APCEDI ALERT 06F #2, 2005: Tropical Depression 06F Passes Across Fiji Toward Tonga

Tropical Depression 06F, has picked up speed as it has traversed across Fiji overnight. It is now located about 111 kms south of Ogea Island, Fiji. The Fiji Meteorological Service maintains a strong wind warning for Vanua Levu, Taveuni and Lau
Group, but has dropped the warning for all other parts of Fiji. They have also been dropped for Wallis and Futuna. Strong Wind Warnings have now been raised for all of Tonga. Rough seas, gales and heavy rainfalls with possible localised flooding of low-lying areas are being forecast for Vanua Levu, Taveuni and Lau Group in Fiji and for all groups in Tonga. However, formation into a cyclone at this time is not likely.

FROM FIJI METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE
http://www.met.gov.fj/

Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W issued from RSMC NADI Jan 30/2329 UTC 2005 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06F [993HPA] WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.9S 178.7W AT 302100UTC MOVING SOUTHEAST 15 KNOTS. POSITION POOR BASED ON GOES9/VIS, MICROWAVE DATA AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. SST IS AROUND 29-30C.

CONVECTIVE ORGANISATION REMAINS DETACHED FROM CENTRE AND IN ACTIVE ABOUT THE EAST AND NORTHERN QUADRANTS. GOOD CURVATURE REMAINS EVIDENT IN THE CLOUD STRUCTURE HOWEVER IT REMAINS ASYMMETRIC. WESTERLY SHEAR APPEARS TO HAVE PREVENTED SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT. THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED JUST TO THE SOUTH OF A 250 HPA RIDGE AND JUST EAST OF A TROUGH. OUTFLOW REMAINS GOOD IN THE EASTERN AND NORTHERN QUADRANTS. MOST GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO MOVE 06F SOUTHEASTWARDS WITHOUT SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT.

POTENTIAL FOR 06F TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS LOW TO MODERATE.

NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCES ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN THE AREA.

A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR VANUA LEVU, TAVEUNI AND LAU GROUP.

SITUATION:
A tropical depression was located about 556 kilometres to the southeast of Nadi or 111 kilometres to the south of Ogea at 2 p.m this afternoon. The depression is moving further southeastwards away from the group. Associated rain and strong winds affect most parts of the country.

Forecast to midnight tomorrow for the Fiji group: Frequent rain, heavy at times with squally thunderstorms about Vanua Levu, Taveuni and Lau group. Flooding of low lying areas likely in heavy falls. Elsewhere, cloudy periods with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. Northwest to northeast winds 45 to 55 kilometres per hour with gusts to 75 kilometres per hour in squalls over Vanua Levu, Taveuni and Lau group. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh south to southwest winds. Rough to very rough seas.

TONGA
Weather Bulletin issued from NWFC Nadi Jan 310118 UTC.
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR ALL OF TONGA.

Situation:
A tropical depression located this morning about 300 miles [ 560 km ] west of Vavau is moving southeast at 15 knots. Associated rain affect the kingdom.

Forecast to midnight tomorrow for Tonga: Northwest winds 20 to 25 knots gusting to 35 knots in squalls about the Niuas. Elsewhere, northerly winds up to 30 knots and gusting to 45 knots in squalls. Periods of rain, heavy at times and isolated squally thunderstorms.


APCEDI will continue to monitor the progress of this tropical system.

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator
http://www.afap.org/apcedi/

APCEDI ALERT 06F #1, 2005: Tropical Depression Forms North of Fiji

Tropical Depression 06F, located about 200 kms north of Nadi Fiji has recently formed and continues to deepen. The Fiji Meteorological Service has issued a strong wind warning for all Fiji waters. Rough seas and heavy rainfalls with possible flooding are being forecast for Northern parts of Fiji including Rotuma and for the French Territory of Wallis and Futuna. However, formation into a cyclone at this time is not likely.

FROM FIJI METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE
http://www.met.gov.fj/

Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W issued from RSMC NADI Jan 30/0946 UTC 2005 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06F [997HPA] WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.1S 178.4E AT 300600UTC MOVING EAST 05 KNOTS. POSITION POOR BASED ON GOES9/IR, MICROWAVE DATA AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. SST IS AROUND 29-30C.

CONVECTIVE ORGANISATION HAS IMPROVED IN THE LAST 6 HOURS WITH GOOD CURVATURE EVIDENT IN THE CLOUD STRUCTURE HOWEVER IT REMAINS ASYMMETRIC. WESTERLY SHEAR APPEARS TO HAVE PREVENTED SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER, AS THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED JUST TO THE SOUTH OF A 250 HPA OUTFLOW SOME FURTHER DEVELOPMENT IS STILL POSSIBLE. GLOBALMODELS CONTINUE TO MOVE 06F SLOWLY EASTWARDS AND LATER SOUTHWARDS WITH SOME MODELS INDICATING INTENSIFICATION.

POTENTIAL FOR 06F TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS LOW TO MODERATE.

NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCES ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN THE AREA.

SITUATION:
A tropical depression located this afternoon about 220 kilometres to the north of Nadi is moving slowly eastwards towards the north of the group. Associated cloud and rain affect the country.

Forecast to midnight MONDAY for the Fiji group: Rain, heavy at times with isolated squally thunderstorms, more frequent in northern parts of the group. Flooding of low lying areas likely in heavy falls. Light to moderate north to northeast winds gradually increasing during tomorrow to 45 kilometres per hour with gusts to 55 kilometres per hour in squalls. Winds turning fresh to strong north to northwest late on Monday. Seas becoming rough tomorrow.

FROM JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER
http://www.npmoc.navy.mil/jtwc.html

2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION LOCATED NEAR 16.2S9 177.5E0, APPROXIMATELY 130 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS PERSISTED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND QUIKSCAT MICROWAVE IMAGERY REVEALS DEEP CONVECTION BEGINNING TO CONSOLIDATE OVER A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER ENHANCED BY STRONG GRADIENT WINDS TO THE NORTH. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES MODERATE DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE AREA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 998.3 MB BASED ON A 300340Z0 SURFACE OBSERVATION TAKEN AT THE YASAWA ISLAND GROUP. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.

APCEDI will continue to monitor the progress of this tropical system.

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator
http://www.afap.org/apcedi/

APCEDI ALERT BOBW Cyclone 02B #10, 2005: Cyclone 02B Dissipating

Cyclone 02B has continued to dissipate today. The Sri Lanka Department of Meteorology is monitoring the remnants of the storm. These remnants still have some potential to bring localised heavy rains, gusty winds, isolated coastal and flash flooding and rough seas to places close to the main convection areas. Thus people should remain alert.

The system continues to bring intermittent showers to Batticaloa, Ampara and Hambantota Districts, and these could become more widespread and heavy in the next 24 hours over the East, Uva and South Provinces. All interests in Sri Lanka especially from Jaffna to Galle should continue to monitor this system for the next 24-36 hours at which point it should be dissipated.

This will be the last APCEDI alert on this system unless it unexpectedly regenerates.

SRI LANKA DEPARTMENT OF METEOROLOGY
http://www.meteo.slt.lk/wxfc.html

18 January 2005
Showers will continue in the Eastern and Uva provinces and in the Hambantota, Matale and Pollonaruwa districts. Fairly heavy falls are also expected at a few places. Sea areas off the coast extending from Trincomalee to Hambantota via Pottuvil will be fairly rough and fairly windy at times.

While APCEDI does not normally monitor cyclones in the Bay of Bengal, given AFAP's tsunami relief effort and that of many agencies in the region, APCEDI will continue to bring reports from this region, as warranted, for the next 6 months.

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator
http://www.afap.org/apcedi/

To donate to AFAP's Sri Lanka Appeal, go to http://www.afap.org

APCEDI ALERT BOBW Cyclone 02B #9, 2005: Cyclone 02B Weakens into Tropical Depression

Cyclone 02B has weakened into a tropical depression today. The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) and the Indian Departments of Meteorology have forecast the storm to dissipate east of Sri Lanka by tomorrow, and both agencies have thus issued final warnings on this system. The Sri Lanka Department of Meteorology will monitor the depression and continue to give reports as the remnants of the cyclone continue to pass near the Sri Lankan shore. Even though Cyclone 02B has weakened into a tropical depression, the remnants of the system still have some potential to bring localised heavy rains, gusty winds, isolated coastal and flash flooding and rough seas to places close to the main convection areas. Thus people should remain alert.

Currently, the main areas of convection of this system lie well off the Sri Lanka coast although associated convection continues to bring intermittent showers to Batticaloa, Ampara and Hambantota Districts, and these could become more widespread and heavy in the next 24 hours over the East, Uva and South Provinces depending on the depression's track. The intensity of rain and wind for Sri Lanka will depend on how close the depression comes toward the east coast before turning northeast toward the Andaman Islands and Burma.

All interests in Sri Lanka especially from Jaffna to Galle and around the Bay of Bengal should monitor the development of this tropical system. This situation should still be closely monitored by all Government and aid workers. All Government and aid workers, especially along the east and southern coast, should monitor forecasts and be prepared to help organise preparation activities for communities in which they are working should the situation warrant.

All interests in the Andaman Islands of India from Little Andaman northward and in the Coco Islands and Irrawaddy Delta of Burma should pay close attention to this depression and associated convection.

FROM JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER
http://www.npmoc.navy.mil/jtwc.html

170300Z1 POSITION NEAR 4.7N1 85.1E4. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02B, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 345 NM EAST- SOUTHEAST OF COLUMBO, SRI LANKA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 162330Z5 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25 AND 30 KNOTS. ANIMATED IMAGERY INDICATES A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION. TC 02B IS FORECAST REMAIN IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT AND SLOWLY TRACK EQUATORWARD FOR THE NEXT 06 TO 12 HOURS BEFORE SHIFTING TO A POLEWARD TRACK FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. TC 02B IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 170000Z8 IS 08 FEET. REFER TO WWIO30 PHNC FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.//


INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT
http://www.imd.ernet.in/section/nhac/dynamic/severe.htm

CYCLONE WARNING

TROPICAL STORM ADVISORY NO. SIXTEEN BASED ON 0000 UTC CHARTS OF 17 JANUARY 2005. THE CYCLONIC STORM OVER CENTRAL PARTS OF THE SOUTH BAY OF BENGAL AND ADJOINING NORTH INDIAN OCEAN, REMAINED PRACTICALLY STATIONARY AND WEAKENED INTO A DEEP DEPRESSION AND LAY CENTRED AT 170000 UTC NEAR LATITUDE 5.5 DEG. NORTH LONGITUDE 86.0 DEG. EAST. CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDED MODERATE TO INTENSE CONVECTION AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE. CURRENT INTENSITY T 2.0 REPEAT T 2.0 ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 HPA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WIND 30 KT GUSTING TO 40 KT AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE. FORECAST : THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO WEAKEN GRADUALLY AND MOVE SLOWLY IN A WEST-NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION. THIS IS THE LAST BULLETIN FOR THIS SYSTEM.


SRI LANKA DEPARTMENT OF METEOROLOGY
http://www.meteo.slt.lk/wxfc.html

17 January 2005
The depression has further weakened. Showers will occur at several places in the Eastern and Uva provinces and in the Hambantota District. Showers and thunderstorms will be experienced in the sea areas off the coast extending from Trincomalee to Hambantota via Pottuvil. Winds will be Northerly to Northeasterly and the speed will be 15-25 kph. The speed will occasionally rise to 30-40 kph in the sea areas off the coast extending from Trincomalee to Hambantota via Pottuvil. Seas off the coast extending from Trincomalee to Hambantota via Pottuvil will be fairly rough.

APCEDI will continue to monitor the progress of this tropical system. While APCEDI does not normally monitor cyclones in the Bay of Bengal, given AFAP's tsunami relief effort and that of many agencies in the region, APCEDI will continue to bring reports from this region, as warranted, for the next 6 months.

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator
http://www.afap.org/apcedi/

To donate to AFAP's Sri Lanka Appeal, go to http://www.afap.org

APCEDI ALERT BOBW Cyclone 02B #8, 2005: Cyclone 02B Slowly moves toward Sri Lanka; Watch raised for Andaman Islands

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) and the Sri Lanka and Indian Departments of Meteorology continue to issue alerts for Cyclone 02B, located 500 km east-southeast of Pottuvil. Cyclone 02B is currently moving northwest at 6 kt with a general forecast trend slowly to the north and then northeast. The cyclone has weakened overnight, and the JTWC is now forecasting that the system will dissipate east of Sri Lanka in the next 24-48 hours.

The main areas of convection of this system lie well off the Sri Lanka coast although associated convection continues to bring intermittent showers to Batticaloa, Ampara and Hambantota Districts, and these could become more widespread and heavy in the next 24 hours over the East, Uva, North Northcentral and South Provinces depending on the system's track. The intensity of rain and wind for Sri Lanka will depend on how close the cyclone comes toward the east coast before turning northeast toward the Andaman Islands and Burma.

All interests in Sri Lanka especially from Jaffna to Galle and around the Bay of Bengal should monitor the development of this tropical system. This is an increasingly serious situation that must be closely monitored by all Government and aid workers. All Government and aid workers, especially along the east and southern coast, should be prepared to help organise cyclone preparation activities for communities in which they are working should the situation warrant.

Given the northeastern turn that is forecast in the next 2-3 days, all interests in the Andaman Islands of India from Little Andaman northward should pay close attention to this storm. All interests in the Coco Islands and Irrawaddy Delta of Burma should also be on alert.

FROM JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER
http://www.npmoc.navy.mil/jtwc.html

162100Z0 POSITION NEAR 5.2N7 85.6E9. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02B, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 360 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF COLUMBO, SRI LANKA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 161730Z8 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25 AND 30 KNOTS. ANIMATED IMAGERY INDICATES A WEAK LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER LOCATED TO THE NORTH OF THE ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION. TC 02B IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY TRACK POLEWARD FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT. AFTER TAU 24, THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING POLEWARD AND INTERACT WITH AN APPROACHING TROUGH. TC 02B IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD AND DISSIPATE AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 161800Z6 IS 16 FEET. REFER TO WWIO31 PHNC FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 170900Z7 AND 172100Z1.//

INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT
http://www.imd.ernet.in/section/nhac/dynamic/severe.htm

CYCLONE WARNING

TROPICAL STORM ADVISORY NO. FOURTEEN BASED ON 1800 UTC CHARTS OF 16 JANUARY 2005. THE CYCLONIC STORM OVER CENTRAL PARTS OF THE SOUTH BAY OF BENGAL AND ADJOINING NORTH INDIAN OCEAN, REMAINED PRACTICALLY STATIONARY. SYSTEM CENTRE IS POORLY DEFINED AND LAY CENTRED AT 161800 UTC NEAR LATITUDE 5.5 DEG. NORTH AND LONGITUDE 86.5 DEG. EAST. CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDED MODERATE TO INTENSE CONVECTION AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE. CURRENT INTENSITY T2.5 REPEAT T2.5. ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 hPa. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WIND 35 KT GUSTING TO 45 KT AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE. FORECAST : THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO MAINTAIN CURRENT INTENSITY AND MOVE SLOWLY IN A WEST-NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION FOR SOME TIME. SEA CONDITION WITHIN ONE DEGREE OF SYSTEM CENTRE LIKELY TO BE VERY ROUGH TO HIGH. FORECAST INTENSITY T 2.5 AT 171800 UTC.


SRI LANKA DEPARTMENT OF METEOROLOGY
http://www.meteo.slt.lk/wxfc.html

16 January 2005
The cyclonic storm in the Southwest Bay of Bengal still persists. It was centred about 500 kms to the southeast of Pottuvil coast at 1500 hours today (16th). Scattered showers accompanied by fairly strong winds at times are expected in the Eastern and Uva provinces and in Hambantota, Nuwaraeliya and Matale districts. Shipping and fishing communities are hereby advised to be vigilant on their activities in the sea areas off the coast extending from Trincomalee to Hambantota via Pottuvil as the seas may be fairly rough.

APCEDI will continue to monitor the progress of this tropical system. While APCEDI does not normally monitor cyclones in the Bay of Bengal, given AFAP's tsunami relief effort and that of many agencies in the region, APCEDI will continue to bring reports from this region, as warranted, for the next 6 months.

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator
http://www.afap.org/apcedi/

To donate to AFAP's Sri Lanka Appeal, go to http://www.afap.org

APCEDI ALERT BOBW Cyclone 02B #7, 2005: Cyclone 02B Slowly moves toward Sri Lanka; Watch raised for Andaman Islands

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center continues to issue alerts for Cyclone 02B, located 500 km east-southeast of Pottuvil. Cyclone 02B is currently moving west-south west at 2 kt with a general forecast trend slowly to the north and then northeast. The Sri Lanka and Indian Departments of Meteorology continues to issue advisories on this system as it develops. Associated convection with this system continues to bring intermittent showers to Batticaloa, Ampara and Hambantota Districts, and these are forecast to become more widespread and heavy in the next 24 hours over the East, Uva, North Northcentral and South Provinces. The intensity of rain and wind for Sri Lanka will depend on how close the cyclone comes toward the east coast before turning northeast toward the Andaman Islands and Burma.

All interests in Sri Lanka especially from Jaffna to Galle and around the Bay of Bengal should monitor the development of this tropical system. This is an increasingly serious situation that must be closely monitored by all Government and aid workers. All Government and aid workers, especially along the east and southern coast, should be prepared to help organise cyclone preparation activities for communities in which they are working should the situation warrant.

Given the northeastern turn that is forecast in the next 2-3 days, all interests in the Andaman Islands of India from Little Andaman northward should pay close attention to this storm. All interests in the Coco Islands and Irrawaddy Delta of Burma should also be on alert.

FROM JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER
http://www.npmoc.navy.mil/jtwc.html

160900Z6 POSITION NEAR 4.2N6 86.2E6. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02B, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 410 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF COLUMBO, SRI LANKA, HAS DRIFTED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 160530Z5 MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS FROM ALL AGENCIES. ANIMATED IMAGERY SHOWS MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND CYCLING CONVECTION OFFSET TO THE WEST OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. TC 02B IS FORECAST TO REMAIN RELATIVELY QUASI-STATIONARY FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT BALANCED BY A LOW TO MID LEVEL STEERING RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND WESTERLIES ALONG THE EQUATOR. TC 02B IS FORECAST TO BEGIN TRACKING POLEWARD AFTER 12 HOURS AS IT INTERACTS WITH A TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST AFTER TAU 24 AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO TRACK POLEWARD AND THE OUTFLOW IMPROVES. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 160600Z3 IS 17 FEET. REFER TO WWIO30 PHNC FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 161500Z3, 162100Z0, 170300Z1 AND 170900Z7.//

INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT
http://www.imd.ernet.in/section/nhac/dynamic/severe.htm

CYCLONE WARNING

TROPICAL STORM ADVISORY NO. NINE BASED ON 0600 UTC CHARTS OF 16 JANUARY 2005. THE CYCLONIC STORM OVER CENTRAL PARTS OF THE SOUTH BAY OF BENGAL AND ADJOINING NORTH INDIAN OCEAN, REMAINED PRACTICALLY STATIONARY AND LAY CENTRED AT 160600 UTC NEAR LATITUDE 5.5 DEG. NORTH AND LONGITUDE 86.5 DEG. EAST. CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MODERATE TO INTENSE CONVECTION AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE. CURRENT INTENSITY T2.5 REPEAT T2.5. ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 hPa. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WIND 35 KT GUSTING TO 45 KT AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE. FORECAST : THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO INTENSIFY FURTHER AND MOVE SLOWLY IN A WEST-NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION. SEA CONDITION WITHIN ONE DEGREE OF SYSTEM CENTRE LIKELY TO BE VERY ROUGH TO HIGH. FORECAST INTENSITY T 3.0 AT 170600 UTC.


SRI LANKA DEPARTMENT OF METEOROLOGY
http://www.meteo.slt.lk/wxfc.html

15 January 2005
The cyclonic storm in the Southwest Bay of Bengal still persists. It was centred about 550 kms to the southeast of Pottuvil coast at 1500 hours today (15th). This system is being monitored very closely and arrangements have been made to disseminate warnings and information to the public when required. Under the influence of this system, showers accompanied by fairly strong winds at times are expected in the Northern, Northcentral, Uva and Eastern provinces and in Hambantota, Nuwaraeliya and Matale districts. Shipping and fishing communities are hereby advised to be vigilant on their activities in the sea areas off the coast extending from Jaffna to Hambantota via Pottuvil as the seas may be rough at times. General public is also requested to refrain from going to sea particularly to the deep seas off eastern and southeastern coast of the island and watch for latest weather advisories from the Meteorological Department.

APCEDI will continue to monitor the progress of this tropical system. While APCEDI does not normally monitor cyclones in the Bay of Bengal, given AFAP's tsunami relief effort and that of many agencies in the region, APCEDI will continue to bring reports from this region, as warranted, for the next 6 months.

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator
http://www.afap.org/apcedi/

To donate to AFAP's Sri Lanka Appeal, go to http://www.afap.org

APCEDI ALERT EQ-SSEA #16, 2004: Series of Earthquakes and Tsunamis Devastate Wide Area of South and Southeast Asia

Updated Information and Death Tolls

Relief efforts are now in full gear throughout the affected areas. Death tolls have largely stabilised although tolls are still climbing in Aceh and Sri Lanka. The following updated figures are from five primary sources: OCHA, USAID, BBC, Agence France-Presse and the Indian Government. These figures reflect the averages being provided by the above sources.

Sumatra and off shore islands, 110,229 dead, 12,132 missing, 703,518 displaced. Aceh Province has about 98% of the casualties with Northern Sumatra Province with 2%. Relief efforts are now widespread and seem to be finally penetrating even the most remote areas.

Sri Lanka, 30,899 dead; 425,620 displaced persons, 16,665 injured, 6,034 missing, 100,000 houses destroyed (OCHA). Cyclones continue to threaten the east and southern coasts. The Joint Typhoon Warning Centre is issuing bulletins on a tropical depression off the southeast coast that could bring heavy winds. Highest casualty rates are from the East Coast cities of Trincomalee and Batticaloa and the South Coast cities of Hambantota and Galle. Affected Areas Map

INDIA, 10,714 dead; 5,669 missing, 638,297 initially displaced, 376,171 currently displaced in 595 relief camps ;
State figures as follows (Latest GOI figures):
Tamil Nadu; 7,968 dead, unknown number missing; 499,962 initially displaced, 309,379 currently displaced in relief camps; Chennai (Madras), Velankunni and Nagappattinam areas hardest hit,
Southern Andhra Pradesh, 105 dead, 11 missing, 34,264 initially displaced but all now returned; Krishna , Guntur , Prakasam and Nellore Districts hardest hit.
Pondicherry enclaves 591 dead, 75 missing, 70,000 initially displaced, 6100 currently displaced in 48 relief camps
Southern Kerala 171 dead; 0 missing, 24,978 displaced in 29 relief camps; Southern Districts including Kollam, Alleppy and Alappuzha Districts hardest hit.
Andaman and Nicobar Islands, India 1,879 dead, 5,583 missing presumed dead (4,286 of these are from Badly hit Katchal Island in the Nicobar Chain), 37,328 displaced in 106 relief camps; toll likely to rise as missing are not found; severe to catastrophic damage throughout island chains. Katchal, Car Nicobar, Pilmillow and Great Nicobar Islands particularly hard hit.

For a complete Summary on India, GOI Disaster Management Office

Thailand, 5,303 dead, 10,496 injured, 3,396 missing most casualties from Phuket and Phi Phi Islands and along the peninsular west coast including Krabi area. Especially hard hit on Phuket Island was the Khao Lak National Park area and surrounding beaches which had many resort hotels destroyed and also had many campers and more rustic style coastal hostels.

Burma, 53 dead officially; Current situation uncertain. The Government claims that 53 are dead, 21 missing, 43 injured and 3205 people are displaced from 17 devastated villages. Most damage in the Irrawaddy Delta and coastal towns of the Tenassarim Peninsula; 36 deaths reported in Pyinzalu Island near Labutta town and another 20 from the Thanintharyi Division in the peninsula.

Maldives 81 dead; 21 missing, 21,663 people displaced; damage throughout country.

Malaysia, 68 dead, 6 missing, 8,000 displaced; Most casualties in Penang and Coastal Kedah State in Northwest.

Bangladesh 2 dead; overall damage light.

Somalia 150 dead, 35 missing, 5,000 homeless with the majority of destruction along the Puntland Coast and on Hafun Island.

Madagascar Initial BBC reports of 100 dead or missing in the coastal city of Manakara, were not confirmed by the Government relief team. However, 1,200 people in Mankara are homeless. Sainte Marie, Sambava and Vohemar also had damage to coastal areas. Updates can be found from the Madagascar Tribune

Tanzania 10 dead.

Seychelles 3 dead.

Kenya 1 dead.

Very good updates on relief efforts can be found on UN's Relief Web.

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator
http://www.afap.org/
AFAP Appeal Hotline: 1-800-007-308

APCEDI ALERT BOBW Cyclone 02B #6, 2005: Cyclone 02B Slowly moves toward Sri Lanka

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center continues to issue alerts for Cyclone 02B, located 500 km east-southest of Hambantota. Cyclone 02B is currently moving west at 2 kt with a general forecast trend slowly to the northwest. The Sri Lanka Department of Meteorology continues to issue advisories on this system as it develops. Associated convection with this system continues to bring intermittent showers to Batticaloa, Ampara and Hambantota Districts, and these are forecast to become more widespread and heavy in the next 24 hours over the East, Uva, North Northcentral and South Provinces .

All interests in Sri Lanka especially from Jaffna to Galle and around the Bay of Bengal should monitor the development of this tropical system. This is an increasingly serious situation that must be closely monitored by all Government and aid workers. All Government and aid workers, especially along the east and southern coast, should be prepared to help organise cyclone preparation activities for communities in which they are working should the situation warrant.

FROM JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER
http://www.npmoc.navy.mil/jtwc.html

150900Z5 POSITION NEAR 5.1N6 86.3E7. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02B, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 400 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF COLUMBO, SRI LANKA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 150530Z4 MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND CYCLING DEEP CONVECTION OVER A WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. TC 02B IS FORECAST TO REMAIN RELATIVELY QUASI-STATIONARY FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT BALANCED BY A LOW TO MID LEVEL STEERING RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND WESTERLIES ALONG THE EQUATOR. TC 02B IS FORECAST TO BEGIN TRACKING MORE POLEWARD LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD AS IT INTERACTS WITH A TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. WEAK INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST AFTER TAU 48 AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO TRACK POLEWARD AND THE OUTFLOW IMPROVES. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 150600Z2 IS 17 FEET. REFER TO WWIO30 PHNC FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 151500Z2, 152100Z9, 160300Z0 AND 160900Z6.//


SRI LANKA DEPARTMENT OF METEOROLOGY
http://www.meteo.slt.lk/wxfc.html

15 January 2005
The cyclonic storm in the Southwest Bay of Bengal still persists. It was centred about 550 kms to the southeast of Pottuvil coast at 1500 hours today (15th). This system is being monitored very closely and arrangements have been made to disseminate warnings and information to the public when required. Under the influence of this system, showers accompanied by fairly strong winds at times are expected in the Northern, Northcentral, Uva and Eastern provinces and in Hambantota, Nuwaraeliya and Matale districts. Shipping and fishing communities are hereby advised to be vigilant on their activities in the sea areas off the coast extending from Jaffna to Hambantota via Pottuvil as the seas may be rough at times. General public is also requested to refrain from going to sea particularly to the deep seas off eastern and southeastern coast of the island and watch for latest weather advisories from the Meteorological Department.

APCEDI will continue to monitor the progress of this tropical system. While APCEDI does not normally monitor cyclones in the Bay of Bengal, given AFAP's tsunami relief effort and that of many agencies in the region, APCEDI will continue to bring reports from this region, as warranted, for the next 6 months.

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator
http://www.afap.org/apcedi/

To donate to AFAP's Sri Lanka Appeal, go to http://www.afap.org

APCEDI ALERT ETW(S2) #4, 2005: Weather Alert Cancelled for East Timor

The tropical depression responsible for the alert has moved rapidly west into the Indian Ocean and well out of range of East Timor and surrounding Indonesian islands. It is forecast to continue this westerly movement. Therefore, the on-going weather alert is now cancelled. This will be the last weather alert on this system unless it changes course and unexpectedly threatens the region.

To continue to monitor this system refer to the Tropical Cyclone Three Day Outlook for North West Australia of the Australian Government's Bureau of Meteorology.

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator
http://www.afap.org/

APCEDI ALERT BOBW Cyclone 02B #5, 2005: Cyclone Alert for Sri Lanka and Bay of Bengal

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center has issued its first alert for Cyclone 02B, located 600 km east-southest of Hambantota. Cyclone 02B is currently quasi-stationary with a general forecast trend slowly to the northwest. The Sri Lanka Department of Meteorology continues to issue advisories on this system as it develops. Associated convection with this system has started bringing intermittent showers to Batticaloa, Ampara and Hambantota Districts, and these are forecast to become more widespread and heavy in the next 24 hours over the East, Uva and South Provinces .

All interests in Sri Lanka especially from Jaffna to Galle and around the Bay of Bengal should monitor the development of this tropical system. This is an increasingly serious situation that must be closely monitored by all Government and aid workers. All Government and aid workers, especially along the east and southern coast, should be prepared to help organise cyclone preparation activities for communities in which they are working should the situation warrant.

FROM JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER
http://www.npmoc.navy.mil/jtwc.html

142100Z8 POSITION NEAR 5.0N5 87.0E5. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02B, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 440 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF COLUMBO, SRI LANKA, HAS REMAINED RELATIVELY QUASISTATIONARY WITH A MEASURED MOTION OF WEST NORTHWEST AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 141730Z6 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 AND 35 KNOTS. RECENT ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES TO PERSIST OVER A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH GOOD OUTFLOW EVIDENT IN THE POLEWARD DIRECTION. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO REMAIN QUASISTATIONARY FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT SITS IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT BALANCED BY A LOW TO MID LEVEL STEERING RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND WESTERLIES ALONG THE EQUATOR. TC 02B IS FORECAST TO BEGIN TRACKING POLEWARD LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD AS A MAJOR SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST OUT OF INDIA. TC 02B IS FORECASTED TO CONTINUE TO PULSE IN INTENSITY AS NEITHER THE FORECAST GUIDANCE NOR CLIMATOLOGY SUPPORTS ANY FURTHER INTENSIFICATION PAST WEAK TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH. THE APPROACH OF THE MAJOR SHORTWAVE TROF, LATE, WILL SEE SOME POTENTIAL FOR ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW THEREBY INCREASING THE INTENSITY BY 5 TO 10 KNOTS. THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE OF NOGAPS, UKMET AND WBAR ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF ALL OF THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL AIDS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 141800Z4 IS 12 FEET. REFER TO WWIO31 PHNC FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 141321ZJAN05 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTIO22 PGTW 141330). NEXT WARNINGS
AT 150300Z9, 150900Z5, 151500Z2 AND 152100Z9.//


SRI LANKA DEPARTMENT OF METEOROLOGY
http://www.meteo.slt.lk/wxfc.html

14 January 2005
The depression in the Southwest Bay of Bengal still persists. At 1600hrs it was located approximately 600 km to the east of Hambantota. It is likely to intensify slowly during the next 24 hrs. This system is being monitored very closely and arrangements have been made to disseminate warnings and information to the public when required. Shipping and fishing communities are hereby advised to be vigilant on their activities in the sea areas off the coast extending from Jaffna to Hambantota via Pottuvil and look for latest weather advisories from the Meteorological Department. Under the influence of the depression, cloudy skies are expected over most parts of the island tomorrow. Fairly strong winds, rains/thunderstorms are expected in the East, Uva and Southern provinces. The seas off the coast extending from Trincomalee to Galle via Hambantota will be fairly rough.

APCEDI will continue to monitor the progress of this tropical system. While APCEDI does not normally monitor cyclones in the Bay of Bengal, given AFAP's tsunami relief effort and that of many agencies in the region, APCEDI will continue to bring reports from this region, as warranted, for the next 6 months.

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator
http://www.afap.org/apcedi/

To donate to AFAP's Sri Lanka Appeal, go to http://www.afap.org

APCEDI ALERT BOBW (WTIO21) #4, 2005: Cyclone Formation Alert Continues for Sri Lanka and Bay of Bengal

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center continues to issue a Cyclone Formation Alert for the tropical depression southeast of Sri Lanka moving west-northwest toward the Sri Lanka coast. The Sri Lanka Department of Meteorology continues to issue advisories on this system as it develops. Associated convection with this system could start bring heavy rains onshore to Sri Lanka anywhere from Jaffna to Hambantota in the next 24 hours. All interests in Sri Lanka and around the Bay of Bengal should monitor the development of this tropical system. This is an increasingly serious situation that must be closely monitored by all Government and aid workers. All Government and aid workers, especially along the east and southern coast, should be prepared to help organise cyclone preparation activities for communities in which they are working should the situation warrant.

FROM JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER
http://www.npmoc.navy.mil/jtwc.html

ABIO10 PGTW 131800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN /131800Z-141800ZJAN2005//
REF/A/MSG/NAVPACTMETOCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/131321ZJAN2005//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.// RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 3.5N8, 84.7N9 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 5.4N9 88.0E6, APPROXIMATELY 490 NM EAST OF COLOMBO, SRI LANKA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS DEEP CONVECTION ORGANIZING NEAR AN IMPROVING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). RECENT MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE LLCC IS PARTIALLY EXPOSED JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE MAIN CONVECTION. 200 MB ANALYSIS INDICATES ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW POTENTIAL AND A LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS GOOD.

SRI LANKA DEPARTMENT OF METEOROLOGY
http://www.meteo.slt.lk/wxfc.html

14 January 2005
The depression in the Southwest Bay of Bengal still persists. At 1600hrs it was located approximately 600 km to the east of Hambantota. It is likely to intensify slowly during the next 24 hrs. This system is being monitored very closely and arrangements have been made to disseminate warnings and information to the public when required. Shipping and fishing communities are hereby advised to be vigilant on their activities in the sea areas off the coast extending from Jaffna to Hambantota via Pottuvil and look for latest weather advisories from the Meteorological Department. Under the influence of the depression, cloudy skies are expected over most parts of the island tomorrow. Fairly strong winds, rains/thunderstorms are expected in the East, Uva and Southern provinces. The seas off the coast extending from Trincomalee to Galle via Hambantota will be fairly rough.

APCEDI will continue to monitor the progress of this tropical system. While APCEDI does not normally monitor cyclones in the Bay of Bengal, given AFAP's tsunami relief effort and that of many agencies in the region, APCEDI will continue to bring reports from this region, as warranted, for the next 6 months.

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator
http://www.afap.org/apcedi/

To donate to AFAP's Sri Lanka Appeal, go to http://www.afap.org

APCEDI ALERT ETW(S2) #3, 2005: Weather Alert for East Timor

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center continues to monitor a tropical depression that has a fair potential to develop into a tropical cyclone. This system is located to the southwest of Timor Island and is forecast to continue to move west away from the region, but all interests in East Timor and adjacent Indonesian islands should still continue monitor the system carefully.

FROM JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER
http://www.npmoc.navy.mil/jtwc.html

ABIO10 PGTW 131800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
/OCEAN /131800Z-141800ZJAN2005//
REF/A/MSG/NAVPACTMETOCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/131321ZJAN2005//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.// RMKS/

2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 15.0S6, 123.5E1 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.7S2 123.5E1, APPROXIMATELY 90 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF YAMPI SOUND, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS THAT THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS MOVED OVER WATER WITH PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE LLCC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITH MODERATE DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. MAXIMUM SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS FAIR.//

FROM THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDW10800.shtml

IDW10800
BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
WESTERN AUSTRALIA REGIONAL OFFICE

TROPICAL CYCLONE OUTLOOK FOR NORTHWESTERN AUSTRALIA
Issued at 1:01pm WST on Friday the 14th of January 2005
For the area between LONGITUDES 110 - 129 EAST

Tropical Low off north Kimberley coast
Location at noon :near 13.3S 123.0E
about 525 kilometres [280 nautical miles] north of Broome
Central Pressure : 1002hPa
Recent movement : west at 10 kilometres per hour [6 knots]

DEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL
Saturday : Moderate
Sunday : High
Monday : High

REMARKS - The low is expected to continue moving westwards in the next few days and not affect the WA coastline. It is still possible that the low will develop further in the next few days.


APCEDI will continue to monitor the progress of this tropical system.

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator
http://www.afap.org/apcedi/

APCEDI ALERT BOBW (WTIO21) #3, 2005: Cyclone Formation Alert for Sri Lanka and Bay of Bengal

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center has now issued a Cyclone Formation Alert for the tropical depression between Sumatra and Sri Lanka moving west-northwest toward Sri Lanka. The Sri Lanka Department of Meteorology has also started issuing advisories on this system as it continues to develop. Associated convection with this system could start bring heavy rains onshore to Sri Lanka anywhere from Jaffna to Hambantota in the next 12-36 hours. All interests in Sri Lanka and around the Bay of Bengal should monitor the development of this tropical system. This is an increasingly serious situation that must be closely monitored by all Government and aid workers. All Government and aid workers, especially along the east and southern coast, should be prepared to help organise cyclone preparation activities for communities in which they are working should the situation warrant.

FROM JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER
http://www.npmoc.navy.mil/jtwc.html

WTIO21 PGTW 131330
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT/131321ZJAN2005// RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN A 200 NM RADIUS OF 5.9N4 87.1E6 WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 131130Z9 INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 5.9N4 87.1E6. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 4.2N6 89.5E2 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 3.5N8 84.7N9, APPROXIMATELY 350 NM SOUTHEAST OF COLOMBO, SRI LANKA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED OVER A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). SPIRAL BANDS ARE EVIDENT IN THE NORTHERN SECTION POINTING TO INCREASED ORGANIZATION AND CONSOLIDATION OF THE SYSTEM. ANALYSIS OF THE UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND A LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. DUE TO INCREASED ORGANIZATION, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS NOW UPGRADED TO GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 141330Z2.//


SRI LANKA DEPARTMENT OF METEOROLOGY
http://www.meteo.slt.lk/cityfc.html

A depression has formed in the South Bay of Bengal. It is about 650 km to the South East of Eastern coast of Sri Lanka by 1100 hours today the 13th. Department has made all the arrangement to monitor the system and disseminate any warning to the public and relevant authorities if required. At present, the shipping and fishing communities are advised to be vigilant on their activities in the sea areas off the coast extending from Jaffna to Hambantota and watch for latest weather advisories from Meteorological Department. Tomorrow, showers will occur at several places in the Eastern and Uva provinces and in Hambantota district.

APCEDI will continue to monitor the progress of this tropical system. While APCEDI does not normally monitor cyclones in the Bay of Bengal, given AFAP's tsunami relief effort and that of many agencies in the region, APCEDI will continue to bring reports from this region, as warranted, for the next 6 months.

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator
http://www.afap.org/apcedi/

To donate to AFAP's Sri Lanka Appeal, go to http://www.afap.org

APCEDI ALERT BOBW #2, 2005: Weather Alert for Bay of Bengal and Sri Lanka

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center is continuing to monitor a tropical depression between Sumatra and Sri Lanka that has a fair to good potential to develop into a tropical cyclone. The Sri Lanka Department of Meteorology has also started issuing advisories on this system as it continues to develop. Associated convection with this system could start bring heavy rains onshore to Sri Lanka anywhere from Jaffna to Hambantota in the next 12-36 hours. All interests in Sri Lanka and around the Bay of Bengal should monitor the development of this tropical system.

FROM JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER
http://www.npmoc.navy.mil/jtwc.html

ABIO10 PGTW 121800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN /121800Z-131800ZJAN2005//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 4.2N6, 89.5E2, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 5.0N5 89.8E5, APPROXIMATELY 590 NM EAST OF COLOMBO, SRI LANKA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFARED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS CYCLING DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). ANIMATED MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE DEVELOPMENT OF BANDING FEATURES INTO THE LARGE LLCC, HOWEVER THE LACK OF ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS EVIDENT. RECENT QUIKSCAT IMAGERY INDICATES THE PREVIOUSLY ELONGATED LLCC IS NOW CONSOLIDATING WITH HIGHER WINDS EVIDENT TO THE NORTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE LLCC. 200 MB ANALYSIS REVEALS FAVORABLE DIFFLUENCE AND WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE AREA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED AT 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS FAIR.//

SRI LANKA DEPARTMENT OF METEOROLOGY
http://www.meteo.slt.lk/cityfc.html

A depression has formed in the South Bay of Bengal. It is about 650 km to the South East of Eastern coast of Sri Lanka by 1100 hours today the 13th. Department has made all the arrangement to monitor the system and disseminate any warning to the public and relevant authorities if required. At present, the shipping and fishing communities are advised to be vigilant on their activities in the sea areas off the coast extending from Jaffna to Hambantota and watch for latest weather advisories from Meteorological Department. Tomorrow, showers will occur at several places in the Eastern and Uva provinces and in Hambantota district.

APCEDI will continue to monitor the progress of this tropical system. While APCEDI does not normally monitor cyclones in the Bay of Bengal, given AFAP's tsunami relief effort and that of many agencies in the region, APCEDI will continue to bring reports from this region, as warranted, for the next 6 months.

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator
http://www.afap.org/apcedi/

To donate to AFAP's Sri Lanka Appeal, go to http://www.afap.org

APCEDI ALERT ETW(S2) #2, 2005: Weather Alert for East Timor

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center continues to monitor a tropical depression that has a fair potential to develop into a tropical cyclone. This system is forecast to stay well south of East Timor, but all interests in East Timor and adjacent Indonesian islands should monitor the system carefully as it develops in the Timor Sea.

FROM JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER
http://www.npmoc.navy.mil/jtwc.html

ABIO10 PGTW 121800
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN /121800Z-131800ZJAN2005//

2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E9 WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:

(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.7S0, 128.7E8 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.0S5 127.0E0, OVER LAND NEAR KALUMBURU, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS CYCLIC DEEP CONVECTION OVER A WEAK, BUT DIFFICULT TO LOCATE, LLCC. RECENT MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A WEAK LLCC MAY BE LOCATED OVER LAND. 200 MB ANALYSIS REVEALS MODERATE DIFFLUENCE AND MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE AREA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED AT 1004 MB. DUE TO EXPECTED IMPROVED CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT AS THE LLCC MOVES OVER OPEN WATER IN THE NEXT 18 HOURS, THE POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS FAIR.


FROM THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/wrap_fwo.pl?IDDP0002.txt

TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 6
Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
at 5:00 pm CST [3:30 pm WST] Thursday 13 January 2005

The CYCLONE WATCH between KALUMBURU and KURI BAY in Western Australia has been
cancelled.

At 4:00 pm CST [2:30 pm WST] a TROPICAL LOW was centred in the Timor Sea about
80 kilometres west of TROUGHTON ISLAND and 150 kilometres west northwest of
KALUMBURU. The low is moving west at 15 kilometres per hour.

The low is moving away, and is no longer expected to produce gales on the coast.

Details of TROPICAL LOW at 4:00 pm CST [2:30 pm WST]:
. Centre located near...... 13.7 degrees South 125.4 degrees East
. Location accuracy........ within 90 kilometres
. Recent movement.......... towards the west at 15 km/h
. Central pressure......... 1001 hectoPascals

No further cyclone advices will be issued unless the situation changes.

This advice is available on telephone NT-1300 659 211 and WA-1300 659 210

DARWIN Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre


APCEDI will continue to monitor the progress of this tropical system.

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator
http://www.afap.org/apcedi/

APCEDI ALERT BOBW #1, 2005: Weather Alert for Bay of Bengal

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center is monitoring a tropical depression between Sumatra and Sri Lanka that has a fair potential to develop into a tropical cyclone. Associated convection with this system is bring rain showers to the Nicobar Islands and the islands off the northwest Aceh coast. All interests around the Bay of Bengal should monitor the development of this tropical system.

FROM JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER
http://www.npmoc.navy.mil/jtwc.html

ABIO10 PGTW 120200
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN REISSUED/120200Z-121800ZJAN2005//

(1) 1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 3.4N7, 89.2E9, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 4.2N6 89.5E2, APPROXIMATELY 595 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF COLOMBO, SRI LANKA. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CONSOLIDATION OF THE DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF CYCLONIC FLOW. RECENT QUIKSCAT IMAGERY INDICATES ENHANCED WESTERLIES EQUATORWARD OF AN ELONGATED CIRCULATION CENTER. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS FAVORABLE DIFFLUENCE AND WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE AREA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED AT 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS FAIR.//

APCEDI will continue to monitor the progress of this tropical system. While APCEDI does not normally monitor cyclones in the Bay of Bengal, given AFAP's tsunami relief effort and that of many agencies in the region, APCEDI will continue to bring reports from this region, as warranted, for the next 6 months.

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator
http://www.afap.org/apcedi/

To donate to AFAP's Sri Lanka Appeal, go to http://www.afap.org

APCEDI ALERT ETW(S2) #1, 2005: Weather Alert for East Timor

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center is monitoring a tropical depression that has a fair potential to develop into a tropical cyclone. This system is forecast to stay to the south of East Timor, but all interests in East Timor and adjacent Indonesian islands should monitor the system carefully as it develops in the Timor Sea.

FROM JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER
http://www.npmoc.navy.mil/jtwc.html

ABIO10 PGTW 120200
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN REISSUED/120200Z-121800ZJAN2005//

(1) AN AREA OF PERSISTENT CONVECTION HAS MOVED OVER WATER NEAR 12.7S0 128.7E8, APPROXIMATELY 130 NM WEST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY SHOWS CONSOLIDATION OF THE LOW LEVEL CLOUD LINES ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS FAVORABLE DIFFLUENCE BUT MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE AREA. WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE AS THE CIRCULATION TRACKS WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED AT 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS FAIR.//


FROM THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/wrap_fwo.pl?IDDP0002.txt

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 1
Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
at 11:11 am CST [9:41 am WST] Wednesday 12 January 2005

A CYCLONE WATCH has been declared for coastal and island communities between WYNDHAM and KURI BAY in Western Australia.

At 10:00 am CST [08:30 am WST] a TROPICAL LOW was centred in the Joseph Bonaparte Gulf about 170 kilometres northwest of PORT KEATS and 250 kilometres northeast of KALUMBURU. The low is moving northwest at 8 kilometres per hour but is expected to turn westwards later.

There is the possibility of a cyclone developing but GALES are not expected in coastal areas within the next 24 hours. However GALES may develop later on Thursday.

Details of TROPICAL LOW at 10:00 am CST [08:30 am WST]:
. Centre located near...... 13.0 degrees South 128.5 degrees East
. Location accuracy........ within 45 kilometres
. Recent movement.......... towards the northwest at 8 km/h
. Central pressure......... 1003 hectoPascals

People between WYNDHAM and KURI BAY in Western Australia should listen for the next advice which will be issued at 5:00 pm CST [3:30 pm WST]

This advice is available on telephone NT-1300 659 211 and WA-1300 659 210
DARWIN Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

APCEDI will continue to monitor the progress of this tropical system.

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator
http://www.afap.org/apcedi/

APCEDI ALERT Cyclone Kerry (05F) #13, 2005: Cyclone Kerry Dissipating in the Coral Sea

Cyclone Kerry continues to dissipate about 300 nm northwest of Grand Isle. The storm no longer poses an immediate threat to any land area and will likely continue to dissipate into an extratropical surface low. This will be the last APCEDI alert for this system unless it unexpectedly regenerates.

FROM JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER
http://www.npmoc.navy.mil/jtwc.html

120300Z6 POSITION NEAR 21.1S4 160.3E0.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08P (KERRY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 360 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 112330Z0 MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25, 35 AND 45 KNOTS. ANIMATED VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS VERY LITTLE DEEP CONVECTION AND COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS WRAPPED INTO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. TC 08P IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHWARD AND TO DISSIPATE WITHIN 12 HOURS IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND COOL, DRY AIR. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 120000Z3 IS 10 FEET. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.//

METEO FRANCE continues to issue Special Maritime Bulletins for the waters north and west of Grande Isle. Special attention should be paid to maritime interests in the Isles Suprises and Isles Chesterfields.

METEO FRANCE
http://www.meteo.nc/

WTNC01 NWBB 120244
A: BULLETIN METEOROLOGIQUE SPECIAL MARINE NUMERO 027.
B: AVIS DE TEMPETE REDIGE LE 12/01/05 A 02:30 UTC.
C: A 00:00 UTC LE 12/01/05, DEPRESSION TROPICALE FORTE "KERRY" :
- CENTREE PAR 20,9 SUD 160,0 EST. POSITION BONNE.
- PRESSION AU CENTRE ESTIMEE A 985 HPA.
- DEPLACEMENT SUD 04 NOEUDS.
D: VENTS MOYENS ESTIMES A 50 NOEUDS (RAFALES A 75 NOEUDS) DANS UN RAYON DE 20 NAUTIQUES AUTOUR DU CENTRE, MER TRES GROSSE. VENTS SUPERIEURS A 46 NOEUDS (RAFALES A 69 NOEUDS) DANS UN RAYON DE 30 NAUTIQUES AUTOUR DU CENTRE, MER TRES GROSSE. VENTS SUPERIEURS A 33 NOEUDS (RAFALES A 50 NOEUDS) DANS UN RAYON ENTRE 30 ET 120 NAUTIQUES DU CENTRE, MER GROSSE.
E: "KERRY" SE DEPLACE TRES LENTEMENT EN DIRECTION DU SUD.
F: POSITIONS PREVUES :
LE 12/01/05 A 0600 UTC : 21,2 SUD 160,1 EST.
LE 12/01/05 A 1200 UTC : 21,6 SUD 160,2 EST.
LE 12/01/05 A 1800 UTC : 21,9 SUD 159,9 EST.
LE 13/01/05 A 0000 UTC : 22,3 SUD 159,6 EST.

PROCHAIN BULLETIN SPECIAL MARINE LE 12/01/05 A 08:00 UTC.=

APCEDI will continue to monitor the progress of this tropical system.

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator
http://www.afap.org/apcedi/

APCEDI ALERT Tropical Cyclone 01B (WTIO21) #5, 2005: Tropical Cyclone 01B Dissipated

Tropical Cyclone O1B has now dissipated. Showers, some heavy, were common along the southeastern coastal Districts especially Hambantota and Ampara, but did not cause any significant flooding. Although the area is still getting gusty winds and heavy seas.

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center is issuing statements on another area of low pressure 475 nm east-southeast of Colombo. All interests in the eastern and southern Districts should monitor this system for possible development.

FROM JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER
http://www.npmoc.navy.mil/jtwc.html

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 4.8N2 87.7E2, APPROXIMATELY 475 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF COLOMBO, SRI LANKA. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF BROAD TROUGHING. EARLIER MICROWAVE IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES A BROAD TROUGH BUT NO CLEAR LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS FAVORABLE DIFFLUENCE AND WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE AREA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED AT 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.

APCEDI will continue to monitor the progress of this and other tropical systems in the Sri Lanka area.

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator

To donate to AFAP's Sri Lanka Appeal, go to http://www.afap.org

APCEDI ALERT Cyclone Kerry (05F) #12, 2005: Cyclone Kerry Forecast to Dissipate in the Coral Sea

Cyclone Kerry has rapidly lost strength over night and this morning. The Joint Typhoon Warning Center has forecast Cyclone Kerry to slowly meander southwest and then dissipate in the next 2-3 three days southwest of the Isle Chesterfields Group. Thus, the threat to Grand Isle and other main islands of Nouvelle Caledonie is now greatly reduced. Fortunately for Grande Isle, rain showers from the outer feeder bands are bringing some relief to drought-affected areas, and given Kerry's slow movement in the next few days, these showers are forecast to continue.

Although the threat from Cyclone Kerry is now greatly reduced, all interests in Nouvelle Caledonie should continue to monitor the progress of this storm, and residents of Norfolk Island should also keep a close watch.

FROM JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER
http://www.npmoc.navy.mil/jtwc.html

110300Z5 POSITION NEAR 19.3S3 159.0E5. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08P (KERRY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 450 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-WESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 102330Z9 MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 65 AND 102 KNOTS AND A SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING TREND NOTED IN SATELLITE IMAGERY. ANIMATED VISIBLE AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOW DEEP INFLOW OF COOL, DRY AIR INTO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER, WHICH IS PARTIALLY EXPOSED ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE WEAKENING DEEP CONVECTION. TC 08P IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL STEERING RIDGE ANCHORED SOUTH AND WEST OF THE SYSTEM. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN STEADILY AND DISSIPATE BY TAU 48 AS IT TRACKS INTO AN ENVIRONMENT OF HIGHER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND COOL, DRY AIR. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 110000Z2 IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 111500Z8 AND 120300Z6.//

METEO FRANCE continues to issue Special Maritime Bulletins for the waters north and west of Grande Isle. Special attention should be paid to maritime interests in the Isles Suprises and Isles Chesterfields.

METEO FRANCE
http://www.meteo.nc/

A: BULLETIN METEOROLOGIQUE SPECIAL MARINE NUMERO 023.
B: AVIS DE TEMPETE REDIGE LE 11/01/05 A 03:00 UTC.
C: A 00:00 UTC LE 11/01/05, DEPRESSION TROPICALE FORTE "KERRY" :
- CENTREE PAR 19,3 SUD 159,1 EST. POSITION MOYENNE.
- PRESSION AU CENTRE ESTIMEE A 975 HPA.
- DEPLACEMENT OUEST-NORD-OUEST 04 NOEUDS.
D: VENTS MOYENS ESTIMES A 60 NOEUDS (RAFALES A 90 NOEUDS) DANS UN RAYON DE 20 NAUTIQUES AUTOUR DU CENTRE, MER TRES GROSSE. VENTS SUPERIEURS A 46 NOEUDS (RAFALES A 69 NOEUDS) DANS UN RAYON DE 40 NAUTIQUES AUTOUR DU CENTRE, MER TRES GROSSE. VENTS SUPERIEURS A 33 NOEUDS (RAFALES A 50 NOEUDS) DANS UN RAYON ENTRE 40 ET 150 NAUTIQUES DU CENTRE, MER GROSSE.
E: DURANT CES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, "KERRY" S'EST DEPALCE TRES LENTEMENT EN SE COMBLANT UN PEU. IL DEVRAIT MAINTENANT SUIVRE UNE TRAJECTOIRE SUD-OUEST EN CONTINUANT A S'AFFAIBLIR.
F: POSITIONS PREVUES :
LE 11/01/05 A 0600 UTC : 19,5 SUD 159,0 EST.
LE 11/01/05 A 1200 UTC : 19,9 SUD 158,9 EST.
LE 11/01/05 A 1800 UTC : 20,3 SUD 158,8 EST.
LE 12/01/05 A 0000 UTC : 20,7 SUD 158,7 EST.
LE 12/01/05 A 0600 UTC : 21,1 SUD 158,5 EST.
LE 12/01/05 A 1200 UTC : 21,5 SUD 158,2 EST.
PROCHAIN BULLETIN SPECIAL MARINE LE 11/01/05 A 09:00 UTC.=


APCEDI will continue to monitor the progress of this tropical system.

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator
http://www.afap.org/apcedi/

APCEDI ALERT Tropical Cyclone 01B (WTIO21) #4, 2005: Tropical Cyclone 01B to Move Onshore in Southeast Sri Lanka

Tropical Cyclone O1B has further weakened, and its remnants are now forecast by the JTWC to come ashore in Ampara District, where it will likely dissipate in the eastern hill region. Heavy rains and gusty winds will be felt throughout Southern, Central and Eastern Sri Lanka although the worst affected areas will be Ampara, Batticaloa, Hambantota, Matara and Monaragala Districts. Coastal and inland flooding can be expected anywhere in these districts. Flash flooding could occur in the hill areas of Monaragala District and other highland districts.

All tsunami relief personnel should monitor the situation with this storm and take necessary measures for themselves and their communities in which they are working. Authorities in low-lying and flood-prone coastal areas should monitor the situation very carefully and be prepared to move people to higher ground if conditions warrant.

Cyclone 01B should dissipate in 24-48 hours and is no longer expected to be a threat to southern India.

FROM JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER
http://www.npmoc.navy.mil/jtwc.html

100900Z0 POSITION NEAR 6.8N4 83.1E2. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01B, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 200 NM EAST OF COLOMBO, SRI LANKA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 100530Z9 MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 20 KNOTS. TC 01B HAS WEAKENED EXTENSIVELY OVER THE PAST 06 TO 12 HOURS. THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS BECOME VERY DIFFICULT TO LOCATE. A 100031Z5 QUIKSCAT INDICATES THE LLCC HAS DISSIPATED AND ANOTHER BROAD CIRCULATION HAS ESTABLISHED ITSELF NEAR 05.0N5 89.0E7. RECENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS IN THE BAY OF BENGAL VERIFY WEAK WINDS OVER SRI LANKA AND A BROAD CIRCULATION IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAY OF BENGAL. A 100131Z6 SSMI PASS REVEALS THE CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED OVER TC 01B HAS DISSIPATED AND ANOTHER AREA OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE BROAD LLCC HAS RECENTLY FLARED. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100600Z7 IS 14 FEET. REFER TO WWIO31 PHNC FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.//

APCEDI will continue to monitor the progress of this tropical system.

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator

To donate to AFAP's Sri Lanka Appeal, go to http://www.afap.org

APCEDI ALERT Cyclone Kerry (05F) #11, 2005: Cyclone Kerry Forecast to Recurve Back toward Nouvelle Caledonie

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center has forecast that Cyclone Kerry will begin recurving tonight toward the south-southeast back toward Nouvelle Caledonie. On the current JTWC forecast track the centre of Cyclone Kerry would pass over the Chesterfields Group and then parallel the west coast of the Grand Isle about 300 nm off shore as a strong Category 2 cyclone. This is far enough off shore that damage on Grande Isle should be minimal, but much of New Caledonia would receive badly needed rains. Nouvelle Caledonie has been plagued with drought and forest fires for over 5 months.

All interests in Nouvelle Caledonie should monitor the progress of this storm carefully and be prepared to take precautions as advised by the Government should the storm approach. Residents of Norfolk Island should also keep a close watch.

FROM JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER
http://www.npmoc.navy.mil/jtwc.html

100300Z4 POSITION NEAR 18.3S2 158.8E2. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08P (KERRY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 500 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 092330Z7 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 90 AND 102 KNOTS. TC 08P IS QUASI-STATIONARY IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK POLEWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE EAST OF THE SYSTEM. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100000Z1 IS 38 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 101500Z7 AND 110300Z5.//

METEO FRANCE continues to issue Special Maritime Bulletins for the waters north and west of Grande Isle. Special attention should be paid to maritime interests in the Isles Suprises and Isles Chesterfields.

METEO FRANCE
http://www.meteo.nc/

A: BULLETIN METEOROLOGIQUE SPECIAL MARINE NUMERO 019.
B: AVIS DE CYCLONE REDIGE LE 10/01/05 A 02:40 UTC.
C: A 00:00 UTC LE 10/01/05, CYCLONE TROPICAL "KERRY" :
- CENTRE PAR 18,3 SUD 159,0 EST. POSITION BONNE.
- PRESSION AU CENTRE ESTIMEE A 960 HPA.
- DEPLACEMENT OUEST 03 NOEUDS.
D: VENTS MOYENS ESTIMES A 75 NOEUDS (RAFALES A 110 NOEUDS) DANS UN RAYON DE 10 NAUTIQUES AUTOUR DU CENTRE, MER ENORME. VENTS SUPERIEURS A 63 NOEUDS (RAFALES A 100 NOEUDS) DANS UN RAYON DE 20 NAUTIQUES AUTOUR DU CENTRE, MER ENORME. VENTS SUPERIEURS A 46 NOEUDS (RAFALES A 70 NOEUDS) DANS UN RAYON ENTRE 20 ET 60 NAUTIQUES DU CENTRE, MER TRES GROSSE. VENTS SUPERIEURS A 33 NOEUDS (RAFALES A 50 NOEUDS) DANS UN RAYON ENTRE 60 ET 150 NAUTIQUES DU CENTRE, MER GROSSE.
E: "KERRY" DEVRAIT DESORMAIS S'ELOIGNER VERS L'OUEST S'ACCELERANT UN PEU SON DEPLACEMENT.
F: POSITIONS PREVUES :
LE 10/01/05 A 0600 UTC : 18,4 SUD 158,8 EST.
LE 10/01/05 A 1200 UTC : 18,4 SUD 158,5 EST.
LE 10/01/05 A 1800 UTC : 18,4 SUD 158,2 EST.
LE 11/01/05 A 0000 UTC : 18,4 SUD 157,8 EST.
PROCHAIN BULLETIN SPECIAL MARINE LE 10/01/05 A 08:00 UTC. =

APCEDI will continue to monitor the progress of this tropical system.

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator
http://www.afap.org/apcedi/

APCEDI ALERT Tropical Cyclone 01B (WTIO21) #3, 2005: Tropical Cyclone 01B Stalls Off Sri Lanka

Tropical Cyclone O1B has stalled off the southeast coast of Sri Lanka. Although this is a minimal strength cyclone, given the past tsunami damage along with recent flooding, this is an extremely serious situation. Given that its moving slowly and erratically, much of southern and eastern Sri Lanka could receive very heavy rain causing widespread coastal and inland flooding. Tidal surge flooding is also possible. This will be accompanied by heavy seas and strong, gusty winds. Heavy rainfall continues to affect hard-hit Ampara and Hambantota Districts and will continue across much of Southern Sri Lanka today and tomorrow.

All tsunami relief personnel should monitor the situation with this storm and take necessary measures for themselves and their communities in which they are working. Amapara, Hambantota, Matara, Galle and Kalutara Districts are particularly at risk although all Southern and Eastern areas should be on alert. Highland Districts should also be on alert for flash flooding in hill areas.

Once the storm moves across Southern Sri Lanka, it could pose a threat to both Tamil Nadu and Kerala States in India further complicating relief efforts there.

FROM JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER
http://www.npmoc.navy.mil/jtwc.html

REMARKS:
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01B, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 210 NM EAST OF COLOMBO, SRI LANKA, HAS TRACKED NORTH NORTHEASTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 091730Z0 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25 KNOTS. RECENT MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS DISORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION OVER A DIFFICULT TO LOCATE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE SYSTEM IS VERY WEAK AND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE WEAKENING. THE SYSTEM REMAINS IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT AND IS FORECAST TO PERSIST POLEWARD BEFORE TRACKING WESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE BUILDING FROM THE WEST. SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 091800Z8 IS 9 FEET. REFER TO WWPWIO31 PHNC FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 100300Z4, 100900Z0, 101500Z7 AND 102100Z4.//

APCEDI will continue to monitor the progress of this tropical system.

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator
http://www.afap.org/apcedi/

APCEDI ALERT Cyclone Kerry (05F) #10, 2005: Cyclone Kerry Slow Moving In Coral Sea

Cyclone Kerry remains largely stationary to very slow moving in the Coral Sea northwest of New Caledonia and south of Rennell in the Solomons in the area of the New Caledonia outliers of the Isles Suprises and Isles Chesterfields. It remains a Category 2 storm. It is forecast to move very slowly westward over the next 24 hours. If it does stall in the Coral Sea and either doubles back or recurves, it could still be a threat to New Caledonia, Vanuatu or even the southern Solomon outliers of Rennell and Bellona. Also some later models are showing a turn to the northwest so Interests in Milne Bay Province of Papua New Guinea should monitor the progress of this cyclone.

Therefore interests in Solomons, Vanuatu, PNG and New Caledonia and maritime interests in the Coral Sea should continue to monitor this cyclone for any change in its course in the next few days.

FROM JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER
http://www.npmoc.navy.mil/jtwc.html

090300Z2 POSITION NEAR 18.3S2 159.1E6. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08P (KERRY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 295 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF POUM, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 082330Z6 MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 65 AND 77 KNOTS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEAL A 11 NM RAGGED EYE FEATURE. TC 08P IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST. TRACK IS FORECAST TO REMAIN SLOW AS THE STEERING ENVIRONMENT REMAINS SOMEWHAT WEAK. TC 08P IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY IN AN UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT OF WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR INCREASED OUTFLOW IN THE POLEWARD DIRECTION. MODEL DEPICTED STEERING ENVIRONMENTS ARE IN VERY POOR AGREEMENT AMONG THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, WITH 3 CLUSTERS REMAINING. UKMET EGRR AND NCEP GFS STEERING THE SYSTEM NORTHWEST, TOWARD THE EQUATOR, WITH THE PRIMARY STEERING INFLUENCE ALTERING TO THE RIDGE WEST OF THE SYSTEM. GFDN CONTINUES TO INDICATE A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT BETWEEN THE TWO RIDGES THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. NOGAPS TRACKS THE SYSTEM POLEWARD, ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE TO THE EAST WITH INCREASING TRACK SPEED AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF ALL THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS WITH CONSIDERATION OF THE WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090000Z9 IS 33 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 091500Z5 AND 100300Z4.//

APCEDI will continue to monitor the progress of this tropical system.

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator
http://www.afap.org/apcedi/

APCEDI ALERT Tropical Cyclone 01B (WTIO21) #2, 2005: Tropical Cyclone Bearing Down on Sri Lanka

Tropical Cyclone O1B has formed off the southeast coast of Sri Lanka. This is a minimal strength cyclone, but given the past tsunami damage along with recent flooding, this is an extremely serious situation. Given that its moving slowly and erratically much of southern and eastern Sri Lanka could receive very heavy rain causing widespread coastal and inland flooding. Tidal surge flooding is also possible. This will be accompanied by heavy seas and strong, gusty winds. Heavy rainfall is occurring in hard-hit Ampara District and will continue across much of Southern Sri Lanka today and tomorrow.

All tsunami relief personnel should monitor the situation with this storm and take necessary measures for themselves and their communities in which they are working.

Once the storm moves across Southern Sril Lanka, it could pose a threat to both Tamil Nadu and Kerala States in India further complicating relief efforts there.

FROM JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER
http://www.npmoc.navy.mil/jtwc.html

REMARKS:
082100Z1 POSITION NEAR 5.3N8 83.7E8. ROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01B, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 240 NM EAST- SOUTHEAST OF COLOMBO, SRI LANKA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 081730Z9 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25 KNOTS AND A RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED AND WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS THAT THE DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS CYCLIC AND SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE, DIFFICULT TO LOCATE, LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE LLCC IS NOT READILY APPARENT IN RECENT MICROWAVE SATELLITE PASSES. DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS, TC 01B IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO SLOWLY CONSOLIDATE AS IT TRACKS IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT, ALTERING TO A WESTWARD TRACK BY THE MID-PERIOD. AFTERWARDS, THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO COME UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE TO THE NORTHWEST. SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION IS NOT FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS AND INTERACTION WITH LAND WILL ADVERSELY AFFECT INTENSIFICATION IN THE LATE PERIOD. DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, NCEP GFS AND UKMET EGRR ARE IN POOR AGREEMENT, WITH WIDE VARIATION IN THE EXTENT OF THE CONSOLIDATION AND THE RESULTING STEERING INFLUENCES. TWO ALTERNATE SCENARIOS EXIST BASED ON THESE MODELS, WITH AN EASTWARD TRACK AS A VERY WEAK SYSTEM UNTIL THE MID-PERIOD IN NOGAPS AND, ALTERNATELY, A WESTWARD TURN EARLIER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD AS DEMONSTRATED IN NCEP GFS. DUE TO THE WIDE VARIATION IN ALL AVAILABLE AIDS, CONFIDENCE IN THIS INITIAL FORECAST IS ONLY MODERATE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081800Z7 IS 09 FEET. REFER TO WWIO31 PHNC FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 072300Z JAN 05 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTIO21 PGTW 072251) NEXT WARNINGS AT 090300Z2, 090900Z8, 091500Z5 AND 092100Z2.//

APCEDI will continue to monitor the progress of this tropical system.

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator
http://www.afap.org/apcedi/

APCEDI ALERT Cyclone Kerry (05F) #9, 2005: Cyclone Kerry In Coral Sea

Cyclone Kerry moved into the Coral Sea northwest of New Caledonia and Southeast of Rennell Island In the Solomons. It has strengthened rapidly in the last 24 hours into a Category 2 Cyclone and is moving west at 13 kts towards the Queensland Coast. It is currently not threatening any inhabited land or island areas. However, forecasters at the joint typhoon warning centre are expecting the storm to slow in the next few days and then possibly recurve south. If it does stall in the Coral Sea and either doubles back or recurves, it could still be a threat to New Caledonia, Vanuatu or even the southern Solomon outliers of Rennell and Bellona.

Therefore interests in Solomons, Vanuatu and New Caledonia should continue to monitor this cyclone for any change in its course in the next few days.

FROM JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER
http://www.npmoc.navy.mil/jtwc.html

080300Z1 POSITION NEAR 17.9S7 160.2E9. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08P (KERRY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 425 NM NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 072330Z5 MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45, 65, AND 75 KNOTS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY WITH INCREASED POLEWARD OUTFLOW. A 072140Z4 SSMI PASS AT 85 GHZ DEPICTS A SYMMETRICAL, CLOUD FILLED EYE. TC 08P IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED TO THE SOUTHEAST AND TO SLOW DOWN TO NEAR QUASISTATIONARY AS IT ENCOUNTERS A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT. TC 08P IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY IN A FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT OF WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR AND OUTFLOW IN THE POLEWARD DIRECTION. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, UKMET, GFDN, TCLAPS, AFWA MM5, WBAR AND NCEP GFS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. MM5 IS A SIGNFICANT POLEWARD OUTLIER RELATIVE TO THE OTHER MODELS. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE AVAILABLE MODELS WITH LESS EMPHASIS ON MM5. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 080000Z8 IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 081500Z4 AND 090300Z2.//

APCEDI will continue to monitor the progress of this tropical system.

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator
http://www.afap.org/apcedi/

APCEDI ALERT Tropical WTIO21 #1, 2005: Tropical Storm Forming off Sri Lanka

The Joint Typhoon Warning Centre has issued a Cyclone Formation Alert WTIO21 for a Tropical Depression off the Southeast Coast of Sri Lanka. Normally this would not merit an APCEDI Alert. However, given the critical situation with the tsunami and recent floods, this small tropical storm could greatly affect tsunami relief efforts especially in southern areas of Sri Lanka. Already bands of heavy rains are moving into hard hit Ampara District. This could result in widespread coastal and inland flooding from Batticaloa though to Galle.

All tsunami relief personnel should monitor the situation with this storm and take necessary measures for themselves and their communities in which they are working.

FROM JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER
http://www.npmoc.navy.mil/jtwc.html

WTIO21 PGTW 072300 MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 072300Z JAN 05//RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 85 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 3.0N3 85.5E8 TO 4.8N2 82.6E6 WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 072130Z3 INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 3.5N8 84.7E9. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 3.7N0 84.7E9 IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 3.5N8 84.7N9, APPROXIMATELY 350 NM SOUTHEAST OF COLOMBO, SRI LANKA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES TO PERSIST OVER A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). SPIRAL BANDS ARE BECOMING EVIDENT POINTING TO INCREASED ORGANIZATION AND CONSOLIDATION OF THE SYSTEM. ANALYSIS OF THE UPPER LEVELS REVEALS THAT THE SYSTEM IS EQUATORWARD OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS IN A FAVORABLE REGION OF WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR AND ADEQUATE OUTFLOW IN THE POLEWARD DIRECTION. HOWEVER, MARGINAL VERTICAL SHEAR CONDITIONS STILL EXISTS JUST WEST OF THE FEATURE. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. DUE TO INCREASED ORGANIZATION, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS NOW UPGRADED TO GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 082251Z8.//


APCEDI will continue to monitor the progress of this tropical system.

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator
http://www.afap.org/apcedi/

APCEDI ALERT EQ-SSEA #15, 2004: Series of Earthquakes and Tsunamis Devastate Wide Area of South and Southeast Asia

Updated Information and Death Tolls

Relief efforts are now in full gear throughout the affected areas. Death tolls continue to climb, but seem to be stabilising in many areas. The exception seems to be the Andaman and Nicobar Islands, where the toll of missing people has been increasing significantly. The following updated figures are from five primary sources: OCHA, USAID, BBC, Agence France-Presse and the Indian Government. These figures reflect the averages being provided by the above sources.

Sumatra and off shore islands, 94,081 dead, 6,700 missing, The official death toll has not risen for a few days but thought to be higher. Aceh Province has about 94% of the casualties with Northern Sumatra Province with 6%. Relief efforts are now widespread and seem to be finally penetrating even the most remote areas.

Sri Lanka, 30,615 dead; 876,883 displaced persons, 16,665 injured, 4,356 missing, 100,000 houses destroyed (OCHA). Widespread flooding of low lying areas in the east continues as storms continue to affect area. The Joint Typhoon Warning Centre is issuing bulletins on a tropical depression off the southeast coast that could bring heavy winds. Highest casualty rates are from the East Coast cities of Trincomalee and Batticaloa and the South Coast cities of Hambantota and Galle. Affected Areas Map

INDIA, 9,691 dead; 6.011 missing, 638,297 initially displaced, 379,630 currently displaced in relief camps ;
State figures as follows (Latest GOI figures):
Tamil Nadu; 9,697 dead, unknown number missing; 499,962 initially displaced, 309,379 currently displaced in relief camps; Chennai (Madras), Velankunni and Nagappattinam areas hardest hit,
Southern Andhra Pradesh, 105 dead, 11 missing, 34,264 initially displaced but all now returned; Krishna , Guntur , Prakasam and Nellore Districts hardest hit.
Pondicherry enclaves 583 dead, 86 missing, 70,000 initially displaced, 6550 currently displaced in relief camps
Southern Kerala 170 dead; 0 missing, 22,474 displaced in relief camps; Southern Districts including Kollam, Alleppy and Alappuzha Districts hardest hit.
Andaman and Nicobar Islands, India 901 dead, 5,914 missing presumed dead (4,657 of these are from Badly hit Katchal Island in the Nicobar Chain), 41,227 displaced in relief camps; toll likely to rise as missing are not found; severe to catastrophic damage throughout island chains. Katchal, Car Nicobar, Pilmillow and Great Nicobar Islands particularly hard hit.

For a complete Summary on India, GOI Disaster Management Office

Thailand, 5,288 dead, 10,496 injured, 3,810 missing most casualties from Phuket and Phi Phi Islands and along the peninsular west coast including Krabi area. Especially hard hit on Phuket Island was the Khao Lak National Park area and surrounding beaches which had many resort hotels destroyed and also had many campers and more rustic style coastal hostels.

Burma, 59 dead officially; Current situation uncertain. On January 2nd the Government claimed that 53 are dead, 21 missing, 43 injured and 778 people are homeless from 17 devastated villages. However January 4th, the World Food Program estimated a death toll in the hundreds. Most damage in the Irrawaddy Delta and coastal towns of the Tenassarim Peninsula; 36 deaths reported in Pyinzalu Island near Labutta town and another 20 from the Thanintharyi Division in the peninsula. AFP and UNICEF claims that there is widespread damage on the Co Co Islands but the Burmese Government is denying this. Despite the Government issuing new figures today, many scientists and aid groups are now claiming the state of devastation in affected areas is far greater than being admitted. They are pressing the Burmese Government for full details.

Maldives 82 dead; 26 missing, 13,311 people displaced; damage throughout country.

Malaysia, 68 dead, 6 missing, 8,000 displaced; Most casualties in Penang and Coastal Kedah State in Northwest.

Bangladesh 2 dead; overall damage light.

Somalia 298 dead, 35 missing, 50,000 homeless with the majority of destruction along the Puntland Coast and on Hafun Island.

Madagascar Initial BBC reports of 100 dead or missing in the coastal city of Manakara, were not confirmed by the Government relief team. However, 1,200 people in Mankara are homeless. Sainte Marie, Sambava and Vohemar also had damage to coastal areas. Updates can be found from the Madagascar Tribune

Tanzania 10 dead.

Seychelles 3 dead.

Kenya 1 dead.

Very good updates on relief efforts can be found on UN's Relief Web.

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator
http://www.afap.org/
AFAP Appeal Hotline: 1-800-007-308

APCEDI ALERT Tropical Storm Kerry (05F) #8, 2005: Tropical Storm Kerry Exits Vanuatu

Tropical Storm Kerry picked up forward speed this morning and afternoon, and the centre has just passed across Vanuatu and exited just off the southwest Malakula Coast. Given the intensity and speed of the system, minimal damage is expected although isolated pockets of damage may have occurred to gardens, crops and bush houses.

APCEDI's Cyclone Watcher in Nduindui, Ambae, just north of where the centre passed, reported very heavy rains and gust for 3-4 hours early in the morning, but since late morning the weather has been improving although it is still gusty. He reports no damage other than lots of leaves and small branches down. This should be typical of what occurred throughout the affected islands. Spiral bands with occasional heavy showers and gusty winds can still be expected over the next 24 hours anywhere in North and Central Vanuatu.

The Fiji Meteorological Service continues to give Special Advisories on Vanuatu. All warnings for Fiji have now been discontinued.

FROM FIJI METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE
http://www.met.gov.fj/

Special Advisory Number TEN for Vanuatu on TC KERRY issued from RSMC NADI
Jan 07/0200 UTC 2005 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE KERRY CENTRE [990hPa] WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.4S 166.7E AT 070000 UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED ON GOES9 HRVIS IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION. CYCLONE CURRENTLY MOVING WEST SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 13 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 40 KNOTS INCREASING TO 60 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. WINDS ABOVE 33 KNOTS WITHIN 120 MILES OF CENTRE IN SOUTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE AND WITHIN 60 MILES OF CENTRE IN NORTHWESTERN SEMICIRCLE.

A CDO HAS DEVELOPED DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS ALTHOUGH MIDDLE LEVEL DRY AIR HAS MAINTAINED A CLEAR SLOT IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. A LARGE BANDING FEATURE PERSISTS TO THE EAST OF THE CDO. A WELL DEFINED LLCC IS EVIDENT ON 2154 UTC MICROWAVE IMAGE. SST AROUND 30C. CDO DIAMETER 1.2 DEGREES YIELDS DT 0F 3.0. PT AND MET ALSO 3.0. DVORAK ANALYSIS T3.0/3.0PLUS/W0.5/24HRS. TC KERRY IS MOVING WSW NORTH OF A DEEP SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. UPPER OUTFLOW RESTRICTED TO NORTH BY UPPER TROUGH, BUT ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR REMAINS LOW AS TC MOVEMENT IS PARALLEL TO UPPER WIND FLOW. TC KERRY IS EXPECTED TO REINTENSIFY AS IT MOVES FURTHER AWAY FROM THE VANUATU ISLAND GROUP AND CLOSER TO THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS. GLOBAL MODELS MAINTAIN WSW MOVEMENT FOR NEXT 24-36 HOURS.

FORECASTS :

AT 12 HRS VALID AT 071200 UTC 17.2S 164.0E MOV WSW AT 15 KT WITH 40 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

AT 24 HRS VALID AT 080000 UTC 18.2S 161.9E MOV WSW AT 10 KT WITH 60 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :

AT 36 HRS VALID AT 081200 UTC 18.6S 160.6E MOV WSW AT 5 KT WITH 60 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

AT 48 HRS VALID AT 090000 UTC 18.9S 159.9E MOV WSW AT 5 KT WITH 60 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

TC KERRY IS CURRENTLY MOVING AWAY FROM VANUATU. DAMAGING GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO EASE WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS ON MALEKULA AND NEARBY ISLANDS. HEAVY RAIN AND SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING. LOCAL FLOODING EXPECTED. DAMAGING HEAVY SWELLS EASING.

THIS WILL BE THE FINAL SPECIAL ADVISORY FOR VANUATU ON TC KERRY.//

________________________________________

METEO FRANCE has now started to issue Special Maritime Bulletins for the waters north of Grande Isle, New Caledonie. Special attention should be paid to maritime interests in the Isles Suprises and Isles Chesterfields.

METEO FRANCE
http://www.meteo.nc/

WWNC01 NWBB 070235
A: BULLETIN METEOROLOGIQUE SPECIAL MARINE NUMERO 006.
B: AVIS DE COUP DE VENT REDIGE LE 07/01/05 A 02:30 UTC.
C: A 00:00 UTC LE 07/01/05, DEPRESSION TROPICALE MODEREE "KERRY" :
- CENTREE PAR 16,4 SUD 166,7 EST. POSITION MOYENNE.
- PRESSION AU CENTRE ESTIMEE A 990 HPA.
- DEPLACEMENT OUEST-SUD-OUEST 18 NOEUDS.
D: VENTS MOYENS ESTIMES A 40 NOEUDS (RAFALES A 60 NOEUDS) DANS UN RAYON DE 20 NAUTIQUES AUTOUR DU CENTRE, MER GROSSE. VENTS SUPERIEURS A 33 NOEUDS (RAFALES A 50 NOEUDS) DANS UN RAYON DE 120 NAUTIQUES AUTOUR DU CENTRE, MER GROSSE.
E: "KERRY" CONTINUE SA TRAJECTOIRE VERS SURPRISES. LA PRESSION AU CENTRE EST POUR LE MOMENT STATIONNAIRE.
F: POSITIONS PREVUES :
LE 07/01/05 A 0600 UTC : 16,9 SUD 165,7 EST.
LE 07/01/05 A 1200 UTC : 17,4 SUD 164,5 EST.
LE 07/01/05 A 1800 UTC : 17,7 SUD 163,3 EST.
LE 08/01/05 A 0000 UTC : 18,0 SUD 162,4 EST.
PROCHAIN BULLETIN SPECIAL MARINE LE 07/01/05 A 08:00 UTC.=

All people in Northern and Central Vanuatu should continue to monitor the progress of the storm as it exits the county. All concerns in New Caledonia should remain on alert and monitor the situation. However, it looks like the threat to the Pacific Islands is lessening and the threat to coastal Queensland now increasing.

APCEDI will continue to monitor the progress of this tropical system.

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator
http://www.afap.org/apcedi/