APCEDI Alert SP/CI 15P Rene #7-2010: Cyclone Rene Wrap-up, Rene moving away from Tonga

The RSMC-Nadi Tropical Cyclone Centre and the Joint Typhoon Warning Centre are issuing guidance on Cyclone Rene, a tropical cyclone is moving away from Tonga.

Cyclone Rene is located 200 nautical miles (370 km) southwest of Nukualofa this morning. Cyclone Rene is weakening rapidly as it is now in colder waters and is moving southwest at 13 knots. Close to its centre, the cyclone is estimated to have average sustained winds of 60 knots making it a borderline Category 1 storm on the Saffir-Simpson Scale.

Cyclone Rene battered the southern Tonga Group of Ha'apai and the main island of Tongatapu and 'Eua yesterday as a Category 2 storm on the Saffir-Simpson Scale after battering the Vava'u Group the day before. There are widespread reports of tree and crop damage across all Groups, and most communications and power are still out, although they are being slowly restored. Initial reports are outlining widespread minor to locally moderate damage to homes, but less less structural damage than was earlier estimated. Considerable beach erosion and coastal flooding occurred in some areas.

Government and NGOs teams will be spreading out across the affected Tonga groups today and tomorrow to do rapid surveys of the situation.

Cyclone warnings have been lowered in all areas.

Please go to http://www.afap.org/apcedi/ for the complete interactive alert on Cyclone Rene.
________________________________________
Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator

To donate to AFAP's Disaster Preparedness, Relief and Rehabilitation Programs in Asia and the Pacific, go to http://www.afap.org and click on the "Donate On-Line" icon in the top right-hand corner.

To sign up for AFAP's free APCEDI email service, please go to http://www.afap.org/apcedi/ and register your email address.

APCEDI Alert SP/CI 15P Rene #6-2010: Cyclone Rene Battering Tonga Groups

The RSMC-Nadi Tropical Cyclone Centre and the Joint Typhoon Warning Centre are issuing guidance on Cyclone Rene, a tropical cyclone that lashed American Samoa and now battering Tonga's Central and Southern Groups.

Cyclone Rene is located 50 nautical miles (93 km) southwest of the Vava'u Group or about 115 nautical miles north-northeast of Nukualofa this morning. Cyclone Rene likely has peaked in intensity and is moving southwest at 12 knots. Close to its centre, the cyclone is estimated to have average sustained winds of 90 knots with momentary gusts to 130 knots making it a borderline Category 2-3 storm on the Saffir-Simpson Scale. It is forecast to move across Tonga at or near this level of intensity

Cyclone Rene is now battering Tonga. Overnight Rene hit the Vava'u group causing widespread damage. Contact was lost with much of the group overnight. Reports of widespread damage to homes, trees, roads, powerlines are slowly coming in along with extensive coastal flooding. Cyclone Rene is now bearing down in the Ha'apai and this group will take the full brunt of the storm today. Widespread damage is expected consistent with a Category 2-3 storm on the Saffir-Simpson Scale. Fortunately all the islands have had extensive warnings, so residents in low-lying and vulnerable areas have been evacuated to safe buildings.

The Tonga Government maintains a Hurricane Warning for the Ha'apai Group, the capital island of Tongatapu and 'Eua. A Tropical Cyclone Gale Warning remains for the Vava'u Group and a Strong Wind Warning for the Niuas. Cyclone Rene continues to be a major storm, and this remains a very dangerous situation for Tonga. All residents in Tonga should continue to heed all Government advice and rush cyclone preparations to completion.

All cyclone warnings have now been lowered for Niue, Samoa and American Samoa. Fiji's Southern Lau group to maintain vigilance as Cyclone Rene may pass near to the southernmost islands in the group.

The following is an interactive list of the situation in each island group:

TONGA

Special Weather Bulletin Number SEVENTEEN for Tonga ON SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE RENE ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Feb 14/2341 UTC 2010 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR HA'APAI, NOMUKA, TONGATAPU GROUPS, EUA AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS. A GALE WARNING IS IN FORCE FOR VAVAU GROUP. A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FORCE FOR THE NIUAS.

SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE RENE CENTRE [940HPA] CAT 4 LOCATED NEAR 19.4S 174.4W OR ABOUT 50 NAUTICAL MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF VAVAU OR ABOUT 115 NAUTICAL MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF NUKUALOFA AT 142300 UTC. THE CYCLONE IS MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 12 KNOTS. CLOSE TO ITS CENTRE, THE CYCLONE IS ESTIMATED TO HAVE AVERAGE SUSTAINED WINDS OF 90 KNOTS WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 130 KNOTS.

ON THIS FORECAST TRACK THE CYCLONE CENTRE IS EXPECTED TO LIE ABOUT 50 NAUTICAL MILES WEST OF NUKUALOFA OR ABOUT 120 NAUTICAL MILES SOUTHWEST OF HA'APAI AT 151100 UTC AND ABOUT 190 NAUTICAL MILES SOUTHWEST OF NUKUALOFA OR ABOUT 275 NAUTICAL MILES SOUTHTHWEST OF HA'APAI AT 152300 UTC.

DESTRUCTIVE WINDS WILL BEGIN A FEW HOURS BEFORE THE CYCLONE CENTRE MOVES OVERHEAD OR NEARBY.

FOR HA'APAI, NOMUKA AND TONGATAPU GROUPS, EUA AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS:
VERY DESTRUCTIVE HURRICANE FORCE WINDS WITH SPEEDS OF 90 KNOTS WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS OF 130 KNOTS. FREQUENT HEAVY RAIN AND SQUALLY THUNDESRTORMS. SEAS PHENOMINAL. DAMAGING HEAVY SWELLS. FLOODING INCLUDING SEA FLOODING OF LOW-LYING COASTAL AREAS.

FOR VAVAU:
DAMAGING GALE FORCE WINDS WITH SPEEDS OF 35 TO 40 KNOTS AND MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. WINDS GRADUALLY EASING LATER TONIGHT. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND SQUALLY THUNDESRTORMS. HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS. DAMAGING HEAVY SWELLS GRADUALLY ABATING OVERNIGHT. FLOODING INCLUDING SEA FLOODING OF LOW-LYING COASTAL AREAS STILL EXPECTED.

FOR THE NIUAS:
WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS GRADUALLY EASING LATER TODAY. OCCASIONAL RAIN, POSSIBLY AND SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. VERY ROUGH SEAS. HEAVY SWELLS. FLOODING INCLUDING SEA FLOODING OF LOW-LYING COASTAL AREAS POSSIBLE.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED ESPECIALLY FOR MARINERS:
WINDS ABOVE 63 KNOTS WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE WITH PHENOMINAL SEAS. WINDS ABOVE 47 KNOTS WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE WITH VERY HIGH SEAS. WINDS ABOVE 33 KNOTS WITHIN 180 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN THE SOUTHEAST SEMI-CIRCLE AND WITHIN 120 MILES OF CENTRE IN THE NORTHWEST SEMI-CIRCLE WITH HIGH SEAS. STRONG CYCLONIC WINDS 25 TO 30 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 45 KNOTS WITHIN 180 MILES OF CENTRE WITH VERY ROUGH SEAS. DAMAGING HEAVY SWELLS.

THE NEXT SPECIAL WEATHER BULLETIN FOR TONGA WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 150230 UTC OR EARLIER.

PLEASE ACKNOWLEDGE RECEIPT OF THIS BULLETIN.

APCEDI will continue to monitor the progress of this system.

Please go to http://www.afap.org/apcedi/ for the complete interactive alert on Cyclone Rene.
________________________________________
Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator

To donate to AFAP's Disaster Preparedness, Relief and Rehabilitation Programs in Asia and the Pacific, go to http://www.afap.org and click on the "Donate On-Line" icon in the top right-hand corner.

To sign up for AFAP's free APCEDI email service, please go to http://www.afap.org/apcedi/ and register your email address.

APCEDI Alert SP/CI 15P Rene #5-2010: Cyclone Rene Departs American Samoa, Bears Down on Tonga

The RSMC-Nadi Tropical Cyclone Centre, the Joint Typhoon Warning Centre and the US National Weather Service are issuing guidance on Cyclone Rene, a tropical cyclone that lashed American Samoa and now threatening Tonga's Central and Southern Groups.

Cyclone Rene is located 380km east of Niuatoputapu or about 500km northeast of Vava'u at 7:00am this morning local Tonga time. Cyclone Rene is intensifying and moving
south-southwest at 10 knots. Close to its centre, the cyclone is estimated to have average sustained winds of 80 knots with momentary gusts to 110 knots increasing later today to 95 knots with momentary gusts to 130 knots in the next 24 hours making it a borderline Category 2-3 storm on the Saffir-Simpson Scale. It is forecast to move across Tonga as a major Category 3 storm.

Cyclone Rene is now taking aim at Tonga. The Tonga Government has raised a Hurricane Warning for the Vava'u Group and a Storm Warning for the Ha'apai Group, the main island of Tongatapu and 'Eua. A Tropical Cyclone Gale Warning has also been raised for Niue. Cyclone Rene is developing into a major storm, and this is a very dangerous situation for Tonga and Niue depending on the final path. All residents in Tonga and Niue should heed all Government advice and rush cyclone preparations to completion.

American Samoa took a good beating from Cyclone Rene. Most southern and eastern coastal areas of the main islands were evacuated. Widespread minor to locally moderate damage is being reported from Manu'a, and widespread minor damage from across Tutuila and Aunuu, but fortunately Cyclone Rene had moved to the south of the islands before it gained Category 2 status. Power is slowly being restored across the Manu'a Group. Likewise in Samoa, the Government evacuated vulnerable southern and eastern coastal areas of Upolu. However, only some minor damage has been reported. Authorities in both Samoas had been very worried about the cumulative effects of last years tsunami particularly on southern coastal areas.

The following is an interactive list of the situation in each island group:

TONGA

A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT REMAINS IN FORCE FOR TONGA.

A HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN FORCE FOR THE VAVA’U GROUP (population 20,000).

A STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN FORCE FOR HA’APAI (population 8,000), TONGATAPU (population 72,000) AND ‘EUA ISLAND (population 5,200).

NIUE

A TROPICAL CYCLONE GALE WARNING IS NOW IN FORCE FOR NIUE (population 1,400)

AMERICAN SAMOA

GALE WARNING AND FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR MANU'A GROUP (population 1,700), TUTUILA (population 55,000) AND AUNUU (population 500).

SAMOA

STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR OPEN COASTAL WATERS TO THE SOUTH OF UPOLU ISLAND (population 135,000). GALE WARNING IS NOW CANCELLED FOR THE EAST AND NORTHERN SIDE OF UPOLU BUT IT IS STILL IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN SIDE AND HIGHLANDS. HIGH WIND ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE REST OF UPOLU AND SOUTHEAST SAVAI'I (population 43,000). Flood Advisory remains in effect for Upolu

TONGA

SPECIAL WEATHER BULLETIN NUMBER NINE FOR TONGA ON SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE RENE ISSUED FROM NWFC FUA'AMOTU AT 1:00PM SUNDAY 14 FEBRUARY 2010

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

A HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN FORCE FOR THE VAVA’U GROUP.

A STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN FORCE FOR HA’APAI, TONGATAPU AND ‘EUA ISLAND GROUPS.

SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE RENE CENTRE WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.7S 171.0W OR ABOUT 350KM NORTHEAST OF VAVA’U OR ABOUT 650KM NORTHEAST OF NUKU’ALOFA AT 12:00PM THIS AFTERNOON. THE CYCLONE IS INTENSIFYING AND MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 13 KNOTS. CLOSE TO ITS CENTRE, THE CYCLONE IS ESTIMATED TO HAVE AVERAGE SUSTAINED WINDS OF 80 KNOTS WITH MONENTARY GUSTS TO 110 KNOTS INCREASING TO 90 KNOTS WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 130 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ON THIS FORECAST TRACK THE CYCLONE CENTRE IS EXPECTED TO LIE ABOUT 160KM EAST-NORTHEAST OF VAVAU OR ABOUT 430KM NORTHEAST OF NUKUALOFA AT 12:00AM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

DESTRUCTIVE WINDS WILL BEGIN A FEW HOURS BEFORE THE CYCLONE CENTRE MOVES OVERHEAD OR NEARBY.

FOR THE VAVAU GROUP :
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASING TO VERY DESTRUCTIVE HURRICANCE FORCE WITH AVERAGE SPEEDS OF 80-90KNOTS WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 130 KNOTS.FREQUENT HEAVY RAIN AND SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. SEAS INCREASING TO PHENOMINAL. DAMAGING HEAVY SWELLS. FLOODING INCLUDING SEA FLOODING OF LOW-LYING COASTAL AREAS EXPECTED.

FOR HA’APAI, TONGATAPU AND ‘EUA:
EXPECT STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASING TO DESTRUCTIVE STORM FORCE WITH AVERAGE SPEEDS OF 60KTS WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 80KTS.FREQUENT HEAVY RAIN AND SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS. DAMAGING HEAVY SWELLS.FLOODING INCLUDING SEA FLOODING OF LOW-LYING COASTAL AREAS EXPECTED.

FOR THE NIUATOPUTAPU, NIUAFO’OU AND TAFAHI:
EXPECT WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS 35 KNOTS.PERIODS OF RAIN HEAVY AT TIMES AND SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS. HEAVY SWELLS. FLOODING INCLUDING SEA FLOODING OF LOW-LYING COASTAL AREAS POSSIBLE.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED ESPECIALLY FOR MARINERS: HURRICANE FORCE WINDS WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE WITH PHENOMINAL SEAS. STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE AND GALE FORCE WINDS WITHIN 160NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE. DAMAGING HEAVY SWELLS.

TIDES
LOW TIDE 01:54PM
HIGH TIDE 08:00PM

THE MEAN SEA LEVEL PRESSURE RECORDED AT FUA’AMOTU AT 1:00PM WAS 1005.9MB.

THE NEXT SPECIAL WEATHER BULLETIN FOR TONGA WITH BE ISSUED AROUND 4:00PM THIS AFTERNOON (14/2/2010)

OT/SV/UV/OF

APCEDI will continue to monitor the progress of this system.

Please go to http://www.afap.org/apcedi/ for the complete interactive alert on Cyclone Rene.
________________________________________
Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator

To donate to AFAP's Disaster Preparedness, Relief and Rehabilitation Programs in Asia and the Pacific, go to http://www.afap.org and click on the "Donate On-Line" icon in the top right-hand corner.

To sign up for AFAP's free APCEDI email service, please go to http://www.afap.org/apcedi/ and register your email address.

APCEDI Alert SP/CI 15P Rene #4-2010: Cyclone Rene Batters American Samoa, Bears Down on Samoa and Tonga

The RSMC-Nadi Tropical Cyclone Centre, the Joint Typhoon Warning Centre and the US National Weather Service are issuing guidance on Cyclone Rene, a tropical cyclone that is battering American Samoa and moving later today onto the Samoa and Tonga Regions.

Cyclone Rene is currently located 40 miles (65 kms) northeast of Manu'a in American Samoa or 100 miles (160 kms) northeast of Pago Pago, the capital of American Samoa. It is moving west-southwest at 12 kts. Maximum sustained winds are 60 kts making Rene a borderline Category 1 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale. Cyclone Rene is expected to slowly strengthen into tomorrow and is forecast to reach Category 2 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale moves out of American Samoa and into Tonga. Most models are forecasting Cyclone Rene to continue moving southwesterly over the next 24 hours.

American Samoa continues to bear the impact of Cyclone Rene, and the US National Weather Service is maintaining a Hurricane Warning for most of the region including all major islands.

Radio New Zealand International is reporting that the international airport in the capital, Pago Pago, has been closed. All government offices have also been closed for the day so that employees can secure their homes. All government schools, the community college and most private schools are closed. The cyclone began battering American Samoa's Manu'a island group at about 9am on Friday. There are reports of roofs being blown away and trees uprooted but none of any injuries.

A Gale Warning is now in effect for Samoa, and Cyclone Alerts have been raised for all of Tonga and Niue. Residents and interests in Samoa, Tonga, Niue and Fiji's Lau Group should monitor the storm closely, complete all cyclone preaprations as required and follow all Government advice as Cyclone Rene could pose a threat in 12-48 hours.

All cyclone warnings have been lowered for the Cook Islands.

The following is an interactive list of the situation in each island group:

AMERICAN SAMOA

HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MANU'A GROUP (population 1,700), TUTUILA (population 55,000) AND AUNUU (population 500).

SAMOA

A GALE WARNING AND FLOOD ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR UPOLU ISLAND (population 135,000). A GALE WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR SAVAI'I (population 43,000).

TONGA

A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT REMAINS IN FORCE FOR TONGA.

A GALE WARNING IS NOW IN-FORCE FOR NIUAFO’OU (population 650), NIUATOPUTAPU (population 940) AND TAFAHI (population 90).

A STRONG WIND WARNING IS ALSO IN FORCE FOR THE REST OF TONGA.

NIUE

A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT IS NOW IN FORCE AND.
A STRONG WIND WARNING IS NOW IN FORCE FOR NIUE (population 1,400)

TROPICAL CYCLONE RENE - LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PAGO PAGO AS
1200 PM SST FRI FEB 12 2010

...A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR TUTUILA AUNUU AND MANU'A...

...NEW INFORMATION...
HURRICANE RENE WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.0 SOUTH 169.0 WEST OR ABOUT 40 MILES NORTHEAST OF MANU'A...OR ABOUT 100 MILES NORTHEAST OF TUTUILA AT 10 AM SST LOCAL TIME FRIDAY... MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10 MPH. IF RENE CONTINUES TO MOVE ON THIS TRACK...IT WILL BE OVER MANU'A AROUND 3 PM TODAY...AND WILL BE NEAR TUTUILA AROUND 10 PM FRIDAY NIGHT.

...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES IMPORTANT INFORMATION AND RECOMMENDED ACTIONS FOR PEOPLE AND MARINE INTERESTS IN TUTUILA...AUNUU AND MANUA.

...WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MANU'A TUTUILA AND AUNUU.

...STORM INFORMATION...
AT 1100 AM SST...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.0 SOUTH... LONGITUDE 169.0 EAST OR ABOUT 40 MILES NORTHEAST OF MANU'A...OR 100 MILES NORTHEAST OF TUTUILA.

RENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST AT 10 MPH AND INTENSIFYING AS IT MOVES WEST-SOUTHWEST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 75 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AS RENE APPROACHES TUTUILA.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
ALL RESIDENTS ON MANU'A SHOULD REMAIN INDOORS UNTIL THE HURRICANE EYE PASSES MANU'A. AS THE EYE PASSES MANU'A...YOU WILL EXPECT CALM WINDS AND FAIR WEATHER. HOWEVER...STRONGER WINDS WILL RETURN AS THE BACK SIDE OF THE HURRICANE MOVES AWAY FROM THE REST OF THE MANU'A ISLANDS THIS AFTERNOON.DO NOT BE FOOLED TO LEAVE YOUR HOME UNTIL RENE MOVES FARTHER AWAY FROM YOUR LOCATION.

ALL RESIDENTS ON TUTUILA AND AUNU'U SHOULD TAKE NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. PREPARATIONS SUCH AS SECURING TENTS AND LOOSE ITEMS...AND TYING DOWN AND BOARDING OF HOME SHOULD BE COMPLETED BY NOW.

HEED THE ADVICE OF LOCAL OFFICIALS AND COMPLY WITH ANY ORDERS THAT ARE ISSUED. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT OR SEEK SAFE HARBOR. FOR INTERESTS AT PORTS...DOCKS...AND MARINAS...IT IS RECOMMENDED THAT YOU PERFORM THE PRESCRIBED PREPARATIONS ACCORDING TO YOUR EMERGENCY OPERATIONS PLAN FOR HURRICANE RENE. IF YOU LIVE ON A BOAT...YOU SHOULD HAVE SAFELY SECURED YOUR CRAFT AND MAKE PLANS TO LEAVE IT FOR ADEQUATE LAND BASED SHELTER.

FOR ADDITIONAL PRECAUTIONARY AND PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION...PLEASE REFER TO THE DETAILED RECOMMENDATIONS RELATIVE TO YOUR LOCATION AS FURTHER DESCRIBED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE AND YOUR EMERGENCY OPERATIONS CENTER MANAGEMENT.

...WIND IMPACTS...
MANU'A...HURRICANE FORCE WINDS OF 60 TO 75 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 90 MPH. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO NEAR 40 TO 55 MPH SATURDAY MORNING.

TUTUILA AND AUNUU...SOUTH WINDS 25 TO 40 MPH INCREASING TO 45 TO 60 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 70 MPH THIS AFTERNOON...THEN CONTINUE INCREASING TO HURRICANE FORCE WINDS OF 65 TO 75 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 90 MPH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
DANGEROUS SURF HEIGHTS OF 15 TO 18 FEET ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT NORTH...EAST AND SOUTHEAST FACING SHORES ON TUTUILA...AUNUU AND MANUA.

RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH ISOLATED 6 INCH TOTAL ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE PATH OF RENE PARTICULARLY OVER TUTUILA AUNUU AND MANU'A.

...NEXT UPDATES...
THE NEXT SCHEDULED STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED AT 300 PM SST FRIDAY.

APCEDI will continue to monitor the progress of this system.

Please go to http://www.afap.org/apcedi/ for the complete interactive alert on Cyclone Rene.
________________________________________
Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator

To donate to AFAP's Disaster Preparedness, Relief and Rehabilitation Programs in Asia and the Pacific, go to http://www.afap.org and click on the "Donate On-Line" icon in the top right-hand corner.

To sign up for AFAP's free APCEDI email service, please go to http://www.afap.org/apcedi/ and register your email address.

APCEDI Alert SP/CI 15P Rene #3-2010: Cyclone Rene Bearing down on American Samoa

The RSMC-Nadi Tropical Cyclone Centre, the Joint Typhoon Warning Centre and the US National Weather Service are issuing guidance on Cyclone Rene, a tropical cyclone that is bearing down on American Samoa.

Cyclone Rene is currently located 204 miles (330 kms) northeast of Manu'a in American Samoa or 240 miles (390 kms) northeast of Pago Pago, the capital of American Samoa. It is moving southwest at 9 kts. Maximum sustained winds are 60 kts making Rene a borderline Category 1 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale. Cyclone Rene is expected to slowly strengthen into tomorrow and is forecast to reach Category 2 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale in 24-36 hours as it approaches American Samoa. Most models are forecasting Cyclone Rene to continue moving southwesterly over the next 24 hours.

American Samoa is now under direct threat from Cyclone Rene in the next 24 hours, and the US National Weather Service has issued a Hurricane Warning for most of the region including all major islands. Residents and interests in American Samoa should rush all cyclone preparations to completion and follow all advice provided by the Government.

Residents and interests in Samoa, Tonga, Niue and Fiji's Lau Group should monitor the storm closely and follow all Government advice as Cyclone Rene could pose a threat in 24-48 hours.

Cyclone Rene is moving away from the Cook Island, but residents and interests should remain vigilant until the storm is well clear of the region and the Government has lowered all warnings.

The following is an interactive list of the situation in each island group:

AMERICAN SAMOA

HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MANU'A GROUP (population 1,700), TUTUILA (population 55,000) AND AUNUU (population 500).

SAMOA

A GALE WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR UPOLU ISLAND (population 135,000)

NIUE

A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR NIUE (population 1,400)

NORTHERN COOK ISLANDS

A TROPICAL CYCLONE GALE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR NASSAU (population 75).

A STRONG WIND WARNING IS IN FORCE FOR PUKAPUKA (population 600) AND SUWARROW (population 1-2 caretakers).

SOUTHERN COOK ISLANDS

A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR SOUTHERN COOKS WATERS.

TROPICAL CYCLONE RENE - LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PAGO PAGO AS
300 AM SST FRI FEB 12 2010

...A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR TUTUILA AUNUU AND MANU'A...

...NEW INFORMATION...
TROPICAL CYCLONE RENE WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.7 SOUTH 167.5 WEST OR ABOUT 90 MILES NORTHEAST OF MANU'A AND ABOUT 230 MILES NORTHEAST OF PAGO PAGO AT 12 AM LOCAL TIME FRIDAY...MOVING SOUTHWEST 8 MPH. IF RENE CONTINUES TO MOVE ON THIS TRACK...THEN IT WILL BE AT 14.1 SOUTH 168.8 WEST BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON OR ABOUT 70 MILES NORTHEAST OF MANU'A...AND AT 14.7 SOUTH 170.5 WEST OR ABOUT 20 MILES SOUTH OF PAGO PAGO BY FRIDAY NIGHT. RENE IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHWESTWARD.

...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY RESIDENTS OF TUTUILA, AUNUU AND MANUA.

...WATCHES AND WARNINGS...
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MANU'A.
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR TUTUILA AND AUNUU.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 75 MPH OR HIGHER ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR.

...STORM INFORMATION...
TROPICAL CYCLONE RENE WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES WEST-SOUTHWEST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
ALL RESIDENTS OF AMERICAN SAMOA SHOULD TAKE NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. PREPARATIONS SUCH AS SECURING TENTS AND LOOSE ITEMS...AND TYING DOWN AND BOARDING OF HOME SHOULD BEGIN IN ALL OF AMERICAN SAMOA.

...WIND IMPACTS...
ON MANUA...SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 50 TO 60 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 70 MPH ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY MORNING...THEN INCREASING TO 65 TO 75 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 90 MPH BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. ON TUTUILA AND AUNUU...SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 15 MPH WILL INCREASE TO 25 TO 40 MPH BY FRIDAY MORNING...THEN INCREASING TO 45 TO 60 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 70 MPH BY FRIDAY LATE AFTERNOON...THEN INCREASING TO 65 TO 75 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 90 MPH FRIDAY NIGHT.

...STORM SURGE AND TIDE IMPACTS...
HAZARDOUS SURF HEIGHTS OF 10 TO 12 FEET WILL BUILD TO NEAR 13 TO 15 FEET BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND IT WILL AFFECT NORTH...EAST AND SOUTHEAST FACING SHORES ON TUTUILA...AUNUU AND MANUA.

...NEXT UPDATES...
THE NEXT SCHEDULED STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN PAGO PAGO AT 600 AM SST FRIDAY OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS WARRANTS.

APCEDI will continue to monitor the progress of this system.

Please go to http://www.afap.org/apcedi/ for the complete interactive alert on Cyclone Rene.
________________________________________
Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator

To donate to AFAP's Disaster Preparedness, Relief and Rehabilitation Programs in Asia and the Pacific, go to http://www.afap.org and click on the "Donate On-Line" icon in the top right-hand corner.

To sign up for AFAP's free APCEDI email service, please go to http://www.afap.org/apcedi/ and register your email address.

APCEDI Alert SP/CI 15P Rene #2-2010: Cyclone Rene moving slowly through Northern Cook's Waters

The RSMC-Nadi Tropical Cyclone Centre, and the Joint Typhoon Warning Centre are issuing guidance on Cyclone Rene, a tropical cyclone that is slowly moving in through the open waters of the Northern Cook Islands.

This system is currently located 105 nautical miles (195 kms) south-southwest of Nassau Island in the Northern Cook Islands. It is moving south-aouthwest at 7 knots. Maximum sustained winds are 55 kts making Rene a strong tropical storm. Cyclone Rene is expected to slowly strengthen into tomorrow and is forecast to reach Category 1 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale. Most models are forecasting Cyclone Rene to move in a southwesterly motios over the next 24 hours.

On its current track, Cyclone Rene has the potential to affect a number of island groups including the Northern Cooks, Southern Cooks, American Samoa and Samoa in the short-term and thereafter may also pose a threat to Niue, Tonga and the Lau Group of Fiji. Therefore, all these island groups should exercise vigilance, listen to Government warnings and be ready to undertake cyclone preparations when called upon by local authorities

The following is an interactive list of the situation in each island group:

NORTHERN COOK ISLANDS

A TROPICAL CYCLONE GALE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR NASSAU (population 75).

A STRONG WIND WARNING IS IN FORCE FOR PUKAPUKA (population 600) AND SUWARROW (population 1-2 caretakers).

SOUTHERN COOK ISLANDS

A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR SOUTHERN COOKS WATERS.

AMERICAN SAMOA

HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MANU'A GROUP (population 1700)
A STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MANU'A GROUP (population 1700)
A STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR TUTUILA (population 55,000) AND AUNUU (population 500).

SAMOA

A GALE WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR UPOLU ISLAND (population 135,000)

NIUE

A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR NIUE (population 1,400)

APCEDI will continue to monitor the progress of this system.

Please go to http://www.afap.org/apcedi/ for the complete interactive alert on Cyclone Rene.
________________________________________
Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator

To donate to AFAP's Disaster Preparedness, Relief and Rehabilitation Programs in Asia and the Pacific, go to http://www.afap.org and click on the "Donate On-Line" icon in the top right-hand corner.

To sign up for AFAP's free APCEDI email service, please go to http://www.afap.org/apcedi/ and register your email address.

APCEDI Alert SP/CI 15P Rene #1-2010: Cyclone Rene forms in Northern Cook Islands

The RSMC-Nadi Tropical Cyclone Centre, and the Joint Typhoon Warning Centre are issuing guidance on Cyclone Rene, a tropical cyclone that has formed earlier today over the Northern Cook Islands.

This system is currently located 70 nautical miles (130 kms) southwest of Nassau Island and 90 nautical miles (170 kms) south-southwest of Pukapuka in the Northern Cook Islands. It is moving east at 8 knots. Maximum sustained winds are 45 kts making Rene a tropical storm. Cyclone Rene is expected to slowly strengthen into tomorrow and may reach Category 1 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale. Most models are forecasting Cyclone Rene to slowly turn southeast and then south over the next 24 hours.

The Cook Islands have raised a Tropical Cyclone Gale Warning for Nassau (population 75) and Pukapuka Island (population 600). A Tropical Cyclone Alert has been raised for Suwarrow (population 1-2 caretakes)

All residents of the Northern Cooks, Southern Cooks, Samoa and French Polynesia should monitor this cyclone carefully. Residents in the affected islands of the Northern Cooks should rush cyclone completion to a finish and follow all Government advice. Recent Cyclones Oli and Pat have caused beach erosion and high seas in many areas of the Cooks, so there could be significant cumulative effects.

Special Weather Bulletin Number ONE for Northern Cooks ON TROPICAL CYCLONE RENE ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Feb 11/1106 UTC 2010 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

A TROPICAL CYCLONE GALE WARNING IS NOW IN FORCE FOR NASSAU, PUKAPUKA AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS.

A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT IS NOW IN FORCE FOR SUWARROW.

TROPICAL CYCLONE RENE CENTRE [995HPA][CAT 1] LOCATED NEAR 12 DECIMAL 2 SOUTH 166 DECIMAL 5 WEST OR ABOUT 70 NAUTICAL MILES SOUTHWEST OF NASSAU AND 90 NAUTICAL MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF PUKAPUKA AT 110900 UTC. MAXIMUM 10 MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT 35 KNOTS WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS UP TO 50 KNOTS AND EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 45 KNOTS WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS UP TO 60 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. RENE IS CURRENTLY MOVING EAST AT 08 KNOTS AND EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TURN SOUTHEAST THEN SOUTH IN THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS.

ON THIS FORECAST TRACK, GALE FORCE WINDS IS EXPECTED TO AFFFECT NASSAU, PUKAPUKA AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS AS THE CENTRE PASSES NEARBY.

FOR NASSAU, PUKAPUKA AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS: WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 50 KNOTS AND EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 45 KNOTS WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PERIODS OF RAIN, HEAVY AT TIMES WITH SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS INCLUDING SEA FLOODING.VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS. MODERATE TO HEAVY SWELLS.

FOR SUWARROW:
NORTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS, POSSIBILY INCREASING TO 35 KNOTS WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 50 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. PERIODS OF RAIN, HEAVY AT TIMES WITH SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS INCLUDING SEA FLOODING LIKELY.ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS. MODERATE TO HEAVY SWELLS.

FOR THE REST OF NORTHERN COOKS:
FRESH AND GUSTY NORTHEAST TO NORTHWEST WINDS. CLOUDY WITH SOME RAIN AND SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. ROUGH SEAS. MODERATE TO HEAVY SWELLS.

THE NEXT SPECIALL WEATHER BULLETIN FOR THE NORTHERN COOKS WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 111430 UTC OR EARLIER.

PLEASE ACKNOWLEDGE RECEIPT OF THIS BULLETIN.

APCEDI will continue to monitor the progress of this system.

Please go to http://www.afap.org/apcedi/ for the complete interactive alert on Cyclone Rene.
________________________________________
Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator

To donate to AFAP's Disaster Preparedness, Relief and Rehabilitation Programs in Asia and the Pacific, go to http://www.afap.org and click on the "Donate On-Line" icon in the top right-hand corner.

To sign up for AFAP's free APCEDI email service, please go to http://www.afap.org/apcedi/ and register your email address.

APCEDI Alert SP/CI 14P Pat #4-2010: Cyclone Pat causes Widespread Damage on Aitutaki

The RSMC-Nadi Tropical Cyclone Centre, and the Joint Typhoon Warning Centre are issuing guidance on Cyclone Pat, a tropical cyclone moving through the Southern Cook Islands.

This system is currently located 120 nautical miles (225 kms) southwest of Aitutaki and 120 nautical miles (225 kms) northwest of Rarotonga in the Southern Cook Islands. It is moving southwest at 15 knots. Yesterday Cyclone Pat underwent intense strengthening and achieved Category 2 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale as it moved across Aitutaki. However in the last 12 hours, it has weakened significantly with maximum sustained winds at 55 kts making it a strong tropical storm. A weakening trend is now forecast as it moves northwest of Rarotonga.

The Cook Islands have discontinued the Hurrican Warning for Aitutaki (population 2,000) and nearby outliers. However a gale warning remains in force for Aitutaki and Rarotonga (population 15,000).

Cyclone Pat caused widespread moderate to severe destruction across Aitutaki with 90% of homes receiving damage mainly to rooves. The Cook Islands Government has subsequently declared a State of Disaster for Aitutaki. Fortunately the airport, hospital and most major buildings have only sustained minor damage so are functional, and communications and power is already being restored. The authorities had evacuated most all of Aitutaki's residents from low lying areas well before the storm impacted, so only a few minor injuries are being reported. There is widespread damage to trees, crops and other vegetation.

Given the level of damage from Aitutaki and the initial growing size of the storm, authorities raised a State of Emergency in Rarotonga, but that will likely be downgraded, given the cyclone's rapid weakening and current trajectory which will lessen the threat to Rarotonga.

Authorities across the Southern Cooks should remain vigilant, and citizens of Rarotonga should continue to monitor the storm's progress and rush any preparations to completion that the Government is recommending.

Residents of the Northern Cooks, Southern Cooks and French Polynesia should also monitor the progress of a new tropical system that is forming to the north east of Samoa as this could possibly impact on the region later next week. Occasionally in the Central Pacific when conditions are favourable, as they are now, certain area can act like 'conveyor belts' churning out systems on a regular basis. It would seem like the area to the east of Samoa above the Northern Cook Islands is rife for tropical storm production at the moment.

Special Weather Bulletin Number EIGHTEEN for Southern Cooks ON
TROPICAL CYCLONE PAT
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Feb 11/0036 UTC 2010 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.

A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR RAROTONGA, AITUTAKI AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS.
A STRONG WIND WARNING IS IN FORCE FOR THE REST OF THE SOUTHERN COOKS.

TROPICAL CYCLONE PAT CENTRE [970HPA] CAT 2 LOCATED NEAR 20 DECIMAL 0 SOUTH 161 DECIMAL 5 WEST OR ABOUT 120 NAUTICAL MILES SOUTHWEST OF AITUTAKI OR ABOUT 120 NAUTICAL MILES NORTHWEST OF RAROTONGA AT 110000
UTC. CLOSE TO ITS CENTRE THE CYCLONE IS ESTIMATED TO HAVE AVERAGE SUSTAINED WINDS OF 60 KNOTS WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 90 KNOTS DECREASING TO 50 KNOTS WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 90 KNOTS. THE CYCLONE IS WEAKENING RAPIDLY AND MOVING TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST AT 15 KNOTS AND EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE FURTHER AWAY.

ON THIS TRACK, THE CYCLONE CENTRE IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED ABOUT 190 NAUTICAL MILES SOUTHWEST OF AITUTAKI OR ABOUT 150 NAUTICAL MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF RAROTONGA AT 110600 UTC AND ABOUT 260 NAUTICAL MILES SOUTHWEST OF AITUTAKI OR ABOUT 205 NAUTICAL MILES WEST OF RAROTONGA AT 111200 UTC.

FOR RAROTONGA, AITUTAKI, AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS: DAMAGING GALE FORCE WINDS WITH AVERAGE SPEEDS OF 35 KNOTS AND MOMENTARY GUSTS OF 60 KNOTS EASING THIS EVENING. PERIODS OF RAIN, HEAVY AT TIMES AND SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS. DAMAGING HEAVY SWELLS ABATING. FLOODING INCLUDING SEA FLOODING OF
LOW-LYING COASTAL AREAS STILL POSSIBLE.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN COOKS:
OVER PALMERSTON, STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS. CLOUDY PERIODS WITH SOME SHOWERS. ELSEWHERE, STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 45 KNOTS. PERIODS OF RAIN, HEAVY AT TIMES AND SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. VERY ROUGH SEAS. HEAVY SWELLS. SEA FLOODING OF LOW-LYING COASTAL AREAS POSSIBLE.

THE NEXT SPECIAL WEATHER BULLETIN FOR THE SOUTHERN COOKS WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 110330 UTC.

PLEASE ACKNOWLEDGE THE RECEIPT OF THIS BULLETIN.

APCEDI will continue to monitor the progress of this system.

Please go to http://www.afap.org/apcedi/ for the complete interactive alert on Cyclone Pat.
________________________________________
Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator

To donate to AFAP's Disaster Preparedness, Relief and Rehabilitation Programs in Asia and the Pacific, go to http://www.afap.org and click on the "Donate On-Line" icon in the top right-hand corner.

To sign up for AFAP's free APCEDI email service, please go to http://www.afap.org/apcedi/ and register your email address.

APCEDI Alert SP/CI 14P Pat #3-2010: Cyclone Pat bears down on Aitutaki in the Southern Cook Islands

The RSMC-Nadi Tropical Cyclone Centre, and the Joint Typhoon Warning Centre are issuing guidance on Cyclone Pat, a tropical cyclone approaching the island of Aitutaki in the Southern Cook Islands.

This system is currently located 95 nautical miles (176 kms) north-northeast of Aitutaki in the Southern Cook Islands. It is moving south at 7 knots. Maximum sustained winds are 65 kts making it a Category 1 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale. Some additional strengthening may occur throughout today.

The Cook Islands have raised a Storm Warning for Aitutaki (population 2,000) and nearby outliers, as well as a Gale Warning for the capital Rarotonga (population 15,000). A Cyclone Alert remains in effect for all of the Southern Cooks Islands.

The residents of Aitutaki should rush cyclones preparations to a finish as the storm will likely move over or very close to the island. Residents of Rarotonga and other Southern Cook Islands should monitor the storm closely and take any actions that the Government calls for.

Residents and authorities in French Polynesia should also monitor the progress of the storm. Increasingly it is less likely that Cyclone Pat will impact French Polynesia as a westerly turn is predicted moving it away from the area. However, as long as the storm in near the western fringe of the territory, vigilance is warranted

Special Weather Bulletin Number TEN for Southern Cooks ON TROPICAL

CYCLONE PAT ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Feb 10/0031 UTC 2010 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.

A STORM WARNING IS NOW IN FORCE FOR AITUTAKI AND NEARBY SMALLER
ISLANDS.

A GALE WARNING IS NOW IN FORCE FOR RAROTONGA AND PALMERSTON.

A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT REMAINS IN FORCE FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN
COOKS.

TROPICAL CYCLONE PAT CENTRE [975HPA] CAT 2 LOCATED NEAR 17 DECIMAL 4 SOUTH 159 DECIMAL 1 WEST OR ABOUT 95 NAUTICAL MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF AITUTAKI OR ABOUT 235 NAUTICAL MILES EAST OF PALMERSTON OR ABOUT 230 NAUTICAL MILES NORTH OF RAROTONGA AT 100000 UTC. CLOSE TO ITS CENTRE THE CYCLONE IS ESTIMATED TO HAVE AVERAGE SUSTAINED WINDS OF 60 KNOTS WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 90 KNOTS INCREASING TO 65 KNOTS WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 100 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS. THE CYCLONE IS MOVING SOUTH AT 07 KNOTS BUT EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TURN SOUTHWEST.


ON THIS TRACK, THE CYCLONE CENTRE IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED ABOUT 20 NAUTICAL MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF AITUTAKI OR ABOUT 150 NAUTICAL MILES NORTH OF RAROTONGA AT 101200 UTC AND ABOUT 125 NAUTICAL MILES SOUTHWEST OF AITUTAKI OR ABOUT 115 NAUTICAL MILES NORTHWEST OF RAROTONGA AT 110000 UTC.

DESTRUCTIVE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN A FEW HOURS BEFORE THE CYCLONE CENTRE PASSES OVERHEAD OR NEARBY.

FOR AITUTAKI, AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS:
DESTRUCTIVE STORM FORCE WINDS WITH AVERAGE SPEEDS OF 60 KNOTS WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 90 KNOTS. FREQUENT HEAVY RAIN AND SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. VERY HIGH SEAS. DAMAGING HEAVY SWELLS. FLOODING INCLUDING SEA FLOODING OF LOW-LYING COASTAL AREAS.

FOR RAROTONGA AND PALMERSTON:
WINDS INCREASING TO DAMAGING GALE FORCE WITH AVERAGE SPEEDS OF 35 TO 40 KNOTS AND MOMENTARY GUSTS OF 60 TO 70 KNOTS FROM EARLY TOMORROW. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH SEAS. DAMAGING
HEAVY SWELLS. FLOODING INCLUDING SEA FLOODING OF LOW-LYING COASTAL AREAS EXPECTED.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN COOKS:
SOUTHEAST WINDS STRONG 25 TO 30 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 45 KNOTS. OCCASIONAL RAIN, HEAVY AT TIMES AND SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. VERY ROUGH SEAS. HEAVY SWELLS. SEA FLOODING OF LOW-LYING COASTAL AREAS POSSIBLE.

THE NEXT SPECIAL WEATHER BULLETIN FOR THE SOUTHERN COOKS WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 100330 UTC.

PLEASE ACKNOWLEDGE THE RECEIPT OF THIS BULLETIN.

APCEDI will continue to monitor the progress of this system.

Please go to http://www.afap.org/apcedi/ for the complete interactive alert on Cyclone Pat.
________________________________________
Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator

To donate to AFAP's Disaster Preparedness, Relief and Rehabilitation Programs in Asia and the Pacific, go to http://www.afap.org and click on the "Donate On-Line" icon in the top right-hand corner.

To sign up for AFAP's free APCEDI email service, please go to http://www.afap.org/apcedi/ and register your email address.

APCEDI Alert SP/CI 14P Pat #2-2010: Cyclone Pat set to move into the Southern Cook Islands

The RSMC-Nadi Tropical Cyclone Centre, and the Joint Typhoon Warning Centre are issuing guidance on Cyclone Pat, a tropical cyclone moving down into the Southern Cook Islands from the Northern Cook Islands.

This system is currently located 240 nautical miles (450 kms) north of Aitutaki in the Southern Cook Islands. It is moving southeast at 9 knots. Maximum sustained winds are 55 kts making it a strong tropical storm. Cyclone Pat is expected to strengthen into tomorrow into Category 1 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale.

The Cook Islands have raised a Tropical Cyclone Alert for all of the Southern Cooks Islands.

The residents of the Southern Cooks and French Polynesia should monitor this cyclone carefully. Residents in the affected islands of the Southern Cooks should monitor this storm carefully and follow all Government advice. Considerable beach erosion and high seas were experienced in some areas of the Southern Cooks last week with Cyclone Oli, so there could be cumulative effects.

Residents and authorities in French Polynesia should be particularly vigilant. Although most models show Cyclone Pat eventually recurving toward the west away from French Polynesia, until this westerly turn occurs, citizens should not become complacent. Severe damage has already occurred in many western and southern parts of French Polynesia, and not everybody may now have the ability to receive warnings.

Special Weather Bulletin Number FOUR for Southern Cooks ON TROPICAL CYCLONE PAT
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Feb 09/0329 UTC 2010 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT

A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT IS NOW IN FORCE FOR THE SOUTHERN COOKS.

TROPICAL CYCLONE PAT CENTRE [980 HPA] CAT 2 LOCATED NEAR 14 DECIMAL 9 SOUTH 159 DECIMAL 2 WEST OR ABOUT 240 NAUTICAL MILES NORTH OF AITUTAKI OR ABOUT 380 NAUTICAL MILES NORTH OF RAROTONGA OR ABOUT 300 NAUTICAL MILES NORTHEAST OF PALMERSTON AT 090300 UTC. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 10 MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT 55 KNOTS WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 85 KNOTS POSSIBLY INCREASING TO 60 KNOTS WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 90 KNOTS. THE CYCLONE IS CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 09 KNOTS AND EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TURN SOUTHWARDS THEN SOUTHWEST IN THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS.

ON THIS TRACK, THE CYCLONE MAY BRING DAMAGING GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN ISLANDS OF THE SOUTHERN COOKS FROM LATER TOMORROW.

FOR AITUTAKI, AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS: SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASING TO STRONG 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS. WINDS POSSIBLY INCREASING TO 35 KNOTS WITH MOMENTATY GUSTS TO 55 KNOTS FROM TOMORROW MORNING. RAIN BECOMING MORE FREQUENT AND HEAVY FROM TOMORROW WITH SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS, BECOMING VERY ROUGH TO HIGH FROM TOMORROW. DAMAGING HEAVY NORTHERLY SWELLS. FLOODING INCLUDING FLOODING OF LOW-LYING COASTAL AREAS POSSIBLE.

FOR PALMERSTON:
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASING TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND POSSIBLY REACHING DAMAGING GALE FORCE OR STRONGER IN THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. CLOUDY WITH SOME SHOWERS. RAIN BECOMING MORE FREQUENT AND HEAVY WITH SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. ROUGH SEAS BECOMING VERY ROUGH TO HIGH IN THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. MODERATE TO HEAVY SWELLS.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN COOKS:
SOUTHEAST WINDS FRESH AND GUSTY. CLOUDY PERIODS WITH SOME SHOWERS. MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS. MODERATE TO HEAVY SWELLS.

THE NEXT SPECIAL WEATHER BULLETIN FOR THE SOUTHERN COOKS WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 090930 UTC.

PLEASE ACKNOWLEDGE THE RECEIPT OF THIS BULLETIN.

APCEDI will continue to monitor the progress of this system.

Please go to http://www.afap.org/apcedi/ for the complete interactive alert on Cyclone Pat.
________________________________________
Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator

To donate to AFAP's Disaster Preparedness, Relief and Rehabilitation Programs in Asia and the Pacific, go to http://www.afap.org and click on the "Donate On-Line" icon in the top right-hand corner.

To sign up for AFAP's free APCEDI email service, please go to http://www.afap.org/apcedi/ and register your email address.

APCEDI Alert SP/CI 14P Pat #1-2010: Cyclone Pat forms in Northern Cook Islands

The RSMC-Nadi Tropical Cyclone Centre, and the Joint Typhoon Warning Centre are issuing guidance on Cyclone Pat, a tropical cyclone that has formed earlier today over the Northern Cook Islands.

This system is currently located 80 nautical miles (150 kms) south-southwest of Manihiki in the Northern Cook Islands. It is moving southeast at 10 knots. Maximum sustained winds are 40 kts making it a minimal tropical storm. Cyclone Pat is expected to slowly strengthen into tomorrow.

The Cook Islands have raised a Tropical Cyclone Gale Warning for Suwarrow (population 1-2 caretakes), Manihiki (population 470) and Rakahanga (population 130).

All residents of the Northern Cooks, Southern Cooks and French Polynesia should monitor this cyclone carefully. Residents in the affected islands of the Northern Cooks should rush cyclone completion to a finish and follow all Government advice. Considerable beach erosion and high seas were experienced in some areas of the Cooks last week with Cyclone Oli, so there could be cumulative effects.

Residents and authorities in French Polynesia should be particularly vigilant as the storm could pass near to or over the western part of the territory. Severe damage has already occurred in many western and southern parts of the islands, and not everybody may now have the ability to receive warnings. The many residents of isolated islands and atolls who refused to evacuate for Cyclone Oli should think twice before refusing again given the potential impact of the cumulative effects and the fact the responders may be overloaded from the effects of two storms.

Special Weather Bulletin Number TWO for Northern Cooks ON TROPICAL
CYCLONE PAT ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Feb 08/0240 UTC 2010 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.

A TROPICAL CYCLONE GALE WARNING IS NOW IN FORCE FOR SUWARROW,MANIHIKI AND RAKAHANGA. A STRONG WIND WARNING IS NOW IN FORCE FOR THE REST OF THE NORTHERN COOK ISLANDS.

TROPICAL CYCLONE PAT CENTRE [995HPA] ANALYSED NEAR 11 DECIMAL 7 SOUTH 161 DECIMAL 4 WEST OR ABOUT 080 NAUTICAL MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MANIHIKI AT 080000 UTC. MAXIMUM 10 MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE ESTIMATED TO 40 KNOTS WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS UP TO 55 KNOTS. PAT IS CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 10 KNOTS AND EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY TURN SOUTHWARDS LATER.

ON THIS FORECAST TRACK, DAMAGING GALE FORCE WINDS OVER MANIHIKI AND RAKAHANGA BUT EXPECTED TO AFFECT SUWARROW IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

FOR SUWARROW, MANIHIKI AND RAKAHANGA:
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS 35 KNOTS WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 50 KNOTS, INCREASING TO 40 KNOTS WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 55 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS ESPECIALLY OVER SUWARROW. FURTHER PERIODS OF RAIN, HEAVY AT TIMES WITH SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. VERY ROUGH SEAS. MODERATE TO HEAVY SWELLS.

FOR THE REST OF NORTHERN COOK ISLANDS:
NORTHEAST TO NORTHWEST WINDS, 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS.PERIODS OF RAIN, HEAVY AT TIMES WITH SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. ROUGH SEAS. MODERATE SWELLS.

PLEASE ACKNOWLEDGE RECEIPT OF THIS BULLETIN.

THE NEXT SPECIAL WEATHER BULLETIN WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 080830 UTC OR EARLIER.

APCEDI will continue to monitor the progress of this system.

Please go to http://www.afap.org/apcedi/ for the complete interactive alert on Cyclone Pat.
________________________________________
Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator

To donate to AFAP's Disaster Preparedness, Relief and Rehabilitation Programs in Asia and the Pacific, go to http://www.afap.org and click on the "Donate On-Line" icon in the top right-hand corner.

To sign up for AFAP's free APCEDI email service, please go to http://www.afap.org/apcedi/ and register your email address.

APCEDI Alert SP/CI 12P Oli #6-2010: Cyclone Oli Wrap-up Post

The RSMC-Nadi Tropical Cyclone Centre, and the Joint Typhoon Warning Centre and Meteo France have discontinued all guidance for Cyclone Oli, which is now spinning down in the Southern Pacific Ocean away from all populated land areas.

A new cyclonic storm Pat has formed today in the same area of the Northern Cooks Islands where Cyclone Oli formed. APCEDI will cover Cyclone Pat in separate reports.

Cyclone Oli caused extensive and widespread damage to French Polynesia especially to the Leeward Islands (Îles Sous-le-vent) and the Australes Group. French Polynesia’s President, Gaston Tong Sang, declared a state of natural calamity over the weekend. The French army has mobilised to help affected areas.

One person was confirmed dead on the Austral Island of Tubuai. Tubuai (population 2,200) bore the full brunt of the storm, and half of the homes on the island have been severely damaged or destroyed. 600 residents remain in shelters. All phone and power supplies on Tubuai were also knocked out. A ship is on-route to Tubuai with relief supplies.

At least 20 other injuries were reported across the islands.

Widespread moderate to severe damage is being reported across much of the Leeward Islands (Îles Sous-le-vent). Bora Bora (population 5,000) has sustained widespread moderate to severe damage with 9 people injured, 279 homes damaged and 6 homes destroyed. Many evacuations took place across low-lying and vulnerable areas of the Leeward Islands (Îles Sous-le-vent).

At the height of the storm, some 5,000-6,000 persons were evacuated from vulnerable areas.

Widespread minor to localised moderate damage is being reported from the Windward Islands (Îles du Vent) although the shift in course of Cyclone Oli toward the south-southeast spared the islands from the type of more severe damage that has occurred to the west in the Leeward Islands (Îles Sous-le-vent) and south in the Australes Group.

This will be the last report on Cyclone Oli APCEDI will continue to monitor the progress of this system.

Please go to http://www.afap.org/apcedi/ for the complete interactive alert on Cyclone Oli.
________________________________________
Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator

To donate to AFAP's Disaster Preparedness, Relief and Rehabilitation Programs in Asia and the Pacific, go to http://www.afap.org and click on the "Donate On-Line" icon in the top right-hand corner.

To sign up for AFAP's free APCEDI email service, please go to http://www.afap.org/apcedi/ and register your email address.

APCEDI Alert SP/CI 12P Oli #5-2010: Cyclone Oli undergoes rapid intensification to Category 4; Causes widespread damage in French Polynesia

The RSMC-Nadi Tropical Cyclone Centre, and the Joint Typhoon Warning Centre and Meteo France are issuing guidance on Cyclone Oli, a strong tropical cyclone that is moving through French Polynesia.

Cyclone Oli is currently south of Leeward Islands (Îles Sous-le-vent) moving toward the Australes Group. The centre of Cyclone Oli is located approximately 300 kms southwest of Tahiti or 380 km north of Rurutu and is moving southeast at 9 knots. Cyclone Oli underwent very rapid intensification from Category 1- to Category 4 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale overnight, which was not predicted. Maximum sustained winds are now 115 kts making it a Category 4 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale. Cyclone Oli should peak as a Category 4 system, and then begin to gradually weaken as it moves out to sea.

The French High Commission (Le haut-commissaire de la République en Polynésie française) has a raised a Red Alert (L'Alerte Cyclonique Rouge) for the Windward Islands (Îles du Vent) including Tahiti, Moorea, Maiao, Mehetia and l'atoll de Tetiaroa.

The French High Commission (Le haut-commissaire de la République en Polynésie française) has a also raised a Red Alert (L'Alerte Cyclonique Rouge) for the Australes Group. At particular risk are the islands of Rurutu (population 2200), Tubuai (population 2,200) Raivavae (population 900) and Rapa (population 500).

An Orange Alert (L'Alerte Cyclonique Orange) is in place for the Leeward Islands (Îles Sous-le-vent) and the Tuamotu Groups.

Meteo France Cyclonic Alert System:

L'Alerte Cyclonique Rouge: Une vigilance absolues'impose; des phénomènes météorologiques dangereux d'intensité exceptionnelle et catastrophique sont prévus; tenez-vous régulièrement au courant de l'évolution météorologique et conformez vous
scrupuleusementaux conseils ou consignes émis par le Haut-Commissariat.

L'Alerte Cyclonique Orange: Soyez très vigilant; des phénomènes météorologiques dangereux sont prévus ; tenez-vous au courant de l'évolution météorologique et suivez les conseils émis par le Haut-Commissariat. Dans le cas des alertes cycloniques, l'alerte cyclonique orange signifie qu'une dépression tropicale forte ou un cyclone menace le Territoire dans les 24 heures.

Pré-Alerte Jaune: Soyez attentifs, si vous pratiquez des activités sensibles au risque météorologique ; des phénomènes habituels dans la région, mais occasionnellement dangereux (ex: temps modérément pluvieux, averses localement fortes, vent soutenu avec rafales) sont en effet prévus; tenez-vous au courant de l'évolution météorologique. Dans le cas des alertes cycloniques, le jaune correspond à la Pré-alerte.

Widespread moderate to severe damage is being reported across many parts of the Leeward Islands (Îles Sous-le-vent) which bore the brunt of the storm. Bora Bora (population 5,000) has sustained widespread moderate to severe damage with 9 people injured, 279 homes damaged and 6 homes destroyed. Many evacuations took place across low-lying and vulnerable areas of the Leeward Islands (Îles Sous-le-vent).

Two people were injured on Maupiti by flying debris. On Bora Bora, Raiatea, Maupiti, Tahaa and Huahine power supply has been destroyed and many districts are flooded. Many bridges are also destroyed. The army has tried to evacuate several small islands, but often ran up against the refusal of the inhabitants to leave.

Widespread minor to localised moderate damage is being reported from the Windward Islands (Îles du Vent) although the shift in course of Cyclone Oli toward the south-southeast will likely spare the islands from the type of more severe damage that has occurred to the west in the Leeward Islands (Îles Sous-le-vent).

The Australes Group is now under imminent severe threat and the islands of Rurutu (population 2200), Tubuai (population 2,200) Raivavae (population 900), and Rapa (population 500) could expect severe damage if Cyclone Oli stays on its current course.

Citizens and interests across French Polynesia should monitor this storm carefully, rush cyclone preparations to completion and heed all Government warnings. Citizens of the Australes Group must be prticulary vigilant and prepare for conditions associated with a strong Category 3-4 Cyclone.

__________________

Alert from Meteo France

NUMERO 13 DU 04 FEVRIER 2010 A 11H45 HEURES LOCALES

Cyclone tropical OLI

OLI se situe par 19,4 DEGRES SUD ET 151,7 DEGRES OUEST CE JEUDI 04 FEVRIER 2010 A 08H00 LOCALE SOIT ; A 300KM AU SUD-OUEST DE TAHITI, A 350KM AU NORD DE RURUTU, A 500KM AU NORD-OUEST DE TUBUAI ET A 650KM DE RAIVAVAE.

ARCHIPELS OU ILES CONCERNES :

Dans les prochaines 18 heures : Iles du Nord des Australes.

Dans les prochaines 48 heures : RAPA

EVOLUTION PREVUE DU PHENOMENE : Le Cyclone tropical OLI est stable en intensité durant la journée de jeudi puis commence à s'affaiblir en soirée.


PREVISION POUR LES ILES MENACEES :

PREMIER GROUPE D'ILES : Australes du Nord.
OLI se dirige vers le nord des Australes et son centre devrait passer à proximité de Tubuai au cours de la nuit prochaine. Les vents se renforcent pour atteindre 110km/h à 120km/h en rafales dès maintenant à Rimatara et en début de nuit pour Raivavae. A Rurutu, les vents s'intensifient davantage cet après-midi et pourraient dépasser les 150km/h en rafales. A Tubuai, les vents s'intensifient en fin d'après-midi puis se renforcent considérablement en milieu de nuit. Les rafales pourront alors dépasser les 200km/h. Oli peut occasionner de fortes précipitations. La houle de nord-ouest s'amplifie et devrait atteindre les 6m à 8m ce jeudi.


2EME GROUPE D'ILES : RAPA
Poursuivant son déplacement vers le sud-est en se comblant, OLI devrait passer dans le proche sud-ouest de Rapa dans la nuit de vendredi à samedi et s'accompagne essentiellement de passages pluvieux. La houle de nord s'amplifie jusqu'à 5m à 7m vendredi.

Le prochain bulletin sera diffusé le jeudi
04 février 2010
A
Vers 17h45 locale

Renseignements météo: au 36.70.08 ou sur le site : http://www.meteo.pf


Météo-France Direction interrégionale de Polynésie-française
Faaa Aéroport BP 6005 -98702 Faa'a
Tél. (689) 80 33 00 Fax. (689) 80 33 09


AVIS DE PHENOMENE EXCEPTIONNEL :

BULLETIN DE SUIVI N°8
DU JEUDI 4 FEVRIER A 15H00 LOCALES.

Phénomènes météorologiques :
VENTS FORTS, MER FORTE A GROSSE, PLUIES FORTES.

Iles concernées :
Australes, Ouest et Sud Tuamotu

Situation météorologique :
Le cyclone Oli aborde cette nuit le nord Australes. Ses effets se font ressentir jusque sur la moitié ouest Tuamotu ainsi que sur Rapa.

Pour de plus amples détails se référer aux bulletins " avis de phénomène cyclonique ".

Prévisions :
Voir " avis de phénomène cyclonique " pour les Australes.
Sur la moitié ouest des Tuamotu, de forts cumuls de pluies sont attendus avec des vents de secteur nord assez fort à fort avec des rafales sous grains pouvant dépasser les 80Km/h.
La houle et mer du vent combinées donnent des hauteurs de 3/4m.

Evolution à plus de 24 heures:
Voir " avis de phénomène cyclonique " les Australes.
Sur la moitié ouest des Tuamotu, le temps reste perturbé.


PROCHAIN AVIS JEUDI 4 FEVRIER 2010 A 05H45 LOCALES.

_______________________

APCEDI will continue to monitor the progress of this system.

Please go to http://www.afap.org/apcedi/ for the complete interactive alert on Cyclone Oli.
________________________________________
Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator

To donate to AFAP's Disaster Preparedness, Relief and Rehabilitation Programs in Asia and the Pacific, go to http://www.afap.org and click on the "Donate On-Line" icon in the top right-hand corner.

To sign up for AFAP's free APCEDI email service, please go to http://www.afap.org/apcedi/ and register your email address.

APCEDI Alert SP/CI 12P Oli #4-2010: Cyclone Oli Bears Down on French Polynesia; Red Alert Raised for Leeward Islands (Îles Sous-le-vent)

The RSMC-Nadi Tropical Cyclone Centre, and the Joint Typhoon Warning Centre and Meteo France are issuing guidance on Cyclone Oli, tropical cyclone that is moving into French Polynesia.

Cyclone Oli is currently moving into the area of the Leeward Islands (Îles Sous-le-vent)of French Polynesia. The centre of Cyclone Oli is located approximately 180 kms west of Maupiti or 480 km northwest of Tahiti and is moving east-southeast at 6 knots. Maximum sustained winds are 65 kts making it a Category 1 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale. Cyclone Oli should continue to strengthen into a strong Category 1 system,on the Saffir-Simpson Scale.

The French High Commission (Le haut-commissaire de la République en Polynésie française) has raised a Red Alert (L'Alerte Cyclonique Rouge) for the Leeward Islands (Îles Sous-le-vent) including Raiatea, Tahaa, Bora Bora, Huahine, Maupiti, Tupai, Scilly, Mopelia, Bellingshaussen and all outliers.

An Orange Alert (L'Alerte Cyclonique Orange) is in place for the Windward Islands (Îles du Vent) and the Australes et Tuamotu Groups.

Meteo France Cyclonic Alert System:

L'Alerte Cyclonique Rouge: Une vigilance absolues'impose; des phénomènes météorologiques dangereux d'intensité exceptionnelle et catastrophique sont prévus; tenez-vous régulièrement au courant de l'évolution météorologique et conformez vous
scrupuleusementaux conseils ou consignes émis par le Haut-Commissariat.

L'Alerte Cyclonique Orange: Soyez très vigilant; des phénomènes météorologiques dangereux sont prévus ; tenez-vous au courant de l'évolution météorologique et suivez les conseils émis par le Haut-Commissariat. Dans le cas des alertes cycloniques, l'alerte cyclonique orange signifie qu'une dépression tropicale forte ou un cyclone menace le Territoire dans les 24 heures.

Pré-Alerte Jaune: Soyez attentifs, si vous pratiquez des activités sensibles au risque météorologique ; des phénomènes habituels dans la région, mais occasionnellement dangereux (ex: temps modérément pluvieux, averses localement fortes, vent soutenu avec rafales) sont en effet prévus; tenez-vous au courant de l'évolution météorologique. Dans le cas des alertes cycloniques, le jaune correspond à la Pré-alerte.

Yesterday the army tried to evacuate the isolated atolls of Scilly (Manuae) and Mopelia (Maupihaa), likely to be the first affected by Cyclone Oli. However, the 35 inhabitants of Scilly refused to go aboard the helicopter. In Mopelia, only 5 inhabitants out of 8 agreed to be transferred to Bora Bora.

Citizens and interests across French Polynesia should monitor this storm carefully, rush cyclone preparations to completion and heed all Government warnings.

__________________

Alert from Meteo France

NUMERO
9 DU 03 FEVRIER 2010 A 12H30 HEURES LOCALES

Cyclone tropical OLI

A 10h30 ce matin heure de Tahiti, OLI se situe par 16,5 DEGRES SUD ET 153,9 DEGRES OUEST DANS L'OUEST A 180KM DE MAUPITI ET A 480KM DE TAHITI.

ARCHIPELS OU ILES CONCERNES :

Dans les prochaines 18 heures : les îles de la Société.

Dans les prochaines 48 heures : Iles du Nord des Australes.

EVOLUTION PREVUE DU PHENOMENE : La dépression tropicale forte OLI est devenue Cyclone tropical OLI en fin de matinée et s'approche des îles du vent. Elle s'intensifie.

PREVISION POUR LES ILES MENACEES :

PREMIER GROUPE D'ILES : les îles sous le vent.
De Maupiti à Bora-Bora jusqu'à Tahaa, Raiatea et Huahine, les vents se renforcent progressivement et vont atteindre 130km/h en pointes. Le Cyclone tropical OLI devrait passer au plus prés des îles sous le vent ce soir à environ 120km de Maupiti. A son passage Oli occasionne de fortes précipitations et génère une mer grosse avec des hauteurs de vague dépassant les 6m.

2EME GROUPE D'ILES : Iles du vent et Australes du Nord.
OLI passerait au plus près des îles du vent en fin de nuit de mercredi à jeudi, à environ 160km de Maiao et 270km de Tahiti. Les vents devraient se renforcer jusqu'à 130km/h de Maiao à Tahiti.
La houle de nord-ouest de 4m s'amplifie et devrait dépasser les 6m jeudi. Les Australes pourraient être concernées à partir de jeudi soir.

Le prochain bulletin sera diffusé le mercredi
03 février 2010 A Vers 17h45 locale

Renseignements météo: au 36.70.08 ou sur le site : http://www.meteo.pf

Météo-France Direction interrégionale de Polynésie-française
Faaa Aéroport BP 6005 -98702 Faa'a
Tél. (689) 80 33 00 Fax. (689) 80 33 09


AVIS DE PHENOMENE EXCEPTIONNEL :

BULLETIN DE SUIVI N°5
DU MERCREDI 3 FEVRIER A 05H45 LOCALES.

Phénomènes météorologiques :
VENTS FORTS, FORTES PLUIES ET MER FORTE.

Iles concernées :
Société, Nord-ouest, Centre et Sud Tuamotu

Situation météorologique :
La dépression tropicale forte OLI se dirige vers les Iles sous le vent.

Prévisions :
Pour les Iles sous le vent :
Oli devrait passer ce matin à proximité de Mopelia et Scilly et à une cinquantaine de kilomètres de Belinghausen. Les vents maximums attendus sont de 150km/h. De Bora-Bora à Tahaa, Raiatea et Huahine, les vents se renforcent progressivement ce matin pour atteindre jusqu'à 110km/h en pointes. Vers Maupiti ils pourraient dépasser 130km/h.
OLI devrait passer au plus près des îles sous le vent en soirée de mercredi (à environ 120km de Maupiti). A son passage Oli occasionne de fortes précipitations et génère une mer grosse avec des hauteurs dépassant les 6m.

Pour les Iles du vent :
le temps est perturbé avec des pluies de forte intensité et des vents qui vont se renforcer jusqu'à 110km/h en pointes. La houle devrait dépasser les 5m.

Pour le Nord-ouest, le Centre et Sud Tuamotu :
De forts cumuls de précipitations sont attendus avec des rafales de vent pouvant atteindre jusqu'à 110km/h sous un grain orageux. La mer devient forte voire très forte par endroit.

Evolution à plus de 24 heures:
OLI passerait au plus près, dans l'ouest des îles du vent, jeudi en matinée. A environ 160km de Maiao et 270km de Tahiti. Les vents devraient se renforcer la nuit prochaine pour atteindre vers Maiao jusqu'à 110km/h en pointe et jusqu'à 90km/h à Tahiti et Moorea. La houle de nord-ouest s'amplifie dans la journée de mercredi et devrait dépasser les 5m. Les Australes pourraient être concernées à partir de jeudi soir.

PROCHAIN AVIS MERCREDI 3 FEVRIER 2010 A 15H00 LOCALES.=


Météo-France est certifié ISO 9001 :2000

_______________________

APCEDI will continue to monitor the progress of this system.

Please go to http://www.afap.org/apcedi/ for the complete interactive alert on Cyclone Oli.
________________________________________
Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator

To donate to AFAP's Disaster Preparedness, Relief and Rehabilitation Programs in Asia and the Pacific, go to http://www.afap.org and click on the "Donate On-Line" icon in the top right-hand corner.

To sign up for AFAP's free APCEDI email service, please go to http://www.afap.org/apcedi/ and register your email address.

APCEDI Alert SP/CI 12P Oli #3-2010: Cyclone Oli Moving into western parts of French Polynesia

The RSMC-Nadi Tropical Cyclone Centre, and the Joint Typhoon Warning Centre and Meteo France are issuing guidance on Cyclone Oli, a tropical cyclone that is moving into the western part of French Polynesia.

Cyclone Oli is currently moving into the far northwest of French Polynesia. It is moving east-southeast at 8 knots. Maximum sustained winds are 55 kts making it a moderate to strong tropical storm. It should strengthen into tomorrow and will likely approach Category 1 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale.

West Polynesia (Ouest Polynésie), the Society Islands (îles de la Société), the Australes Group and outliers of Mopelia, Scilly, and Bellinghausen have been placed on a strong wind and heavy rain warning. As Cyclone Oli approached, this will likely be raised to Yellow and Orange Cyclone alerts as detailed below:

L'Alerte Cyclonique Orange: Soyez très vigilant; des phénomènes météorologiques dangereux sont prévus ; tenez-vous au courant de l'évolution météorologique et suivez les conseils émis par le Haut-Commissariat. Dans le cas des alertes cycloniques, l'alerte cyclonique orange signifie qu'une dépression tropicale forte ou un cyclone menace le Territoire dans les 24 heures.

Pré-Alerte Jaune: Soyez attentifs, si vous pratiquez des activités sensibles au risque météorologique ; des phénomènes habituels dans la région, mais occasionnellement dangereux (ex: temps modérément pluvieux, averses localement fortes, vent soutenu avec rafales) sont en effet prévus; tenez-vous au courant de l'évolution météorologique. Dans le cas des alertes cycloniques, le jaune correspond à la Pré-alerte.

All Tropical Cyclone Alerts have been lowered for the Southern Cooks.

Citizens and interests across French Polynesia should monitor this storm carefully and heed all Government warnings.

__________________

Alert from Meteo France

NUMERO 6 DU
02 FEVRIER 2010 A 16H45 HEURES LOCALES

Dépression tropicale forte OLI

ARCHIPELS OU ILES CONCERNES :

Dans les prochaines 18 heures : Mopelia Scilly Bellinghausen

Dans les prochaines 48 heures : Ouest Polynésie, les îles de la Société et les Australes

Evolution prévue: la dépression tropicale forte Oli s'approche des îles de la Société. Elle s'intensifie lentement.

Prévisions pour les iles menacées : ILES SOUS LE VENT
La trajectoire prévue de la dépression tropicale OLI la situe vers 15.9 degrés sud et 155.7 degrés ouest mardi 02/02/2010 en milieu de nuit. Elle génère une mer grosse avec une hauteur jusqu'à 4m mètres cette nuit s'amplifiant 5/6m mercredi.

2ème groupe d'îles : ILES DU VENT et AUSTRALES
Oli passerait au plus près de Tahiti (250 km) dans la journée de Jeudi.

Le prochain bulletin sera diffusé le
02 février 2010 A 23h45 locale au plus tard

Renseignements météo: au 36.70.08 ou sur le site : http://www.meteo.pf

Météo-France Direction interrégionale de Polynésie-française
Faaa Aéroport BP 6005 -98702 Faa'a
Tél. (689) 80 33 00 Fax. (689) 80 33 09


AVIS DE PHENOMENE EXCEPTIONNEL :

BULLETIN DE SUIVI N°4
DU MARDI 2 FEVRIER A 16H15 LOCALES.

Phénomènes météorologiques : VENTS FORTS ET FORTES PLUIES.

Iles concernées :
Ouest puis Sud Tuamotu et gagnant les Australes demain.

Situation météorologique :
Dépression tropicale faible, non baptisé, centrée entre Anaa et Hereheretue.

Prévisions :
Des grains à caractère orageux sont attendus de Fakarava à Makemo et Anaa, gagnant par la suite Hereheretue. Les vents attendus atteignent 50/60km/h en moyenne et dépassent les 90 voire 100km/h en rafales, donnant une mer forte sur ces régions.

Evolution à plus de 24 heures:
La dépression tropicale devrait descendre vers le sud en direction de Rapa à environ 20km/h. Les rafales s'atténuent autour des 80km/h.

PROCHAIN AVIS MERCREDI 3 FEVRIER 2010 A 05H45 LOCALES.=

_______________________

APCEDI will continue to monitor the progress of this system.

Please go to http://www.afap.org/apcedi/ for the complete interactive alert on Cyclone Oli.
________________________________________
Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator

To donate to AFAP's Disaster Preparedness, Relief and Rehabilitation Programs in Asia and the Pacific, go to http://www.afap.org and click on the "Donate On-Line" icon in the top right-hand corner.

To sign up for AFAP's free APCEDI email service, please go to http://www.afap.org/apcedi/ and register your email address.

APCEDI Alert SP/CI 12P Oli #2-2010: Cyclone Oli Moving on Eastern Fringes of Cook Islands

The RSMC-Nadi Tropical Cyclone Centre, and the Joint Typhoon Warning Centre and Meteo France are issuing guidance on Cyclone Oli, a tropical cyclone that is moving along the eastern fringes of the Cook Islands.

This system is currently located 235 nautical miles (435 kms) north of Aitutaki in the Southern Cook Islands. It is moving southeast at 14 knots. Maximum sustained winds are 50 kts making it a moderate tropical storm. It should strengthen into tomorrow and may approach Category 1 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale.

A Tropical Cyclone Alert has been raised for the Southern Cooks and the Western Islands of French Polynesia.

Citizens and interests in the Southern Cook Islands and French Polynesia should monitor this storm carefully and heed all Government warnings.


Alert from The RSMC-Nadi Tropical Cyclone Centre

Special Weather Bulletin Number THREE for Southern Cooks ON TROPICAL
CYCLONE OLI
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Feb 02/0416 UTC 2010 UTC.
TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT

A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT REMAINS IN FORCE FOR SOUTHERN COOK ISLANDS.

TROPICAL CYCLONE OLI CENTRE [985HPA] WAS RE-LOCATED NEAR 14 DECIMAL 2 SOUTH 161 DECIMAL 0 WEST OR ABOUT 285 NAUTICAL MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF AITUTAKI OR ABOUT 425 NAUTICAL MILES NORTH OF RAROTONGA AT 020400 UTC. THE CYCLONE IS MOVING GENERALLY TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST AT 14 KNOTS AND INTENSIFYING. CLOSE TO ITS CENTRE, THE CYCLONE IS ESTIMATED TO HAVE AVERAGE SUSTAINED WINDS OF 50 KNOTS WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 80 KNOTS.

ON THIS TRACK, THE CYCLONE CENTRE IS EXPECTED TO LIE ABOUT 235 NAUTICAL MILES NORTH OF AITUTAKI OR ABOUT 375 NAUTICAL MILES NORTH OF RAROTONGA AT 021600 UTC AND ABOUT 235 NAUTICAL MILES NORTH OF AITUTAKI OR ABOUT 375 NAUTICAL MILES NORTH OF RAROTONGA AT 030400 UTC.

ON THIS FORECAST TRACK, OLI MAY BRING DAMAGING GALE FORCE WINDS ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN ISLANDS OF SOUTHERN COOKS IN THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS.

FOR AITUTAKI, MAUKE AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS:
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASING TO 20 TO 30 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 KNOTS. RAIN BECOMING MORE FREQUENT, HEAVY AT TIMES AND SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. SEAS BECOMING VERY ROUGH. HEAVY NORTHWEST SWELLS. FLOODING OF LOW-LYING COASTAL AREAS EXPECTED.

FOR THE REMAINING ISLANDS OF SOUTHERN COOKS:
SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASING TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS. CLOUDY WITH SOME RAIN. ROUGH SEAS. MODERATE TO HEAVY SWELLS. FLOODING OF LOW-LYING COASTAL AREAS POSSIBLE.

PLEASE ACKNOWLEDGE RECEIPT OF THIS MESSAGE.

THE NEXT SPECIAL WEATHER BULLETIN FOR SOUTHERN COOKS WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 021030 UTC OR EARLIER.

_____________________________________________

Alert from Meteo France

NUMERO 2
DU 01 FEVRIER 2010 A 16H30 HEURES LOCALES

Dépression tropicale modérée OLI

ARCHIPELS OU ILES CONCERNES :

Dans les prochaines 18 heures : Néant

Dans les prochaines 48 heures : Ouest Polynésie
Evolution prévue: La dépression tropicale modérée OLI s'intensifie progressivement en s'approchant des îles de la Société.

PREVISIONS POUR LES ILES MENACEES

1er groupe d'îles : les Iles Sous Le Vent
La trajectoire de la dépression tropicale modérée Oli la situerait vers 15.2 sud et 158.0 Ouest le mardi 02 février en matinée. Elle pourrait devenir Cyclone tropical en cours de la journée du 02 février 2010. Elle génère une amplification de la houle de Nord-ouest jusqu'à 4m mardi soir et 5/6m mercredi soir. Les vents commencent à se renforcer mercredi matin vers Bellinghausen et Mopelia en soirée sur le reste des îles sous le vent.

2ème groupe d'îles : Néant


Le prochain bulletin sera diffusé le
01 février 2010
A
23h45 locale au plus tard

Renseignements météo: au 36.70.08 ou sur le site : http://www.meteo.pf


BULLETIN DE SUIVI N°2
DU LUNDI 1ER FEVRIER A 15H00 LOCALES.

Phénomènes météorologiques : VENTS FORTS.

Iles concernées :
Nord-ouest Tuamotu.

Situation météorologique :
Un minimum dépressionnaire situé sur le Nord-ouest Tuamotu génère un temps perturbé sur la région.

Prévisions :
Des grains à caractère orageux sont attendus de Ahe-Manihi-Takaroa jusqu'à Makemo avec des vents moyens de 60km/h et des rafales pouvant dépasser les 110km/h.

Evolution à plus de 24 heures:
Mardi, le temps reste perturbé sur la région et les vents moyens restent autour de 50/60km/h. Les rafales s'atténuent au alentours de 80km/h.

PROCHAIN AVIS MARDI 02 FEVRIER 2010 A 05H45 LOCALES.=

_______________________

APCEDI will continue to monitor the progress of this system.

Please go to http://www.afap.org/apcedi/ for the complete interactive alert on Cyclone Oli.
________________________________________
Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator

To donate to AFAP's Disaster Preparedness, Relief and Rehabilitation Programs in Asia and the Pacific, go to http://www.afap.org and click on the "Donate On-Line" icon in the top right-hand corner.

To sign up for AFAP's free APCEDI email service, please go to http://www.afap.org/apcedi/ and register your email address.

APCEDI Alert SP/CI 12P Oli #1-2010: Cyclone Oli forms in Northern Cook Islands

The RSMC-Nadi Tropical Cyclone Centre, and the Joint Typhoon Warning Centre are issuing guidance on Cyclone Oli, a tropical cyclone that has formed over the Northern Cook Islands.

This system is currently located 40 nautical miles (75 kms) northwest of Suwarrow in the Northern Cook Islands. It is moving east-southeast at 15 knots. Maximum sustained winds are 50 kts making it a moderate tropical storm. It should strengthen into tomorrow and may approach Category 1 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale.

A Tropical Cyclone Warning has been raised for Suwarrow Atoll in the Northern Cooks and and a Strong Wind Warning is in effect for the rest of the Northern Cook Islands. Suwarrow Atoll is a largely uninhabited National Park, Marine and Bird Reserve.

Citizens and interests in the Northern Cook Islands and French Polynesia should monitor this storm carefully and heed all Government warnings.

Special Weather Bulletin Number FOUR for Northern Cooks ON TROPICAL CYCLONE OLI ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Feb 01/1331 UTC 2010 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.

A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR SUWARROW.
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR THE REST OF THE NORTHERN COOKS.

TROPICAL CYCLONE OLI 07F CENTRE [990HPA] CAT 1 WAS LOCATED NEAR 12 DECIMAL 7 SOUTH 163 DECIMAL 5 WEST OR ABOUT 40 NAUTICAL MILES NORTHWEST OF SUWARROW OR ABOUT 140 NAUTICAL MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF NASSAU AT 011200 UTC. THE CYCLONE IS MOVING EAST SOUTHEAST AT 15 KNOTS AND INTENSIFYING.

CLOSE TO ITS CENTRE, THE CYCLONE IS ESTIMATED TO HAVE AVERAGE WINDS UP TO ABOUT 40 KNOTS WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS UP TO 60 KNOTS.

DESTRUCTIVE WINDS WILL BEGIN A FEW HOURS BEFORE THE CYCLONE CENTREPASSES CLOSE BY:

FOR SUWARROW:
DAMAGING GALE FORCE NORTHWEST WINDS WITH AVERAGE SPEEDS OF 40 KNOTS WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. FURTHER PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WITH SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS. DAMAGING HEAVY SWELLS. FLOODING INCLUDING SEA FLOODING OF LOW-LYING COASTAL AREAS.

FOR THE REST OF THE NORTHERN COOKS:
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS 25 TO 30 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 45 KNOTS. FURTHER PERIODS OF RAIN HEAVY AT TIMES WITH SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. VERY ROUGH SEAS. MODERATE TO HEAVY SWELLS.

PLEASE ACKNOWLEDGE RECEIPT OF THIS BULLETIN.

THE NEXT SPECIAL WEATHER BULLETIN FOR THE NORTHERN COOKS WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 011600 UTC OR EARLIER.

APCEDI will continue to monitor the progress of this system.

Please go to http://www.afap.org/apcedi/ for the complete interactive alert on Cyclone Oli.
________________________________________
Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator

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