ALOFT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO FAIR.

SRI LANKA DEPARTMENT OF METEOROLOGY
http://www.meteo.slt.lk/wxfc.html

19 November 2005 for 20 November 2005
The previous disturbance is the Southwest Bay of Bengal to the East of Sri Lanka is apparently re-intensifying. There will be showers or thundershowers in the Eastern, Northern, Uva, North Central and Central provinces. Thundershowers will develop at several places in the North western, Western and Sabaragamuwa provinces during the afternoon and evening. Showers or thundershowers, fairly strong winds, and rough seas are expected in the sea areas off the East and North-East coasts of the island. The public is again advised to pay more attention on subsequent weather information

APCEDI will continue to monitor the progress of this tropical system. While APCEDI does not normally monitor cyclones in the Bay of Bengal, given AFAP's tsunami relief effort and that of many agencies in the region, APCEDI will continue to bring reports from this region, as warranted, for the next year or longer if needed.

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator
http://www.afap.org/apcedi/

To donate to AFAP's Disaster Preparedness, Relief and Rehabilitation Programs in Asia and the Pacific, go to http://www.afap.org and click on the "Donate On-Line" icon in the top righthand corner.

APCEDI Alert FP #2-2006: Tropical Disturbances Continue Across French Polynesia

The Tropical Depression from earlier in the week passed into the Southern Ocean where it quickly turned extratropical. Another weak Tropical Disturbance has moved from the Cook Islands into French Polynesia prompting advisories from Meteo France for the Société Islands. The current disturbance is moving from the Société Islands into the Tuamotu Group. This disturbance is not expected to form a tropical cyclone at this time.

Only minor flooding and coastal erosion is being reported by French Polynesian authorities.

FRENCH POLYNESIA ALERT FROM METEO FRANCE VIA TAHITIPRESSE

L'avis de phénomène météorologique exceptionnel 2005/31 est en cours sur les îles de la Société.

PREVISIONS ETABLIES PAR METEO FRANCE LE 14 NOVEMBRE 2005 A 16h15 LOCALES

PREVISIONS PAR ARCHIPEL VALABLES JUSQU 'A MERCREDI SOIR.

L'avis de phénomène météorologique exceptionnel 2005/31 est en cours sur les îles de la Société.

ILES SOUS LE VENT :
Quelques averses parfois encore fortes cette nuit. Atténuation demain avec un ciel moins chargé et quelques averses isolées. Regain d'activité demain soir et mercredi avec des averses plus fréquentes.
Vent de secteur est à sud-est faible à modéré avec des pointes à 50/60 km/heure.
Mer peu agitée. Houle de sud-sud-ouest 1m50 à 2m et petite houle de nord.

TAHITI-MOOREA :
Ciel très nuageux avec des averses ou des grains passagers. Retour à un ciel moins chargé demain, mais persistance des averses en montagne et sur les côtes est et nord. Un regain d'activité est à craindre dans la nuit de mardi à mercredi. Les précipitations sont parfois de forte intensité.
Vent de secteur est faible à modéré avec accélérations côtières à 50/60 km/heure.
Mer agitée. Houle de sud-sud-ouest 1m50 à 2m et petite houle de nord.
Températures extrêmes prévues: 25/27°C.

MARQUISES :
Ciel très nuageux avec averses.
Demain et mercredi, les averses sont fréquentes et accompagnées de grains.
Vent faible de secteur nord. Rafales possibles à 50/60Km/Heure.
Mer peu agitée. Houle de sud 1m à 1.50m, croisée avec une houle de nord 1m/1m50.

TUAMOTU ET GAMBIER :
Sur le nord-ouest des Tuamotu : De Mataiva à Takaroa, Rangiroa jusqu'à Anaa, Makemo : temps devenant très nuageux, averses souvent accompagnées de grains. Nette aggravation sur cette région mercredi avec des averses fréquentes et parfois fortes. Sur le reste des Tuamotu et Gambier, le ciel reste peu à passagèrement nuageux avec des averses isolées ces deux jours.
Sur le sud-est Tuamotu et aux Gambier vent de secteur sud modéré venant au Sud-est modéré demain.
Vers Rangiroa vent variable faible de nord-est à nord dominant. Sur le reste des Tuamotu vent faible d'est à sud-est faible à modéré. Rafales à 60/70Km/Heure sous grains.
Mer peu agitée au nord Tuamotu et agitée ailleurs. Houle de sud-sud-ouest 2m aux Gambier et 1.50m à 2m. ailleurs. Houle de nord 1m/1m50.

AUSTRALES :
Ciel nuageux, souvent voilé. Quelques averses isolées au nord de l'archipel .
A Rapa vent de sud-est modéré venant au secteur est mercredi.
Au nord de l'archipel vent d'est faible.
Mer peu agitée à agitée. Houle de sud-sud-ouest 1.50m à 2m.

COMPLEMENT POUR LA PECHE ET LA NAVIGATION DE PLAISANCE DANS LE TRIANGLE TAHITI MAUPITI MANIHI :
Il n'y a pas d'avis de vent fort en cours ni prévu.
Vers Manihi, vent variable faible 2Bf, nord-est à nord dominant. Mer peu agitée.
Houle de sud 1m à 1.50m croisée avec une houle de nord 1m à 1.50m.
Sur la Société : vent de secteur est 3/4Bf, pointes 20/25kt par effet côtier. Mer peu agitée. Houle de sud-sud-ouest 1m50 à 2m et petite houle de nord.

APCEDI will continue to monitor the progress of this system as it heads across French Polynesia. Given the current water temperatures in the Pacific, this looks like it could be another rough year for the Central South Pacific including French Polynesia and the Cook Islands.

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator

APCEDI Alert FP #1-2006: First Tropical Depression (D1) of the Season Forms in French Polynesia

The first tropical depression of the South Pacific season has formed in French Polynesia in the southern Tuamotu Group. Topical Depression D1 is currently bringing strong rain and winds with gusts to tropical storm strength to the Southeast Tuamotu and the Gambier Groups. The depression is moving to the southeast at 10 kts and is not expected to form into a tropical storm or cyclone at this point due to the increasingly cold waters into which it is heading and its swift forward speed.

Only minor flooding is being reported by French Polynesian authorities at this time.

FRENCH POLYNESIA ALERT FROM METEO FRANCE VIA TAHITIPRESSE

Avis de phénomène météorologique exceptionnel en cours

TUAMOTU ET GAMBIER :
Sur les Tuamotu du nord et vers Napuka et Pukapuka, un ciel peu nuageux cette nuit, devenant nuageux à localement très nuageux samedi avec des passages d'averses voire quelques grains isolés dimanche.

Ailleurs, de Hereheretue à Anaa, Hao, Reao, Tureia, Tematangi, Moruroa et Rikitea, un ciel très nuageux à couvert avec des averses et des grains cette nuit, devenant plus fréquents et intenses samedi. Les précipitations seront de forte intensité et parfois orageux sur le sud-est Tuamotu et les Gambier en particulier. Retour à un temps variable dimanche de Anaa à Hereheretue gagnant Hao avec éclaircies et averses.

Sur le sud Tuamotu vent modéré de sud à sud-est. Sur le reste des Tuamotu et les Gambier, vent de nord à nord-ouest faible à modéré devenant assez fort sur le sud-est Tuamotu et les Gambier, avec orientation au secteur sud puis sud-est vers Moruroa samedi gagnant dimanche le centre Tuamotu. Les pointes atteignent 80/90 km/heure dans les zones à grains.

Mer devenant agitée, localement forte sur le sud-est Tuamotu et les Gambier. Houle de sud-ouest 2m/2m50 sur le sud de l'archipel et 1m50 à 2m ailleurs. Petite houle de nord.

APCEDI will continue to monitor the progress of this system as it heads out into the Southern Ocean. Given the current water temperatures in the Pacific, this looks like it could be another rough year for the Central Pacific including French Polynesia and the Cook Islands.

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator